The Pirates Upcoming Offseason Starting Point

10-11-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I’m probably a bit behind on my normal offseason schedule for writing. By now I’ve usually talked about a lot more than the non-tender deadline decisions and arbitration award estimations.

I just haven’t felt like it. I needed to step back from this season a bit so I could digest it, if only to escape my own emotions.

You’ve seen it in Five Thoughts if you’re a regular reader, most of my entries have been pretty wide, really lacking in the type of team evaluation we try to do here. It’s part of why I decided to do all of them with a musical theme, I needed it so I could keep going.

Frankly, many of you don’t really seem ready to dive in. Some have decided the fight for bigger changes is not over. Some have accepted the changes even if it ticked them off, meaning, “fine, but this is it right?”.

The comments are caustic much of the time, the views are down, the listens are too, we all know it, we all feel it.

When you’re having a hard time yourself getting motivated, and you think you’re probably doing it for an audience that is likely to not be in a good mental place to take it in, if they bother at all, well, let’s just say like Yin and Yang, you and I, we’re pushing and pulling each other.

Today, that ends for me. It’s time to start talking baseball again.

Yinz can catch up with me when you want to later, or you can just tell me “fire Nutting”, like I said on the show this week, have at it, hope it happens, I have work to do.

Lets Go!

The 26-man Roster

I like to do this every year. I like to look at the current roster, and the players we know are coming back and construct what I see as the 26-man roster with no changes at all. No new players added to it, no trades, no signings, just straight up, this is what we’d trot out there if we fired the GM and didn’t hire a new one until June.

The Starting Rotation (5)
Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, Jared Jones, Luis Ortiz, Bailey Falter

The Bullpen (8)
Mike Burrows
Dennis Santana
Kyle Nicolas
Colin Holderman
Carmen Mlodzinski
David Bednar
Johan Oviedo
Braxton Ashcraft

Position Players (13)
Joey Bart (C/DH)
Endy Rodriguez (C/1B/DH)
Henry Davis (C)
Bryan Reynolds (LF/1B)
Oneil Cruz (CF/DH)
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (INF/CF)
Nick Gonzales (2B/SS/3B)
Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B)
Liover Peguero (SS/2B)
Nick Yorke (3B/COF/2B)
Jack Suwinski (RF/CF)
Bryan De La Cruz (LF/RF)
Jared Triolo (INF)

Now, you can quibble here and there. I think they’ll keep Bednar and De La Cruz and move on from Joe, maybe you don’t, that’s fine, either way, this is probably very close to their best 26. I’ve also left Cutch off, because technically they have to do that before I can call him “here” and you’re welcome to remove anyone you like from that list.

I don’t look at this list like I’m not going to make changes, I look at it as a starting point, and likely the bank of players who will serve as the replacements for injury or poor performance.

This also doesn’t pretend Bubba Chandler has no chance to win a spot, again, just what’s here and on the roster.

The other notable I’ve left off is Billy Cook, I just ran out of room, but sure, you can swap him in for someone too.

How Much Work Do We Have to Do?

Again, some of you aren’t ready to talk about this primarily because you think the person making these decisions shouldn’t be here. Sorry…

First thing for me, I need to understand their intentions with Endy Rodriguez and Bryan Reynolds. If either of them is going to become the everyday first baseman, it changes a heavy lift this team has to get done this offseason.

If they choose Bryan, look, he’s going to play there just about every day, so obviously you don’t need to sign one and you have Endy, Jared, Billy Cook, minimally who can hang there to back him up in the 15-20 games he doesn’t play the field.

If they choose Endy, well, we better hope he hits, because that same list, a bit shorter minus Endy himself will be backing him up and I’d feel you have to go get an MLB quality backup, maybe even a Dom Smith type because you wouldn’t want to sign a starter if you’re going to give Endy a real shot at it.

If the answer is neither are going to do more than spot start there if at all, OK, you must go get one.

This has to be a real starting quality first baseman. Doesn’t have to be Pete Alonso but it probably should be someone who started most of 2024 and produced. Trade for it, sign it, whatever, you have to get it, filling first base this offseason is non-negotiable.

Next, I think I’d turn to corner outfield, again, making the call on Bryan Reynolds factors in here which is why I really think making that call needs to be early on. I’d go get one regardless, but if Bryan is a 1B, you need a sure bet producer, if Bryan is sticking out there, maybe you can just let it play out with Yorke, Cook, Suwinski, De La Cruz. Again, I’d go get a proven producer like Michael Conforto if I could either way, it’s one of very few wide open positions you can add some punch to.

Maybe a short stop. They have a lot of options to play the position, but none that really intoxicate me. Maybe a Paul DeJong type veteran who has some pop and can play the position well enough would make me feel better.

Relievers. Specifically lefty again. Chapman is a fine name, but there are others who could fill this bill well too, and probably cheaper. Get a few. Trade for guys with options, they don’t have enough unless they tap into their starting pitcher stable in AAA. They must bring in someone who has lived in the 7-8-9 landing zone for a few seasons, let’s bring in some veterans and lets get some kind of identity that isn’t all about one hometown guy. We need a shark tank not one renegade.

Guys Need to Improve

You hate hearing it, they love saying it, but some of these youngsters quite frankly have to improve.

Oneil Cruz seems happy with the move to CF and he has work to do in order to be good out there, as always he’s starting with a physical advantage. At the plate, he fought all year to get back to where he was at the beginning of 2023, now it’s time to take a jump. There could be almost no bigger or more important to the overall cause happening than Cruz taking a step.

Ke’Bryan Hayes needs to either be healthy or the team needs to minimize his role and eat the salary. Listen, if he gets beaned and misses time, that’s not what I mean, but this team never wins a damn thing unless Hayes is at least a hitter you don’t consider an automatic out.

Nick Gonzales in my mind put his foot down a little this year and declared he’s a Major League player, now it’s time to add to his skills. Clean up the on base percentage a bit while keeping the clutch he’s shown and this is a player.

Henry and Endy are obvious, of course they need to step up, at least one.

All the other kids like Jack, Triolo, Peggy, De La Cruz, Cook, Yorke, and all the pitchers too, well they all need to look like they knocked some of the kid out of their game, and De La Cruz probably doesn’t even belong on this list, he just played like a lost kid after he got here.

So yes, get better.

Some of the team’s improvement absolutely has to come from this function. Yes, yes, this is why I too would have moved on from Shelton, but again, that’s done for now.

How Bad is it Really?

Know what? Honestly, I don’t think it’s bad.

I really think the playoffs are there, at least from what I see on the field. I can honestly say I like their roster better than the Detroit Tigers who are a win away from the ALCS. The Tigers are hotter than hell, but all season long, they weren’t. I’m happy for them, truly, but I wouldn’t trade rosters with them. Maybe that makes me crazy. I’d for sure like a few of their bats and who the hell wouldn’t want Tarik Skubal? But their bullpen is pitching out of their minds right now, and they’ve got some kids who simply have no idea this is supposed to be hard quite yet.

Truthfully, I think this team is a couple decent moves, and that could be trade or signings, away from being in the dance next year. I don’t even really see it as a stretch.

Funny thing is, I don’t even think we’ll really need to ask Nutting to do anything all that scary for him. I mean, I don’t care about scaring him, but in my mind, that makes it more likely they actually do what they need to do.

Go around the diamond. Just like I did. Every position you want to bring in a starter for is a kid who isn’t getting a shot to progress. That’s fine, you have to do that to improve your team for sure, but have it in the back of your mind when you make your decisions.

Do you want to upgrade SS or 2B and risk pushing Nick Gonzales to the bench? Maybe you do, I’m not telling you it’s wrong, I’m just saying it’s what you have to consider.

Ok, first of many everyone, I’ll catch you whenever you jump on the train!