Ten Pirates Player Observations Before We Finish 2024

9-1-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

This season has been filled with ups and downs, mostly downs recently, but it’s also important to take note of what we’ve learned about individual players that this team is almost sure to return in 2025.

Some of these might feel positive, some might be simply that more questions emerged, either way, we know more now than we did as the season started, and that’s still important.

Let’s go, these things usually wind up being fun.

1. Oneil Cruz

He’s Got the Bat – First things first, it took a while, but I think it’s safe to say now, the big bat we hoped he had that we could plop in the middle of the order is there. He’s hitting lefty’s and righties and no, I don’t care which entity wants to take credit for it although, the player should probably get more praise and blame when things do or don’t work out in general.

Centerfield, but… – OK, so it’s done, he’s now a Centerfielder, but there probably isn’t enough time in the season to truly feel comfortable. I think it’s fair to say we’ll absolutely see this as the plan heading into next year, it’s up to both Oneil and the team how good we feel by time Winter rolls around.

2. Henry Davis

He Can Catch – It’s not perfect yet, but he’s come a long, long way and while Joey Bart is going to get, and absolutely earned plenty of playing time, Henry has something no other Pirates catcher has, a killer arm and top of the league pop time. Watching the Pirates get absolutely abused on the basepaths, man, I’m not sure that’s a weapon we should be too anxious to move on from.

The Bat is Still Lagging – He’s hit in AAA, and I’m not going to make a bunch of predictions about how it will evolve, that’s not really what this piece is about, so all I can really run with here is you’re going to have to give it time, and the Pirates need to be willing to give him plenty of opportunity. Playing everyday in the minors and then coming up here to sit every other day won’t do, so it was encouraging to see them not only play consecutive days, but finally catch one of the pitchers they feel need or deserve special catching attention.

3. Bryan Reynolds

Still the Pirates Best Player – Every year we seem to want to hand it off to Oneil Cruz or whoever the hotness is, and every year Bryan just comes out and shows he’s the best player on the baseball team. His offensive game is complete. He can hit the ball everywhere, from both sides of the plate, for power or contact. His eye is elite and he can even run the damn bases when he gets on. He also doesn’t look like someone who’s destined to wind down early. AKA, the contract is going to look brilliant.

Defensively? – I think we’ve learned that Bryan Reynolds is simply never going to be an advanced analytics darling defensively. He passes the eye test, gets to most balls, cuts things off to hold runners back, makes strong throws. Yet year after year his -12 Outs Above Average is ranked 199th in baseball. Something they could do to really help him would be to put him in the smaller right field at PNC like they planned to in Spring. It also might be time to consider moving him to first base. Again, I think he’s plenty passable out there, but those numbers are not figures I believe he’ll improve on in left field again, not to mention, an easier on the body position might be wise for a guy you have long term.

4. Ke’Bryan Hayes

It’s All About the Injury – I think one thing is safe to say we’ve concluded. The back is an issue, one that isn’t going to just go away. We’ve heard Ke’Bryan talk about it, we’ve heard Ben Cherington talk about it. Sounds like they have had him in front of “World Leaders in the Field” and they have some clue as to how they want to attack it, but there can be no counting on Hayes to be healthy or effective moving forward. You can hope for it, but you better have a pretty damn good plan B.

There’s a Real Disconnect Here – Something stinks to me with the way Hayes has handled his back issues, and how the team has too. Players and teams don’t always agree about how to move forward with treatment for injury, but this one has lingered for years now and I’m sorry, it doesn’t matter who is more responsible, it isn’t working. Both entities have incentive to make this work, but it feels to me like neither side is willing to compromise on a path forward. Both sides seem frustrated. Time to go back to the drawing board and more importantly, don’t allow this situation to play out on the field if you can do better.

5. David Bednar

Blessing in Disguise? – I mean, I know and it’s been reported the Bucs were set to extend Bednar last offseason before he injured his LAT. This ill timed for David injury, well, it sounds bad but it might have been a blessing that keeps this team from an extension that I personally think they’d regret. There’s no reason to do anything but take Bednar to Arbitration the next two years and make a decision after that.

Velocity Up, Command Down – The Pirates were probably encouraged to see David’s velocity jump up a bit, even hitting triple digits once this year, the problem is, it came at the expense of his command. In other words, his perfectly placed 95 MPH fastball 2 inches off the top of the zone got chase and mis-hits. His 97 MPH fastball 5 inches off the top gets taken for a ball, unless of course he misses in the other direction, then it gets planted in the seats. Command is off on the Curve and Splitter too, but everything is more exposed when the heater is failing him.

6. Nick Gonzales

Kid is a Pretty Good Hitter – I love what I’ve seen so far. Over time, I expect him to produce a bit more power, but I’ll take what he’s doing right now regardless. He’s taking good at bats, hitting balls hard, running hard, taking walks, protecting the strike zone, I’ll just say it, I’m impressed. I think he’s done more than enough to feel like second base is all his unless he would come up lame.

Glove has Been Impressive Too – Again, he’s shown an ability to slow the game down and make his plays at second. Turning double plays, even while receiving some questionable relays here and there were on point. I certainly didn’t have Nick as my breakout player prediction this year, but he is probably the one who changed my mind the most as the season played out.

7. Joey Bart

Change of Scenery Worked – Joey has been the best version of himself really from the moment he became a Pittsburgh Pirate, and under team control for quite some time now, he’ll return next Spring firmly planted on the roster. Starter, backup, DH, honestly, it’s not all that important yet. His bat really performed well enough to think of him more as a bat who can catch than a guy who has to catch to be valuable.

Injury Concerns – I’m not here to say Joey is made of glass or he has anything chronic like Ke’Bryan Hayes, but he does take a beating behind the plate. Lots of thumb injuries, concussion concerns from being back there, but recently it’s been more groin and hamstring type stuff. Again, I’m not saying there’s anything he or the team need to do different here, just that regardless of what Joey Bart shows us he is, he’s probably not a guy who is playing 150 games even if they give him 75 at DH. There’s enough history here to see he’s good for at least 1 short trip to the IL here and there. On this team, that could be completely fine.

8. Paul Skenes

Oh Yeah, He’s Real – There’s no doubt about it, Paul Skenes is that dude. He hasn’t regularly hit triple digits in weeks, and he’s enough of a pitcher he can still use it in the same fashion. The Slider, changeup, splinker, and who knows what he’ll come up with next year all work and he’s a horse. It’s hard to imagine a sophomore slump for a guy who as we speak is overcoming his own body tiring on him in his rookie year.

Humble Leader? – I mean, a dude who simply says “good luck” to his competitors Humble? Well, yeah. He understand the chain of command, probably from his military time, and that comes with one truth it takes decades to learn for many, you don’t know everything. He’s open about how he’s learning, and who he’s learning from. He’s open about how he gets ready, and open to changing it up too if he feels he needs to. He leads by quietly doing his job, a workmanlike superstar who’s more than happy to let Keller be the veteran leader and Jared Jones to be the emotional strikeout artist.

9. Mitch Keller

Availability – Mitch’s best ability is his Availability. He’s healthy, he takes every turn and for the most part he gives you a chance to win. He has a shut down pitcher in there, but primarily, what you KNOW you’re going to get from Mitch is going to give you 175-200 innings and for the most part stay on your roster. I honestly think this is in part a choice, because Mitch could go max effort a lot more often. His number would be more impressive, but he’d exit more games earlier and likely wind up on the IL here and there too. Say what you want, but the dude doesn’t miss turns and he’s very likely to turn in a sub 4.00 ERA again. Great Extension.

Need to Whittle His Mix – Mitch does a lot of good things, but he’s got to start seeing his cutter isn’t his friend. The league is slugging .514 off the pitch, and last year it was .504, that can’t be a pitch he continues to throw 12% of the time. I’m actually of the belief he’s throwing it more than this, but statcast is classifying some of them as sliders. The sweeper, slider, cutter is creating a situation where he has 3 pitches on the same plane, wait for the one with the least spin and hammer it. 2 years is plenty of evidence. Even if it’s to save his arm, it’s ineffective.

10. Connor Joe

A Role Player Asked to Do Too Much – I’m not sure what to do with Connor Joe. I’m pretty sure he’ll start out next year hitting the cover off the ball, and I’m almost equally sure right around when you start convincing yourself he has to play more he’ll start to fall off. If the Pirates bring him back he has to be more of a bench role. Whether it’s his physical ability to stay fresh playing so much or just playing too much exposes him, I think I’ve seen there simply isn’t a starter here, for more than an emergency fill in stint. RJ Reynolds if you’re old like me.

Value in a Righty Platoon Hitter – Maybe? I see this as an easy upgrade, but one I’d be scared to just cut loose before I locked up whomever is going to play first base. Connor isn’t a starter, but there is a pretty darn good bench player there, one a big part of me wants to see used exactly like that before I decide I’m all good. That said, it’s hard to think you couldn’t find someone with even more versatility and a better stick. I can see him being a non-tender possibility.