6-5-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
After trading ‘3-0’ games, the Pirates will look for the series win against the Astros today facing their lefty ace, Framber Valdez, who is 5-4 with a 3.12 ERA through 12 starts this season but his reliance on pitch-to-contact is certainly a risky one at times.
In his last start, Valdez shutdown Tampa Bay as he pitched a complete game with just 1 run allowed off 3 hits, 1 walk and 9 strikeouts.
Valdez has pitched 6+ innings and allowed 1 run or less in half of his starts this year, including 4 of his last 5.
As previously discussed, the two-time All Star faced Pittsburgh on July 31 last year – which was notably a turning-point in the season for the Pirates in all the wrong ways. Despite the result of the game and the season, they were able to knock Valdez for 4 runs off 6 hits in 6 innings, though also striking out 10 times with zero walks against the veteran southpaw.
Valdez is essentially a ground-ball pitcher who relies on his talented infield defense, using a sinker/curve/changeup/slider low in the zone.
His curve, in particular, has been a dominant for Valdez with opponents batting a measly .189 against the offering with a 43.3% whiff rate and resulting in 46 of his 73 strikeouts – all the best among his pitches.
By contrast, his more-often used sinker is his contact pitch, resulting in just a 10.4% whiff rate, an average exit velocity of 91 MPH and an expected batting average of .309 so Bucs bats should key in on this pitch, especially if Valdez is struggling to locate one or more of his other options.
As is the case for the Astros hitters, Valdez has struggled away from Daikin Park as his home ERA (2.20) is nearly two runs lower than his away line (4.14) in nearly the same amount of innings.
Pittsburgh has struggled against left handed pitching this season with the 4th lowest wRC+ in MLB (68) on the season but overall have been more effective as of late, posting an above average 103 wRC+ since May 20th and posting a .263/.336/.394 slash line as a team over that stretch.
We’ve seen this Pirates offense really hot at times and very ice cold much more often but if they can dig out some sinkers, lay off the curve and find holes in the infield, there’s a chance they can find victory in the finale today.
Steel City Pirates 