2024 All NL Central Futures, Predictions, & Superlatives

3-28-24 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on X; Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

With the full 2024 regular season about to open today, Thursday, March 28th, I wanted to
put together some NL Central specific predictions. Fellow contributor, Michael, and I will dust off the ol’ crystal ball, toss the I Ching, read the
tea leaves, unsheath the divining rod, etc and put forth our guesses at NL Central
Champions, award winners, and First & Second Team All NL Central teams.

Corey’s Picks:

2024 NL Central Champions: Chicago Cubs
The Cubs seem best positioned at the outset of 2024 so I am selecting them as my pre-
season NL Central winners. They’re returning much of their team from 2023 as well as
bringing in former top prospect, Michael Busch, and Japanese standout Shota Imanaga.
While the division is very close, I think the Cubs boast the most solid MLB core and the
best crop of near-MLB prospects in Cade Horton, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Matt Shaw,
Brennen Davis, Alexander Canario, Kevin Alcantara, Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski,
Matt Mervis, & Haydn McGeary all in the upper minors.

NL Central Awards
Most Valuable Player: Oneil Cruz
Cy Young: Freddy Peralta
Rookie of the Year: Jackson Chourio
Fireman of the Year: Ryan Helsley
Most Improved: Alec Burleson
Comeback Player: Oneil Cruz

MVP pick is based solely on vibes for me. Perhaps it is wishcasting, but I think we see
the big fella actualize his offensive potential in 2024. This prediction would also have me
double dipping for Cruz to take home Comeback Player of the year as well.
For NL Central Cy Young & ROY I am going to the Beer Makers. Freddy Peralta took a
big leap forward in 2023 and he’s got a chance to exceed those numbers this season.
Freddy is one of the premier strikeout artists in the Central. I think he and Mitch Keller
will duel it out for the NLC Cy Young mantle in 2024. When it comes to ROY, Jackson
Chourio is the chalk pick but it doesn’t seem worthwhile to pick against it. His debut might not be as flashy as the most recent crop (Jrod, BWJ, Carroll, Adley), but he is
more than capable of having that type of impact right away.
A twin pair of RedBirds are set to take down my MIP & Fireman of the Year awards. It is
entirely possible that Burleson cannot hold on to a job long enough to fulfill this one. But
Burleson has had a strong spring and has the runway for an everyday role due to other
injured Cardinals. There has never been much doubt about his ability to hit so it will be
up to him to take a role and run with it. And lastly, Ryan Helsley is my choice for best
RP in 2024. He showed massive potential in his 2 fWAR reliever season in 2022 and
missed a decent chunk of time in 2023 and was still able to throw up a1.5 fWAR. Just a
bet on him remaining healthy and making a run at another 2+ fWAR RP season.
Beyond just award winners, I wanted to take a stab at some “All Division” teams.
Here is how I see these shaking out for the upcoming season:

All NL Central First Team
C: William Contreras
1B: Paul Goldschmidt
2B: Nico Hoerner
SS: Oneil Cruz
3B: Ke’Bryan Hayes
OF: Bryan Reynolds
OF: Christian Yelich
OF: Cody Bellinger
DH/UT: Christopher Morel
SP: Justin Steele, Mitch Keller, Sonny Gray, Freddy Peralta, Shota Imanaga
RP: David Bednar, Ryan Helsley, Adbert Alzolay

All NL Central Second Team
C: Henry Davis
1B: Christian Encarnarcion-Strand
2B: Nolan Gorman
SS: Elly de La Cruz
3B: Nolan Arenado
OF: Seiya Suzuki
OF: Jordan Walker
OF: Jack Suwinski
DH/UT: Willy Adames
SP: Hunter Greene, DL Hall, Steven Matz, Nick Lodolo, Jared Jones
RP: Arolids Chapman, Alexis Diaz, Julian Merriweather

Michael’s Picks

I tried to avoid homerism in my picks but, I will admit, I have a hard time believing in
some of these teams – especially with a run of injuries impacting Devin Williams, Sonny
Gray and basically half of the Reds roster. I don’t think any of the teams (Pirates
included) made the necessary improvements to cement themselves as front-runner for
this division so it’s going to come down to a bit of luck, health and depth in order for a
team to emerge atop the NL Central this year.

2024 NL Central Champions: Milwaukee Brewers

NL Central Awards
Most Valuable Player: Ke’Bryan Hayes
Cy Young: Justin Steele
Rookie of the Year: Jared Jones
Most Improved: Henry Davis
Comeback Player: Oneil Cruz
Fireman of the Year: Aroldis Chapman

Hayes could be the MVP just off his defensive metrics but from August 8 th forward last
year, he posted a .317/.356/.577 slash with a 146 wRC+. Over a full season, that wRC+
would have ranked 9 th best in baseball between Juan Soto and Bryce Harper. He’s
continued that offensive surge this spring and I believe (no, #KELIEVE) that he can
keep it going throughout the 2024 season.
Steele got better K/BB numbers late in the season, living in the zone and got hit a bit
due to fatigue. Don’t think that will be a problem this year. Jones is ELITE! He’s likely
going to get shut down at some point in the season due to innings but if the innings he
throws are with the Pirates, he could make a run at this one.
Davis has shown improvement this spring on both sides of the ball. Not a complete
catcher yet but he underperformed so much last year that he should easily be most
improved for 2024. Cruz is Cruz. If I need to explain, you’re not paying attention.
Chapman had the 2nd best K% (41.4%, behind only Felix Bautista) among all pitchers
with at least 200 batters faced. He’ll walk batters and give up occasional long-ball but
he’s moved to an optimal park and has the best defender in baseball on the left side of
the infield.

All NL Central First Team
C: William Contreras
1B: Rhys Hoskins
2B: Nico Hoerner
SS: Oneil Cruz
3B: Ke’Bryan Hayes
OF: Ian Happ
OF: Bryan Reynolds
OF: Seiya Suzuki
DH: Nolan Gorman
SP: Justin Steele, Freddy Peralta, Mitch Keller, Shota Imanaga, Sonny Gray
RP: David Bednar, Ryan Helsley, Alexis Diaz

All NL Central Second Team
C: Willson Contreras
1B: Paul Goldschmidt
2B: Brendan Donovan
SS: Dansby Swanson
3B: Nolan Arenado
OF: Christian Yelich
OF: Jack Suwinski
OF: Jordan Walker
DH: Andrew McCutchen
SP: Miles Mikolas, Hunter Greene, Jared Jones, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott
RP: Aroldis Chapman, Joel Payamps, Hector Neris

This was a really fun exercise and I can’t wait to look back at these when it is all said
and done and see how close (or awfully wrong) we might have been. Feel free to drop
your own predictions in the comments! Baseball season is right around the corner and it looks like there will be a lot of fun in the NL Central!

Will we be right? Will we be very wrong? Somewhere in between? We’ve got 162 games over a VERY long season to find out. Until then, let us know your predictions as we all enjoy the ride.

Let’s Go Bucs!