Trying to Find Power That Might Be Available in a Trade

12-15-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I’m trying to keep this realistic.

When you’re trying to do that for Pirates potential trade acquisitions there are some things you have no choice but to consider.

First, is it feasible they would pay whatever salary they’re owed, even if only for a season or two. Yeah, I know, for some of you this number is negative 3 million, but I’m going to do it anyway.

Second, why might they be available. In order for number one to be true, you’ll either need the current team to be attempting to dump some salary and potentially willing to retain some too. Or, nearing the end of team control with no expectation they’ll re-sign in their current location.

Then of course you have to have available some of what that team needs, and have a real fit

Sounds like basic stuff right? Well, it’s incredible how often 2/3 of these are ignored when trades are proposed or more simply fans just say “trade for a power, middle of the order bat”.

Easier said than done.

Because arguably the most important of all these conditions to look for might possibly be what exactly the potential trade partner team is trying to accomplish at the moment. Maybe it is simply to shed some salary. Maybe they need to clear some space for a younger, cheaper player. It could be that their team isn’t working the way they hoped and they just want to shake some things up. No matter what, you need a reason, and so do they.

There are some of these Bigfoot bats out there, and there are some I’ve found that simply don’t make sense because I just can’t hammer them into my “realism” template.

When I talk about these players, I’m going to discuss all their warts, and all the hurdles I can think of that could prevent this from happening.

That’s really the last thing to think about after all, almost everyone is going to have some downside.

Here we go.

Byron Buxton – Minnesota Twins – CF/OF

Why He Might be Available – The Twins have young talent coming quick in Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez, the latter of which already debuted. And, the Twins being a small market with big money committed to Carlos Correa might want to free up some cash to try to lock up Royce Lewis who just entered his first year of arbitration. He also has only played over 100 games in 2 of his 10 MLB seasons.

Why the Pirates Should be Interested – First, his contract runs through 2028 and he makes just a smidge over 15 Million per. It’s good his salary is only 15 Mil, because frankly, he’s chronically injured, but unlike other players who suffer from getting hurt a lot, when he plays, he produces. In 2019, he racked up 3.0 WAR in only 87 games. In 2021 a 4.6 WAR in only 61 games. 3.9 in 2022 where he played 92 and hit 28 homeruns too. Even if his destiny is to play half seasons, the Pirates would do well to add what he does provide to the mix. I’d also suggest they could get away with having him play more corner outfield or even toss him some DH at bats to help keep him on the field.

Why the Pirates Should Avoid Him – The Pirates are probably the last team that should have 22 million dollars wrapped up in two players who can’t stay on the field. If it’s just Ke’Bryan Hayes, that sucks, but if you have two guys in and out of the lineup, that’s tough to ask in this market. Byron strikes out a decent amount, something the Pirates are actively trying to cut down on.

The Price Tag – I don’t know really. If I’m right on my assumption that the Twins need to make room both financially and on the field, they might accept some decent prospects, and if you’re looking for pain points, almost every team needs pitching, and the Twins starting catcher Ryan Jeffers, is underwhelming at the plate and due to hit free agency in 2027, I just can’t see them wanting to commit to him beyond his arbitration years. Might be a fit there with what the Pirates have to offer.

Risk Level – This is a big risk. If Byron is healthy, you have a heart of the lineup bat for the next 4 seasons. If he isn’t, you have spotty help that you hope is healthy at the right time at the very least and that he continues to produce so highly when he is. Honestly, you’d likely be looking to deal him yourself by 2027 or 2028.

Ryan Mountcastle – Baltimore Orioles – 1B/OF

Why He Might be Available – Ryan is on his last year before free agency and he’ll lose playing time to Tyler Oneil and Coby Mayo. It’s no secret the Orioles have prospects a plenty, but they’ve had a hard time making room for them, steps like this are inevitable for the less ugly Baltimore Birds.

Why the Pirates Should be Interested – The Bucs just acquired a first baseman who hasn’t had much success against left handed pitching, and Ryan would make a great platoon for him, on top of being able to play corner outfield. You can hit him just about anywhere you like, and he has a history of providing power, the more you play him, the more he hits.

Why the Pirates Should Avoid Him – Total rental. This is a nice addition for the club, but only in 2025. He’s also been on a slight downward trajectory since finishing 6th in Rookie of the Year Voting in 2021.

The Price Tag – This can’t be for a top prospect and frankly, I don’t think they need any position player help. They only have 2 pitchers in their top 10 prospects, one of whom is already in MLB. I’d offer someone that the Pirates are going to have to consider putting on the 40-man next year to protect them from the Rule 5 like Po Yu Chen. I don’t know that a player like that gets it done but that’s the level. Think AA-AAA Starting pitching that isn’t one of the Pirates top 10. That’s where I’d start.

Risk Level – Low, even if this doesn’t work it isn’t going to hurt the team even a little. It’s a shot at power help this year, and that’s it.

Heston Kjerstad – Baltimore Orioles – OF/1B

Why He Might be Available – The Orioles have just struggled to give him consistent shots and through little fault of his own he’s been passed by the embarrassment of riches this team has in the field. He’s only played in 52 MLB games over parts of 2 seasons and in both of his chances he simply has not made the numbers translate from AAA to MLB.

Why the Pirates Should be Interested – This is almost too easy. He’s dirt cheap on the payroll, has a ton of power, can play the field and brings back a player with 5 years of team control in his back pocket.

Why the Pirates Should Avoid Him – Well, bluntly, his early on boarding has gone about as swimmingly as Henry Davis. At least early on here, he comes with a lot of swing and miss, which is not again something this team should be excited about adding, provided it can’t be fixed.

The Price Tag – I already compared him to Henry Davis, but I’m going to do it again. Highly ranked prospect whose team gave him a bumpy road with no steering wheel and told him to keep it on the road. The talent is there, the execution isn’t. So it’s a bet and I’d imagine a very similar bet the Pirates would expect to be paid if you were interested in Henry. This would be a higher level prospect, if not MLB talent.

Risk Level – High, Heston could be a star, or he could just add his name to the very long list of guys who have everything it takes to get to MLB, until they do. The biggest fear here is you’re asking a team that has struggled to onboard prospects to suddenly do it better than the Orioles who are almost completely built that way. Bottom line, the problem could very well be him.

James Outman – Los Angeles Dodgers – CF

Why He Might be Available – As simple as I can put it, the Dodgers will use him sparingly, if only because they’re stacked. If they wind up retaining Teoscar Hernandez he might not even make the team.

Why the Pirates Should be Interested – In 2023, James finished 3rd in the Rookie of the Year voting, and stroked 23 homeruns. In a bench role bouncing between AAA and MLB he took a huge step back in 2024 and it makes a squeezed out player a sell low candidate. The power is very real.

Why the Pirates Should Avoid Him – Big Strike out guy. He’ll draw walks too, but last year he struck out a full third of his at bats.

The Price Tag – Who knows. Good luck finding a deficiency for this Dodgers organization right now. They might be a bit thin on OF prospects close to the league, but they could also swing Mookie Betts back out there if they needed to fill a hole. I don’t think it would be anything huge though. If the Pirates were shopping Jack Suwinski what would you expect to get back, because these players are very similar.

Risk Level – Low. Shouldn’t take a mint, and at worst you now have two Jack Suwinski’s. Big power lefties who’ve struggled at the MLB level and experienced highs at the MLB level too. this is a deal for potential power, not promised power like a fully fleshed out veteran might bring.

Cody Bellinger – Chicago Cubs – CF/1B

Why He Might be Available – The Cubs want to dump his salary, and his 2023 resurgence did not carry over into 2024.

Why the Pirates Should be Interested – Almost anyone you talk to would tell you Cody had a bad season in 2024, and he still hit 18 homeruns with a .751 OPS. They probably don’t need him to play 1B, but he could if an injury cropped up, platoon at DH with Cutch and play the outfield.

Why the Pirates Should Avoid Him – Simple. He’s an option contract baby and there is no winning for this team here. If he returns to form, he’ll opt out of his contract and leave after 2025. If he doesn’t, he takes the option and sticks you with his contract. He makes 27.5 Million this year and 25 next year should he not opt out. The Cubs reportedly will not retain any of his salary. The last thing I wan to do is help the Cubs, so I hate to deal with them.

The Price Tag – I don’t know what the Cubs want for him. But if the Pirates are eating all his salary, it better be a lottery ticket or two. Again, they can’t sell him like you get him for two years, they have to sell him with the stipulations I put in the last category. I’m interested, IF the Cubs are reasonable.

Risk Level – Medium, honestly, I think his baseline for production will be worth it. The biggest risk by far is that he underperforms and decides to stay anyway. This team can afford the 25 million, but if he isn’t the player they need him to be, they’d be left with very little room to upgrade.

Conclusion

There are options out there, some you have to be creative to see, some are fairly obvious. Wilyer Abreu from Boston is out there potentially, Luis Robert Jr is a more expensive version of Byron Buxton, but he might actually be available instead of guessing he could be.

Nick Castellanos is being floated by the Phillies, that’s a solid and repeatable bat that could be pretty straightforward.

Have a look around the league and see what you come up with. Don’t wait for names to wind up on some list, or hear rumors, see if you can do the math yourself to understand what you might be able to get your hands on.

The Pirates may not get what they need to take this thing to where it needs to go, but it won’t be because there were no options if that’s what plays out.

Some of what I suggested would cost this team payroll. Some would cost prospect depth and salary. Some just making a bet and trading a few of your own for a shot at it.

The Pirates are held prisoner by a jail they build for themselves. The owner causes a lot of it, but I just showed how a GM could work around it should they so choose or fail to convince the owner they need a bit more to work with.

I’d love to hear the guys you find out there. Let me know if you find anything interesting when you’re looking around.