Why Not Alex Verdugo?

2-5-25 – By Josh Booth – @bridge2buctober on X

THE SET UP

From 2021 through 2024, there are 32 left-handed hitters to have 1,500 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.

I think it’s fair to assume that getting 1,500 plate appearances in 4 years means you’re playing a reasonable amount to have started a large chunk of that.

If you look at OPS, you’ll have exactly who you think is in the top 10. Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Freddie Freeman, Rafael Devers, Matt Olson, Kyle Schwarber, Jose Ramirez, Bryan Reynolds, Joc Pederson, and Christian Yelich. None of those should be a surprise to anyone reading this.

There are only 2 players at the bottom who are under a .700 OPS: Carlos Santana (.674) and Adam Frazier (.690). A former Bucco, who is known to hit LHP better, and a returning Pirate who many assume his best days are behind him.

But there’s one guy just under Francisco Lindor (.785) and right above Anthony Santander (.772): Alex Verdugo (.773). Verdugo has been linked to the Pirates this offseason and is one of the remaining free agent outfielders still available. I’ve seen a lot of comments lately that may be underestimating this player’s value and ability. So, let’s look at some of the numbers.

First off, Verdugo is not a power guy, yet he is sandwiched between two guys who have hit 69 (Lindor) and 91 (Santander) home runs against RHP in the last 4 years. Verdugo has 44, which is 24th on this list of 32 players. So, this would not be a move to get power in the lineup. That could have been a move to get Joc Pederson earlier this offseason, who has hit 4 less HR against RHP than Bryan Reynolds in 300 less ABs; 73. It also could have been Santander, who I mentioned before.

WHAT’S GOOD?

Doubles, on the other hand, is something Alex Verdugo excels at. Only Freddie Freeman (118) has more doubles than Verdugo’s 112.

Verdugo has the 4th most hits (444) on this list of 32, as well. He’s #6 on this list in batting average (.279).

But there are two numbers that really stick out to me, when I looked at this list.

Only 4 players on this list have struck out less than Verdugo (251): Jose Ramirez (228), Adam Frazier (207), Jeff McNeil (181), and the most obvious Luis Arraez (91).

The Pirates were 27th in MLB in strike outs last season. They’ve added Horwitz, who had an 18% K rate last year, and deemed Isiah Kiner-Falefa the starting shortstop, who had a 15.7% K rate last year. They also brought in Adam Frazier for a bench role, who had a career worse K rate last year of only 20.1%; a career 13.6% K rate.

Bringing in Verdugo, with his 15% K rate in 2024, would make sense if they’re trying to limit strike outs.
Verdugo has a 15.1% K rate for his career.

The other stat is something I may be reaching a bit for. Verdugo also ranked #1 of 32 in sacrifice flies with 21. So, with less than 2 outs and a runner on third, he’s scoring the runner. The reason I consider that reaching is because this is a counting stat. If he got more chances, it would make sense to have more accumulated. So, let’s look closer.

We are leaving the platoon conversation behind at this point. Let’s look overall.

WE HAVE A PROBLEM

How many times did the Pirates have a man on third with less than 2 outs and that man was stranded? Well, the Pirates had a 29th ranked .276 BA in this situation. With 285 chances, the Pirates struck out 65 times, a 22.8% K rate (19th). The league average was 20.6%. The ball in play % was 65.6% (27th) which was 4.7% below league average (70.3%). That is not a recipe for scoring runs.

How about Verdugo with less than 2 outs and a runner on 3rd base?

PA	Balls In Play (%)	BA	SF	K (%)	BB (%)	Pitches	Whiffs
33	30 (90.9%)	.333	9	1 (3%)	2 (6.1%)	109	8

Let’s bring the platoon conversation back. We’re looking at the Pirates LHB vs RHP and Verdugo against RHP. Same runner on 3rd, less than 2 outs.

STAT	PIRATES LHB	VERDUGO
Plate Appearances	85	20
Batting Average (Rank)	.344 (12)	.462
Strike Out % (Rank)	23.5% (20)	0%
Sac Flies (Rank)	11 (19)	7
Ball-in-Play % (Rank)	65.9% (20)	100%

That’s not a typo. Against RHP, he put the ball in play all 20 PA with a runner on 3rd with less than 2 outs. The only Pirates to do this last season were Ji Hwan Bae (4), Isiah Kiner-Falefa (3 with the Pirates), and Nick Yorke (2).

SO, WHAT?

The Pirates may not sign Alex Verdugo. The chance of them chasing after a guy and coming up short appears to be pretty good the past few years.

If they do, though, it may not be a bad move if the Pirates want to improve in some of the areas they struggled offensively.

This is not a bad target. I think you could put this guy in the lineup against RHP and, for example, Billy Cook against LHP. You could have a very valuable platoon option in right field. By the way, that is a good thing. Platoons done well are a positive for a team, not the opposite narrative that gets tossed around your local social media feed.

In my first post on this site last season, I said the following:

“When I go down a rabbit hole digging into the data, I want one of two things to happen from that information: It should either back me up or shut me up.”

I think there’s enough here to say it shut me up.

CONCLUSION

Alex Verdugo can be a quality signing for the 2025 Pirates, if they decide to get it done. I’m not saying he’s the key link to winning the division. We all know where we are in the offseason and what this team looks like with days away from pitchers and catchers reporting. I am, however, saying that he’s a good player who had a down 2024. Maybe the no beard look? Maybe an allergic reaction to his batting gloves? (not a joke) Maybe it was just as simple as the difficulty of playing in the Bronx; he certainly wouldn’t be the first or the last. But he’s a good player who has a good shot at a big bounce back season. The rest of his career shows he’s capable.

And most of all, he brings some abilities to the table that this team actually needs.

Think about it.