3-27-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter
The Pirates roster was settled early in relation to every other Spring in the Cherington/Shelton Era, but that hasn’t eliminated all the questions. Tonight, I’m going to tackle quite a few of yours.
Lets Go.
Question 1
If Paul Skenes does everything that the Pirates need him to do in Indy then when do you think is the earliest we see him in Pittsburgh? – JGor492
Give me your Paul Skenes debut date? – Panther Pride
I guess most people are thinking of this in this fashion. Paul gets in whatever work he’s asked to do, the Pirates pass the first arbitrary date (April 12th) and immediately can call him up to get the extra year of control. By the way, if MLB really wanted to change manipulation, this date is much more painful than 2 weeks, but I digress. Or of course Super 2 because Bob Cheap.
I’m not here to deny he’s cheap, or to say that extra year doesn’t matter, but it’s a fool’s errand to guess beyond those two dates.
I can say Jared Jones should give you hope that those dates sure as hell aren’t always in the way of giving a kid a shot when he’s ready. At least not where the team is now, two years ago, zero chance Jones is in Miami. Now, why not, you want the best of what you got when you think you can win with them, and right or wrong, smart or stupid they think that’s now.
The other thing people don’t like thinking about is that the team probably wouldn’t mind seeing a guy like Ortiz climb back out of the pen, or Quinn Priester to take a step. There’s nothing wrong with that, Quinn has been a top prospect himself, Ortiz is still exciting if he figures a couple things out.
None of them are Skenes, but if it even smells like pushing they’ll quickly pick from the list I just scratched the surface of.
So when? I don’t know, but I’ll tell you one thing, it’s not worth discussing until he’s thrown 5 innings 2 or 3 times in a row.
Question 2
Which of theses players (if any) will be on the roster 1 year from now. Triolo, Peguero, Bae, Gonzales. Assuming Johnson continues to develop. – Jasper Jesterstein
I assume you mean 26-man AKA Active Roster. If so, I’d only guarantee Triolo, he’s the only one I guaranteed prior to Spring too. This season could certainly tell a different story. There’s every possibility Peggy, Bae or Gonzales could be moved, and there’s no guarantee at all they make the big club let alone stick there.
If you meant the 40, I doubt any of them would fall that far on their own, but if Cheng or Johnson leapfrog the group, and both are certainly capable, I’m sure we’ll see them move on from a couple. Probably too early to say quite yet.
Question 3
In the light of the Will Smith extension similar to Ohtani with most money deferred, would it be wise for the Pirates to step into that arena? And do you think more future contracts will be this way, or will a stop be put to them? – Longbeards
I love this question, even if minutes later Longbeards would come to realize that he had fallen for a joke. Still, super interesting thing to look at. The way MLB has this stuff structured, you have to be able to show the money is in an account once a year. Basically you have to be capable of proving you can pay up if you need to.
Bob Nutting is a rich man, but I don’t believe that equals liquidity. He’s worth more than the cash he can quickly come up with in other words. I could see it, but not in mass quantities.
The Dodgers are owned by a hedge fund, meaning all they do is deal in transactions so enough to cover every cent they owe Ohtani is a phone call away and during the time they don’t have to keep it in an account they double or triple the capital in investments.
They are one of the very few teams who could possibly do this to the degree they’ve done it.
Do I think the league will put a stop to it? Well, yeah, but I think this league will eventually have a Salary Cap system, and while you can allow some small deferments and structure it however you like, I can’t see it as sustainable to allow circumventing of whatever structure they would put together that would allow for this level of abuse.
I’d bet on this but Ohtani took all the action already.
Question 4
What is your best and worst case scenarios for this season? This to me in the rare Pirates season where I don’t see, barring something catastrophic, a 90-plus loss campaign lol – Nick Cammuso
Worst case scenario is mass injury, because with mass injury comes not answering questions about who is and who isn’t part of the puzzle here. Say Bryan Reynolds gets hurt, well, that sucks for obvious reasons of course, but it doesn’t prevent you from believing he’s part of this thing, you’ve seen enough to know, and you know they have him signed, same for Hayes, or Keller. Now, if it’s Cruz or Davis, especially early, well, the former gets labeled injury prone and the latter still hasn’t caught a lot and now it’s an open competition with Endy and we’re not sure who will do what.
Starting pitching injuries, especially the UCL variety will change the outlook of just about everything. Keller, Jones, Skenes and you’re right back to hoping the next wave provides, and probably earlier than they should. Yeah, It’s injury.
I’m probably being deeper than you were looking for here. Worst case on the record, assuming general good health, 70 wins, best case I’d probably go no higher than 90, it just feels to me like they’ll probably start out a bit slow on the mound, regardless of any other factor so reaching 90 would involve a ton of really good things happening.
Question 5
Not Pirates specific but what are you feelings towards errors as a stat in the modern game? Should we take them at face value knowing full well they are subjective? What defensive stats would you look at instead? – Patrick Bradford-Kenney
It’s been BS for quite some time. Home scorekeepers will credit a hit on a hard ground ball if the home team’s MVP is up to hit and the fielder booted something he really should have had. You know all the biases in there that take place, there’s a ton of that in baseball, and there always have been. Now we have the benefit of slowing it down and seeing it even more clearly.
It’s one of those things that silently drives every baseball fan nuts, it also tends to even out over a season. At least that’s what players say.
Personally, I go with Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average more than anything. Both of those have issues too, but at least they aren’t based on an arbitrary and quickly made decision made by a biased statistician.
I will say baseball does go back and correct them on occasion, sometimes awarding a hitter a hit or a fielder an error and taking the hit away. I’m sure some slip through the cracks.
It’s not an entirely invaluable stat, you still don’t want to see 15-20 from a guy, because even if they’re wrong sometimes, it’s unlikely a guy is getting screwed that many times.
The best test though sometimes is just the old fashioned eye test I suppose. Like, Hayes had 12 errors in 2022, but he also had 24 Defensive runs saved and if you watched him in 2022, you can’t seriously think he was egregiously better in 2023 when he won the Gold Glove.
Yeah, Defensive Runs Saved, Outs Above Replacement, those are my tops, unless the Error numbers are crazy high.
Question 6
Real basic and simple one, no curve ball or stupid ones like “Why dont they sign Trevor Bauer?!?!” Or “Is Henry gonna go to Triple-A?!?!”. Gary, are you, yourself looking forward to this season? – Neal Kokiko
Absolutely, but I am every year. Ask anyone who’s read my stuff for this whole time. I like progress and as long as they’re making it, I’m typically pretty happy with a fresh season starting.
It’s ramped up this year for sure. It feels wonderful not predicting a losing season for the first time doing this. So yeah, I’m pumped.
Question 7
How many starts for Falter before he gets sent to the bullpen or DFA’d? – FStover1
Maybe 1.
I think he’ll be an opener and probably for Luis Ortiz and even if he survives I could see them have Ortiz open and let him follow next time through. In fact I wouldn’t assume this is more than leaving a spot, telling everyone he’s the starter with no details just in the effort of gamesmanship, not that anyone is going to freak out and sit their lefty bopper because you started Falter, but if they get a one time only advantage of bringing in Ortiz in the second inning to face a lineup built to face a lefty and it never works again, cool.
We’ve seen pitchers get beat up in Spring and then turn it around in the regular season like Jose Quintana, not that I’m assigning that destiny to Falter, but hey, if he does the job, we’ll see.
Really the best thing I can say is, Falter is the low bar, clearly as we start here. Anyone who performs better could replace him and the Pirates don’t need to make any crazy moves to get it done.
So, a week, 2, maybe a month, all of the above.
Question 8
Two parts: do we see Solometo & Chandler with the Bucs this year? If we do, is that a good or a bad thing? – Jack Mycka
Really doubt it with Chandler, they already have enough congestion near the top here, and I can’t see them rushing him like that. Solometo, maybe, I think that would be a bit of a stretch too. If we got to that point, I’d have to say they’d been decimated by injury and if they’re that beaten up you’re looking at a Waiver pickup.
Part of the way they’ve structured this thing is going to require them to pump the brakes a bit on speeding everyone through. Even as we speak we’re potentially looking at congestion building.
Don’t get me wrong, cream will rise to the top and not everyone will make it but you don’t want to force the issue either.
Question 9
Another newbie question from me, hope you don’t mind. What’s considered the hardest field position to play? – Edward Beckham
The best athletes gravitate to Short Stop and Center Field and they’re both difficult, Pitcher is of course insanely hard, but not in the Spirit of what you’re asking. Catcher is easily the most involved. They have to squat for 9 innings every game, hit, run, take foul balls off just about every square inch of their body, study the hitters, receive the ball “quietly” or frame pitches into the zone, and understand his pitcher’s stuff that night, in the moment.
Catchers have in my mind the hardest job, and it’s part of why it takes such a special player to field the position and hit at the same time. That’s a lot to think about, let alone studying how to face the opposing pitchers and keep their own swing mechanics healthy.
I’d say your best athlete is probably your Short Stop or Center Fielder, but the hardest position that isn’t pitching has to be Catcher for my take anyway.
Question 10
Is there a 0% chance or a 1-2% chance the Pirates sign Mike Clevinger (or Rich Hill) or any other unsigned starting pitchers? – Sean’s Ramblings
I don’t believe they have any interest in Rich Hill, and something is up with Mike Clevinger, there are lots of teams desperate to bring in pitching depth and nobody is taking. I also think they have better, well, better bets internally to fill this role and soon. I was all for them getting a pitcher for this rotation that is a sure fire MLB arm, but at this point, let’s just work with what we have, there’s enough options right here and close to just play it out. Adjust at the deadline if you need more.
Question 11
Do you think Keller has fallen too much in love with the cutter and gone away from his sinker? His sinker with high velocity turned his career around. End of last season and ST he is throwing it like 60%. It has caused more walks despite having decent swing and miss rates. – Krid
Oh yes, and he does this every once in a while during the season too. I will say this, his arm has stayed healthy, and he’s done a ton of pitching. Maybe throwing that cutter more and leaning less on the slider or sweeper which is more taxing on the elbow is part of why.
I’m just guessing but when you see a guy do something that obviously doesn’t work as well as what he shows all the time he CAN do, it makes me feel like there’s probably a reason for it that we can’t see.
It could also be StatCast simply not recognizing what pitches are which. He could be just playing with the RPMs on his breaking stuff, or maybe wants to get more velocity versus certain hitters, or who knows, maybe he’s just playing with one pitch in the Spring he really wants to nail.
I will say, Mitch is better when he focuses on his best stuff and sprinkles in the other stuff, that said, maybe he’s trying to make that less so by improving one of his trouble spots. I’m sure it’s a bit of a dance once you get to this level and have some performance under your belt.
Question 12
What will the SP roster look like in July? – Jason Byrnes
I think the Pirates would love that answer to be Keller, Perez, Gonzales, Jones and Falter/Ortiz. You think I’m kidding but teams aren’t just waiting for a name, they won’t kick anyone on this roster out of bed for eating crackers if they’re winning.
Personally, I think we’ll see Keller, Perez, Gonzales, Jones and Skenes. But who the hell knows? Injuries could knock 4 of these guys out. It’s really better to look at the list of possibilities you think could be in play this year and resign yourself to the fact
Question 13
What team do you think will be the biggest challenge for the Pirates to win against, this season? – Brenden Zielinski
Probably the Cubs, in the division anyway. It’s too easy to say the Dodgers or Braves, something like that. The Cubs can hit and at least for a while, outhitting the Pirates might be the best way to beat them. Cubs can, especially in their ballpark.
Truthfully though Brenden, they really should enter every series thinking they could take it, that’s what an over .500 team does.
Question 14
Does Jared Jones actually have a higher ceiling than Mitch Keller? Not that he’d be better NOW, but could he be better in the next few seasons? – Ed Fleming
His stuff says so, but Keller has learned to pitch too. Jones has quite a lot of work to do and room to go before he approaches his ceiling, and honestly, Keller probably has a bit to go for his. Will Jones be a sure fire number 1 or 2 pitcher, well I’d like to think so, but man, I’ve watched a ton of guys with great stuff get taught a lesson by this league and some don’t fight back.
Jones has the makeup of someone who will, but he also has to show a lot of things we haven’t seen. getting deep into games, carrying a full season workload, getting through rotations more than twice.
Keller was at top ten prospect in all of baseball at one point, I’d simply ask you to not forget his journey to get where he is, and remember it’s not all that untypical.
Question 15
What ways can we watch games and see if the game strategy is ‘gelling’ and having a positive effect on the team? – Douglas Smith
If they score 8 games on Thursday and then get 1 hit the next, it’ll remind me an awful lot of what Andy Haines offense looked like in Milwaukee when he had a stable full of horses. Pittsburgh is close to that setup now, and while I’ve heard some acknowledgement from players that they need to embrace small ball here and there to get the most out of their talent, I didn’t see it this Spring.
I still see guys leading off with doubles and not even getting moved to third, let alone scoring. I still see gimacky delayed steal efforts when a fly ball will do.
If the gameplan is homer homer pitch, ok, they need even more power. If it’s get guys on base and hit homers, ok, they better get more power. This team needs to show us their identity before I can wonder if they’re sticking to it.
Positivity to me would be seeing guys make smart decisions at the plate. Move guys over and not just the guys “who can’t hit” but the guys who are supposed to hit homeruns too. Be productive all the time up and down the line and this team will score a bunch of runs more consistently.
I fear it’ll be more like Alika, Triolo, Taylor, Joe, Cutch are supposed to play like that while everyone else swings for the fences, to me, that won’t work, at least not as often as just playing good fundamental baseball.
Question 16
I see a lot of people commenting that German and Lauer are just getting in shape and will be called up as soon as they are ready. I was thinking they were just depth signings. What say you? – Kevin Monahan
Nah, I don’t think it’s that simple. Lauer had an awful year, German is a risk to even have a contract. I think they’ll both have to show something and the Pirates will have to have a clear need. Even so, it better be early because they have other ways to go with much more pedigree.
Question 17
Hypothetically the Pirates are in contention during the trade deadline, who are the potential trade candidates this year such as vets on the last year(s) of their contracts? I know it’ll be based on need then so basically any SPs, RPs, or position players – Jason Dowling
Usually guys who were rumored in the offseason but ultimately weren’t moved are available. So Alek Manoah, Vlad Jr, Luis Robert, Jonathan India, Shane Bieber, Jesus Luzardo, Freddy Peralta, Logan Gilbert, guys like that. How their teams and divisions perform these names could disappear and others could be added. There’s an awful lot that will happen from here to then, for instance, the Pirates could very well find first base as their biggest sore, or maybe a better backup catcher, perhaps for a playoff run they’d rather have a veteran and tested second baseman so Triolo can bounce around.
Any number of things we could be looking at. In fact 4/5 of this division could all be in the or close to the same position, then it might come down to who gives up the most, or who’s willing to anyway.
Question 18
If any starters struggle who do you think will be given a shot in the rotation first? – Don Jacobsen
Kinda covered this, but Ortiz, Priester, Peralta if it’s like next week (struggle won’t be that soon) but if it’s a month from now, Skenes is in play since that’s what you’re probably really wanting to know about.
Question 19
For Q&A. If Cruz continues on a pace to be a 30 HR guy, wouldn’t it make sense to put Cutch back at lead off like last year to put more guys on base for Cruz? Cutch, Reynolds , Hayes, Cruz, Davis, Jack, Triollo, Joe, Taylor Maybe – Wilbert Matthews
I could argue it makes sense right now. Analytics say get your best player the most at bats but the traditionalist in me wants to see him 3rd. Might see them flip flop them vs same handed ness but my guy says we’ll see a ton of Cruz at leadoff.
Question 20
Will Cruz Stay at SS all season. I know you won’t answer – Johnny B Goode
Nah, I’ll answer it, even for an obvious troll like you Johnny. You won’t read it I’m sure, but here goes anyhow.
I have no clue. I know they aren’t going to abandon it in like a month, but this was part of why his injury hurt so bad last year, we didn’t get to answer these questions about his defense.
If he plays this season to a pace of say 18-20 errors, I think he’ll finish the season there for the most part, but they’ll have to have some tough decisions this offseason. Moving him to another position is not going to happen in season, if anything he’d become a DH much more often and again, they’d have to have some tough decisions.
We’ll see, said all the same stuff last offseason.
See you online when you make your sure to be silly remark that I’ll ignore just like always.
Question 21
Pirates have started developing pitchers and middle infielders, but no one has been rising for the OF. Is it lack of drafting or developing them. – Mr. Derf
They’ve hardly selected any honestly. I mean, they have, but the first draft was very short on rounds, then they went very pitching heavy with infielders or catchers. There isn’t a lot of big philosophical reason beyond that.
I wish Matt Gorski or Matt Fraizer came along, and maybe they will yet. CSN for whatever reason they just don’t want to give a run to. Palacios was a stab. Suwinski has turned into something.
Hard to say brother, I know that sounds weird this far in, but I just don’t think they’ve invested much of their talent acquisition outside of international boards anyway. The OF they have brought in are children, so I think we have a ways to go before we decide they can’t do this or that.
Steel City Pirates 