Stuck in the Middle With You

3-24-25 – By Jud Verno – @JV_PITT on X

Opening day is in sight. It’s close enough to smell the peanuts and hear someone shout one of my favorite sentences: “Cold beer here”. 

Soon, we’ll be putting on some sunscreen and dusting off our baseball gloves to take to the ballpark. We’ll be refreshing X daily to get a glimpse of today’s lineup card. Some will be filling out their own score cards. 

As the sounds and optimism of spring training wind down, the opening day roster is becoming less fuzzy. Most of the spots are now clear, with only one or two spots still a mystery.

This past Saturday (March 22nd), we learned of a few more players that got optioned to minor league camp: Henry Davis, Nick Yorke and Billy Cooke.  I’d like to take a look at one of those players and how I think the Bucs are making a mistake. 

When we see that line up card on March 27th, the two names that will be behind the future Cy Young Winner, Paul Skenes will be Isiah Kiner-Falefa at short and Nick Gonzales at second. 

And it shouldn’t be.

The mistake I am talking about here? Nick Yorke should be opening the season at 2B, moving Nick the Stick to SS.

In my opinion. 

To paraphrase former President Bill Clinton, “It’s about the offense, stupid”.

Let’s start with Isiah Kiner-Falefa

IKF has carved himself a solid career and I, in no way, want to diminish that. He’s a solid all around guy to have around.

He hits a little.

Can play just about anywhere in a pinch.

And I mean anywhere.

Over his career he’s played at SS, 2B, 3B, LF, RF and CF. He’s pitched six innings. And a lot of fans won’t believe me, but he has 586 innings behind the dish. 

How he’s never played 1B is kind of a mystery and I would lay money that someday he takes an inning there. A fielder’s version of “hitting for the cycle” so to speak? 

Sounds great right? And it is, that kind of flexibility is nice to have…on the bench. 

First off, SS is simply not his best position. I don’t want to get too lost in defensive metrics in this (truth be told, Gonzales isn’t winning any Gold Gloves at SS either). IKF’s OAA (outs above average) at SS has never been great. Topping off at a high of one run, which he did twice. 

But it’s the bat folks. 

Yes, he had a fantastic half  season before the Bucs gobbled him up at the July Trade Deadline last year. That line?

.292/.338/.420  .758 OPS  with a wRC+ of 118

Sadly, that run is a complete outlier for IKF. His lifetime slash line tells a different story. 

.262/.313/.351  .664 OPS and a wRC+ of 83

If he was a wizard at SS that slash line wouldn’t be a huge problem. But he just isn’t that guy. 

OK, maybe his projections at PNC will be better  than his career mean? Here’s ZiPS projections for IKF.

.262/.307/.346  .654  wRC+ 81

With 5 HR and 18 doubles.

I understand that projections rarely play out. But at 30 years old, he’s a finished product with a history that states one very specific thing: he just isn’t a guy that will produce runs for the Pittsburgh Pirates. 

Now Nick the Stick Gonzales 

As we dig into Nick’s projections, one thing to keep in mind is this is the bat that would be in the lineup anyway. The Bucs have him at 2B, which is the better overall fit, no doubt about that.  I’m not suggesting moving him to SS permanently. But until something better comes along? I think this SHOULD have been the plan. 

Can he play SS? He can. He isn’t gonna wow us but he isn’t far behind IKF at all. It’s even entirely possible that he will be a hair better moving forward considering age. 

But can I refer to the paraphrased quote above? “It’s about the offense, stupid”?

In 94 games in his first full season, Nick had a promising slash line. 

.270/.311/.398  .709  wRC+ 94

In those 94 , Nick hit 7 HR and 19 doubles. With a slight bump and 150+ games, it’s not out of the question he could have a 15-20 HR season accompanied with 30+ doubles.  I’d be over the moon if he could hit those numbers.

What do the 2025 ZiPS projections suggest? 

.264/.324/.422  .746 wRC+ 105

A solid enough line. ZiPS also projects he plays  121 games hitting  11 HR and 22 doubles. If Nick stays healthy and plays in 150+ games could that line be bumped  to 15 HR and 30 doubles? We can dream. Either way I’d be happy with that production. 

New Yorke, New Yorke

Another 2024 Trade Deadline acquisition and one that I thought was a sneaky good trade by GM Ben Cherington (credit where credit is due). The “other Nick” was at one time a universal top-100 prospect.  After losing steam and being “demoted,” some sites bumped him back on their lists after a resurgent 2024. 

The late season call up didn’t produce a large enough sample size to discuss so let’s get right to the ZiPS projections.

ZiPS has him playing 124 games:

.246/.307/.357   .665 wRC+ 91

They also have him hitting 10 HR and 24 doubles over those 124 games. 

The difference in offense isn’t huge. 5 more HR. 6 more doubles. They also have Yorke down for 11 more runs and 12 more RBI. 

It’s modest, and I get that. But there could be one or two more wins in that production. 

And even a modest bump in power puts more pressure on the opposition’s pitching staff.

What ZiPS doesn’t show? The upside that Yorke provides; the possibility that his game translates better and quicker. 

Streamers, for example, has a better projection for Yorke. They have him playing in 54 games, and if we projected that to a full season? 

.258/.324/.390  .714 wRC+ 98

Hitting 12 HR and 27 doubles.  I’m not saying he would do that but the potential to do it is real. 

So what’s my point then?  Simply stated, Nick Yorke offers something that IKF doesn’t. Offensive upside. Isn’t this the reason they acquired him in the first place? Offense? 

So why wait to get that production into the lineup when the other option has a proven and limited offensive output?

I mean, after all, “It’s about the offense, stupid.”