Two Guys Talkin’ Trades

7-23-24 – By Justin Verno & Corey Shrader – @JV_PITT and @CoreyShrader on Twitter

Another Bat….man

Justin Verno-  The July Trade Deadline is crawling closer and closer, Corey. It will be here before we can say, “have you heard the latest rumor?”

Last week we tackled the idea of adding a OF (specifically CF). What’s on the agenda for this week?  Another bat.

Corey Shrader- The 2024 Pirates team is one of contradictions. On one hand, they’ve got second most quality starts and a top 5 pitching fWAR in the National League. And on the other hand, they’ve got a bottom 3 fWAR, wRC+, & wOBA as a team offense. 

The need to upgrade the offense is quite clear.

JV- With the Pirates sweeping the Chicago White Sox to end the first half, the Pirates find themselves just a game and a half out of a wild card spot. And with Paul Skenes, Jared Jones and Mitch Keller leading the way I am praying that Mr. Robert Nutting and General Manager Ben Cherington don’t let this opportunity slip through their hands. And I am not just talking about a possible Wild Card Playoff run, (well that too) but the larger part of what I am alluding to is wasting a prime chance to rally this town behind this team, this front office and hell, even behind this owner. 

The last time Mr. Nutting had a winner(a three year run) there seemed to be a “wait and see” mood for a good portion of the city. I would love to see GMBC jump into the pool with both feet and get all the oars in the water at the same time.

Last week we gave our best and built some deals to land an upgrade at CF. This week, we take a shot at adding one more bat. 

CS- So JV, I think we should approach this one as any position goes hitter addition kind of move. Obviously the team has some positions that will prove to be a more natural draw as a target, but I think having some leeway with where to search makes sense when the team just needs production writ large. What do you think?

JV- I love it. I think it shows that the Bucs will have some options on how to add a bat and some options on who to give up to get ‘er done. Last week you got the 1st up, mind if I step the plate first?

CS- Have the honors, JV, let’s get to it.

JV-  Before I get into my first package I have to admit, this is probably the toughest package to build. I looked at 100 different names(I didn’t count, but it’s likely close to that). Do I go rental? Prospect? A name already connected to the Bucs? 1B? C? OF? Corey, there are a lot of ways to go here. After grabbing a cold one from the fridge I think I have my guy ready to go. 

The Big Prize

Pirates get-

Isaac Paredes-3B/1B/SS/2B-MLB (SV $49M)

I get that Rowdy Tellez is finally hitting the ball, but he just doesn’t offer what the 25 year old Paredes offers. Paredes has a wRC+ of 138 on the season which follows his 137 wRC+ from 2023. The kid can hit, his best days are not behind him and with three years of control past this season he’s exactly what the kind of difference maker GMBC needs to be looking at. 

The big question here of course is, is he available? And I just don’t know. But Andy Martino of SNY is reporting that they will listen, so let’s have some fun here. The hard part is what could the Bucs give up to make this work.

Rays get-

Termarr Johnson-2B-ETA:2027 (FV 50 $28M)

This is the second time I’ve used the former 4th overall pick in a trade package. We should get used to hearing his name come up, and perhaps to the idea of the Bucs using him in a deal to add a proven controlled bat.

Thomas Harrington-SP-ETA:2026 (FV 45 $4M)

I hate giving up Harrington here. He has the look of an FV 50 prospect that could debut this year or early in 2026. When a prospect’s status is pointing north as they move through the upper levels is when my blood really gets flowing. The Bucs have pitching throughout the system and I imagine there are a few arms the Rays could find attractive, but Harrington gives the Rays the very thing they just love. To keep the ball rolling, this team retools in real time. We think they’re rebuilding but turns out they’re just fine tuning. 

Richard Ramirez- C-ETA:2029 (FV 40 $2M)

Pitching is this system’s deepest pool, with MIF coming in second. A distant third?  I’d say C, the Bucs aren’t knee deep here but With Endy getting healthy and names like Axiel Plaz, Omar Alfonzo, Garret Forster and Abraham Gutierrez in the mix, the Bucs have some nice options. 

Liover Peguero- 2B/SS-ETA:Debuted(FV hard to gage)

Tampa has the long term 3B replacement down at AAA, Junior Caminero. Peggy gives them the option of a 2B or SS. If the Rays want to move Lowe, cool. Options are nice to have!

This may seem a tad light. Admittedly I am betting on teams having a higher value on Harrington.

CS- Paredes, in my opinion is a little too risky of a target to surrender this much prospect capital on. While the production is difficult to argue with, the profile is scary. Much has been made of his near mythic ability to pull & lift the ball, that exact skillset is what makes him a dangerous proposition for the Bucs. 

His projected home run total if PNC were his home park is cut from 73 in the Trop all the way down to 43 at PNC. 

I fear that what makes Paredes special, may no longer make him special once he were to don the Black & Gold. Of course he could just be a freak outlier regardless of park, etc. But it isn’t something I’d want to bet a huge trade package on, personally.

Since we are discussing Tampa Bay some here, I think I will stay there for mine.

Pirates get: Randy Arozarena, OF ($44.1 SV)

I know the last article was the OF one, but I keep coming back to Randy as a quality target. He is in the midst of a down year and does seem to have turned a bit of a corner before the break. Hitting the ball hard & running a low BABIP (for his career norms). It should be noted that his sprint speed has dropped every year of his career to this point and that could definitely play into his BABIP falling as well. Just something to monitor.

Rays get: Henry Davis, C (FV 55, $46 SV)

Tampa Bay is an organization that is strong in many areas. Catcher is not one of them. Yes, it would sting quite a lot to move off of Henry Davis, but Randy Arozarena really does fill a need for the Pirates too. Having Endy Rodriguez on the mend COULD make Davis a moveable asset in the right deal. Maybe this is what it could look like?

Davis has seen his star fade a bit this year too, perhaps. But I cannot see his value totally tanking on the market given his limited exposure to MLB play. 

Smaller Bites

CS- For a smaller acquisition the Pirates are slightly a victim of circumstance. Many teams that are currently believed to be sellers have quite a number of younger players already playing at the major league level. To me, this suggests that both the cost to acquire them and the team’s motivation to move them, renders a lot of these pieces questionable trade targets.

For a smaller move I’d look at something like:

Pirates get: Ryan Noda, 1B/OF (SV $2 based on 2023 FV of 40)

Athletics gets: Jeral Toledo, INF (SV $2, FV40)

Noda had an interesting 2023 at the major league level hitting 16 bombs with a .342 wOBA/123 wRC+ in 127 games for the A’s. His 2024 big league play was poor in a 30 game sample, just 1 dinger in 30 games and a .212 wOBA/38 wRC+. 

His AAA play has been much better, but it also highlights his risky profile as a low average, high OBP slugger (.227/.408). But he has produced none the less with 12 homers & a .396 wOBA/124 wRC+. He has a pretty good approach, but has been unable to make consistent contact. The contact he has made has been strong featuring an xDamage of .475. 

Going back to Oakland would be an intriguing lotto ticket type of piece in Toledo. A switch hitter that performed well in the Complex league as a 20 year old in 2023. Thus far it has not translated to A ball yet, but his profile is enticing enough to make him an attractive option still.

Noda isn’t particularly sexy, but he can play both first base and a corner OF position. His splits vs LHP could make him prohibitive though. While it is somewhat unlikely at this stage of his career, perhaps a team willing to give him an extended look could strike some gold for a few seasons and find a cheap power producer.

JV-  I hate to go back to the LA Dodgers for my nibble here, but the set up to grab a bat here is just too perfect for both teams. Whether it be Jazz Chisolm Jr or Luis Robert Jr, the Dodgers will be going for the big gun to add to Andy Pages and the HR King Teoscar Hernadez. Leaving them with James Outman, Jason Heyward and Miguel Vargas to move. 

Pirates get-

Miguel Vargas-OF/2B/1B-MLB (SV hard to gage)

FG still hasn’t made an adjustment to his projections. Needless to say, they will and those adjustments should come down. Since being recalled at the end of May Vargas is slashing 

.249/.299/.459  OPS .659  wRC+ 112

Nothing to write home about, and after getting demoted in 2023 the value has surely taken a hit. Still, he can play 1B and OF and at 24 years old the upside is still there.

LAD get-

Tony Blanco Jr-1B/RF-ETA:2027 (FV 40+ $4M)

The Bucs once stole Oneil Cruz from the Dodgers in a deadline swap for Tony Watson. Do the Dodgers return the favor?

Marco Gonzales-Sp-MLB (SV $even)

The Dodgers were set to have one of the better rotations in baseball, and they still will. But for now they have some guys out and Gonzo can help bridge that gap and when they get some arms back he can help stabilize the 

Bullpen. 

CS – I am going to cheat a bit here and give one more option. 

Pirates get – Kyle Stowers, OF (SV $4.00 based on prior FV of 45)

Orioles get – Braxton Ashcraft, P (SV $4.00, FV 45+)

Stowers is currently on the O’s big club roster after the injury to Heston Kjerstad opened a spot up for him. Much like almost every other O’s prospect, Stowers doesn’t truly have a spot to play beyond a reserve role. Make no mistake, despite being less hyped, he is an intriguing power hitting prospect. In 2024, he launched 17 jacks on the back of a .366 wOBA/113 wRC+. The batted ball data is strong featuring a 91.5 average EV and 45.6% Hard Hit rate. 

Given his size, he could make an idea transition to 1B case but can also man a corner OF spot.

Ashcraft going to Baltimore is about the combination of proximity and quality. He could provide help immediately to Baltimore either as a starter or reliever. It would hurt to move him, but Stowers would be a compelling get.

Put a bow on it

CS- Well, this was surprisingly harder than I expected. After digging through almost every team’s organizational depth, I kept coming up with the same kind of player as a logical target. Corner OF with potential to play 1B. I can’t stress enough how strange this trade market is to scour. Do you agree or am I over thinking it here, JV?

JV- Agree and then some. The list of known ‘sellers’ is small while the list of known “buyers” is guesswork. I have to imagine that there are some teams ‘in the hunt” that have GM’s that are aware their team is more pretender than contender but what those teams will do is something we’d have to call in the Scooby Doo Gang to investigate as they’re complete mysteries. 

I took a larger bite by looking at Isaac Paredes and you’re right. There are some concerns there. But I do think at one point the production is the production. 7 of his 16 homers this season were on the  road and 30 of career jacks have come on the road. And he hit 20 as a Twin in 2022. A few of his HR could turn into doubles off the Clemente Wall at PNC Park and I am a-ok with that. 

That wraps up this edition and if you’re looking for a hint of what’s on tap for the next week? All I can say is it’s a little bit of this and  a little bit of that.