Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – Sure, Fire Cherington, but the Damage is Done

5-19-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Lots to cover, lots to say, lets do this with no preamble.

Lets Go!

1. Obvious Holes?

This entire offseason, fans, pundits, TV Talking heads, radio hosts, podcasters, everyone, has been parroting that this Pittsburgh Pirates team needed 2 bats. Specifically a left fielder, a first baseman and some were so bold as to suggest a short stop as well.

We all felt that, we all said that, we all watched as they chose to address only one and then due to injury have that player not debut until this past weekend.

Here’s the thing though, after watching this team play this season, if that’s what we’re calling what they’re doing, I’ve come to the belief that those two bats probably wouldn’t have been enough.

Now, that doesn’t mean I think they shouldn’t have gotten more, it just means, nobody, and I mean all of us who were talking, thought that they’d have guys like Bryan Reynolds, or Oneil Cruz struggle like this.

This was never going to be a “good” offense. I think it’s safe to say that even as we all called for those 2-ish bats, we didn’t see this turning into a top 10 offense. I think instead, most of us put our money on this pitching staff, and figured if we can just be league average offensively we might just have something here.

Well, there is no league average in this offense if Reynolds and Cruz aren’t both really good. Not doing ok, not just drawing walks and whatnot, but actually impacting baseballs, specifically providing power, this lineup just didn’t have the juice.

Spencer Horwitz could legitimately be a very good player here, and if he is, we’ll be happy they went and got him because he can be a real answer at a position of need, but that’s quite literally the only offensive component they brought in with purpose. I can’t even give you Alexander Canario who they traded for when he was placed on waivers. That’s a move of opportunity and desperation, desperation largely caused by your free agent answer to left field being Tommy Pham who you can’t squint hard enough to see as good at any aspect offensively.

Point is, they needed to add a couple bats, but they also needed the bats they already had to at least resemble the players they’ve been.

Cruz has for stretches anyway done his part, and I give him some grace for just having jumped back in after a back flare up that benched him for almost a week, and Reynolds is off to the worst start to a season in his career.

We could play chicken or egg here a bit. Are they struggling because they’re surrounded by bad hitters, or are they just part of the collection?

I guess what I’m saying is now that Horwitz is back and fully acknowledging that Tommy Pham is on the bench with Canario starting most games in his spot, this team is Nick Gonzales away from what this GM intended to be the full strength starting lineup when the team broke camp.

….And

It doesn’t feel like they’re 2 bats away anymore does it?

Cherington was wrong for not getting those 2 to begin with, but I think it’s fair to say we, collectively, were wrong about how much better position 2 bats would put them in.

If Cruz and Reynolds get right, and Horwitz looks like an actual piece, and Gonzales helps when he returns, it’ll feel more doable heading into the offseason, but it must be acknowledged, good players start out cold in other cities too, they just don’t have Tommy Pham and Adam Frazier surrounding them to make it through.

At least not the teams that survive it.

2. Jared Jones

Well, this was always a possibility, and I say that before we truly know anything other than Jared is headed for another consult with Dr. Keith Meister. The same doctor who said there is little UCL damage and no immediate need for surgery. This was the result of his second opinion, and it was always going to be left on the table as an option.

He’ll see the doctor on Tuesday, this after a late reported set back in his rehab.

So let’s talk this through.

First, if he has a full on UCL procedure, he’ll miss the rest of this year, and likely and for practical purposes all of 2026. I won’t even touch at this time how the 2027 season should be seen as shaky at best with the CBA expiring after the 2026 season, but it’s out there.

Bottom line, if this is a partial, he could be on a shorter schedule, but not so much that you expect him to return full throttle in 2026, if it’s full, well, we might not see him back until whenever, if ever, they start playing baseball in 2027.

And he’ll be immediately on Arbitration.

Now, couple this with the news that Hunter Barco was removed from a game after only 23 pitches. We don’t yet know the extent of this, but he was drafted by the Pirates where he was expressly because he was recovering from UCL surgery, otherwise he would have been at the top of every team’s board.

Suddenly, all that young pitching we were supposed to be trading for bats, well, there aren’t as many are there? Funny how that works.

The excitement about this rotation and all the young arms coming for me was never about pretending I knew a magical set of 5 that would ultimately get here and run rough shot through the league, it was about having so many that they can survive two injuries like this and still have more.

Hindsight is never fair to use to justify anything. It’s an advantage decision makers don’t get when they make the decision, and it’s not fair to pretend it was super apparent after you’ve seen it play out a bit.

That said, Jared Jones eventually having to have UCL done was something just about everyone seemed to see coming. Physics just doesn’t like someone with that frame throwing 100 MPH, and this is the party trick it tends to bring when you ignore it. So, when there was interest in Jones in the offseason, well, if there were legit offers this kind of eventuality you’d hope would be going through your head.

Keeping depth is great, but understanding what this team needed, and how hard it was going to be to expect health from everyone, I’d hope that given a chance to improve your team, take advantage of a real talent and his value, coupled with the risk you have to see, well, again, I’m asking the guy to be psychic I guess, but on the other hand I had myself so convinced this would happen at some point I guess I just feel it would have been a good bet that you were both getting help and offloading the handling of that aspect of things.

Who knows though, maybe he wouldn’t have even passed the physical.

This is a really good kid, with a ton of fight in him. I have no doubt he’ll return, eventually, and I equally have no doubt he’ll look great when he does. I feel for him too, he’s one of the more intense competitors I’ve ever had the pleasure to talk to. It just oozes from him, he wants nothing to do with anything but targeting and destroying the challenge in front of him.

I’m probably not the first person who kinda questioned how fast a pitch someone his size should try to live at. He trusts himself, and works harder than most to achieve it.

Lastly, and I know this is going to be unpopular, the Pirates didn’t screw this up.

In know, I know.

None of this is done without a doctor, and the doctor the Pirates are using, Meister is widely used, and widely respected. If he thought a surgery was an absolute must, Jones would have gone under the knife back in April.

I can tell you the player wanted to avoid it. I can tell you that wouldn’t matter if there was no way to avoid it, or no chance it was going to heal.

We’re talking about a month delay, it really doesn’t change all that much as it pertains to his return date, unless of course he went from a partial procedure to full on UCL because it got worse, which even then, would have been under the supervision of a doctor.

I understand the environment, but in this case, I just don’t think we need to pretend this is another thing Cherington messed up. He’s done enough real stuff, we don’t need to add tangents and pretend he’s some all powerful being too.

3. The Horse is Friggin’ Dead Already

I’m tired.

Yes, of bad baseball, but also some of the commentary on it. I’m bored of beating the living shit out of a dead horse.

Here are some of the things that in my mind are well established, almost universally agreed upon and frankly, I just don’t feel like having to mention them every time I open my mouth or pound my fingers on a keyboard.

Fire Cherington – Uh huh. Can I just ask, who that covers this team at any level has advocated for not firing him? I haven’t seen it, honestly. I’m not even wading into when, or if it would actually help, or who would replace him, I’m simply saying, we ALL get it, we ALL agree. Saying it every day, especially after a loss like he directly made a decision that very day to make it happen, I’m just not interested anymore. Say what you like, just don’t expect a response anymore, and I’m not going to lead everything I write or say with it as a prerequisite.

It’ll Never Change Under Nutting – OK. Well, why fire Cherington then? I mean, if you think it doesn’t matter beneath him, why does the GM matter? Why did the manager matter? Why are you watching? This is not to be confused with people simply calling for Nutting to sell the team, have at it. It won’t happen, at least not before this CBA, but have a blast calling for it however you like. This comment though, enough. There’s no direction to head from there in any conversation, if you truly feel that way, I won’t go so far as to tell you to quit watching, but I’m for sure all done replying to it. Again, you’ve left no room for conversation there. The truth is, a GM could do a better job here, even with the restrictions working for Nutting provide. Will it ever be enough to bring a World Series? Well, I’ve seen one team do it with a payroll that wasn’t in the top 10 and it was 10 years ago. That’s the list.

Move the Team – As succinctly as I can put it, how about you kiss my ass? This is my baseball team, and I watch and support them because they play in and represent my city. My grandparents brought me up in it, and they watched a lot of bad baseball too outside of one glorious year in the 60’s and a crazy good decade. I can’t believe there are any actual Pirates fans advocating for this. It’s devastating for a community and this team has so much MLB history tied to it, I find it hard to believe MLB would entertain it. The truth is, there aren’t enough major media markets in the country to have all 30 capable of competing at the same level. This is the same for every single league in Major North American Pro sports. Most of them have addressed the issue, one is still pretending there’s a real way out short of legislating it in. Moving the team is about as dumb as the idiots that claim they’re leaving the country if the politician they prefer loses. In both cases, we’d be better off if they did.

MLB Has to Step In – Well, they won’t. Nothing Nutting does is against the MLB rules. You may hate hearing that, but it’s true. Sure, grievances get filed, but none of them go anywhere. I’ll remind you, since we seem to forget it on the daily in other walks of life, being accused of something untoward doesn’t mean you’ve actually done anything untoward. MLB has to fix their system. I personally think a cap system (and don’t make me add “with a floor” to my list) would solve everything, but at the end of the day, the system and MLB know damn well they’re operating an imbalanced vessel, and they know damn well what that creates. Revenue sharing dollars are not directly tied to player salaries, never have been, never will be, until such a time as MLB can wrangle in spending with a system change, and I mean on the top and bottom it’s always going to be hard to convince smaller market teams that spending 5 million on a Dominican Training facility isn’t more valuable than an extra Tommy Pham. A tangent of this is asking the local government to step in, they can’t even figure out the PRT schedule.

I could probably go on, but that’s enough. I’m just tired of hearing some of this nonsense, it’s unproductive bitching for the sake of bitching. Your right of course, but mine too, to not deal with it anymore. When a problem is solved, meaning you know the answer, I’m not sure why you would continue to ask it in the same way to the same audience the next day.

4. Why Not Call Up Bubba Chandler?

Well, let me tell you what I’m fairly sure it isn’t. Super 2 or fear he’ll win Rookie of the year. I mean this in the most kind to Bubba way I possibly can, but he ain’t Skenes, and they ignored both of those things for him.

Now, if you’re super cynical, I suppose you could say they learned their lesson since Paul won the Rookie of the Year and they don’t want to repeat the “mistake” and have Bubba awarded a year of service time too, but honestly, that’s such a long shot, I just can’t fathom it, even for this management team.

I’d also ask, with Cherington being every bit a lame duck, why would he actively not want to add a pitcher like this to help the only version of this team he’s sure to supervise? I mean, why would he be concerned with what happens 5 years from now when it’s likely another GM’s issue?

I still personally think he’ll get called up during this homestand that opens tonight, but if he doesn’t, well, I think there are some reasons, and I mean baseball reasons.

First things first, I’m not overly concerned that he hasn’t eclipsed 5 innings yet. Some of it is by design, he does have a very real innings count for 2025 and they have done this with similar talents, including Paul Skenes himself.

That said, many of those 5 innings or less outings, his pitch count has gotten into kinda insane territory.

Just yesterday he threw 86 pitches, 9 runners in 4.1 innings pitched. It came with 7 Strike outs too, which is a hell of a lot for 4.1 innings, but guys are making him work, and frankly, he’s a bit wild, hitting the strike zone about 63% of the time, which can be fine if you’re getting results, but guys won’t chase to the same level up here as they do in the minors either, so it’s a concern.

See, the thing is, the Pirates putting innings restrictions on him, well, they don’t matter if he’s going to be near 100 pitches by the 5th every game.

Some outings have been way better than others, but 2 of his last 3 weren’t exactly screaming call me up dummy!

With the season being where it is, sure, I just want to get him up here and see him pitch too, but I do think you should brace yourself, cause if he comes up here and goes about walking guys at a 3.86 BB/9 clip, well, he’ll be out of most games by the fifth, and that wouldn’t be much different than the guy they’d likely replace in the rotation.

His K/9 of 13.50 is exceptional, but the way he pitches I think it’s fair to expect this figure will go down a bit and the BB/9 will increase.

Again, I want to see him, and I’m confident we will but starting pitching hasn’t really been the team’s issue, and in my mind, he has a lot more clean up to do. Now, that can and maybe should happen up here, but I think after say 4-5 times through the rotation, I bet it looks a lot like what Mlodzinski has already put on the back of his baseball card.

Many of his outings are either on Pittsburgh Sports Net or they’ve been the free game of the week on MiLB.com. If he gets another shot in the minors, please do watch him pitch. Not highlights, I mean actually watch him pitch. You could get one of his peak performances, and I’ll look dumb, or, you could see what I’m seeing and find yourself having a bit of hesitation on that call for him to immediately come up here.

Unless every hitter he faces up here are Javy Baez from a couple years ago, I’m going to be proven right on the walk and K totals. Guys up here simply aren’t going to make the mistakes that the competition he’s currently facing do, not regularly and he doesn’t get to face the Pirates in his debut.

5. Orioles and Pirates, Opposite Sides of the Same Coin

The Orioles can’t pitch, and the Pirates can’t hit. Both went into a deep dark rebuild, both drafted high repeatedly, both focused on bringing in as much talent as they possibly could. Both made trades to try to fill holes, both don’t like to spend money to fill them, or can’t depending on which side of the reality fence you like to live on.

The Orioles are 15-30, the Pirates are 15-32.

Both teams fired their managers, Brandon Hyde and Derek Shelton. Both will likely move on from their GM, and one was recently sold to a new owner, who is just about as willing to spend money as his predecessor.

The Orioles have 4 pitchers in their top 10 prospects list, only one of them at the AAA level.
The Pirates have 3 offensive players in their top 10 prospects list, only 1 of them at the AAA level, and 1 in AA.

Both of these teams need right now help, and I don’t mean for this year, I mean to salvage their builds.

I drool when I look at the Orioles top prospects, or even just what their team can do offensively at the MLB level, and I’m sure Orioles fans look at Pittsburgh thinking exactly the opposite.

I’d tell you these two teams would make great trade partners, and on the surface, they certainly do but here’s the thing, the perceived strengths of each team, well, they aren’t performing as such.

The Orioles with all that offensive talent, 24th in batting average at .231, just a couple spots above the Pirates who are tied for dead last at .217.

In other words, they might want and need more of that top ranked offense to come through yet.

Now the Pirates, and that daunted pitching staff, specifically starting pitching. Even without Jared Jones, the Pirates come in 15th in Starting Pitching ERA at 3.87 and the Orioles, 29th with a 6.01 ERA.

The Pirates, well, they could stand to improve, especially hitting the way they do and they might want to use their internal structure to do so.

The Orioles aren’t going to take a lower lever starter, no matter how good they are, and the Pirates shouldn’t take someone from their lower levels either.

Both of these teams need things to change, even if this year has been wasted. Both of them have a path to correcting the deficiencies in their builds, but both of them need to have serious conversations about how they managed to suck for as long as they did and only built one side of the equation.

There are other teams out there for each to look at, I’m not pretending both are SOL because this isn’t a clean a match as it might be.

If anything, this is a lesson.

No matter how incredible a rebuild looks like it’s shaping up to be with prospect load and talent, you still have to have success on both sides of the ball. You still have to develop and deploy them capably when you get to the MLB level and more than anything, you have to have an understanding of what you have and haven’t done well and make moves to adjust to the realities of your effort.

It’s actually very normal for things to go this way, and so are the adjustments you need to make. Every team that’s ever tried this has had to made at least one uncomfortable deal to see if they couldn’t make a go of their construction.

Sometimes it’s a GM change and nothing more than their fresh eyes help steer the ship back from the brink. Sometimes a new GM doesn’t have the same allegiance to prospects that were seen as untouchable and that opens the door.

From my perch in Pittsburgh, I’ve endlessly heard how much better the Orioles have done with their build, especially when compared to the Pirates.

I’m not saying this to cut the sting of watching this team, or to talk about how successful this effort is or will be. I’m saying it simply to illustrate that the path to a rebuild is rarely a good as it looks, and you almost never get where you wanted to go without making a fairly large adjustment somewhere along the line.

That doesn’t make it better. It’s not intended to.

The Orioles Mark Elias has been the GM in Baltimore since 2019. He’s done a great job right? He even won MLB executive of the year in 2023 and folks, this pitching issue, it was very much so in play back then too.

Much like Cherington, everyone and their mother assumed they’d trade some of that offensive talent for pitching. They did but it was for help they couldn’t keep.

Cherington just tried to do the opposite, he moved an MLB pitcher for help at first base that he hopes helps for years to come.

I’m not telling you one is right and one is wrong, I’m just saying even if they try different things, the problem remains and the only advantage the Pirates have is that they live in a much more winnable division.

The stories aren’t written, but we’ve reached the point in the story where the hero is supposed to fight back from the brink and triumph. Rarely does it play out like a super hero movie in this sport though.

Sometimes it simply requires a new hero.