3-25-25 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on X; Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
As the season gets ready to ramp up, we peer once more into our crystal ball to make some predictions for the division. We had some hits and some misses when we tried this last year but we are 100% confident that we will DEFINITELY get some picks right this time around… probably.
Corey’s Picks:
2025 NL Central Champions: Chicago Cubs
Chicago has a lot going for themselves on the cusp of 2025. Featuring a potent lineup that is now anchored by a true superstar in Kyle Tucker, this Cubs group appears to be a playoff contender. Relying on uber-prospects like Crow-Armstrong and Shaw in the mix adds a layer of uncertainty (for better and worse), but there is a solid floor of talent in place to help weather adjustment period rough patches. The pitching side sees two frontline starters in Steele & Imanaga with a less sturdy rest of the rotation. Matthew Boyd flashed some very promising juice in Cleveland in 2024. If he can carry that into 2025 it will make a big difference for this club. The bullpen for Chicago has been revamped into what looks like a strong group for 2025 too. This is the club to beat in my opinion.
NL Central Awards
Most Valuable Player: Jackson Chourio
Cy Young: Paul Skenes
Rookie of the Year: Matt Shaw
Most Improved: Garrett Mitchell
Comeback Player: Matt McLain
Fireman of the Year: Ryan Helsley
The NL Central boasts some very high end talent right now. Selecting these superlatives was not that easy at all. The MVP race looks to me to be a three way affair between Kyle Tucker, Elly de La Cruz, & Jackson Chourio. I am going with the youngest of the three as he looks every bit of the megastar many expected at just the tender age of 21 on opening day.
For Cy Young it would be foolish not to take the chalk. Paul Skenes is that guy. My Darkhorse pick here would be Hunter Greene, but I am not sure it will be close in the end. Skenes all the way.
ROY is another one that should prove to be a close affair. Matt Shaw is my pick for his status as an every day player and an elite prospect. Bubba Chandler certainly has as good of odds as anyone. It will be a matter of getting the innings to put together enough of a body of work to take the title.Brewers newcomer Caleb Durbin could be a dark horse here, but without breaking camp in Milwaukee that seems a bit far fetched. Other possibles: Quinn Mathews, Tink Hence, Logan Henderson, Gage Workman, Thomas Harrington, or Nick Yorke.
Most Improved has so many options it is a “pick your poison” task. Garrett Mitchell has been a favorite prospect of mine for some time and I think 2025 we see him blossom into an every day CF.
Comeback player for me has an overwhelming favorite in Matt McLain. Sidelined by a litany of injuries in 2024, McLain is poised to become a well-above average MLB regular again in 2025.
Fireman of the Year feels “safe” with Ryan Helsley. There is a talented crop of back end bullpen arms here such as Trevor Megill, Ryan Pressly, David Bednar, Porter Hodge, Tony Santillan, and up and comers like Craig Yoho or Zach Maxwell. Helsley seems like a lock to me.
All NL Central First Team
C: William Contreras
1B: Willson Conteras
2B: Matt McLain
SS: Elly de La Cruz
3B: Ke’Bryan Hayes
OF: Kyle Tucker
OF: Oneil Cruz
OF: Jackson Chourio
DH: Alec Burleson
SP: Paul Skenes, Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Hunter Greene, Sonny Gray
RP: Ryan Helsley, Trevor Megill, Porter Hodge
All NL Central Second Team
C: Ivan Herrera
1B: Michael Busch
2B: Brice Turang
SS: Dansby Swanson
3B: Matt Shaw
OF: Pete Crow-Armstrong
OF: Bryan Reynolds
OF: Garrett Mitchell
DH/UT: Gage Workman
SP: Freddy Peralta, Nick Lodolo, Mitch Keller, Brady Singer, Bubba Chandler
RP: Tony Santillan, Craig Yoho, Ryan Pressly
Michael’s Picks:
2025 NL Central Champions: Chicago Cubs
I don’t think I hated a trade in recent history – including many an ill-fated Pirates transaction – than I did when the Cubs managed to bring Kyle Tucker over from Houston this offseason. The Cubs ranked 12th in runs scored last season but 21st in home runs. Bringing in a legit power threat who also happens to be a five-tool player to essentially replace the on-again, off-again Cody Bellinger has HUGE upside for Chicago. Additionally, shoring up the bullpen with Ryan Pressly with Porter Hodge as a closer-in-waiting can seriously shorten games. A bounce-back season from Justin Steele, another step forward for Shota Imanaga and more pieces pushing this team over the top, I hate to say it but I think Cubbies Blue will take the Central crown in 2025.
NL Central Awards
Most Valuable Player: Elly da la Cruz
Cy Young: Paul Skenes
Rookie of the Year: Matt Shaw
Most Improved: Alex Burleson
Comeback Player: Jack Suwinski
Fireman of the Year: Ryan Helsley
Corey and I might have a good amount of overlap but differing out of the box on MVP. I was strongly in the anti-Elly camp last year, not believing in his ability to produce given his strikeout issues but after a season where he slugged 25 home runs while stealing 67 bases in his age-22 campaign, it’s hard to bet against this guy. He’s also playing above-average defense at a critical position. Oh, and he has been on a TEAR this spring, slashing .409/.519/.773 over 54 plate appearances this spring with 4 home runs and 6 stolen bases. Dude could have a 40-40 campaign.
On the Cy Young front, ditto to what Corey said. Skenes is a unicorn and let’s just thank the Gods of baseball that he is going to wear black and gold for the foreseeable future.
I also picked Shaw for Rookie of the Year. Bubba likely contends for this depending on when he arrives in the show but Shaw has the benefit of being here already and has some flashy tools after flying through the Cubs minor league system. The 13th overall pick in 2023 posted a .284/.379/.488 triple slash over 523 between AA and AAA last season with 21 home runs and 31 steals.
Most Improved and Comeback Player have some similarities. One is a guy still looking to prove he can do it and the other is a guy looking to show that he can do it again. Burleson hasn’t been able to really find his groove with St. Louis. After posting below-average wRC+ his first full season in MLB, Burleson slugged 21 home runs last year with a .734 OPS. I feel like his ceiling is MUCH higher than that and he should be able to focus solely on hitting (split time last season at 1B and OF) now that he is the Cardinals DH.
Suwinski had about as bad a 2024 as was humanly possible. After slugging 45 home runs over his first two seasons and showing some steps forward over that span, Suwinski regressed hard batting .182 and posting a .588 OPS over 277 plate appearances, getting optioned to Indy partway through the season and continuing to struggle there. Despite that, Jack has had a VERY strong spring (1.022 OPS and 7 extra base hits over 45 plate appearances) and looks poised to rebound and provide some much-needed pop to this Pirates lineup.
Helsley was one of my reliever picks from last year and the dude just has great stuff, leading MLB in saves in 2024 with a 2.04 ERA over a career-high 66.1 innings. I don’t think he repeats that level of success but I think he has a good chance to still be the best in the division at least this year.
All NL Central First Team
C: William Contreras
1B: Willson Conteras
2B: Brendon Donovan
SS: Elly de La Cruz
3B: Matt Shaw
OF: Kyle Tucker
OF: Bryan Reynolds
OF: Jackson Chourio
DH: Alec Burleson
SP: Paul Skenes, Shota Imanaga, Hunter Greene, Sonny Gray, Freddy Peralta
RP: Ryan Helsley, Ryan Pressly, Porter Hodge
All NL Central Second Team
C: Joey Bart
1B: Rhys Hoskins
2B: Nick Gonzales
SS: Joey Ortiz
3B: Gavin Lux
OF: Lars Nootbaar
OF: Oneil Cruz
OF: Ian Happ
DH/UT: Seiya Suzuki
SP: Justin Steele, Bubba Chandler, Mitch Keller, Brandon Woodruff, Tink Hence
RP: Trevor Megill, Dennis Santana, Graham Ashcraft
Did we name someone you think is about to go off in 2025 or maybe a few names who you think are guaranteed to be duds?
Let us know your thoughts as we head into another long year of baseball.
Steel City Pirates 