Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Quick Out the Gate

7-22-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Start out the post All Star Break schedule with a series win against the Phillies? Yeah, I’ll take that. As before the break, stack those series wins and you’ll look back on your season with a pretty good record.

There’s always room for better.

Far too often this time of year, we almost look past what the team is actually doing while we freak out about what might be added or subtracted from them in the next week or so.

Heck, I had a guy tell me yesterday that he hoped the team would resist the urge to add because he liked the team as they are and wanted to watch them grow together.

There are fans for every opinion, the point is, for every team that’s playing baseball on this competitive razor’s edge, deciding what to do or how to proceed is very much so coming to a head, Buccos included.

Lets do this!

1. This Team Can Hang

This series with the Phillies probably illustrated more than almost anything else could why just getting into the playoffs if you can is important.

The Pirates didn’t even throw their top choices at the Phils and they still managed to take 2 of 3. And from this, you should take note, nobody wants to see what the Pirates can do to them with their pitching staff in a short series. Phillies included, and they are one of the few teams that can on paper stand toe to toe with your Bucs on the starting slate.

Bottom line, there isn’t a series they should enter in which they look around that room and think “we don’t have a shot”.

Again, if you’re asking, is this Pirates team going to win the World Series, you’ll never catch me even waking up in a fever dream claiming it’s likely. All I’m suggesting is nobody is going to want to face them in the playoffs and this pitching makes them a very scary stumbling block potentially for one of the team’s with betting odds in their favor.

That’s all right now. Not wishful thinking for what they’ll trade for. I think that in and of itself is a very good sign that adding likely won’t be about recency bias, it’ll be about seeing a team like Philly frustrated.

They don’t have a juggernaut offense, hell they don’t even have a set rotation at the moment, but they do have a reputation that’s growing in MLB. If you play the Pirates in a 3 game set, you better show up all 3 games and bring your A game.

2. Well….We’re Waiting!

July 30th is coming. 8 Days from now we’ll be watching the trade deadline tracker and for once not be wondering which teams will be taking our All Stars for stretch runs.

Teams are starting to decide what they are. Your Pirates are likely too close to decide against adding something. Even a couple losses won’t drop them into sell territory, especially since they’re in a position where they might still sell off some rentals in the process of making room for additions. In other words, they’re kinda in position to do both, and have it make total sense.

I think the Pirates needs have solidified over the past few weeks. It wasn’t long ago first base would have been one of those spots, now, the only way they can target a first baseman is if the player has term that lasts into the next season at least.

Point is, they need an outfielder and honestly, that’s the list. I can’t see a starting pitcher, I don’t think you’ll find a catcher playing better than Joey Bart, it’d be real tough to upgrade Rowdy Tellez at this point, the infield in general is pretty set.

So with only 8 days left, here are my top targets for the Pittsburgh Pirates, and let me be clear, I don’t care what it takes. The team has a very short list of “untouchables”, and I’m simply not worried about anyone else.

CF/2B – Jazz Chisholm Jr. – Miami Marlins – The Marlins are going back to the drawing board, and part of the reason if you ask me is Jazz Chisholm has never really evolved into the star the league decided he was going to be before he got started. All the tools are there, all the talent in the world, but between injuries and periods of lack of focus, he’s simply never broken out of the cocoon. He won’t be cheap to acquire, but you get a player with all the tools to be a star, 2 more years of team control and a shot at him playing like a superstar for those 2 years. It’s a good fit for need, probably not the best fit for being comfortable you’ve made a great move.

CF – Luis Robert Jr. – Chicago White Sox – The White Sox are by far the worst team in baseball, and to almost nobody’s surprise, Luis Robert Jr. Spend a majority of the season on the IL, just like he does every season for the most part. Next year he makes 15 million dollars and then he has 2 club options for 20 million in 2026 and 2027. If he’s healthy, he’s easily the best bat on the board, if he isn’t he’s a 20 million dollar albatross that forces you to play an inferior player and pine for his return from the IL. He’s played more than 100 games exactly one time in his career. I’m not sure the price tag and his injury history will speak to anyone, but he’s certainly available.

OF – Lane Thomas – Washington Nationals – The Nationals aren’t really all that far behind the Pirates, and yet, they’re in a different place in their build. They’re probably a bit ahead of where they had themselves projected at this point, and I’d imagine they’re looking to create a landing spot for Dylan Crews to really try to pry this thing open in 2025. Thomas has another year of arbitration in 2025, and he’ll get north of 6 or 7 million I’d wager. There isn’t much that’s flashy about Lane, but he has power, hit 28 bombs in 2023, having a bit of a down year, but he still gets on base, fields well and would be an actual MLB starting OF should you acquire him.

DH/OF – Brent Rooker – Oakland A’s – The A’s are going to sell, they just aren’t going to sell like many front runners would like. In fact, I’m not convinced Rooker will be on the block, he has 3 more years of arbitration after this year, meaning he won’t reach free agency until 2028. He’s 29 right now, so think Connor Joe minus the glove, plus a ton of power. Late bloomer here. That certainly doesn’t disqualify him or make him a bad target, his lack of fielding acumen might though. Unless the A’s have missed something and Rooker is actually someone who fields better than they’ve acted like he could, chances are this is a tough fit, unless you’re willing to minimize Andrew McCutchen’s role, which frankly, perhaps you should be. This dude hit 30 homeruns in 2023, and he has 22 in only 86 games so far this year. The Power is real, the Strikeouts are too. This isn’t a perfect player, just sayin’ if you want pure offensive help, that’s what this is.

Out of all of these, I personally prefer Thomas, I think he’s probably the best combination of all of them. He can hit for power, he can field, he has some control and I don’t think he’ll cost what the other 3 will. There is no more “aggressive” timeline to find here, we’re 8 days out, from here on out, they’re just moves at the deadline. Every team in the league was stuck waiting for things to open up and just this weekend, some teams made it clear their decision has been made.

They could go with plenty of other players too, I just think these are seen as some of the best available. The Rays have some guys that are very interesting too, but this is enough to make the point, there aren’t perfect fits out there in my mind.

The store is open now, don’t be the dude who left your membership card at home.

3. Flex Seal

Have you ever seen the commercials for Flex Seal? They do weird stuff to show how great Flex Seal is, like cutting the bottom off a boat, replacing it with a screen door and covering it with their product to show it still floats.

They show how it keeps Hurricane water out, repairs a roof, you get it.

Let me just say this about this deadline, I don’t see any rolls of Flex Seal out there on the market. There aren’t any pieces that fix everything. There aren’t even groups of players that would, not for this team anyway.

I feel pretty confident despite Ben Cherington on his radio show yesterday saying they weren’t trying to limit themselves to a specific position for trade targets, that the Pirates real opportunities for upgrade are rather thin,

They don’t need starting pitching, which sounds weird to say, but it’s also undeniably true. They don’t really need relief pitching, but it never hurts to get one more.

They won’t replace 3B or 1B, middle infield with Cruz and Gonzales looks pretty locked in. Reynolds holds down an outfield spot for sure.

So they really need an outfielder, or two, but even that is kinda not genuine, they NEED 1, they COULD USE 2.

That’s it.

Now I’m not telling you that means I think the Pirates 3B, SS, 2B, 1B, C, SP, RP and one OF are all set in stone for future playoff teams, I’m just saying right now, it’s not likely they’d feel they could reasonably upgrade on the market.

Like, you could go get Elias Diaz for Catcher. He’s been better than Joey Bart, but is he so much better that you feel it’s a true upgrade? I’m not so sure, especially since it looks like Bart is poised to return in 2024 via Arbitration.

Can you upgrade 2B over Nick Gonzales? Yeah, you absolutely could but would you want to right when he’s starting to show traction at the MLB level? Could you upgrade over Cruz at SS? Sure, especially defensively, but let’s be real, that’s not why he plays there everyday is it?

Point is, you COULD upgrade just about anywhere, you just won’t see it for myriad reasons.

It’s a strange place to be. You have to let guys keep learning, so that next year they’re potentially even better, but you have a genuine want to upgrade your team this year.

Take a guy like Ke’Bryan Hayes, I could easily recommend that a rental 3B could provide you more than he will for this final stretch in 2024. So follow me here, I’m not saying move on from Hayes forever, just saying, let’s admit he’s not healthy and bench him with this dude we go get.

First, you have to find a guy who plays comparable defense, nobody will be as good, but you can’t create a problem. It can’t be a huge drop off. Then, you have to find a guy who can hit better, and specifically, better this year, better than injured Hayes. Say you find that guy, and he’s a rental.

You could make a move like that, thing is, the player probably doesn’t exist, it probably creates bad feelings with a guy you plan to be important next year, and at the end of the day, it’s probably a slight upgrade anyway by the time you factor in all aspects of the game.

I can slightly help my team in 2024, by potentially doing damage to my 2025 if I’m not careful with where I try to upgrade.

The truth is this team has room to add, but it’s very selective or specific. I could argue they should grab an outfielder with starting role pedigree and a Swiss army knife type, not unlike Connor Joe who covers some spots Joe can’t hack like 2B, 3B, OF, you know, what you’d dream Jared Triolo would develop into.

It’s certainly not a situation where you look around the diamond imagining all the places you could slip a new player in like a hot knife to butter.

Thing is, there isn’t just a one guy who fixes everything acquisition out there in my eyes. There are guys who could be, they just somehow never were for their teams, so to me it’s a stretch to think they could be here.

Maybe just pay to get the roof replaced this offseason instead of seeing if tape is enough this time.

4. The Starting Rotation

This thing is always going to be a topic because if for nothing else but wanting to know when Paul Skenes will pitch.

That said, I’m here to tell you, try not to get fixated on it because it’s going to change, and I mean weekly, maybe turn to turn for most of the rest of the season.

First up we have the trade deadline, and that for obvious reasons could change the makeup. Next up, we have injured members scheduled to come back, notably Jared Jones and Bailey Falter.

And then you have the fact that most of them have been fairly effective. Even Martin Perez has shown you just this season what he can do when he’s right.

The fact is, the Pirates are sitting on something you simply don’t see in this league very often. They have a plethora of starting pitching options, and even when they get deep, they don’t get less intriguing.

Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Marco Gonzales, Martin Perez, Luis Ortiz, Quinn Priester, Jared Jones, Bailey Falter, Braxton Ashcraft are the names on the list without stretching it in any way. I could go farther and probably find you a kid who could give you a good crack at a nice spot start, but I’ll refrain as I just don’t see it mattering, and if it did, the season is probably over.

When healthy, that’s 9 deep.

The team will use 5, 6, spot starts, bullpen games, skipped starts, basically they’ll use every piece of junk they got in the bag to get through this season and hopefully leave their 5 or 6 best with innings left to give at the end.

This is all tied to trying to win mind you. See, it was a huge topic entering the Phillies series that the Pirates weren’t putting their best foot forward by tossing Perez, Ortiz and Gonzales at them, and just because it worked, doesn’t mean you were wrong.

What I’m saying to you is, the effort to get Skenes, Keller, Jones, and whomever you feel is their 4 and 5 wishful thinking lineup come September/October, is real. It’s something they’re not only paying attention to, it’s something they’ve had to have in the back of their mind all season long. Every decision to let Skenes have one more inning. Every time they decided to let Mitch muscle through when he didn’t have it to still deliver 6. All of that is factored in to getting where they want to be with steam left over.

I expect them to mix and match, and shuffle and shift and shorten outings and all of that through this process.

That’s frustrating for fans, I totally get it. Hell, it’s frustrating for all of us here at Steel City Pirates, we get tired of writing TBD in our Series Previews too you know.

As a fan, I’m going to choose to deprioritize calling anyone “the five” until such a time as I know they’re on the other side of this and trying to solidify their preferred rotation later in September.

Should they drop out all together, you can expect their plans to change too. It would be a lot easier to just shut Jared Jones down in September as opposed to let him stretch himself a bit beyond where you wanted the rubber band to stretch, so if the team doesn’t ultimately keep themselves in this, how they handle this aspect will change too.

It might change how they finish, it won’t change how they try to get there.

Organized chaos my friends.

5. The Cardinals

For just about as long as I can remember, the Cardinals have been better than my Pirates. It’s a rivalry, but if I’m really honest, it’s a rivalry the way my Pitt Panthers are to Penn State or the Cleveland Browns are to the Steelers. Yeah, it’s a rivalry, but it’s an incredibly one sided rivalry.

For the first time in quite some time, both of these teams stand poised to add at the deadline, at least partially to get past each other in the standings. This series could have an effect on just how invested either of them will be.

The Cardinals front office know baseball, and they know looking at their roster it simply won’t be enough. I’m almost positive they didn’t expect to be in this position in 2024, but they are a proud franchise, and despite their pre-season expectations, they won’t ignore that they have an opportunity here, even if it’s smoke and mirrors.

The Pirates are prepared to add too, both for this year and beyond. To me, the Cardinals are likely looking for rentals. They still have some rather large exits they’re going to have to deal with in the offseason, and they still don’t have nearly enough close to helping to think they could just tread water.

The Pirates can be open to anything really, if a rental is there and it helps affordably, hey, why not, if a deal with term comes along, hey, it fits right into their wide open window.

It’s time for this group of Pirates players to put their foot down and start showing baseball, and indeed the Cardinals, it’s going to be different for a while. I’m thinking Paul Skenes foot will do well.

The Cardinals have always outpitched the Pirates, and finally after nearly a decade the Pirates have the upper hand and it’s time to be the reason this rival starts heading down the standings, instead of hoping the league will deal with them for you, go take it.

It’s the last time these teams will face each other constructed the way they are, both teams will change something and both will have an eye toward improvement when they do it. I’d like this Pirates team to show them in this series they have a lot of work to do to catch up at this deadline, not hold us off.

They’re still talented, but this isn’t the Cardinals we used to have no choice but to fear, it’s time to prove the logo isn’t mor important than talent.

Pittsburgh now has the more talented team, for this 3 game set, here’s hoping they play like it, it’s arguably the biggest series these teams have played since 2015.