Series Preview: Pirates (1-3) at Rays (2-1)

3-31-25 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on X

The Bucs remain in the Sunshine State for series two of the 2025 season – this time, to square off with the Tampa Bay Rays. While Pittsburgh is coming off of a frustrating series against the Marlins, Tampa Bay is fresh off of a 2-1 series win versus Colorado.

Colorado gave them a good fight in the opening series keeping each game close. The Pirates will be looking to rebound here, and Game 1 is an intriguing matchup of converted relief pitchers (Mlodzinski vs Rasmussen). All eyes will be on how Mlodzinski’s stuff can hold up to the rigors of a starting role whereas Rasmussen has undeniably good stuff but has rarely been able to remain on the mound long enough to prove his efficacy over the course of a Major League season.

Runs may be tough to come by in this series with pitching being a major strength of this Rays club. Fortunately for the Pirates they will have staff ace, Paul Skenes (currently slated for game 3), and that always takes a heavy burden off of the offense. Old friend Shane Baz will toe the rubber in Game 2 for Tampa Bay and though his Major League output has also been limited by injury his track record is strong with a career 3.38 ERA & 1.08 WHIP.

Can the Pirates post enough offense to hang with the Rays? Their bats were kept mostly in check by Colorado, but there is firepower lurking in the Tampa Bay lineup. One of the bigger tasks for the Bucs will be to get on the board early. The Rays feature a deep bullpen capable of making an impact on any game with flame throwers Mason Montgomery, Hunter Bigge, Edwin Uceta, & Pete Fairbanks.

3/31
Pirates – Carmen Mlodzinski (R) (2024) – 5-5, 50.2 IP, 3.38 ERA, 46 Ks/19 walks, 1.18 WHIP
Rays– Drew Rasmussen (R) (2024) – 0-2, 28.2 IP, 2.83 ERA, 35 Ks/6 walks, 1.08 WHIP

4/1
Pirates – Undecided () –
Rays– Shane Baz (R) (2024) – 4-3, 79.1 IP, 3.06 ERA, 69 Ks/27 walks, 1.06 WHIP

4/2
Pirates – Paul Skenes (R) – 0-0, 5.1 IP, 3.38 ERA, 7 Ks/2 walks, 0.94 WHIP
Rays– Ryan Pepiot (R) – 0-0, 6IP, 1.50 ERA, 8 Ks/1 walks, 1.17 WHIP

Pirates: Oneil Cruz – Don’t be fooled by the batting average, Cruz is locked in at the dish. Currently boasting a 37.5/12.5 BB/K% ratio, .429 wOBA, & 185 wRC+, he has opened the season looking like a man on a mission in the batter’s box and on the basepaths. Oneil currently leads the league in stolen bases with 4.

Rays: Junior Caminero – The phenom has not put up gaudy production yet, but he has the look of an absolute terror. Boasting a hellacious 81 mph bat speed (tied with Oneil Cruz) that is the 100th percentile & an early average EV of 97mph, this youngster is primed to do damage. It is early going for his career, but the sky is the limit for what he can do on the diamond.

Pirates: Endy Rodriguez – In the very early going of game that count Endy has struggled to maintain his scorching hot Spring. Of course, the sample size is even smaller than that of Spring baseball, but he has not looked comfortable at the dish. He has shown quality patience at the plate (22.2 BB%) but has also been overmatched (44.4 K%). The Bucs will need him to get it going in a big way to help the cause.

Rays: Yandy Diaz – Diaz had a rough opening series going 1/9 thus far. He has been a consistent producer for the Rays in his tenure and will need to get it going again to help hang crooked numbers on the scoreboard.

Key Injuries

Pirates: Nick Gonzales, ankle fracture OUT.

Rays: Josh Lowe, grade 2 oblique strain OUT.

Team Notes

Pittsburgh should be coming into this series with something to prove after a supremely disappointing opening series against a weak Miami team. This matchup with the Rays will provide them a chance at redemption. Let’s hope that they’re up to the task.

Similarly, Tampa Bay was pushed to the brink in each game with the Rockies. While they did come away with a series win, each win was hard fought. They too will be looking to prove themselves here. This should be a fun test for the Pirates. Let’s hope they answer some of the lingering questions and silence some of the doubts as well.