Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – Does it all come down to coaching?

1-20-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Pirates Fest for the second straight year was at the David L. Lawrence Convention Center, and this year, spread out over 2 days.

A whole lot happened, some of which I’ll mention here, some I’ll write about separately if only because they have me thinking of bigger concepts that aren’t appropriate for this piece.

I often think about what happens when social media protests, or tough online talk meet real life, and to a degree, I got to see it. I also got to see players extremely put off by it. The funny thing is, the owner and GM were very much so the targets, but lost in all that is a room full of guys who don’t think they represent “not trying”.

That’s always something that winds up becoming apparent in these things. The setting isn’t conducive to the goal many of these protesters want to achieve.

Let’s go!

1. Kids Don’t See What We See

This was easily my biggest takeaway.

Pirates Fest is really at its core for the kids. It’s built to get kids near players, activities and to form their own connection to the game. Some get to take a swing against Paul Skenes, others get a smile and handshake from Andrew McCutchen.

Almost none of them know who Bob Nutting is, and almost no parents want to stop the kids from having fun to explain it to them. That’s largely what the Sell the Team stuff brought to the party generally speaking.

I heard kids asking their parents why they didn’t want the free T-shirt outside before I even entered the event. I also saw some who took one and their parents told them not to put it on largely because they know how uncomfortable that would be when meeting players.

When a chant tried to break out at the Q&A, the few kids who were there were left largely confused. Certainly didn’t understand why Greg Brown sounded like their English teacher scolding the class for acting up.

I don’t mean this to say they shouldn’t have protested. I just mean it to say, all this accomplished in this instance was to confuse kids, irritate players (some of which we supposedly want to convince to stay here), and get the team president to once again affirm Bob Ain’t Selling.

Lost causes are causes too.

I will say, those who were protesting showed respect for this by in large. Meaning, if someone just looked like they wanted to walk past and enjoy the event, they were left alone. The Q&A is really the only time it was truly apparent once you were inside anyway that anything was going on and like him or how he handled it or not, Greg Brown put a stop to it relatively quickly. There were some “edgy” questions here and there, but nothing too shocking.

The “you never ask the tough questions” crowd though, they were delivered a first hand example of why those questions don’t get asked. Because they don’t get answers, they get shut down, disavowed and moved on from.

That’s all I really have on this for now. What these fans are doing, well, I may think it’s like trying to saw down a tree with a toothbrush, but you have to respect that they’re doing more than just bitching online.

I’d imagine we’ll see another ramp up for the Home Opener of some sort, and the 50% Yankees Fan audience will get a nice chuckle out of it I’m sure, but rest assured, Bob isn’t selling, the team already thinks they’re getting better regardless of what you think they should do and they’ll either be right or you will.

The thing I’m most curious about is what happens if the team is right? My guess, it lingers, but dwindles in participation either way.

Trying to advance a movement by ignoring the single biggest gathering of Pirates fans outside of a game would be silly, but kids being a good third of the audience, probably not ideal for effectiveness.

It’s like showing up to the Christmas Market in Market Square with signs that Santa isn’t real. You’re probably going to create confused kids and irritated parents, more so than converts to your cause.

2. Company Men?

“I think we have a responsibility to do that to the city and within the organization,” Skenes said. “There are a lot of people who put a lot of work into it. We’ve got really good people within this organization, within player development, within the front office, stuff like that. I think we owe it to them. … If you go out and sign the [Shohei] Ohtanis, maybe it becomes a little bit easier — he’s Ohtani for a reason — but there’s no reason we can’t play fundamental baseball and execute at a very high level without having players like that. It’s not a complicated game.”

Paul Skenes is either, stupid, lying, toting the company line, or he’s right.

We don’t have to know which, because right now what’s important is what he believes. Consistently he’s pointed to his belief in what the team is doing, where they are, and how simply closing out games “they should have won” will change everything.

The players, Paul included of course, aren’t using words like competitive, or getting better, they’re using words like playoffs. It’s clear that’s their goal for 2025, and it’s also clear it’s what they think they can achieve.

Don’t get me wrong, every Spring we hear our team come together and talk about how high they’re reaching. Even in 2021 when it was clear they’d be competitive for worst record in baseball they’d talk about believing in the room and the team and the young talent and, well, you get the point.

The difference is, this isn’t the 2021 roster.

How about listening to Bryan Reynolds?

Again, with the finish. Finish games. Finish the season. A lot of what he saw last year was what he called young guys “weathering a season”.

He also plans to step up as a vocal leader more. “I’m not going to change who I am and get in the middle of the clubhouse and scream and holler and do all that,” Reynolds said. “But, I think I got better at it last year too, just keep building that and saying things when they need to get said, little things here and there.”

He also called for a more consistent lineup. Maybe the first place he’ll be vocal is with Shelton.

He also said “I think everybody knows this is the best it’s been since I’ve been here”.

Two leaders of this team, both as responsible as anyone on the roster for the belief they have enough to accomplish one of their goals, making the playoffs.

This roster is not nearly as bleak as the offseason has felt, at least according to the players.

3. Baseball Economics

I wrote a long piece about this early in the offseason. If you didn’t read it, it touches on a ton of concepts and really paints the picture of where this league is right now.

It’s in depth and covers the concept well. It was also written back in November, meaning none of the suppositions in there gather in all the intel from what the Dodgers have done with the rest of the offseason.

I put that there, because this isn’t a subject that deserves to be short changed. Read it if you like, if not, let me just list off some basic truths we should all get our arms around.

• There can be no cap without a floor and aggressive revenue sharing, ever. For the same reasons, there can be no floor without a cap and aggressive revenue sharing. Remember, a cap system isn’t about ensuring every team makes the same amount of revenue, it’s about ensuring every team can build their team with the same tools. As it stands now, we’re asking 20 teams to build with Tinker Toys what 10 teams are building with AI assisted engineering and nano particles.
• The Revenue Sharing aspect needs help. Without a league wide TV deal in place, it’s near impossible to balance the books. The continuing death of cable TV will take care of this over time for everyone but a couple, but for now, far too many teams have their own negotiated contractual situations.
• Ticket sales have very little to do with the overall revenue figures. Yes, it’s true the Pirates made their best revenues when their payroll was at it’s highest, but the team was also good. Largely spawned by cheap extensions, some strategic signings and built on the backs of years of losing squads. Even then, it wasn’t a lot higher than a 100 loss season.
• The payroll will go up this year. It’ll be higher than it was in 2024 (I’ve been told they have a 100 million dollar budget this year), and 2026 will be more than 2025. So on and so on. This team can spend more, they just aren’t going to spend more on the way there. Argue it all you like, but this is a team that simply isn’t going to jump 30 million in a season. Frankly, most teams aren’t. There is a top to all this. Meaning there will again come a day when they don’t feel they can afford all the arbitration figures, but we’re 4-5 years away from that, and that largely depends on how much things change, or don’t for that matter with the game economically speaking.
• Keep in mind, the “budget” is for the entire season. Last year Cherington didn’t like being so close to his budget at the deadline and felt handcuffed to improve the team by it. For that reason, I expect them to enter the season at around 90-95 million, hoping he has room to add with more freedom. I also can’t say whether Bob would allow him to push in more chips when the time comes, but I know he didn’t last year.
• There is no path to a Salary Cap System that won’t cost at least half a season if not more. Every major sports league in the country has shown this. Also, players will never “agree” to it. Owners set the rules. Bottom line, if there are enough owners that feel the league can’t continue like this, the players will either relent over time or eventually the league will return with scabs until the players start trickling back. Sounds cruel, sucks for fans, but there is no path to these sides negotiating this stuff in an offseason without pain.

4. The Dodgers Still Have to Play Games

When you build a “super team” the thing is you still have to go out and win the games. Every series the Dodgers play this year, they’ll be expected to win. They’ll get no grace for injuries, they’ll get no benefit of doubt for a skid. They have to go out and beat a very capable Padres team, hold off a young and hungry Giants squad and stay ahead of the Diamondbacks who didn’t exactly take a step back this offseason themselves. And that’s just in their division.

They’ll have every team in the league approach a series with them like it’s their World Series.

Look, they’re plenty equipped to do it. They should run rough shot over this league and win at least 100 games in the regular season, but bottom line, they have to go play the games.

If they slip, any of those 3 teams could steal what they clearly are tying to buy.

Obvious stuff right? Well, this is why we play the games. It’s the same reason you can’t just assume your team will finish where you think they line up. Remember that devastatingly bad Pirates team who swept the Dodgers back in 2021 and went on to lose 100 games?

Make no mistake though, the Dodgers have done what no other team could. All they’ve done that’s “special” is decide they don’t need half a billion in profit, they’ll settle for 400 million. LOL

The game is still played on the field, and 29 other teams will enter the season feeling their roster isn’t the best in baseball….on paper.

That said, 25 or so believe they can win.

One day, regardless of what the league does to their economics, the Dodgers will pay on the field prices for what they’ve done. When they have 7 or 8 guys in their late 30’s or early 40’s making a ton of money for how they performed when they were 30. If they did this right, they’ll be able to sop up tears with 4 or 5 championship banners though.

This offseason and what the Dodgers have done is almost just as much an admission they know the league is going to change as it is an attempt to build a dynasty. A thumb in the nose of anyone who can’t keep up is a sure fire way to admit you know knives are already out so your actions no longer matter. No sense in not pissing off teams you know for damn sure are already angry and plotting. And I don’t even mean a cap is for sure coming, I just mean the league isn’t just going to allow things to go on like this. Change will come, and the Dodgers know it. Or at least know it’s likely. Grandfathering in many of these deals after rule changes is inevitable.

Until then, they’ll wear a target on their backs and it won’t be a sponsorship from Target.

5. Two Young Teams Look to Flip the NL Central Upside Down

The Reds and Pirates are on an incredibly parallel track.

Both teams tore down their previous failed attempts to win early in the decade. Both teams massed young talent all around the diamond. Both have big armed, high pedigree rotations. Both have questions all over the field preventing them from being seen as a locked in contender, but both with potential to show up and produce.

One team, the Reds, decided to add a future hall of fame coach to remove all doubt that coaching was the issue. One team didn’t.

That may very well come down to the difference.

The Pirates are probably further ahead on the mound, the Reds are probably a bit farther ahead in the field.

Neither team has the money to layer a lineup full of veterans overtop of the youngsters they’re trying to onboard. Sure, they could both do it for a year or two, but they’ll both face the same financial challenges as arbitration and extension price tags come due.

The bill always comes due in MLB. Even the teams in the low end of the spending spectrum eventually have to pony up, at least to where they’re capable.

Again, the Reds realized their success relies heavily on turning these young players into players the rest of the league wishes they had and in that effort they brought in a coach in Tito who’s done it before.

The Pirates are rolling the dice that they have the right man in place, even as they’ve watched him not accomplish it in his first 5 seasons at the helm.

I know which one I’d place my bet on, and personally, I think the Pirates have the better side of this effort fleshed out with the pitching. These two teams will in many ways be the measuring stick for each other’s progress through the end of the decade.

Through many things like the league becoming more and more economically divided, and incompetent ownership groups, to the legendary rivalry of the 70’s between the Lumber Company and the Big Red Machine, these teams are true rivals and we should be staring down the barrel at half a decade of these two being the thorn in each other’s side.