12-28-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X
With Andrew McCutchen officially returning to the club, and the Pirates still on the clock looking to bring in more offensive help, it feels like a good place to check in on what we have and talk a bit about timing, extension candidates, and even who might be a candidate to replace someone who currently has a starting role.
This isn’t about what they should do. It’s about what I see here right now, how I project them moving forward and the like.
So, leave your Nutting won’t comments or your Ben’s too stupid comments out of the conversation for the moment, and just look at this baseball team in a different way with me.
This is all position player and DH talk tonight. No need to get into the pitching right now.
Third Base
Presumptive Starter – Ke’Bryan Hayes – Hayes is under team control through 2029 with a Club option for 2030. We all know his back injury situation, but make no mistake, this team plans to give him a shot. And really, it’s not worth pretending otherwise. If he’s right, he’s a well above average player and anchor of the defense. Cheap. That said, there may be no position where the alternates matter more.
Alternates Likely on the Roster – Jared Triolo, the reigning NL Utility Gold Glove Winner never looked better as a player than he did when manning third base. He has value off the bench, as a defensive replacement late in games or who knows, he could wind up taking it from Hayes all together. Other names to consider here are Nick Gonzales, he probably doesn’t have the arm to play there, but he’s shown himself capable in a pinch and you have to put Nick Yorke in there too although I have to tell you, the people I talk to in Boston who followed his entire minor league career were shocked to hear the Pirates put him there even as a try. Isiah Kiner-Falefa can handle the hot corner too, but it’s not his best spot, neither is the one he’ll likely start at for that matter.
Depth Likely in MiLB – Tristan Gray is a waiver pickup from the A’s, he’s shown power but think what you probably should have Jake Lamb last year. Malcom Nunez is a player fans have long hoped would evolve into a First Baseman but the team has almost exclusively played him at 3B. Emmanuel Valdez, newly acquired from the Red Sox is a left handed option who can play the infield anywhere but short really, I could see him sneaking his way onto the roster and if need be, this would be a position he could hold down for a bit.
Short Stop
Presumptive Starter – Isiah Kiner-Falefa has to be the leader in the clubhouse, if only because we watched them use him there after the move of Oneil Cruz to Centerfield, and they’ve stated they plan to use him there. Thing is though, they’ll hardly be the first team to try him there, he’s only under team control for 2025, meaning there is incentive to find his replacement, and ultimately, they too will come to find he simply isn’t good enough to be an everyday short stop. ALL that said, I believe this is where we’ll start.
Alternates Likely on the Roster – To me, the best option is Jared Triolo. The glove will absolutely play there and I believe his floor to be right around Jordy Mercer‘s ceiling. We’ve seen the team try Nick Gonzales there and the feelings about his range and arm strength that we were warned about, well, honestly, I’ll just say he showed there better than we were lead to believe was in there. I don’t see them doing this, but you have to count Oneil Cruz here too. Not that I think he’s going to fail in center, but if short stop struggles enough and let’s say they’ve gone and procured another corner with capability, bottom line, let’s leave room for it, even if it’s not likely. The last off the wall option is to potentially move Hayes there, he could handle the spot, and his bat might play there better than it does at 3B. The Pirates used Nick Yorke there once in AAA, I don’t believe this to be a realistic position for him.
Depth Likely in MiLB – Liover Peguero is your best bet at a close to the league, internal solution. He bulked a bit last year, and if he’s not careful this offseason, he’ll bulk himself right out of this position in which case he’ll add his hat to the second base conglomeration of players. Alika Williams is probably the best fielding option of the group, but we’ve now seen the stick not produce anything in MLB twice. There simply isn’t any power there, at best he becomes a glove first on base machine, and frankly I haven’t seen that kind of history in his body of work. Lastly, Tsung-Che Cheng, protected from the Rule 5 Draft in 2024, Cheng didn’t manage to progress beyond AA, and while he’ll likely start the season in AAA this time around, I’m not sure how earned it is. Talented kid, but I don’t see him as all that close to making it.
Second Base
Presumptive Starter – Nick Gonzales is easily the front runner for this gig. He was last year as well before Jared Triolo won the job out of camp, so I’m not sure I’d feel like the incumbent if I’m Nick, but he really should have the inside track.
Alternates Likely on the Roster – Jared Triolo, if the stick plays he’s the type of player who you’re going to find at bats for, and again, it’s not without precedent that he’d find his way back to starting somewhere, including second base. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, should he lose the handle on short stop could see himself migrate back to what many see as his best spot on the diamond.
Depth Likely in MiLB – Liover Peguero could be part of this mix, he’s again not managed to stick in the Bigs, and while he has the talent to play short stop, he’s not had a clean defensive journey in the minors, which often means a position change is on the horizon. I can add Cheng here again and I could probably mention Valdez too for many of the same reasons I just did. Until they stop trying it, you have to add Ji Hwan Bae here. As much as I’m ready to just give up on the infield with him and go full outfield, the team isn’t, so here he sits. I’d also add Andres Alvarez but he’s a long shot to wrestle away any playing time here. Spencer Horwitz can play second base, but not all that well, and remember why he did so at all, he was blocked by Vladdy Junior at first, which is by far his best spot. Just cause a guy can play a spot, or has, doesn’t mean they should.
First Base
Presumptive Starter – Spencer Horwitz is clearly the answer to the test, at least the Pirates hope so, and he’ll be given every opportunity to prove it. I understand the platoon implications of his splits, but a couple thoughts there. First, I’m not sure the Blue Jays really tried all that hard to see him face enough in order to evolve and second, if he is a platoon, 75% of MLB pitchers are right handed, so, you’d prefer to have that locked in than the alternative.
Alternates Likely on the Roster – This is going to be a longer list because the Pirates have a bunch of options, it’s part of why they felt comfortable letting Connor Joe walk. Bryan Reynolds could very well get time over there, Jared Triolo, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Billy Cook, Nick Yorke, Endy Rodriguez and those are just the guys we’ve seen over there, I won’t even touch on the guys like Andrew McCutchen, Henry Davis or Joey Bart that fans have proposed, but you’d be right to think they could be potential help there.
Depth Likely in MiLB – Emmanual Valdez could probably be a backup, but he wouldn’t work as a platoon partner as he’s left handed. If you want a longshot, look to 2022 draft pick Nick Cimillo who is in AA Altoona and will likely start there. I’d fully expect the team to acquire another NRI type here, if only to fill out AAA.
Center Field
Presumptive Starter – It’s going to be Oneil Cruz. I could see them looking to bring in a defensive type but it’s more likely whomever they acquire for corner outfield has some overflow skill and can fill in when Cruz needs a blow.
Alternates Likely on the Roster – Bryan Reynolds, yes, yes, he’s not the defender you want out there, but he’s competent, capable of filling in and will be called on if they don’t roster someone else with the skill set. We’ve already seen the team try Jack Suwinski and Joshua Palacios there, so they could both pitch in there but the thing is I don’t see both of these guys making the team, not out of camp anyway. I personally believe Jared Triolo could play Center, but that’s just how much faith I have in his fielding ability, not something anyone on the club has pointed me to.
Depth Likely in MiLB – Obviously if I’m right, one of Suwinski or Palacios will be the first layer of depth here. Then you have to go with the obvious, Ji Hwan Bae, Sammy Siani and yeah, I’ll go there, Matt Gorski.
Right Field
Presumptive Starter – In my mind, this should be Bryan Reynolds. Almost no matter what they do with filling the corner outfield spot, Reynolds is going to play better in Right field and considering moving him to Right was the plan entering camp last year, I believe we’ll see them resume that effort. If I’m wrong, hey, shrug, he’s gonna start one of these spots and you can just transpose them.
Alternates Likely on the Roster – Again, Jack or Palacios have to be the representatives until or if they upgrade, but Nick Yorke, Billy Cook and even Emmanuel Valdez could all see playing time, or even win a starting gig out there.
Depth Likely in MiLB – I still think you have to do some math here. Cook, Yorke, Suwinski, Palacios and Valdez are not all making this team, in fact, I’d be shocked if more than 2 of them did, so obviously the ones who don’t become depth. Add in Sammy Siani and Matt Gorski again for good measure and there you go.
Left Field
Presumptive Starter – If I had to pick right now, I’m probably going with Nick Yorke or Jack Suwinski. I know many have closed the door to Jack, but, there’s a lot of power there, and this team desperately needs it. If they don’t do anything, he has to be considered.
Alternates Likely on the Roster – Pretty much the same as right field, but if Nick Yorke wins the gig, his arm probably plays in Right better than left, so Bryan Reynolds would likely slide back over in that case, whereas Jack would allow you to slide Bryan to right and feel like you have a decent defensive outfield.
Depth Likely in MiLB – It’s boring, but what I said for right field, same cast of characters, same usage ideas.
Catcher
Presumptive Starter – Joey Bart enters camp as the starter, until or if he’s dethroned. He’s not a sure thing, no matter how bad you want him to be. He’s never played more than 97 games in MLB in a season, and in his 80 games last year he bested his totals from that campaign. Doesn’t mean I’m predicting failure, just means don’t start writing obits for Henry or Endy quite yet.
Alternates Likely on the Roster – Any of Endy Rodriguez, Henry Davis or Jason Delay could serve as the backup, and I suppose there is a world in which two of them make the team especially if they see position flexibility with Rodriguez or Davis.
Depth Likely in MiLB – Whomever doesn’t make it from this group obviously. I just don’t believe in anyone else who’s close. Carter Bins could get a shot in a pinch, but I believe he’s a DFA candidate as soon as the position’s health would clear up.
Lineups
So, let’s assume what we see is what we get and I’m not going to waste time on DH, that’s Cutch and whoever else is hitting well or a matchup screams for their deployment. This is going to be what I’d do with the pieces we have, not what I expect the Pirates to do. If I’m playing that game, all I can say is we’ll see the first duplicate in like May.
VS Right Handed Pitching
1 Ke’Bryan Hayes – 3B
2 Bryan Reynolds – RF
3 Oneil Cruz – CF
4 Andrew McCutchen – DH
5 Spencer Horwitz – 1B
6 Joey Bart – C
7 Nick Gonzales – 2B
8 Jack Suwinski – LF
9 Isiah Kiner-Falefa – SS
VS Left Handed Pitching
1 Ke’Bryan Hayes – 3B
2 Bryan Reynolds – RF
3 Oneil Cruz – CF
4 Andrew McCutchen – DH
5 Nick Gonzales – 2B
6 Joey Bart – C
7 Nick Yorke – LF
8 Billy Cook – 1B
9 Isiah Kiner-Falefa – SS
Obviously, again, we know Derek Shelton loves to shuffle, so even if I’m right, don’t worry.
The biggest struggle here was really picking a leadoff hitter, I’m just embracing Hayes as less of a power seeking hitter and more of a good at bat, on base guy, but let’s be real, it’s not great. IKF could work, but man, I just don’t believe in the bat despite his Toronto numbers in 2024. Cook or York aren’t fast enough, neither is Horwitz. Cruz needs to be in the heart of this order, they simply have to have the power where it counts most.
Bottom line, they need more help. Power would be nice, but I wouldn’t mind finding a corner outfielder who can be a legit leadoff type either, if they aren’t going to add the power we all see as being needed, they at least need to add more table setters so the power they do have can produce more runs, more often.
Still time to add, still options out there they can afford, either by signing or trading, but the fit here is key.
Hope this “state of the union” helps you cut through the noise or the blanket thinking about the payroll figure, it’s simply not ever going to impress you, but you can see the lineup as it sits isn’t light years away from at least looking like a potentially productive unit.
Ok Gary. U got me fired up for Pirate baseball n its still 2 months awsy.
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