Bucs Prospect Watch: Jhonny Severino & Duce Gourson

3-19-25 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on X

Jhonny Severino was perhaps among the most intriguing & somehow stealthiest breakout in the organization. Duce Gourson is one of the more under the radar draft class members in 2024. So where do they stand in the pecking order of Bucs Prospects heading into 2025? We will try to parse that out and touch on what makes these two players worthy of a Bucs Prospect Watch look.

Jhonny B. Goode

Severino checks a few integral boxes. He is young at just 19, he is big, listed at 6’2” & 185lbs, there is plenty of space to pack pass on that frame. Just applying the eye test here, I’d say there is no way he was 185lbs right now either. All one has to do is take a look at Orioles uber-prospect Samuel Basallo to realize that these listed weights are eye-wash. If that kid is 180lbs, I will print this article out, slather it in hot sauce and eat it. Moving on from that aside, Jhonny had a standout year at the Complex level when it comes to production. Take a look at what he did with his 220 PAs.

10 HR, 12 2B, 3 3B, 39 runs scored, 41 RBI, 12 steals, slashed .291/.373/.545, .918 OPS

Pretty darn impressive production that had him tied for the most homers and in the top 15 by wOBA and wRC+ in the league. Impressive enough that he earned himself a call-up to A ball as the calendar flipped from July to August 2024.

Jhonny Dangerously

Upon arriving in A ball, Pirate fans began to see why Severino is very much still a project. 

The very alluring 11.8/15.9 BB/K% ratio from the Complex deteriorated to an eyebrow raising 6.5/30.1 BB/K% ratio. His swinging strike% leapt from 10.8 to 18.1. The contact% dipped a full ten percentage points from 76.9 to 66.9%. And the batted ball data leaves quite a bit to be desired:

EV: 83.6
90%: 101
MAX: 106.7
Brl%: 4.2
Hard Hit%: 30.6
xDamage: .477

While the three levels of EV data are all underwhelming, the xDamage is an encouraging throughline. In my opinion, this was more or less adjustment period lump-taking. He chased too much, well above what would be MLB average, and whiffed too much. Simply put, the transition is not always easy.

Despite the struggles, Severino still produced well at A ball. The swing & miss exposed his developing hit tool, but the power is real. His .263 ISO, .357 wOBA, .477 xDamage, & 119 wRC+ in the face of his struggles is encouraging.

Not without warts, but Jhonny Severino is one of the more intriguing bats in the organization. 2025 should be pivotal for him. Should he adjust quickly through A ball and A+, his stock will soar. Even if he does not, he will be just 20 years old. The tools are enticing & his leash will be long.

Who is Duce Gourson?

Ethan “Duce” Gourson was selected 264th overall by the Pirates out of UCLA. Gourson started all 3 years for the Bruins before entering the 2024 draft. In his college career Gourson posted a .918 OPS, 21 HRs, stole 28 bases, and slashed .300/.435/.484 across 786 PAs.

We’ve got limited professional data to draw from on Gourson, he played just 22 total pro games. 11 games in A ball, where he was clearly more advanced than his peers, and 11 games in A+. Greensboro saw Gourson meet his match as he struggled to produce. However, we can still draw some encouraging signs from these stops. Particularly when looking at his plate approach.

Across both A/A+ Gourson only chased outside of the zone a paltry 14% of pitches he offered at and had a 9.6% swinging strike rate to go with it. Along with his zone judgement, his contact rate was 74% & his zone contact rate settled at 83.6%. Needless to say, his small early returns indicate that the approach and bat to ball skill from UCLA showed up in his first taste of professional ball.

Now each of these stops saw him accrue minimal batted ball events, probably too small for any batted ball data to be very “sticky.” But what data is available from Bradenton had him with an MLB average (89 mph) EV with below MLB average 90th/MAX EVs. We will get a lot more information on Duce this year, to be sure. There may not be much over-the-fence thump here, but for a 9th round selection, there is plenty to be excited about in Gourson’s future development. I am looking forward to seeing his advanced approach and ability to make contact play out over a full season.