Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – Ready or Not, Here Comes Baseball

2-10-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

After an offseason filled with demands, questions and angst, there’s no avoiding that baseball is back as pitchers and catchers report across the league. Teams can still add of course, trades can still take place, but one way or another, you’re days away from the bright sunlight of Bradenton exposing for everyone to see exactly what you thought was good enough.

What should be turns into what is.

No matter what we wanted them to do. No matter what they decided to do to build around the very real high end talent they have. At some point you have to put it on the field and see what it does.

That’s….Almost….where we are.

1. It’s Not Just Money

The Pirates signed two role players recently, Adam Frazier and Tommy Pham. Yeah, I’ve heard all about how underwhelmed you are, me too.

My thing is, if you were going to go cheap, why not go get a guy like Kike Hernandez who just re-upped with the Dodgers. He gives you a viable backup short stop, can play the outfield if you’d like, 3B, whatever. Has a ton of playoff experience and experience in a championship room. Not a great player by any stretch, but he’s a professional hitter who’s used to riding the pine and being effective when called upon.

Listen, it’s not like I’ve pined for this guy all offseason. It’s not even like I believe he’s a huge difference maker. It’s just that to me he’s a better fit for what they’re trying to find.

Had they signed Hernandez, believe me, I know better than to assume he’d be accepted as a “good” signing by this fan base. Hell, I probably would have treated it as a just ok addition when I wrote it up. But for similar money to what they wound up doing, I’m simply saying it could have been spent more effectively.

Hernandez loves playing in LA and he’s a relative folk hero there for his playoff excellence year after year, so who knows what it takes to have him happily accept going elsewhere, but to me, they aren’t even shopping for guys who could really help them, instead opting for place holders, prioritizing guys who could or should be beaten out for playing time over guys who could be capable depth.

I can blame Bob Nutting for things just as easily as 75% of commenters, but this sort of stuff, that’s not on him, that’s on a GM who simply doesn’t seem to see additions to this club the way just about everyone else does.

I’m anxious to meet our backup short stop. I’m not sure they or I could even hazard a guess as to who he is.

I’d care a lot less if I thought the starter was a good choice.

2. The Position Players

As I see it now, this roster is largely in place.

You get 13 spots.

Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Spencer Horwitz, Joey Bart, Tommy Pham and Andrew McCutchen seem to be the for sures.

That’s 8 of the 13.

So 5 more spots.

Second base will be either Nick Gonzales or Nick Yorke so that brings you to 4. Adam Frazier will be a bench bat, that’s 3.

You have to have another outfielder, that’s Jack Suwinski or Billy Cook or Josh Palacios most likely, and now you’re at 2.

Have to have a backup catcher, so you’re looking at Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez or Jason Delay which leaves you with 1 more spot and it better be someone who can do a bunch of stuff, which leads me to believe Jared Triolo will get the nod.

There’s a very easy path to having one “prospect/young guy” break camp. Think about it. If Yorke doesn’t beat out Gonzales and the team decided they’d rather not have Cook sitting around we could see almost all the youth start in AAA. That’s fine if you think you have all the spots filled well, but that’s not really where we are.

A typical lineup of:
1 SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa
2 LF Bryan Reyonlds
3 CF Oneil Cruz
4 RF Pham/Suwinski
5 C Joey Bart
6 2B Nick Gonzales
7 1B Spender Horwitz
8 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes
9 DH Andrew McCutchen

This could be the baseline. The order isn’t all that important for this discussion.

Not on paper what I’d hoped, but RF remains the biggest hole you know is there.

Again, I think this could have been executed better, without even asking for much more money to be spent.

3. You Need More Than Number Ones

The Pirates haven’t done a terribly good job translating top picks into promising baseball players through the years.

Frankly, what happened before Ben Cherington means zilch here for me. I’d like to see how much success they’ve had with the picks he has made. I can get on him for not developing Quinn Priester or Cole Tucker or whomever you like, but as it comes to holding a GM accountable, I’ll keep it to his picks, and what he and his team have done with them.

The 2020 Draft
This draft if you remember was during COVID, and was reduced to 5 rounds. For the Pirates that was 6 selections, one being a Comp pick at the end of the first round.

From this draft the Pirates have had Nick Gonzales (7th overall – 1st Round), Carmen Mlodzinski (31 overall – Comp Round), and Jared Jones (44 overall – 2nd Round) debut and contribute.
Now entering 2025 all 3 are likely to make the team, and all 3 are likely to get significant opportunity.

3 out of 6, one (Nick Garcia) moved for Connor Joe a couple years back, is a damn good outcome for a 5-6 round draft.

The 2021 Draft
This was a draft that Ben Cherington did well to sign guys in lower draft slots than many in the league felt wise, allowing them to ink several top ranked prospects from the clutches of going to college.

Henry Davis (1 overall – 1st Round) is the only member of this class to have debuted. Their second rounders Anthony Solometo (37 overall – 2nd round) and Lonnie White (64 overall – Comp Round) are in some degree of struggle. White hasn’t progressed due to injury largely and Solometo has had some tinkering issues, but he was a known project when selected.

They also picked up Bubba Chandler (72 overall – 3rd Round) and he is an MLB Top 100 prospect and very likely to make the club during 2025.

There are some other interesting prospects, some you could even see this year, but none I’d bother examining here.

The 2022 Draft
Nobody from this draft should be expected to be here yet, but they have one or two who could push.

Termarr Johnson (4 overall – 1st Round), Thomas Harrington (36 overall – Comp Round), Hunter Barco (44 overall – 2nd Round), Jack Brannigan (83 overall – 3rd round) could all be here as early as late this year and they should all be pushing heading into 2026.

This has a chance to be a very special class.

I should also add Michael Kennedy (110 overall – 4th Round) was dealt in part of the package for Spencer Horwitz.

There are others, but you’re lucky beyond the 4th round.

The 2023 Draft
It’s insane we have someone from this draft, not only the here, but the Rookie of the Year who started the All Star Game. Don’t hold all these kids to that standard.

Paul Skenes (1 overall – 1st Round) of course. Mitch Jebb (42 overall – 2nd Round), Zander Mueth (67 overall – Comp Round), Garret Forrester (73 overall – 3rd Round) dealt to Miami in part for Brian De La Cruz, and again, there are others, but it’s just too early to talk to.

Solid chance Mueth adds his name to the Top 100 conversation in the coming years.

I’m not even going to touch 2024, as interesting as Konnor Griffin looks, he’s years away and so is everyone else.

We’ve had 2 drafts where you should realistically expect to see talent reaching the majors and we’ve seen 5 guys debut from 3 of them to varying degrees of good.

Ideally, you start seeing more of these 5th rounders or 12th rounders spark to life and become contributors.

Yeah, step one is getting your top picks to land, but low spending teams who are actually good at this, well, they manage to land many of those and get help from later rounds that at the very least turn into tradable assets.

4. Give Me a Reason for Optimism

I get asked this question all the time. I specialize in telling you the up and the down, the left and the right of a given situation, and I suppose the outlook on the 2025 upcoming season should be no different.

I’ve spent plenty of time telling you what I’m worried about, or don’t like, probably not as much about what I am genuinely excited about.

So here goes.

• Depth – They may not have a lot of locked down positions, but unlike most other seasons along this journey, they have 2 or 3 guys backing up positions all over the field that have at the very least interesting players being held back. This isn’t like the days when Michael Chavis was starting and maybe blocking Mason Martin if you wanted to be creative.
• Pitching Staff and Coaching – Oscar Marin has already done a pretty good job with his staff, but adding Brent Strom adds another layer of developmental excellence. On top of that, they truly have top flight talent on the mound. Hard throwers with a ton of spin and diverse pitch mixes with ability to add to their repertoire. Regardless of what’s happened offensively this offseason, this unit has the potential to average holding opponents under 3 runs per game.
• Next Steps – Second and third year MLB players aren’t always a positive, but they almost always move in one direction or the other. This will be the second or third year for a host of players this year. An opportunity for a big step or step back, but either way, answers. You can’t move on or settle in until you get them, and we’re on the cusp of some of that. This is how doors get opened up for other youngsters.

That’s what I got. It isn’t much. I don’t see a conceivable way this team as a whole takes a step back in 2025, but how much ground they gain will be tied to these three bullets.

5. What Does the Last Straw for Shelton Look Like?

I have to believe a losing record this year ends his tenure in Pittsburgh but there are other things to look for too.

Allowing loyalty to dictate who does what and when in the lineup or bullpen will likely lead to his dismissal after the season.

Ignoring suddenly vocal about normalizing a lineup wishes from key players could lead to a fracture in his biggest area of support, the room.

Stubbornly marrying platoons and completely ignoring streaks or solid efforts day to day. I believe this was directly mentioned by the GM following the season that they needed to start finding different answers for why players play and when.

Watching his team make fundamental errors at the plate, basepaths or field and not coaching his players into making fewer unforced errors. Throw to the right base, hit the ball to the correct side, get a ball in the air if you have a duck on the pond, you know, fundamental baseball. Something this team has done poorly since Joey Cora left taking with him the defensive numbers that stunned many of us back in 2020 for being so damn good.

I believe he also needs to stop entering game 3 of a series tied 1-1 and still fielding a Sunday lineup. This team needs to win series, right now, not save juice for later. Same goes for if they have a sweep on the table, go get the sweep, don’t just be satisfied with winning the series. Win what you can as it comes, if it leaves your guys dead on their feet come August, well, at least maybe it’ll matter they got tired. Coach these games as he has, you’ll have the most rested team in the league that is guaranteed to start vacation in a month.

Lastly, it’s his career, he needs to own it. Stop accepting what the GM gives you, and start demanding what he gives you. Within reason. Meaning, say it’s May, you’ve given Adam Frazier 95 at bats and he’s hitting like .187. Don’t just accept you have to deal with it, go tell the sumbitch to get Yorke or Cook up here. Enough. And if you can’t do that because you’d get fired, well, honestly buddy you aren’t going to win here anyway or last, so you might as well demand what you need. At least you can say you did.