Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Say it Ain’t So

12-16-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

This week, one of the bigger bands of the 90’s, Weezer. And they’ve managed to stick around and stay relevant too. I’ve always attributed this to how uncomfortable with fame certain members of the band are, people who don’t want fame tend to do better when they get it.

The Pirates have made some moves, and rumors of moves arguably got more play. I mean, the article I wrote last week disputing the “slash the payroll” narrative got more clicks and comments than the Spencer Horwitz acquisition piece by a decent amount.

I say this, not to pat myself on the back, it’s more to point out why outlets who are motivated by clicks spend a lot more time talking about anything other than baseball. In many ways, we, the royal we, at least help create the coverage we get. Many will say they want better or more coverage, but people don’t click on that stuff folks. That’s just the truth.

You’ve been on this site for a while. This is why we have no ads. Early on we realized as soon as we are incentivized to get clicks for financial gain, we’d quickly become everything we were hoping to be an alternative to. As soon as we have a “members only” section, we’re incentivized to come up with something sexy to say there so you go and spread the gospel to get us more members.

That’s never going to make us a big outlet. Just isn’t. That’s ok with me.

I’ll settle for consistently hitting them when they do wrong and presenting the other side when I feel they’re unfairly attacked.

After all, our original mission statement “Fair Pirates Coverage” remains our mission. Even when it’s not easy, or popular.

Lets Go!

1. Pork & Beans

The Pirates acquired IF/OF Enmanuel Valdez from the Red Sox in exchange for RHP Joe Vogatsky. I know, you don’t know either player in this deal. Me neither.

I’ve looked into it since of course. So, Vogatsky was a 19th round draft pick for the Pirates just last year.

I’d tell you what they lost here, but it’s not going to be based in anything more than reading scouting reports. Seems to have some translatable skills, but it’ll be a while before he reaches the league, if ever.

Valdez is a left hand hitting second baseman. Now, the Pirates announced him as an IF/OF, but my friends who cover the Red Sox tell me he simply doesn’t have the arm to play in the outfield. That doesn’t mean the Pirates won’t try anyway, it just means this was already kinda ruled out in Boston. Keep in mind, Boston is outfielder rich, so that’s a factor, but not the sole reason.

He has 125 MLB games under his belt and he’s hit 12 homeruns with a low average of .235.

This is depth. Depth that has at least seen some MLB pitching should they need or want him in a pinch. Competition for a bench role where you might not want a prospect rotting on the bench, this is a guy who you can be ok with playing a couple times a week.

Pork & Beans.

These types of moves are meant to provide competition, fill the coffers in AAA, and yes, take a chance on a guy who has some elements to his game you feel are missing.

Left handed sticks off the bench and power are two in this case.

You’ll see them, and every other team in baseball for that matter make moves and signings just like this all the way up to the start of the season.

It didn’t excite you or anyone else because frankly, it wasn’t intended to. Hell, when the Pirates actually try to impress you (remember our guy Vinny?) it typically fails to do so. So when they just announce a move like a line item, at the very least, you should take away, it’s not intended to get you pumped.

2. Beverly Hills

I always remind you that I’m not a real reporter. I’m just a very plugged in fan. So when I say something that’s controversial or sounds like a silly guess, I often follow it up with “wait for a real reporter”.

Well, it happened again. This time, it’s the Pirates finally getting to 100 million this year in payroll. I started telling you this last year in August, because that’s when I was told it was the trajectory they expected to be on.

Admittedly, I was shaken a bit by the way the season ended, if only because I thought there was at least a chance everyone would be fired, but after they were retained, the plan stayed the same.

Now it’s being reported by Dejan Kovacevic that the Pirates will indeed get payroll around 100 million.

This isn’t a look I was right, you should have believed me thing. Seeing it from a real reporter makes me feel better too.

I’m also going to say, it’s not something to be celebrated, as much as the natural progression of things. In 2026, it’ll go up over 100 easier than it’ll creep there this year. And if they play out the string on arbitration, they’ll have a hard time not hitting 130-140 by say 2028.

That’s all without moves that add to it, extensions, or trades to get out of a contract. So there’s wiggle room, but the moral of the story is, for every down, there is an up.

This team was never going to go full Tampa and avoid the payroll creep that comes with young players reaching payday years. They decided that, and made it apparent when they decided to start extending players.

That said, none of this means the Bucs are living Beverly Hills dreams. It’s just the natural order of the game.

Bluntly, for a cheap owner such as Bob, this eventuality is what he had in mind all along. It prevents them from deviating too far from the original vision. Which creates an environment where your GM can’t afford to make many mistakes. It prevents risk.

The thing it does most, since they’re always thinking of the bottom line 5 years in advance is prevent them from making any big investments on the way.

When they get there, the team will be better. Largely by nothing more than young players growing into seasoned players who now make money. And you guessed it, attendance will go up right along with it.

Then we can all say see Bob, spend money on the product and we’ll show up and make you even more!

But he already knows that. He also knows if they tried to spend the same amount on the free agent market, they’d have a half to a third of the talent they grew on their own.

Entirely predictable. Entirely true. And unfortunately so is the eventual ending of the story, unless they have a new wave ready to step in and replace the now expensive guys with youngsters near the end of the decade.

Ahh Small market baseball, it’s certainly something isn’t it?

ALL of this, is the simplest explanation for why they don’t sign free agents they could easily afford. Most free agents want term, many want the ability to option themselves in or out too. Well, the Pirates don’t want anything to do with being unsure of the payroll in a couple years, and to this owner, being over their skis by 10 million is unacceptable. When they get to that 130-140 level, in his mind they’ll already be pushing it, so he’ll be god damned if Cody Bellinger is going to hold them hostage for 25 million. Get it? Trust me, it doesn’t have to be the same as accepting it or being happy about it.

3. Undone

I believe both Ben Cherington and Derek Shelton have to make the playoffs in 2025, or they lose their jobs.

Hardly a revolutionary thought, but let’s just say, every indication leads me to believe this is absolutely where they are as an organization.

I can envision a way the Pirates could deal from their MLB depth and still improve in 2025, but like we discussed in point 2 today, this team is scared to death of risk. I can’t think of a bigger risk than trading Mitch Keller, or Jared Jones for a bat and expecting kids to replace them without missing a beat.

So if they are to acquire someone noteworthy, it’ll almost for sure come from dealing prospects, and even that will impact the long term plan. That said, if you’re Ben Cherington, trying to save your job, what do you care about 2029 for, you get this right now or you won’t be here and that will be someone else’s problem.

Hell, even if they make the playoffs this year, it’s not like that guarantees he still has the gig at the end of the decade.

He’d still have to sell it though, and sell it to someone who knew what the plan was. In other words, Bob would know this is a deviation from what they intended. AKA, not the plan that was sold to him for perpetual winning while never making him too uncomfortable.

There are still deals to be made, signing to see play out, again, they will add to the payroll this year yet, but it’s beyond time to acknowledge, they aren’t going to do anything that overtly weakens this team, this year.

4. Hash Pipe

Is it just me, or does it seem like Ben Cherington only does deals with players from the Blue Jays or Red Sox? I’m kidding of course, he’s obviously done deals with other teams, but man, there almost always seems to be a connection back to one of those franchises doesn’t it?

Makes me feel like he trusted the scouting and development systems at his previous stops, and not so much this one. Which would be quite a weird thing, because he’s in charge of filling those roles here in Pittsburgh, so one would think that would change over 5 years of administration no?

They’ve recently made some changes here to both the scouting and development within the organization, so I’m hoping for some different results, but those will take time to bear fruit, if they ever do.

I just feel like he’s always rehashing old crushes.

It worries me for the reason I just mentioned in regard to trusting his current evaluators, but it also worries me because this team does far too much looking forward and looking back, while not enough on what today will be.

Today always seems to be the collateral damage for overthinking past mistakes, fearing future issues and now I’m bolting on being hung up on guys the GM liked two organizations ago.

It just came out after picking up Spencer Horwitz that Ben Cherington had tried to acquire him as early as two deadlines ago. If it works, cool, but if it prevents him from looking at different options with the right kind of eye, well, that’s an issue.

I don’t know if any of this is really as cause and effect as I’m painting it to be, but it’s just where my head went, and after all, this is my 5 thoughts, not my 5 nailed on facts.

5. Love Explosion

Paul Skenes sat down to do a Q& A.

https://twitter.com/Pirates/status/1868709275998265500

Very well worth your time. Paul is not shy about his goals, and it’s not biding his time and winning wherever he winds up, no, this kid is 100% convinced he and his teammates will get it done right here in Pittsburgh.

This one in particular really struck me as something that will surprise some fans, and double it especially since he made sure to tell you he’s aware you feel differently.

Can you talk about how you’ve been embraced by the Pirates since they selected you No. 1 overall in the 2023 Draft?

Skenes: Obviously, being drafted No. 1 overall was a huge honor, and since then I’ve had a fair amount of visibility and conversations with [chairman] Bob Nutting, [general manager] Ben Cherington and other team officials. And they listen. I was the No. 1 pick, who cares? Whatever. I was still a rookie last year, but they were listening. And they’re listening to guys like Mitch Keller, Bryan Reynolds and Ke’Bryan Hayes too. They’re receptive. They listen to what we think we need to do to win. Mr. Nutting is very approachable. He’s willing to listen because he wants to win, which is good because that’s not the picture that a lot of people paint of him. The only difference is we’re going to win in a little bit different way than the Dodgers and the Yankees. But we’re going to win.

You’ve heard him say some of that before, but I’m here to tell you, it’s a very common take in that room.

Even when nobody is looking.

Seriously, check out the whole thing, even in written form, Paul has a way of making you want to run through a brick wall.