Before Signing 1 Free Agent, Here’s What I’d Do with this Pirates Team

9-18-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I think about baseball, and building this team a lot. Like, unhealthy amounts of my mental capacity is filled with baseball knowledge and I’ll probably keep doing it until I lose something important like my Children’s birthdays or my anniversary to what’s her name…

A whole lot of that “knowledge” is tied into pretending I know what the Pirates will do. There’s a place for that, in fact, it’s most of what we try to do here, but today, I just want to pretend Bob Nutting charged out of his office and fired every single person from Ben Cherington on down and for some reason, perhaps some Wigle Whiskey, and pointed randomly into the street at me and I was brought in to “fix” the team, what would I do?

First things first, No GM, let alone some random guy like me is going to force this owner to spend more than he already planned to.

We know the budget will go up, because we know how they budget. Next year’s budget will be based on this year’s earnings, thanks Paul! We also know that arbitration will naturally increase the baseline for payroll over the course of the decade. 100Million next year without much effort at all.

Conservatively, I probably have 35-40 million to play with.

Aside from that, I’m gonna do what I want with the players. I’ll trade who I want, I’ll extend who I want, and since Bob gave me 5 years like just about anyone he’d hire, I might not even be 100% afraid to take a drastic step, let’s see where it takes me.

Pending Free Agents

Andrew McCutchen – I don’t believe Cherington was given a choice here, I don’t believe I’d be given a choice and even if I were, I’d take the production he provided this year for 5 million anyway.

Ryan Borucki – Bye Ryan, it was nice what ya did in 2023, good luck.

Aroldis Chapman – If he’ll take 10.5 again, sure, I’d do it. If he wants a raise at all, I’m out. 10.5 on the reliever market is good money.

Rowdy Tellez – I’m inclined to say no. Signing him again would be accepting a guy who has largely become a singles and doubles hitter who can’t run. The market is thin, so I can’t just completely brush this aside, unless I’m moving Bryan Reynolds to first base, in that case, bye Rowdy.

Yasmani Grandal – If I were hired today he’d be gone today.

Michael A. Taylor – Ditto

Jaylen Beeks – Unless I have access to a time machine I want nothing to do with this.

Hey, that was easy.

So that’s either 5 or 15 million of my budget.

Tender Decisions

There are things to consider here. Just because I decide to tender a guy, doesn’t mean I have to ultimately sign them. In other words, if I want to upgrade, but say I only see 1 or 2 guys on the market who could replace whomever I’m considering, I might want to tender them for insurance and ultimately change my mind knowing I could be on the hook, but also not feeling I have many who would go unsigned I’d be doing this with.

I also have to consider the 40-man spot, because it might be more valuable to protect players than hold them. On the surface, I don’t see much of a need for this, maybe a borderline player or two in total.

David Bednar – Arbitration year 2 – They agreed to 4.15 Million in 2023, and there’s zero chance he gets a raise. If he thinks he deserves one, I’d still tender him, but he won’t be on my team long, I want guys who are self aware enough to know you can’t do what he did in 2023 and come to me with your hand out. Yes, I’d tender him, even if it’s just wishful thinking that he returns to a useful reliever, let along closer. Worth a shot to me.

Connor Joe – Arbitration year 2 – Nope. I appreciate the story, the man, the effort, the flexibility, but I’ve got younger and cheaper people in spades who can do the same thing, and I still have the illusion of possibility they can do it better. 2 straight second half swoons, if it’s fair to say mid May is the start of the second half anyway, is enough for me.

Edward Olivares – Arbitration year 2 – I can’t see it. Not because it would be expensive, I bet you could get it done for a Million, I’m just not interested.

Joey Bart – Arbitration year 1 – Of course. I’d have to imagine he gets somewhere in the 2 million dollar range, and it’s a bargain considering they’ve paid essentially mushrooms to squat behind the plate 3 years running.

Johan Oviedo – Arbitration year 1 – Absolutely, and he’ll be dirt cheap. Maybe a Million or 1.2, something small. Even if he isn’t an immediate starter, this kid has closer stuff.

Bryan De La Cruz – Arbitration year 1 – The way I see this, I’m paying for what he’s done in 2024, not what he’s done as a Pirates player in 2024. He’s hit 20 dingers this year and as long as I think I can get this done for under 2 million, I think it’s worth it for the depth. If I somehow wind up with Jack Suwinski and Bryan in AAA as they both have options, hey, that’s better depth down there than I can recall, plus, if I’m moving on from Joe, I need to be mindful of what I’m leaving as a safety net.

Dennis Santana – Arbitration 2 – Sure. He’s been great down the stretch, and even if he reverts this number isn’t going to strangle the team.

Contracted Values

Bryan Reynolds will get a 2 million dollar raise from 10.25M to 12.25 in 2025. Ke’Bryan Hayes will remain at 7 Million. Isiah Kiner-Falefa stays at 7.5 Million. The big one is Keller who goes from 5.85M to 15.41 that’s approximately an overall increase of 11.4 Million without factoring in any other players departing or coming in.

Coaching

I had to get through the players if only to prove to myself, the bones of this team aren’t changing much.

I, a freshly minted GM, lol, have just looked through these decisions and made them entirely independent of my thoughts about the coaching.

Right or wrong, this call takes me all of 10 seconds.

I wouldn’t be here if they were happy with the previous GM right? And if he didn’t get the job done, I’m hardly going to go into next season with 75% the same team and the same coaches am I?

They’re all gone, and I’m not sure I’d ask a single player for their opinion, because each and every one of them could have or should have done better if they wanted to save their boss’ job.

Presume I’ll make a smart hire or read this for some of my initial suggestions.

Extensions

The first thing I’d look to do is make sure this window that the previous regime failed to open all the way, stays open for a bit longer than many of my brand new fan base believe possible.

I do that with 2 key extensions this offseason. Even if it costs me the ability to spend a few bucks in free agency.

Oneil Cruz – No, I don’t believe we’ve seen all of what Cruz can be, but I do feel like his position at least for the foreseeable future is settled. I think he has a lot of room to improve, I also think he will. You can’t do this without offensive stars, and I mean the type who can take over for a month at a time and dominate the league. Cruz may not be that, but he’s my best shot in the system at the moment, and I strike now, before he enters arbitration and cements his value. He’ll be 26 years old. I’d approach him with a 7 year deal, buying out his final pre-arbitration year, all three years of arbitration and 3 years of his free agency, and I start at 105 Million. I’d have flexibility here, that’s the bottom rung on the ladder, but an AAV of 15 Million starting in a year where he’d make about 800K and then max 35 million over 3 years of arbitration, that’s a fair starting point. At this point of his career, I’m making a bet, just like Oneil would be if he passed on it.

Paul Skenes – Yeah, it’s insane, but this guy will make nothing for a couple years, then hit arbitration and start to cost really quickly. We don’t even know how many years of control the team has, although we will by the time the awards are dished out this offseason. I ignore all of that and offer him 10 years 200 million. That sends him into free agency at age 32, pays him an AAV of 20 million, 80 million of which would be paid out during a stretch he’d have probably made no more than 40 if he maxed out arbitration and it gives him insurance from arm trouble costing him money. It also locks me in if he pulls a Kerry Wood. Thing is, this guy is extremely responsible for this team being on the cusp of being relevant, so I’m happy to avoid all the low pay grossness early on and arguing in arbitration about the length of his outings just to make him part of my extended core.

If I’ve just spent all my free agent money, shame on Bob, but I’m not getting anywhere without these two and only a fool would pretend you’ll be set up with equal talents in 5-6 years when these guys are being moved for prospects.

In other words, If this owner leaves me no choice but to feel I have to grow this internally, I’m going to finish locking down the bones of something I think could be competitive.

Set a Big Goal

If I’m allowed to do all these things, I’d still need to sign some free agents or make some trades, but before I do, I want to firmly lay out what I expect I can achieve here with these basic things done through the end of Paul’s contract extension.

Big, not insane. Nobody can predict championships, but you can count shots at them.

In 10 years of Paul Skenes, I’d commit to 7 playoff appearances. I’d do it loud and proud to in an effort to put some pressure on a franchise that hates having any applied.

7 Playoff shots in a ten year span is probably a bit much, but if I’m trying to convince someone like Bob to commit to that kind of futuristic spending, I can’t see avoiding having to commit to what he could get out of it.

Hey, maybe he just fires me too and points at another stooge, but that’s where I’d go. None of that really looks outside this team’s current assets and yes, it depends heavily on improving guys who are here and adding along the way, but I my goal were to win and win back the fans, I can think of no better way than to lock up guys they long since assumed would be gone in half a decade and publicly commit to winning a lot more than we lose.