Two Guys Talkin’ Trades – Winter Meetings are Coming…

11-18-24 – By Justin Verno & Corey Shrader – @JV_PITT and @CoreyShrader on Twitter

If you Start me up…

Justin Verno-  Before we really dig into the upcoming Winter Meetings, I want to point out a few things.  

First off, this just was not the season we had hoped it’d be. This team at one point looked like a playoff team. And if I may be so bold, they had a starting rotation that would have been the envy of many a playoff team; one that would have made many teams uncomfortable, perhaps even fearful.

Then the Acme Rocket that Wylie Coyote bought to catch the Roadrunner blew up, leaving poor Wylie burnt and looking like a fool.  I am not bringing this up to be a Debbie Downer, nor are we here to talk about what went wrong.

So why do I bring this up? A few weeks ago, General Manager Ben Cherington held his end of year press conference.  There seemed to be a “playoffs or else” tone to it as GMBC said that he and Manager Derek Shelton would “go into 2025 accountable together”.

Corey, could I maybe read too much into that? Perhaps, but it really does have the feel of now or never.

Why is that important to me and you? It’s a wild card to me. If his job is on the line I think we could see a more aggressive GM in Dallas come December.

Corey Shrader- When a GM and coach make that sort of declaration at the end of a disappointing season, it is really telling. The message has likely been conveyed to them that your jobs have an expiration date and a clear expectation of results. 

JV-  The other point I wanted to bring up here, for the first time since we’ve done these pieces at Steel City Pirates, the Bucs have specific and identifiable needs. And I get that the Bucs had specific holes at the trade deadline last year, but I think there was still some “wait and see” approach. The front office, for the reasons I mentioned earlier, should not have that philosophy at the Winter Meetings. 

CS- Pittsburgh has more clearly defined needs this offseason than in the past. The corner OF positions are nebulous, shortstop now has a 6’7” sized hole in it, & first base is vacant and wanting of talent yet again. I do think that left handed starting pitching would be a nice fit, but likely not the highest of priority. 

To briefly expand on the above; there are real indications that Pirates star outfielder and offensive fixture, Bryan Reynolds, will be working on transitioning to first base in 2025. I do not think that Reynolds shifting should be viewed as the absolute solution, but it could be one. While we know that Reynolds is a poor defensive OF, his capability to play first is a totally unknown quantity. 

Yes, there are outfield options in house. Bryan De La Cruz, Jack Suwinski, Joshua Palacios, Billy Cook, Connor Joe. But we’ve seen them try to cobble this coalition together to get winning results and it just does not produce them. I do not mean to suggest that these players cannot be contributors. What I am saying is that they have proven to not be starting caliber thus far.

At the shortstop position most lineup projections lean toward Isiah Kiner-Falefa stepping into that role. In my view, IKF is a great “swiss-army knife” player. A versatile defender across multiple positions, but his offense once arriving in Pittsburgh is not starting caliber. Hence the inclusion of shortstop as a need in our estimation.

JV- That maps out the Buccos needs giving Corey and myself a lot to work with over the next five weeks. Buying players is just more fun than selling players, mostly because of why a team buys/sells. So I am looking forward to the next few weeks. 

But before we get to all the “buying,” there is one specific spot the Bucs can and should look to “sell” from. The Bucs are loaded with pitching. Even with Jared Jones, Paul Skenes and even Bubba Chandler in a “Can’t Touch This” category, as MC Hammer would say, the team still has a backlog of arms. 

Of course Bubba may not be given the chance to be on the opening day roster, though I am not writing that off. The boys will still have the arms. Mitch Keller, Bailey Falter, Luis L Ortiz and  Johan Oviedo give them some breathing room. Add in the aforementioned Bubba and a few other arms that could be ready on the quick- Mike Burrows, Braxton Ashcraft and Thomas Harrington and the Bucs seem to be in a great spot to move an arm to help the cause.

CS- To chip in a thought on this idea; it is more of an instance of dealing from a position of strength rather than a pure “selling” position. Make no mistakes, Pittsburgh boasts one of the best pitching development regimes in the major leagues currently. As we have seen in the last few seasons, pitching depth at the Major League level is not just essential, but an inevitable necessity. 

Should the Front Office decide to make the kinds of moves to address need, the strength of the system will make for a good place to deal from. 

JV- Something needs to be said with all of this, if the Bucs do move a starter it will not be to “cut payroll” or to start a “fire sale.” If they do move a starter it is to somehow fill one of the holes in their lineup. Without further ado, let’s get to some trade proposals. Get us started here, Corey.

Swinging for the fences

CS- So, what I am about to propose to you is more of a “let’s make our strengths even freaking stronger” pitch. Are there greater needs? Probably. Would this addition still be very fun & good? Yes.

Pittsburgh gets – Garrett Crochet, SP – SV $104.8M

White Sox gets – Bubba Chandler, P – FV 60, SV $60M

                             Termarr Johnson, 2B – FV 50, SV $28M

                             Michael Burrows, P – FV 45+, SV $6M

I can tell what you’re thinking after seeing this. “But pitching is the strong point of this club. Why do the Pirates need another pitcher?” You might also be thinking “it is stupid to pay that much prospect capital for another pitcher.” Valid arguments, to be sure. But I submit to you that Garrett Crochet is not just “another pitcher.” 

2024 was Crochet’s first real exposure at filling a starting pitching role in the major leagues. My major takeaway is that he is for real, and he is spectacular. Among all pitchers that logged a minimum of 100 IP he finished with a 2.83 xERA (9th), 2.69 FIP (5th), 2.53 SIERA (1st), 29.6% K-BB rate (1st), 209 Ks (7th), and a 4.7 fWAR (t6th). Every pitch in his arsenal boasted a Whiff% above 30% including a sinker that he added later in the season. I would go so far as to say that Garrett Crochet is not just “good,” but firmly in the discussion for the best pitcher in Major League Baseball.

The package going back to Chicago here is hefty. Bubba Chandler is about as close to an elite pitching prospect as there is, he is right up there with Andrew Painter, Noah Schutlz, Jackson Jobe, and whoever else you want to fit into that tier. Coupled with his ascension to AAA in 2024, his taste of the Majors seems all but imminent sometime in 2025. Similarly, Michael Burrows is essentially ready for a Major League role after working back from surgery to debut in late 2024. 

Termarr Johnson is a tough evaluation, in my opinion. He regularly flashes the skills that made him the 4th overall selection in 2022, but he was also somewhat inconsistent too. I’ve got some reservations about him retaining his 50FV ranking, but the pedigree probably is enough for it to stick and/or other teams to value him as such in a trade.

Are other needs glaring? Sure. But the vision of a Skenes/Crochet 1-2 is truly terrifying for opposing teams. 

JV- If you were to open a different window and google “2025 MLB off-season team needs” you would find this article.  Take a stroll down the piece and you will see 21 teams listed as needing a “SP”.  OK, I get that Yardbarker isn’t attending the front office meetings of MLB teams, but still. A few of these organizations might not feel they need starting pitching. We can also eliminate some teams. Division rivals. Teams that are rebuilding. And so on. 

But one thing is certain, the Bucs will have options if they do decide to go this route. 

For my big swing I’m looking at the Chicago White Sox and hey, let’s do the first three team trade scenarios of the season. 

Red Sox get-

Mitch Keller- SP-MLB- SV $13.3M

Put aside Keller’s projections for  second. Put aside his ERA. Keller had 31 starts this year. In 22 of those starts he gave up 3 or less earned runs. In 5 of the remaining 9 he gave up 4 ER. Mitch Keller is really good and he’s consistent. More so than one would guess by scoreboard watching. I imagine the Bucs could get more value than the projected surplus value. 

White Sox get-

Miguel Bleis-OF-ETA:2026 (FV 50 $28M)

Miguel Bleis is coming off a lopsided season. After earning a promotion from A to A+ by slashing a solid .257/.349/.398 with a wRC+ of 123 he had some issues adjusting to his new level. Hitting .190/.265/.319 with a wRC+ of just 70. Due to these numbers, I can see him getting devalued a little bit, perhaps to a 45+ but at  20 there’s still enough for the White Sox to get excited about here. 

Braxton Ashcraft or Thomas Harrington-SP-ETA:2026 (45+FV or 45 FV $6M or $4M)

This is a pick ‘em situation for the White Sox. Both Braxton and Thomas have a 50 grade by at least one site. Both pass the eye test with one being held back by injury the other is just undervalued. 

Liover Peguero-SS/2B-Debuted-(SV-hard to gauge)

Corey, we’ve been here before haven’t we? Liover is still a really intriguing kid. He debuted at 21 years of age. In 2023 he hit 7 HR over 59 games but he currently looks like a flier or change of scenery guy. The ball still explodes off his bat but I don’t see the Bucs giving him an honest look. 

Yordany De Los Santos OR Keiner Delgado-SS-ETA: 2027 (FV 45 $6M)

Another pick ‘em food Chicago. Giving up either would be a hard pill to swallow. SS are a nice commodity to have but that also means they are nice commodity to move in trades. 

Pirates get-

Luis Robert Jr-OF-MLB (SV $18M)

Yes, I get he’s often injured. I get this a gamble. But when healthy he’s the biggest difference maker the Bucs could realistically acquire. Is the juice worth the squeeze?  I think it is. I know this doesn’t look and feel like the big swing we’re looking for, but the discounted cost could be worth looking at for Ben Cherrington.

Andrew Vaughn-1B/OF-MLB(SV $18M)

This would be a perfect situation for the Bucs. Adding an OF and a 1B/OF in a BOGO deal. While Andrew Vaughan never hit his ceiling he still has something the Bucs need, power. He’s not only an upgrade over Bryan De La Cruz, he’s more versatile. Side note, his SV of 18M will likely tick down a hair when the new projections come out.

While this isn’t the homerun many were probably hoping for, it seems to me more in line with something Nutting might approve of. There is risk here and I get that, but there’s also reward. 

I can also see another piece headed to Boston but I don’t think it’d be anything to lose sleep over to even out the SV, but in the end these values will be changing a good deal. 

Bunting ‘em over

CS- Conventional wisdom typically says that being overly reliant on prospects to take on big roles from day 1 is not typically smart money, I have a definite target in mind for a mid-sized acquisition. This player is more of an inexperienced young player than a full on “prospect,” but the same thought process could apply here about relying on younger players for major contributions. 

First base has been a hole for the Pirates for a long enough time that almost every guy without a clear & permanent home defensively is floated as a “try him at 1B” option. What I’d like to suggest would be something similar to what the Cubs did with the acquisition of Michael Busch in 2024. To accomplish this, I think the team should look out west at the City To Be Determined Athletics. 

One thing I want to avoid here is the notion that “they’re the A’s and they’ll trade anyone without rhyme or reason because that’s what they do.” Yes, they are an overall poor ballclub, but I do not think that is how they truly operate. I will expand on my reasoning behind this target in a bit.

Pittsburgh get: Tyler Soderstrom, 1B (11.8 SV)

Athletics get:    Braxton Ashcraft, P (45+ FV, 6 SV)

                           Yordanny De Los Santos, SS (45 FV, 6 SV)

To address the “why would they move Tyler Soderstrom” question, in my mind it comes down to both organizational depth & organizational need for the Athletics. Based on 2025 lineup projections, many expect Soderstrom to be the A’s starting 1B from day 1. This expectation does set the stage for an elevated asking price. 

The rationale behind a Soderstrom trade is that the A’s have seeded the system with other 1B options. With the 4th pick in the 2024 MLB Draft they selected Wake Forest slugger Nick Kurtz. With pick 40 overall they selected LSU corner bat Tommy White. They also feature premium power hitting DH Brent Rooker on the major league team. 

Nick Kurtz looks to be a fast moving big bat and a 1B/DH only. Tommy White is slated to play 3B, but his future there is not assured from a defensive standpoint. Brent Rooker is a pure DH and is under team control until 2028. This is not even counting 2023 draftee Will Simpson. Since being drafted, Simpson has been decimating the minors in his own right. Things could possibly get crowded very quickly in the 1B/DH arena, hence the Soderstrom target not being too pie-in-the-sky, in my opinion.

What the A’s system is thin on is starting pitching. 

The key piece in this type of move from what the Pirates send would be the starting pitcher. In the proposal above I included Braxton Ashcraft, but in reality, I would feel fine swapping in any of Michael Burrows, Thomas Harrington, Hunter Barco. All of whom I believe will be strong 45+ FV player candidates in the 2025 update.

It stings to also add youngster Yordanny De Los Santos here, but a 45 FV grade bat would also be necessary in lieu of moving 2 of the above pitchers. He is very much still a project and a fun one. The obvious drawback in including him is the hole at the shortstop position in Pittsburgh right now, but I would be willing to take my chances and move him. 

My case for Soderstrom is that he checks a lot of boxes in a “breakout coming” sort of profile. On the website formerly known as Twitter, I recently called Soderstrom my #1 trade target for the Bucs and even compared him to the Mets 2024 breakout, Mark Vientos. I still stand by that assessment.

Soderstrom can punish the ball. He features a well above MLB average exit velocity of 91.9, an above MLB average barrel rate, well above average hard hit rates, elite flyball & linedrive average exit velocity of 97.4. Since I compared him to Vientos above here are those same numbers Vientos posted in 2023 compared to Soderstrom in 2024:

To go one step further in this comparison, Soderstrom showed some intriguing hit tool avantages to 2023 Vientos.

Now, if I, a random internet user, can identify these things, you can be pretty darn sure that the Athletics know all of this too. But, if the Pirates are willing to make it worth the A’s while, I do believe Soderstrom could be had.

JV- Adding Soderstrom for that package would be a no brainer and I’d love to see GMBC looking at that kind of trade. In the same vein of the past trade deadline deal to acquire Nick Yorke. 

OK, bunting them over may come across as a bigger swing than my big swing. So stick with me here. Let’s call up the Guardians. 

Guardians get-

Luiz L Ortiz-SP-MLB (SV hard to gage)

Does it sound ridiculous to say that Ortiz just looks like the proto typical Guardian pitcher?  He looks like a terrific #4 or even a #3. As far as pure stuff goes, it’s the consistency that needs the work. If we used the WAR of 1 he put up this year he’d likely have an SV of close to $20M. 

Liover Pegeuro-SS/2B-debuted(hard to gauge)

See above.

Pirates get-

Josh Naylor-1B/OF-MLB (SV $9M)

This is a much surer bet then Robert/Vaughn are. Then what gives? He’s a rental and an OF/1B, and folks, that always lowers the ask. Don’t believe me? Check out what the Guardians gave up for a year and change of Lane Thomas at the trade deadline this past season. That said landing 5 years of a proven MLB arm could be a nice bet for the pitching hungry Guardians. 

George Valera–OF-ETA: 2024 (past due) (FV 40 $@M)

Once a top prospect is now a change of scenery guy. The HR power looks solid but the wRC+ came in at 104 this year. With his game and raw power grading out at 45/55 and 55/60 while the hit lagging in at 30/30 he still has some work to do. He’s worth a look for  a system starved for OF prospects. Swapping a change of scenery guy for a change of scenery guy that could address needs for both teams? Why not?

Final thoughts

CS- Coming into this piece the plan on my side was not really to pursue pitching, but the more I dug in on Crochet, the harder it was to look in another direction. It would certainly be a big swing, but to date has been the type of move Pirates GMs have been unwilling to go for. The same could be said, really, of the LuBob scenario. Given the team’s trading track record, even our “bunting them over” moves feel like a dream scenario. This offseason is a mystery box to me. It has that do or die feel for the front office and the skipper, so it seems even harder to grasp at the direction.

JV- Something of note here, these deals are about as different as can be. In the end I think the Bucs will get some deals done before catchers and pitchers report. But sitting here today, we just have no clue how GMBC will operate. How he works with what he has and a new found urgency has us playing a guessing game and I for one, am looking forward to it.