Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – Coming Home Stronger for Once

6-2-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The Pirates went 3-3 in their trip out West to face the Diamondbacks and Padres. They held their own in these series, and even had a legitimate chance to win all 6 games, but there is still work to do to take this team from competitive to winning more series like these.

Lets Go!

1. Andrew McCutchen

Andrew is now tied with Roberto Clemente with 240 Homeruns, good for 3rd on the list of all time Pirates. Roberto is a lot more than a homerun hitter, but for this stat, do keep in mind, Clemente had almost 3500 more at bats than Cutch as a Pirate.

McCutchen also just passed Arky Vaughan for sole possession of 9th place all time for hits as a Pirate, a spot he’ll remain in as the next one is Bill Mazeroski with 2016. Cutch currently has 1713.

Runs is another category Cutch could move up on. He currently is in 10th with 953, Tommy Leach holds down 9 with 1009 and then Fred Clarke in 8th with 1015. Cutch could pass both of these before he’s done.

How about RBI? Cutch is 7th with 836, just 17 shy of Bill Mazeroski for 6th all time and he’ll go no farther since Paul Waner at 1177 is holding down the 5th spot.

Walks, Cutch has 845, good for 5th all time and he could if he plays long enough wind up number 1 as Willie Stargell leads the pack with 937. He’s just 32 behind Honus Wagner for 4th.

This one will roll, as Andrew does. But right now he has a career OPS as a Pirate of .848, one point above the Cobra a couple points behind Honus Wagner. This one could change wildly though.

Doubles you ask? 338, good for 7th, he’d need to hit 33 to match Pie Traynor and 38 to tie Max Carey for 5th all time. A lot to ask from a guy who has to hit doubles nowadays instead of leg them out.

This one is important if only for context. Remember all the places we put Cutch when we talked through this list, then consider he’s 9th all time for at bats as a Pirate and he’ll never go higher as Lloyd Waner is 8th with 7,256, that’s a full 1,211 at bats and unless they allow exoskeleton suits, Cutch ain’t getting 1,211 more at bats. Point is, he’s near the top of a lot of these lists, while having far fewer at bats.

Is Andrew HOF bound? Honestly, the answer here is never going to be clear cut in either direction. I can show you players with less resume who made it, and I can show you guys with more who didn’t. All I know is he’s the best player I’ve seen here since Barry Bonds, and if the Pirates have a HOF player to push from recent versions of the roster it’s Cutch or Kendall and I’d have Cutch above Jason.

Cutch isn’t playing like a nostalgia piece, and until such a time as I feel he is I hope to keep watching him adding to these numbers right here in his adopted home town.

2. June Reynolds Has Arrived

In his career, Bryan Reynolds has .340 Batting Average in the month of June. That’s 151 hits, 23 Dingers, 72 RBI and 69 runs scored in 119 games.

The calendar has just flipped to June, and Reynolds is already on a tear. In his last 15 games he’s hit .364. He’s raised his batting average on the season 43 points in that span.

This is reality for Reynolds. Struggle bus early, on complete fire for the middle of the season, and the end is hit or miss.

Thing is, Reynolds is a guy who needs the struggle to experience the heights he gets to. He may look lost when he’s going through it, but much like Tony Stark, he’s observing and learning from his mistakes and failures. Slowly perfecting his approach to attack anything a pitcher can throw at him.

One of the most impressive things about Bryan is how he faces a new attack just about every season, and it can look like his absolute kryptonite too, you know, until he cracks the code and kills everyone trying to get him out the way they did the first couple months.

I’m not breaking news by telling you how important Reynolds is to any success for this team. And I still contend, the best Bryan Reynolds is a player who doesn’t need to be the best player on his team. He will be at times of course, but if they need him to be, it’s not a good recipe for the team’s success or his for that matter.

These Summer numbers though, they’re proven out to the point of expectation. You can and should expect him to catch fire by June, every year, like clockwork and unfortunately he’s almost always going to struggle for the first couple months.

This, more than any other factor is why Reynolds can’t be your “best” player. If he is, you’ll almost always have a bad record early on.

3. Don’t Destroy What’s Good Trying to Fix What’s Bad

This is a simple statement, and on the surface, I bet 90% of you absolutely agree with the sentiment.

Unfortunately, in practice it’s harder than this statement makes it sound.

In many ways it’s like the Doctor’s principles that include that they emphasize the importance of patient well-being and the doctor’s duty to do no harm. 

Treating a disease can call for actively harming another part of a patient, and the same can be true for a baseball team, but not if it’s permanent damage.

On a large scale, this is best exemplified by the concept that the Pirates have to trade pitching for hitting. And before I start going down this road, please, actually read what I say, I’m not advocating that they sit on their hands, I’m simply saying, think first, and make sure it’s the right move or set of moves before you irreparably harm what you do have going for you.

Something the Pirates do poorly, especially in this regime is they identify options, meaning a player or group of players who rightly could fill a role. Far too often, this player or mix of players doesn’t have a single member that screams can’t miss. Not that can’t miss often actually exists, but suffice to say they tend to not have a really good bet in the bunch.

Options don’t equal answers, at least not nearly enough, and certainly not here.

So while I as a fan can look at Carmen Mlodzinski, Braxton Ashcraft, Mike Burrows, Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, Hunter Barco and whomever else you want to include in your list of unrealized starting rotation options and think man that’s a lot of arms, some of them gotta work out right?

A team that intends to win in 2026 should probably be a bit more sure than that.

There are two real ways to help yourself make a good decision. One, get them up to the Major League level and get the process started, and two, push through what could simply be a rookie learning the tough lessons you know they have to get through.

Here’s the Pirates biggest problem as it comes to this, they don’t have more than one clearly open spot in the rotation. They will have 2 when they decide to move on from Andrew Heaney.

Moving Heaney is an easy call, he’s a free agent in 2026 and this team has absolutely no investigation to do with him. He does what he does, and he does it well, more importantly, he does it the way he does it almost every season he pitches.

He’s also not going to return an immediately helpful bat. More likely a lottery ticket that hopefully helps the team later if at all.

Moving something for a bat that helps today, well, that’s going to take something more bold.

Let’s not let this get derailed by worrying about which GM will do it. In my mind, they’ve got plenty of players on expiring contracts they can deal at the deadline and this larger scale stuff, can just wait for the offseason.

The main guys that come up in these discussions are Bailey Falter and Mitch Keller.

Bailey has 3 more years of arbitration. He makes a little over 2 million this year and next year if he keeps pitching like this, he’ll get somewhere in the neighborhood of 5-6 million, still a bargain. Now, on the other hand, Bailey before this season really had 1 or 1.5 pitches. Now with the urging of Brent Strom he’s using more pitches and it’s made his already hard to see fastball that much harder to identify and hit.

In other words, the Bailey of last year was good, and with 4 years of team control, entirely tradeable, but limited. This year, this Bailey, well, he’s more than that. To a degree, his biggest reason for success, his 4-seam fastball is still his best pitch, and to the league, the reason (extension) is still living in the world of parlor trick as it comes to scouting.

All that said, he has a ton more value now than he did when he struggled in 2023 after being acquired. He’s a better pitcher with more value than the guy none of us wanted in our rotation in 2024. And as we sit here in 2025, he’s a lot more than a guy you just trade like he’s as replaceable as JT Brubaker was.

He’s also a guy who everything could change for if he loses even an inch of that 99th percentile extension figure. This WILL happen with age and at 28 you shouldn’t be all that concerned yet, in fact, he’ll be through his team control before you get there.

The last thing here, he’s a lefty. The Pirates have two internal options to take that over, Barco and Anthony Solometo. Barco is close to being ready, Solometo not so much.

The Pirates have done well getting veteran lefty help for their rotation too, so that probably makes it a bit less scary.

He costs very little, he has 3 full seasons of team control, he’s at the top of his game and getting better, he’s a low injury risk because he doesn’t throw the ball all that hard and…

He’s also not a guy who ANYONE will consider the type of acquisition that takes you through the playoffs, in fact, he might struggle to get a start in a series depending on where he goes.

For that reason, I don’t see this as a deadline goldmine. I see it as an offseason move where teams are more actively carving out their innings schedules and place value in the steadiness of a guy like this. In other words, teams won’t look for him to carry the team, they’ll just look for him to eat innings capably and affordably for years to come.

After this year, that team control aspect will decrease. That can to a degree be countered by continued improvement, but at some point it’s a zero sum game. One side is pulling down on your value, the other up.

The sweet spot if you’re not going to extend him, is to deal him after this season or after next. I think that’s when you see more MLB talent available in return, and I think that’s when he’s seen in the best light.

Again, all those arms coming, great, maybe you do have plenty to move him, but Bailey Falter was acquired for one player with very little MLB experience, he’s performed better than any pitcher this GM has brought in short of Paul Skenes and the ONLY hope this team has of playing baseball that matters is if this rotation is untouchable.

It warrants thought. And if nothing else, it requires getting exactly what you want, not close, exactly. If you trade Falter, you better get back a completely vetted MLB bat with almost the same amount of team control left.

This won’t be a star, but it could be a guy a lot like IKF or even a Spencer Horwitz type, although he’s not as vetted as I’d prefer.

It’s not time for names. I’ll do that at some point but we aren’t there yet. I have some I like, but honestly I’d like to see their original teams do some of the hard work I just talked about the Pirates need to do with some of their pitching.

We’ll talk about Keller another time, but suffice to say, this is the type of discussion I have with myself before I start crowing about trading a guy and when.

This isn’t the Pirates way, at least it hasn’t been, but maybe it’s better for THIS team, with Paul Skenes on it to keep the player you know, and know you have affordably for 3 more years than to trade him and replace him with someone you hope can get where he was at some point. Then again, if Hunter Barco is close to what he looks like, maybe you simply have to take a leap.

4. Is the Bullpen Bad?

Well, it’s not great that’s for sure.

I hate looking at overall bullpen numbers in season. Let me explain, see the numbers at this point, or really any point in the season, they reflect every Tom, Dick and Harry they’ve used.

Everyone. Even the guy who comes up and throws 4 innings in garbage time, gives up 8 runs and gets shipped back out or DFA’d.

In other words, no matter when you look at the number, the current construction of the pen is being misrepresented.

I could add up the numbers from just this current set up, but some guys have been here for a week, others a victim of this team misusing Joey Wentz as a fireman.

The numbers aren’t wrong, and no matter what has happened in your pen, you should always stack it against what others have done, after all, they have all these same problems.

So right now the Pirates have the league’s 22nd ranked bullpen by ERA. And they’ve given up the 19th fewest earned runs with 100.

I say all of that just to explain a little about how I see bullpens. I see them as living organisms.

They evolve and they change and you have to absorb bad nights and not get fooled by especially great outings and more than anything, you have to build flexibility, maintain optionability if that’s a word, and learn to ride what’s working.

It’s hard, and in today’s game, it quite literally wins championships. Just ask the Dodgers who spend a fortune to build a juggernaut but win the Series because they put together a bullpen that gelled and carried the team through the playoffs with an absolutely decimated starting rotation.

So do the Pirates have a bad bullpen? Well, yeah, but for me, it’s less about the numbers and more about the construction. They built an IKEA table, had a bag of bolts left over and still invited the in-laws over for dinner.

Some of it their fault, some of it injury related, but mostly, just not enough hammers.

The Pirates have one reliever maybe 2 who you could truly consider a hammer. He’ll get the out or the Strike Out when you have to have it. Dennis Santana and David Bednar. I could argue Justin Lawrence was becoming one but I digress, it’s about the pen right now right?

Late and close, the Pirates have divided their labor like this, and again this is guys currently on the roster.

Dennis Santana has gotten 11 IP
David Bednar has gotten 9.1 IP
Caleb Ferguson has gotten 11.1 IP
Chase Shugart has gotten 6.2 IP

Now, before I continue, these are all guys who’ve largely done well in these situations, and they are the guys they’ve used most. Chase has probably snuck into this because as he covered a couple innings the Pirates made the game close, but we’ve also seen them try him in the 7th and I’d consider that late.

This next group are the guys they will use if they have a rest problem, and I have to say, while the team went 3-3 on the road trip, they were in almost all of those games, and were left to cover the 7th through the 9th most nights. So that group up there got used. And tired.

Ryan Borucki has gotten 4.2 IP
Joey Wentz has gotten 4.2 IP
Tanner Rainey has gotten 3.1 IP (Just DFA’d today)
Braxton Ashcraft is hard to figure, he finished a game, but it wasn’t close, and he got into yesterday’s game for an inning, and I think I’d count that one, so lets go with 1 IP

So out of these 4, you could probably talk yourself into Borucki getting a look but he also happens to be the team’s best fireman, so he is just by nature going to get used earlier at times.

Wentz and Rainey have probably shown me enough. Wentz just isn’t that good, but if you’re going to keep him, never bring him in with runners on, not even 1. Rainey has one interesting pitch, and when he can’t land it he’s Kyle Crick. Just an NRI, and an easy bye.

Ashcraft, I hate just letting a guy have a spot in the pen and essentially committing to using them once a week as an expected long man. First, if Burrows does well, Ashcraft won’t pitch much. If he doesn’t, Ashcraft could go for a while but if the game tightens up they’ll pull him. Third, they make the pen intentionally short. Not to mention this guy is capable of really helping in the pen, maybe even in the Hammer category.

The bullpen options in the minors that are on the 40-man are Carmen Mlodzinski, who they’re still having start, and to his credit, he’s actually doing some work in AAA that show no signs of moving in the ramp down direction. He could really help, but he actually might be something of a starter too. Truly.

Kyle Nicolas has struggled, but has reversed course as of late. 14.1 IP and a 4.40 ERA, but after how he started, trust me, the 4.40 ERA is a good mark. He showed last year he could be a good piece, but right now, I might want to hold off, just to make sure it’s ironed out, 10 walks in 14.1 IP is not what you want to see up here. The K’s are great, but if you walk that many, guys hit .271 off you and you strike out 25 of the 43 you’ve faced, it’s just close to a good recipe. Walks have to decrease or hits need to nosedive then you’ve got something.

Isaac Mattson hasn’t been down long enough unless there’s an injury.

Holderman has a weird thumb thing that sounds like it’s recurring. IL for a while more.

Dauri Moreta could be close to returning. He’s on a rehab assignment, and man if he’s himself what a kick in the ass that would be. (Could be as early as tomorrow and could be the guy who replaces Rainey and be that missing hammer)

At some point, this team will have to embrace some of these starters have to at least for now transition to the pen. That’s where the talent is, and this rotation deserves a good pen, almost as much as they deserve a competent offense.

A true long man in today’s game is solely an insurance arm for a bad start. When you have one spot in your rotation that you “expect” it, or “prepare” for it, then, it’s a hole in the bullpen. Since baseball went to the ghost runner in extras, a traditional long man has no real role, or is often miscast, such as Joey Wentz.

So is it bad, right now, I hate the mix and I don’t trust it. Get me another hammer I can trust. Another fireman from the right side. I like it a lot better. Moreta could be both.

If it stays bad, their stubbornness with the starting depth will be the culprit.

5. Bucs Baseball is Fun to Watch Again

Say what you will about the holes this team still very much so has, you’re right about all of it, but one thing is very true this past few weeks, they’re playing a better, and more fun brand of baseball.

Credit who you like, Don Kelly certainly gets his share, the entire mood is different in the dugout, but the players rightly should get credit for how they started, and how they’re playing now.

I’d honestly think if all it took was a different guy saying go get ’em boys was all it took, that speaks worse to the players than the coaching.

Functionally, he is pushing different buttons, not completely from Mars type stuff or anything, but different enough that it’s noticeable. And a lot of it has worked.

He’s more passionate, and he tends to walk up and down the dugout a hell of a lot more rather than sending lieutenants to deliver a message he’s more hands on. Less gets lost in translation that way, even if he’s speaking directly to someone who speaks broken English at best in their face almost pushing the translator to the side a bit. Like, look kid, you may not get every word but you’re going to see how I felt about it when I said it, even if you literally hear what I said after I walk away.

So there is something to Donny Ball if you will.

But if you ask me, it’s because Oneil Cruz and Bryan Reynolds are hitting. Yeah, I know other guys are too, but those two alone make a whole lot of things possible that simply aren’t if they aren’t.

Cutch is killing it, Frazier looks like he did in the build up to his All Star season the way he’s swinging it lately, I mean if THIS is the Frazier I thought even had a death rattle left I probably don’t make the fuss I did about the signing.

Davis had a couple really good games, and continues to shine defensively.

Isaiah Kiner-Falefa has truly been, for the player he is, tremendous. He’s hitting .303, yes, he doesn’t hit for power, no, he’s not playing his best position, but he’s contributing, and consistently so. I’d love to see them put him in the 2 hole. Great guy to have following Cruz who might steal and turn a single into a run, and he’ll get the opportunity to steal because IKF sees a shit ton of pitches not to get to scientific on you.

In fact, I’m having so much fun watching right now, let me take a crack at my everyday lineup.

1 CF Oneil Cruz (L)
2 SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa (R)
3 RF Bryan Reynolds (S)
4 DH Andrew McCutchen (R)
5 1B Spencer Horwitz (L)
6 LF Alexander Canario (R)
7 2B Adam Frazier (L)
8 C Henry Davis (R)
9 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes (R)

I use everyday lightly of course, but this is my starting lineup and I make changes from here. It’s old school, but reflects a team that doesn’t have the power to wait for 3 run homers to score runs. IKF becomes the get the guy over or at least get someone on for the meat of our order at all costs guy. The very thing he does no matter where you put him. I just want to see if we can’t turn a leadoff walk to Cruz into a run a hell of a lot more often.

This shouldn’t be set in stone, but close. Until they call someone up.

Hayes hits like a 9 hole hitter in every way. I really have no desire to see him 5-7 until he starts really doing something. I should say if he really starts doing something. Then, if you want to move him up, have at it, but until then…

Still, it’s been more fun and there’s been more reward for good pitching.

Not enough of course, but more and if nothing else, I feel like they’re playing like a .500 team, and that’s what I expected, the hole they dug is probably too deep but they currently are playing .500 ball.

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