Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – All That’s Bright

12-23-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Today is Festivus, so of course we’re going to do some airing of grievances but let’s be real, complaining for Pirates fans is certainly not a one day event.

Instead of one musical act today, we’re just going to use this list to double as my top 5 Christmas Songs list.

As I do, just remember, I’m not your Mom, so probably no Gene Autry gonna make my list.

Let’s Go….

1. Ramones – Merry Christmas (I Don’t Want to Fight Tonight)

For one thing, it’s not just a good Christmas song, it’s just a good song. The Ramones are incredible, give this a listen and good luck not finding yourself humming it later.

Now, what topic is this going to spin us into? How about the biggest fight going on amongst Pirates fans right now, Spencer Horwitz vs every other first baseman acquired by anyone ever.

It’s kinda that, but another way you could describe it is, it’s really Spencer Horwitz vs what fans see as a more sure bet.

For instance, Josh Naylor gets dealt for a reliever and a Comp B pick, something the Pirates could afford, and Josh certainly has a lot more established power than Horwitz so, he probably is a better player for 2025, at least it you’re placing bets.

So, why are the Pirates so dumb? Right?

I mean, Josh had 31 homeruns last year, surely you can see how that would help the Pirates. He’s on his last year of Arbitration, so yes, he’ll cost more than Horwitz this year, and the Pirates would either have to deal him at the deadline this year, let him walk as a free agent after this year or try to extend him. Whereas Horwitz of course has 5 years of team control.

Bottom line, this is seen by Pirates fans as a cheap option, and many leave it there. It’s not a long term solution or even a shot at one to acquire Naylor.

He’s had 3 good seasons in a row, with the power fully emerging in 2024.

If I’m building a fantasy team, I’m all over Naylor vs Horwitz. But instead, the Pirates signed the equivalent of Josh Naylor in 2021, with a bit less of a power projection and a better glove.

1 year, vs 5 years. The 5 years only matters if Horwitz is a decent player they want to keep, Naylor would have had impact on this year’s club, period. Horwitz could too, but it’s not likely he’ll hit as many homers although his OPS is and has been right in line.

Horwitz will undoubtedly hit for a higher average than Josh and strikeout less. Both are slower than Moses in January.

Horwitz cost more to acquire, just like you’d pay more for a 5 year loan on a Honda Civic than you would a one year lease on a Mercedes. Again, you also get 5 years of use, as opposed to the 1.

Nathaniel Lowe was dealt from the Rangers for a really good reliever from the Phillies. Of course the Pirates could afford this. Of course he’s a better bet than Horwitz to produce, but not as much as you’d think.

Lowe has hit 27 homeruns in this league, but only once, he’s settled in as a high teens, low 20’s type power hitter. Strikes out a lot, low average, high 700’s OPS and he’s an excellent defender.

2 years of Lowe, vs 5 years of Horwitz. Aside from foot speed, these are very similar players, at least Horwitz looks like he’s on that track. Much better contact skills, but again, the speed or lack thereof makes it less impactful than what Lowe can do when he’s on base.

Bluntly, the Pirates don’t have a reliever that could rival who was sent back. Maybe Ortiz could have been close, but the Rangers flat out need an almost completely remade bullpen, and the Pirates have some interesting arms, but Colin Holderman isn’t likely to be valued in the same light. Still, I have to believe this deal could have been made.

I’m just not sure it’s “better”. I bet their numbers are fairly close over the next two seasons and the difference is, they’ll still have 3 more with Spencer if they so choose whereas they’d be right back on the market as early as next offseason to fill this hole again.

It’s not that I think Horwitz is the best, and that’s the end of the discussion. It’s that I see the potential, and I see a fairly well established floor with the guy.

Truth is, fans have decided whatever they acquire has to be the best they’re going to be in 2025 and they simply don’t care about anything beyond that.

I’d go along with that if I thought for a second Lowe or Naylor get this team to the World Series and Horwitz gets them to .500. Thing is, I think any of these players accomplishes very similar things. Fill a hole, play good defense, produce some offense and win more games than last year. None of these are deals that alone put them in the top of the league, all of them get them closer, one does it for half a decade, the others help for a season or two.

I just don’t see this as the fight I’m seeing all over the internet.

2. Darlene Love – Christmas (Baby Please Come Home)

I love this song. I love the old tradition it used to be to see her on David Letterman every year too. Just an awesome song.

Let’s make this one about Andrew McCutchen. He’s going to re-sign. Yes, yes, you can laugh at it being “reported” as done only to watch beat reporters slap it down, but it also will happen.

It’ll even happen for what was posed.

The funniest thing about this is how fans turned it into a pay rate dispute. Look, the only dispute of the “report” was that it hadn’t happened yet, not that he was wrong about the amount or term, or that Cutch was asking for more, or the Pirates refused to pay more, or whatever controversy was dreamed up.

Simply, that it was not in fact, a done deal yet.

Cutch will sign. He’ll sign for what he has played for. It’ll be before Pirates Fest.

People are stupid.

3. Trans-Siberian Orchestra – Christmas Eve/Sarajevo 12/24

There’s just something about this one. I’m not sure it make me feel Christmasy, but it sure does bubble up emotions of some sort. All I know is when it comes on, I stop and listen.

This is going to be about the very real hole the Pirates created in the rotation by moving Luis Ortiz. We now get to fill it, and not in theory, we actually get to start looking at the options the Pirates have on the table and start envisioning what they could look like.

I’m going to focus on who the very top candidates are here. They really have about 5 who “could” but I think they have 3 leaders in the clubhouse.

Johan Oviedo, Bubba Chandler and Mike Burrows.

Oviedo coming back from UCL, Chandler is easily the best pitching prospect the Pirates have had since, well, Jared Jones or Paul Skenes, and Mike Burrows is an ill timed injury away from possibly already having 3 seasons under his belt.

These are the 3 I really see duking it out for that starting role in Spring, and I truly believe if healthy any of them could win it and hold it down.

Bubba in my mind has the same chance Jones had last year, but I’ll remind people, what Jones did in Spring was insane. He didn’t show the team a single crack, in other words, he left them no choice. Oviedo clearly will have to be healthy, maybe he will be, maybe he will need more time. Burrows debuted last year, and he looks as good as he did back when he was ready to do so in 2023 before he was hurt.

This will be a real camp battle, unless the Pirates bring in a vet, which is entirely possible.

4. Willie Nelson – Pretty Paper

Simplicity and beauty with the obvious imperfection of Willie’s voice combine to make a truly great Christmas song. Originally a Roy Orbison song, I just happen to like Willie’s version better. In fact, Willie is the star of one of my favorite Christmas movies called Angels Sing in which Kris Kristofferson sings a version of it. It’s loaded with old country music stars and if you haven’t seen it, I highly recommend it.

For our baseball purposes, let’s make it about Pirates Fest this year which will be spread over two days.

This is where the Pirates try every year to wrap up the team in pretty lights, packaging and interaction in an effort to get fans as excited about the team as they supposedly are.

Last year, they went hard in the paint telling us it was a team that they thought would compete for the division. And obviously, they were wrong.

Not that I expect them to tell fans it isn’t a team they think could win, but they’re going to have to strike a different tone this year. Fan unrest is understandably high, and if the Pirates Braintrust is to stand there and tell us the same thing, let’s just say they’re not going to get claps for the mantras this year.

Fans asked tough questions last year in the Q&A, and to their credit the Pirates tried to answer them, but they are going to have to show us why this year won’t finish the same.

So let me take some guesses about what the framework of their message will be.

• Full seasons with less restrictions for Paul Skenes and Jared Jones will help the season itself be more manageable. In other words, they’ll play up all the accommodations they had to make to get these guys from start to finish and propose the fall out from that made it hard to get where they wanted to go, even as they themselves were really good.
• My guess is we’ll hear references to Kansas City and Detroit replace Arizona talk as the reference to how “close” they are.
• Paul Skenes will be used to continue to deliver his hopeful message about winning here, and I’d imagine we’ll even hear him try to define what “winning a little different than the Dodgers and Yankees” looks like. Even though we all know the answer, cheaper.
• Matt Hague is going to get pressed to explain how different he is as a hitting coach. I’m quite sure he’ll get some grace, but he’ll say much of what you’ve heard from anyone who’s ever talked about hitting. We’ll probably even hear from Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Spencer Horwitz directly as to how they enjoyed working with him.
• We’ll hear the Pirates try to explain what I did in point 1 today, no doubt in a more clumsy and less convincing way because they can’t talk about players the way I can. No executive would, anywhere mind you, but they’ll try to make it make sense. Reality is nothing short of Horwitz showing you he’s a good player will do the trick.

5. Run-D.M.C. – Christmas in Hollis

Rap was still in its infancy really, and this song mainstreamed the genre for millions of Americans who weren’t likely to go out and buy a Rap record. Suddenly, Rap was cool. I’ll never forget my 70 something year old grandma in her kitchen stirring potatoes while I was playing cars on the kitchen table as she quietly sung to herself, “grandma’s making collard greens”. An old white woman from Eastern Europe singing a rap song about Christmas in the hood, only in America folks.

For us, this is going to be about doing more with less. Just like Christmas in Hollis, it wasn’t how much you had, it was what you did with what you had.

The Pirates whether we like it or not, are absolutely going to try to win with less weaponry than many of their competitors. What they sacrifice more than anything here is being sure.

You can’t be sure Oneil Cruz is a good Center Fielder, or that he’s going to hit more than he did in 2024, but you sure as hell are going to see. Horwitz we covered of course but he fits this bill very well too. In fact as you bounce around the lineup, Bryan Reynolds is probably the only guy who you don’t question. You kinda know what he’ll do, at least within reason and that’s the real differentiator.

The Pirates can’t and won’t be able to go around the field and fill you with the brilliance each position holds. They’ll instead have to point to the bare minimum they expect from each, side by side with the potential they see at each spot.

Pick a player, this is the case.

Joey Bart is the starting catcher, but he has about 3 months of being a starting anything under his belt, at least a starter you’d want. He could be just as good as last year, better, or he could come crashing back to Earth.

Ke’Bryan Hayes could play 30 games and spend the rest of the season on the IL, fight injury all year and play 140 underwhelming games or he could be healthy and hit something like he did when he was healthy and suddenly fill a hole the Pirates currently feel held hostage by.

All the moves we want the Pirates to make, well they aren’t going to eliminate these things. Mostly because like I said, Reynolds is THE answer they have that other teams would agree is indeed part of a solution. Everyone else might be.

Such is life on a young team you’ve largely built from the ground up.