The Pirates are Within Striking Distance in 2025, IF They Change Course on a Few Things

9-29-24 – By Jud Verno – @JV_PITT on X

1-No, I am not on Robert Nutting’s payroll.

2-I am not a Nutting apologist.

3-I am not a fanboy of General Manager Ben Cherington.

4-I am not high.

5-I am not “stupid, or something” (though my family and friends could very well make that argument).

We good? Great! Terrific, let’s get to it.

As the 2024 season limps its way to the finish, something occurred to me: the Pittsburgh Pirates are closer to being not just a contender for the playoffs, but a team that many will view as World Series contenders than they are to another 75 win season.

Yes, I’m serious. And no, I did not eat paint chips as a child. Even my wife, who can be pretty critical of me, will tell you that I am not an optimist.

Without going too far down the rabbit hole on the roster, I think most can agree that the Bucs will have one of the more exciting starting rotations in baseball. I get the bullpen was a disaster area that even FEMA would hope to avoid, but they have a core and they get some guys back, like Dauri Moreta. Other guys like Carmen Mlodzinski will have an off season to get healthy and to get right.

The offense certainly had some inconsistencies, to say the least. They had more trouble getting off the ground than the Spruce Goose. But having a Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Joey Bart, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Nick Gonzales and a few other guys is a solid enough core to fix on the quick. (Especially if Henry Davis starts to get it and Endy Rodriguez gets healthy!)

I’m not saying this is all rainbows and unicorns. The GM will have to make some moves and all of us will have strong opinions about what GMBC should do. Bloggers and sports writers will play GM. Hell, even here at Steel City Pirates we dabble in that world. Here, GM Gary Morgan takes a look at the looming 26 man roster decisions. Ethan Smith takes a gander at the free agents the Bucs could talk to. It won’t be long until Corey Shrader and I start taking a look at some trades GMBC could be looking to make at the Winter Meetings. We all love playing GM; yes, even you.

Do I have an opinion on what the Buccos should do to get to the playoffs right this moment? I actually don’t. I honestly haven’t really digested just how bad they’ve been since the trade deadline and I haven’t delved into the FA pool like I normally have at this juncture. Honestly.

Plus, where would I even start? Look, before General Manager Ben Cherington and his staff formulate an off-season plan, there are a few BIG in house decisions they have to make just so they know what direction to go in. What are those decisions? Let’s take a look together.

Question one-

This is the easy one: where will Oneil Cruz play?

When I started mulling this over, the Bucs had just announced that Cruz would be moving to CF. I think at this point it’s pretty safe to assume this is his new home. It’s a pretty small sample size, but he looks extremely comfortable out there. His speed and jump have impressed me to the point that I wonder if they should have done this sooner. Then I remember, this is the Bucs and I can see them reversing course and giving him another year at SS. This organization is like Waffles InCaffeinated without the syrup.

Wherever they do finally decide to play Cruz, it creates a hole. They will need a CF or a SS and neither are something you’re gonna find down at the local grocery store. If the FO does decide to throw Cruz back at SS, they don’t have another CF in the system or on the 26 man roster.

As for SS? No, Isiah Kiner-Flafa is not an every day SS. Could they give Jared Triolo/Nick Yorke or Liover Pegeuro a look? I suppose, but the Bucs need to land them a SS who can field the position AND hit and that needs to be the priority. I really think that Oneil should get used to the view from CF and GMBC needs to get used to the idea he needs to go get a SS.

Question two:

Hitting 2nd and playing first base, Bryan Reynolds?

This is a much bigger mystery. First off, we’ve never seen him play 1B. We only recently found out that he was even taking grounders there. Derek Shelton has said that Reynolds has looked good taking grounders there, for what that is worth. But does that make moving him to 1B worth creating a hole in LF? There are some names in the system the front office will likely kick around for both LF and 1B. Nick Yorke. Billy Cooke and so on, but not one proven power bat in the group. Make no mistake, Bryan Reynolds is still the key here. Where they end up playing him will be a huge factor in what they do in the off-season.

Question three:

The other Cruz, Bryan De La Cruz?

He’s been terrible in a Pirate uniform. And I mean bad. But my dudes, I gotta be honest. He just isn’t good. His life time slash line? .253/.297/.406 OPS .703 wRC + 89.

A batting average of .253 for a three outcome hitter isn’t terrible if the dude could actually take a walk and get north of a .330 OBA, and sure, he runs into a few long balls but a .297 OBA and a wRC+ of 89 just won’t cut it. Jun-Seok Shim (he was the return piece for De La Cruz, in case you forgot) has missed a ton of time since becoming a pro, but he was still a really promising piece to give up in that trade. This will make moving on from him a hard pill to swallow and could be a tough sell to the owner, but I really think GMBC has to find an upgrade here.

Question four:

The wild card: Hey there Bubba, you want to open the year in Pittsburgh?

Would the FO consider starting Bubba Chandler in Pittsburgh? I know what you’re thinking, and it likely falls into one of these takes.

“They’re too cheap to do that.”

“They’re gonna manipulate his service time.”

“They are too slow to promote guys.”

Something like that, yeah? And I feel you. But let’s all take a step back and consider:

Jared Jones started last year on the 2024 opening day roster.

Paul Skenes debuted on May 11th.

Now, I fully understand that these are only two examples. You got me there. But these are recent and I think they are relevant. Here’s why I say that:

AAA numbers- IP 39 ERA 1.83 FIP 2.78 xFIP 3.58 K-rate 34% W-rate 9.4%

And the eye test was actually more impressive than the numbers. Bubba Chandler has thrown his name into the ring and the FO should have a chat about the possibility that Bubba is one of the five starters to break north. If they decide that this option is a go, it has massive roster implications. And more than that, it gives the Bucs their best option to pull off some trades and fill some of the black holes in their line up.

Jared Jones, Paul Skenes and Bubba Chandler would give the Bucs one of the most exciting young rotations since the Braves of the early 90’s. And this is without me mentioning Mitch Keller. Add in Bailey Falter and Luis Ortiz and the Bucs have extra arms. And I haven’t even mentioned Johan Oviedo, coming back from TJS, Mike Burrows (who looked intriguing getting his first cup of Joe at the big leagues this week), Thomas Harrignton, who’s kicking the damn door down as well. Yes sir, Bucs are pretty stocked with arms. Oh, yeah, Braxton Ashcraft, Hunter Barco and even Anthony Solometo could be guys ready to step into a void. To make a long story quick, too late, this is THE area the Bucs can deal from. No doubt.

Monkey wrench the gears? Catch 22? What am I leaving out? So here’s the thing: the starting pitcher that is going to net the best return? Aside from Skenes and Jones who are untouchable is one Mitch Keller.

Sure, the others have value. Last year the Bucs traded JT Brubaker to the Yanks for Keiner Delgado, an extremely nice trade for GMBC (if I’m being honest) and Johan Oviedo will have a much better trade value than JT. Bailey Falter is a left-handed starter with control, four years of control to be exact. Falter looks like a solid 5th starter and sure you aren’t gonna clean a system out for that, but a LH starting pitcher who’s controlled is bringing solid return. Lastly, Luis L Ortiz. Luis is an interesting name as he has been up and down as a starter, but like an old house, the bones are there. Capable of being dominating at times while struggling to look like a 5 at others. Controlled until 2030 while looking like a nice starter overall? That’s worth a look for a lot of teams.

I want to make something clear here, I am not talking about moving a Mitch Keller or a Luis L Ortiz to restock the minor league system. And making a true baseball trade with a starter needy team that can send a viable position player back that’s an upgrade? Well that’s possible but it’s pretty rare. What am I talking about here then? GMBC is going to have to do something here we haven’t really seen him do.

Play chess not checkers.

There’s something that GMBC is going to have to realize. He simply does not have any impact bats in the higher levels of his system. There’s no help coming for the OF. There’s no help coming for 1B. He does have some bodies they can run out there at SS, but no proven commodity.

If he is going to get this team into the playoffs he’s going to have to swing some deals. Could be for a free agent. Could be in a trade. A quick glance at this year’s free agent class will have you reaching for a beer. It doesn’t offer a lot of help, it’s kinda like Old Mother Hubbard’s cupboard. A trade or two is going to have to happen. And no offense to IKF and De La Cruz, but the trades that GMBC needs to get done at the Winter Meetings have to be smarter. They have to be more imaginative and they have to be more aggressive than what he did at the past trade deadline.

He’s going to have to do something that neither he nor his predecessor has been able to do. He may have to complete more than one trade to upgrade one spot. If I may steal a move off of Bobby Fisher? Cherington might have to castle his king. He may need to look nine moves ahead of the other GM’s.

I have no clue what direction the front office will go this off-season. But what I do know is that the decisions they make with those questions will be their guide posts along the way. Hopefully he has something in his plans where he can finally say checkmate.