Are the Pirates Actually Trying to Slash Payroll?

12-13-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Let me start here, this team will never spend enough money to make fans feel they were “all in”. It just won’t happen in this market.

Even with a new owner. That’s the setup in the game right now, and it’s not likely to change all that much in the next CBA either.

So, I’m certainly not writing this to make you happy, or placate you, or whatever I’ll be accused of by people who didn’t read the story. I’m just saying, when you scream into the abyss that nothing will change with this owner, you’re right. Your mistake is believing another would change very much. At best you’re Milwaukee, and they just let Willy Adames walk and traded Devin Williams to the Yankees.

Another truth we have to touch on before we get into this, if they win, absolutely nobody would mention the payroll with the exception of comparing their total to those with double or triple the investment that they beat out. Anyone that lived through the last decade as a sentient being doesn’t have to trust me here, you saw it.

So, let’s walk through what has been said, by who, and then I’ll get to my conclusion. As always, how you take this, is entirely up to you, but it’s always best to take in as much information as you can first. If you still feel “This Team” is actively looking to cut payroll, cool. If it changes your mind, well, society in general would be a lot better off if people simply would be open to learning, and more importantly, open to admitting they’ve learned something. Social media has become a contest of always being capable of wiggling out of being caught with an incorrect take. Being wrong is an opportunity to grow.

OK, the first Post Gazette Article

Let’s start with some quotes from this piece by Noah Hiles.

“The Post-Gazette learned Monday the Pirates were open to the idea of trading Mitch Keller. A day later, a league source said Jared Jones was also “very available.””

Before I go further here, let me just address this one quote, because of everything written, this is by far the most inflammatory.

I have zero doubt that “the Post-Gazette”, meaning Noah Hiles and Andrew Destin, did in fact have LEAGUE SOURCES say this. I’m not calling them liars. I’m not questioning their journalistic integrity. I’m simply saying this was worded in such a way that if you already have your bristle up, you’re absolutely ignoring where this came from.

This wasn’t Bob Nutting saying they were shopping these guys. They also weren’t attributed to Ben Cherington. They were from league sources, anonymous league sources at that. Meaning this could be an agent, a rival executive, even just someone who covers the league in general for MLB.com. Essentially anyone who has anything to do with MLB, is a League Source.

And of course it was taken as though Cherington jumped on MLB Network and announced to the world Keller and Jones were “very available”.

Here’s my favorite…

“The ultimate goal of trading Keller, per sources, would be to trim payroll while also upgrading other areas on the roster. Multiple sources said the club’s ideal return would be a young, quality major league bat. Keller’s departure would also create more financial flexibility for additional roster moves.”

OK. So IF they were to trade Keller, of course it would trim payroll, and of course they’d like young quality bats in return.

But here’s the thing, again, these aren’t Pirates sources. They’re again, LEAGUE SOURCES. League sources that are supposing what the motivation for making a move like this would be.

So, we’ve now used league sources to create a potential move, then we’ve further used league sources to create the motivation for the mythological move we’ve just created too.

This creates The Fan dishing for 48 hours about the Pirates actively looking to slash payroll. Pomp tweeting how unconscionable it is to slash payroll with Paul Skenes on your roster. It creates social media users who believe the Pirates are defying the cries for adding to this team or for Bob to sell by thumbing their noses at each and every one of us, by announcing they intend to slash payroll.

But that’s simply not what was said. It’s just what some guy, or guys around the league think MIGHT be the motivation for a deal they THINK might be out there.

They followed up with Cherington, and as usual, he does himself no favors by using too many words to say something simple. Cherington was asked if the Pirates are willing to make additional trades involving the major league pitching staff.

“In theory,” Cherington said. “I mean, obviously, at some point, you got to be careful. We want to maintain that as a strength and you go too far, you start to dig into it too much and all the sudden, you can get yourself in trouble. So we’ll need to be thoughtful and careful about it. Still feel like that’s an area of strength and depth. We’ll just have to see what comes. We’re still interested in adding to the team. We think there’ll be a lot of opportunities to do that. We don’t feel like we’re in a rush to do that. We’ll stay after it and we got a couple more months to work on it.”

So, if this is just a BS report, why not just say no?

Because he wants the options and doesn’t want to be called a liar if they ultimately do pull the trigger on something.

Teams would obviously be interested in Keller or Jones, and their offers, well, they could be insane. This team needs offensive talent and the free agent board, even if they were capable of out bidding others for their services, aren’t all that great.

So if say the Orioles offer someone like Colton Cowser for Jones. Do you want him to not even consider it? Yes, it would weaken the rotation, but you have all this depth in that area, not so much for guys who can do what Cowser can.

Point being, I wouldn’t directly tell you hell no either. Hey maybe Keller gets you a starting right fielder and 2 top prospects from someone, again, do you want them to be shut off to that? Even if it lowers payroll?

Noah tried to clean it up in a follow up, as he’s already had to do more than a few times in his short time on the beat.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1866991571142578405

I appreciate the effort. But the damage is done.

The Fallout

Mostly the fallout is a fan base that’s already nervous at best that this team will do anything right, has been tossed the red meat they were worried about seeing. A full offseason of being told how completely disinterested they are in winning, met with a quote that clinches it.

I mean, game over right?

Alex Stumpf tried to at least offer a different perspective, because by rule of blogging or podcasting, it’s now our duty to ask everyone who might know anything if this completely manufactured story is true.

Check that out on NS9 if you like, it’ll never get as many hits as the original quotes in the PG, nor will Noah’s clean up job.

It’s out there now, and if and when they don’t move either of those two, it’ll be painted as they failed to execute their plan, not that they never said it, or didn’t intend it to be a goal as much as being open to anything even if they did.

So is Payroll Increasing or What?

Nobody knows.

The owner has authorized an increase in payroll, I’ve got that sourced and I’ve seen it in countless other locations. That doesn’t mean he demands they spend every cent of it. That simply means they can if they want or need to.

Nobody knows how much. At least outside the organization, and nobody will.

If you estimate everything out including arbitration awards, the team as we sit here would be around 72 million. Give me a little flex up or down there but I truly mean a little. let’s say 70-75 million right now.

They’ll add Cutch, likely for 5 million, so now it’s 75-80 or so.

They could of course trade prospects for bats, and if they’re all like Spencer Horwitz, meaning on an entry level deal with a ton of team control, it won’t raise payroll at all.

They could sign 2 or 3 relievers and it maybe goes up 10-15 million.

Extensions of players like Oneil Cruz, Paul Skenes, or anyone really could raise the payroll and the baseline they enter 2025 with for that matter.

In 2024 the payroll was around 84 Million. I see no way they won’t eclipse that unless they traded someone like Mitch Keller, because truthfully, the Pirates only have a handful of guys they’re paying more than league minimum salaries.

So yes, I see it going up. How much? Well, I think they’ll approach 100 Million this year, and as the season plays out, eclipse it.

See, the starting payroll isn’t the payroll that matters, the ending one is. As the season plays out, every call up adds to it. If they’re in it, and feel the need to add at the deadline, 100 Million will be a no brainer. If they aren’t in it, bluntly unless they sign some rentals, they won’t have much to shed.

Is that enough to make you feel they’ve “tried”? Probably not. But it just might be all that’s necessary to take this team from the outside looking in, to on the wild card bubble if not in.

I’d also add here, they currently have 4 open spots on the 40-man. They aren’t done adding, and frankly, they have 5 or 6 guys who are on it that are likely not going to contribute this year. Again, they aren’t done, not even close really. Those spots aren’t getting filled for free. Even if they’re all entry level, it’s another couple million and it’s not easy to get those back in a deal unless you’re dealing a veteran, so the likelihood is they’ll be MLB deals.

Again, I don’t write to make you feel good or bad, I write to make sure you have all the information available. Some from me, some from everything I read and listen to, but mostly just trying to put together all the pieces of the puzzle so you can actually figure out what the picture is supposed to be.

You might hate that picture. Cool, nobody is telling you to like it. You might see this as a smart path, you always wanted them to try operating this way and here’s hoping it works. That’s fine too.

Think what you like. Just know, there are brokers out there who aren’t seeking to have you armed with info so you can make an informed judgment, and beyond that, there are fans who flatly don’t want it anyway.