06-06-2025 – By Josh Booth – @bridge2buctober on X
These two teams met up in the middle of May in Philadelphia. The Phillies swept the Pirates in a weekend series that kicked off a 9-game winning streak. Granted, that winning streak was against the Pirates, Rockies, and Athletics. After winning a series against the division foe, Braves, they were swept at home against the Brewers and lost a series to the Blue Jays in Toronto.
During this 3-7 run, the Phils were passed in the NL East by the Mets and sit in 2nd place. If the season ended today, they’d have a wild card spot.
Kyle Schwarber is 2nd in the NL with 19 HR, including 10 off of LHP which leads the NL. Trea Turner is 5th in the NL with a .300 AVG. Nick Castellanos is in the top 10 in the NL with 16 2B. They can score runs.
The starting rotation leads the MLB in strike outs. The Pirates hitters, well, they strike out: 7th most K’s in MLB.
The Bucs have been improving, but they are still missing the power it’s likely to take to overcome this NL East powerhouse. This is a very good team and a great opportunity for this young club to gain some confidence against. Let’s take a look at the matchup.
6/6
Phillies: Joe Ross 21 G, 29 IP, 4.34 ERA, 22 SO, 7 BB, 1.28 WHIP
(This will be Ross’ first start since July 30, 2024)
Pirates: Bailey Falter 12 GS, 66 IP, 3.14 ERA, 41 SO, 22 BB, 1.08 WHIP
(At PNC Park: 6 GS, 36.2 IP, 2.45 ERA, 22 SO, 9 BB, 0.82 WHIP)
6/7
Pirates: Ranger Suarez 6 GS, 36.1 IP, 2.72 ERA, 33 SO, 10 BB, 1.18 WHIP
(Last start against PIT: 5/16/25 7 IP, 3 ER, 6 SO, BB)
Pirates: Andrew Heaney 12 GS, 66.1 IP, 3.39 ERA, 47 SO, 24 BB, 1.19 WHIP
(Last start against PHI: 5/16/25 5 IP, 1 ER, 2 SO, 3 BB)
6/8
Phillies: Cristopher Sanchez 12 GS, 65.2 IP, 3.15 ERA, 74 SO, 26 BB, 1.31 WHIP
Pirates: Paul Skenes 13 GS, 83.1 IP, 2.05 ERA, 85 SO, 19 BB, 0.88 WHIP
(Last start against PHI: 5/18/25 8 IP, 1 ER, 9 SO, BB)
Phillies: Kyle Schwarber – The last time I did one of these, I talked about Rhys Hoskins tearing it up in the past week. Today, Hoskins has the 2nd most strike outs in MLB in the last 15 days. Hitting just .200. So, this might be a “who’s going to earn a golden sombrero in one of these games” paragraph.
Kyle Schwarber’s move to the middle of the order has been good for the Phillies in ’25. Trea Turner against lefties and Bryson Stott against righties has handled that spot. The response against left-handers is that Schwarber leads the NL in HR off LHP with 10. His 163 OPS+ so far this year would be his best season, yet. His SO% is the lowest it’s been in his career, too. There are no real breaks in the top 5-6 hitters of this lineup, but stopping Schwarber will be an important, and difficult, task.
Pirates: Bryan Reynolds – Reynolds might finally be coming around. In his last 12 games, he’s hitting .356 and the OPS is 1.009. And that’s coming off of an 0-4 performance Thursday night against Framber Valdez. If the Bucs are going to have a chance to take a series, it’s going to have to be because Reynolds shows up.
Phillies: Max Kepler – The last time I did one of these, I talked about Christian Yelich struggling in the past week. Today, Yelich leads MLB in OPS in the last 15 days. So, this might be a “who’s about to break out” paragraph.
Kepler has hit just .156/.238/.211 in his last 24 games. His last HR came on May 24th against the Rockies. He had homered in back-to-back games in Arizona on May 2nd and 3rd and has just hit 1 HR since. He finished May with a .188 AVG and has just 1 hit in the first 4 games this month. The season average has dropped 50 points during this stretch. With the Buccos sending two left-handers and Skenes this weekend, I may pitch around Nick Castellanos to get to Kepler.
Pirates: Ke’Bryan Hayes – The fact that Ke has even 3 RBI in his last 12 games is impressive considering he only has 6 hits. Add 4 walks and it’s only a .220 OBP during the stretch. He has accomplished only a .353 OPS as all 6 hits have been singles. Now, I care most about on base, but the batting average is only .133. The singles don’t bother me, if you can hit more of them. Ke’Bryan Hayes needs to have a much different looking series this weekend.
Phillies: Aaron Nola
Pirates: Colin Holderman, Jared Jones, Justin Lawrence, Tim Mayza, Dauri Moreta, Johan Oviedo, Joey Bart, Enmanual Valdez
Notes
- Andrew McCutchen is coming off a Golden Sombrero night. He’s now hitting .095 in 6 Thursday games this season. The silver lining is that he’s hitting .394 with a 1.015 OPS on Friday nights this year. But still looking for his first HR on a Friday night. Maybe that comes tonight.
- With runners on base this season, Ke’Bryan Hayes is hitting .287. With Bases empty, .169. The goal has to be to get someone on base in front of Hayes and see if they can get him hitting. Or even in scoring position, when Hayes hits .298.
- Henry Davis started showing some signs of putting it together, but it hasn’t continued. He will likely get Saturday off against Suarez, but I’m feeling frisky and calling a big hit down the LF line in this series. A double or homer down that line.
Steel City Pirates 