Did This Pirates Opening Day Roster Improve on 2024’s?

3-25-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

If you’re here, and didn’t just leave me something stupid to laugh at in comment section, let’s lay out some ground rules for this discussion.

What I want to do today is simply and clearly compare the 2024 Opening Day Roster to the one it sure looks like they’ll trot out there to open 2025.

Sounds simple right? Well, as soon as I get started, I, You, Your Aunt Margie, all of us are immediately going to want to start blaming so and so for this or that, or excusing things because they can’t control them or pretending injuries didn’t happen….

Look, all that stuff is real, and it has a place. Just not right now, not until I’ve done the comp first completely unfiltered by how it happened.

So let’s get started and the question is simple, Which one is better?

Let’s start with the obvious, the overlaps.

Keller and Falter. Probably feel a bit better about Falter, probably flatline on Keller, meaning you know his baseline, and you expect it even if you hope for better.

Jones is out, Skenes is in. There’s an unfortunate thing to write, but for this little project, head to head, there’s no denying that’s an upgrade.

Heaney vs Perez, they’re probably relatively close actually, Heaney might be a touch more consistent. Carmen vs Marco, we never thought one would last and the other we never expected to see.

All in all, slight uptick from opening day last year.

Yeah, yeah, there’s more depth behind it this year, but that’s not what this is about. This is about a team that added Paul Skenes from one Opening Day to the next and only netted a slight upgrade in their rotation, on paper.

Let’s keep moving….

Now, I don’t know 100% this is the 2025 mix. Let’s get that from the start. They want to take their time, but I want to write about happy stuff on Opening Day, so I’m not waiting around.

There are 3 holdovers, Stratton, Bednar and Borucki. Hard to see Bednar as a change from last year, maybe the way we felt about him at the time. Borucki we liked and we still like right? Stratton was pretty good, still looks pretty good.

The big difference is no Chapman, now you get to add in Holderman and Santana, but you don’t have a power lefty, nor do you have someone who has successfully worn the closer role who isn’t named Bednar.

Still, it’s not much different, maybe it’s impossible to do this with a bullpen since you know it’ll change like 30+ times throughout the season.

I’ll call it a wash leaning toward a bit of a downturn, if only because losing Chapman cost them some proven “special” and security.

Ok, the pitching is down, so between my slight up on starters and slight down on relievers, let’s call it a draw.

Now the real fun….

OK, well for starters, we have two returning guys, Reynolds and Suwinski. Reynolds is old faithful at this point, and Jack, well, who the hell knows, but I said the same thing last year, so net even on those two.

I think Pham will hit more than Taylor, there, I said it. I think he’ll also play nowhere near as well in the field, so I said that too. Connor Joe it could be argued was more of a first baseman, but, we’ll leave him here and compare him to Bae. Completely different players, but I bet they contribute almost the same value. And of course Cruz, his defense is a question, but one we’ve seen some peeks at the answer for already, and his bat vs Olivares, please.

I know it’s not the popular narrative, but how can I see that as anything but decidedly better than last year? Yeah, it’s mostly based on a position change vs acquisition, but before you lose faith in my project here, we’ll pay for it in our next segment.

Ok, Rowdy vs Endy, we sure hope is an upgrade, but it has to be hope. So for now, we lean a bit that way and you’ll notice an extra slot here, that’s because our likely starting 1B is also our backup catcher, that’ll be fun, and tiring, and I bet it doesn’t last lo…….Hey, no fair, I’m cheating at my own game.

Triolo could also be the starter at 1B, but it would make sense for Endy to get the lion’s share and Jared will be needed elsewhere a lot too. Hard to not see Gonzales as an upgrade, at least with the stick at 2B.

Cruz for IKF? Yeah, that’s a no brainer downgrade, even if the defense improves with a downturn in errors.

Hayes is Hayes and he has all the same problems, just more evidence they won’t go away.

Frazier vs Williams, the fact I have to think about it should tell you how I feel about him on the roster.

Overall, I’d say downturn. A little up here and there, but can’t overcome the Cruz swap, nor did they try, but I digress.

Last but not least….

Every year Cutch plays could be the year he hits the wall entirely, but for now, it’s a wash. Bart over either Davis or Delay is an easy one. Endy beats out the previous backup easy, but how thin can they stretch him.

Bart makes this an upgrade, for now.

So for the offense, we have 2 slight upticks and one downturn. Probably pretty close to a wash.

So what does all this mean?

Well let’s tick the findings off…

• First, moving Oneil Cruz kinda had no impact. They plucked him from one hurting unit and moved him to another.

• The Vaunted pitching, well, it’s just about what it was last year to start.
• There are two personnel changes that had impact, Joey Bart coming in, Aroldis Chapman leaving.
• Not only did they not build around Paul Skenes, they just about stayed right where they were, barely any upward movement at all, even with his addition.

The truth is, if there is any optimism about this club, it’s the kids that could be coming. It’s the Bubba Chandler’s and Thomas Harrington’s. It’s the guys who could be coming off the Il like Jones and Oviedo, Moreta. It’s the offensive reinforcements we hope force their way into the dance like Yorke, and Cook and Henry. Nicolas, Burrows, Ashcraft…. you know, the group they decided to keep in MiLB for now.

Now if you want to reintroduce all the reasons things happened the way they did and give them grace for injuries or performances less than expected, have at it.

I’m just saying, when you want to understand why the fan base at large isn’t excited, well, here it is in unfiltered black and white. It looks like the same thing. Following two seasons of the same thing.

And there were so many ways to have it feel differently, from spending a bit, to spending more on one piece as opposed to 5 little ones, to just letting a kid people haven’t already given up on get an opportunity instead of a never was who probably still isn’t.

Take from this what you will. I don’t always write this stuff out, but this is something I make myself do every year.

I mean think about it, did this team, meaning just about everyone involved, not sound more positive they were headed to a winning season last year vs this year? No grand proclamations this year. Those have been replaced by the mantra that they simply have to do everything right.

Maybe management should try that out next offseason…