Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – A Winning Formula?

6-30-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The Pirates brutalized the Mets this weekend.

I mean, outside of Saturday, it wasn’t close, the Pirates outpitched the Mets, out hit the Mets, and honestly, they out competed the Mets.

Time will tell if this series said more about the Pirates or the Mets, but it sure was uplifting and in a season with precious few upswings, I’ll take it, puff out my chest and for the time being enjoy what my team just did.

Lets Go!

1. A New Offensive Approach?

Rarely do I like to follow an offensive explosion with waxing poetic about something magical the team has done in the background. That said, the offense as a whole has performed better in June, in fact, they haven’t been shut out since June 3rd.

The overall approach has changed. Not drastically, but effectively.

At the very top level, the Pirates have changed to a more aggressive approach at the plate. Sounds simple, but it’s a reversal from an organizational approach that has been preached for just about 6 seasons now. Their aim is line drives, not launch angle and so far it’s played into this collection of player’s skill set to a much more repeatable degree.

They’re just words if the players don’t change when they’re up there, and this month we’ve really started to see it more and more. This doesn’t mean they all have to swing at the first pitch, it just means the overall approach no longer requires trying to milk a starter out of a game, it now requires hitting the best offering you get and not for any purpose but to hit the ball.

We’ve all heard hit it where it’s pitched, well, that’s essentially what the Pirates are now trying to do. They don’t have homerun hitters, and now as a unit they’re trying to hit like a team that needs to stack hits, as opposed to wait for 3 run homers.

They will be shut out again. They will have a series where they score 2-3 runs and fail to look competent again. But if this approach truly takes hold, they’ll be the outliers.

It’s still harder to score runs this way, but it’s not the same narrow path the team has used for most of this decade.

Lets watch it evolve.

2. Nobody Asked

I was talking to a player a couple weeks back about the overall offensive approach. I had heard that the hitting team was making some changes to their training and what not and I asked, why this change didn’t come right away with the new hitting coach? Or, why Shelton never changed it as he was a former hitting coach.

Simply put, Shelton never pushed back on it.

Shelton never changed the overall philosophy Ben Cherington likes for hitting and my assumption was always that he simply wasn’t allowed to change it, but now, man, maybe it could have been changed all along. Maybe Cherington being a lame duck has something to do with it as well, we’ve seen Kelly completely move away from the scheduled off days for players too and that as well seemed untouchable organizational ethos.

The guys liked Shelton, and some of the vets did their own thing anyway, but this kind of shocked me to hear. How can you oversee one of the worst offenses in the league for 5+ years and not try to change things?

It’s not like baseball has been reinvented here or something, they’ve simply accepted they don’t have the raw power to play the walk-walk-homer game and they’ve focused on bat to ball skills.

One guy told me it’s as close to batting practice routine as you can get. You hit the ball where it’s pitched, with a goal of line drives and you uncork your best swing when and if you get into an advantage count.

Sorry to kinda double up on point 1 and 2, but this is an important change, one that could help the team really understand what they do have, as opposed to lament what they don’t.

I should also add, one of the guys I talked to has been in AAA and MLB, the message has matriculated down too, hopefully increasing the effectiveness of call ups in the near future.

3. Esmerlyn Valdez to Altoona

If you haven’t heard the name yet, I don’t blame you, he didn’t have a lot of buzz entering the season from the great unwashed (me included).

First, he’s 21 years old and the right handed outfielder hit 22 homers last year for Bradenton along with a .226 batting average. This year for Greensboro he’s already got 20 and his average is sitting at .303.

His K rate is down, his average is up and he’s opening eyes quickly up and down the system.

I’d question the power surge a lot more as it’s occurred in Greensboro, if he were left handed, but right handed, it’s a pretty fair park and he’s hitting no doubters no matter where he plays.

Even right now, Esmerlyn isn’t one of the Pirates top 30 prospects. Crazy right?

Well, he was signed as a 16 year old back in 2021, and I mention this simply to talk to how very long it can take to turn these international signings into a prospect anyone is interested in.

His K rate is the thing to watch. This year he’s kept it hanging around 30%, and before he’s seen as a real solution, you’re probably going to want to see that creep down to 25% or so. I don’t think this kid is a guarantee to make it to MLB, but he’s young enough and performing well enough against players his own age that he’s at least doing his part.

He and Konnor Griffin will represent the Pirates in the MLB All Start Futures game this year, both richly deserved.

Omar Alfonzo will also be promoted to Altoona, as the youngsters continue to push their way closer to helping the big club.

4. Seeing Traded Players Play Well

Quinn Priester was traded to the Red Sox for Nick Yorke. Pitching overflow out, hitting prospect back in. He was since traded from the Sox to the Brewers.

Luis Ortiz was traded along with two prospect pitchers to Cleveland for Spencer Horwitz.

I keep seeing fans and even media personalities like Bob Pompeani openly claiming the Pirates need a mulligan.

These opinions aren’t based on what the Pirates have gotten back, as much as the performances of two players the Bucs moved trying to add offense to this team.

First, it’s far too early to decide the Pirates have missed here on offense. Nick Yorke isn’t here yet, but he’s young, and he will be. Spencer Horwitz is, and he’s playing great defense and the bat is steadily improving as he gets closer to playing enough to get back to well oiled.

Their futures could go in multiple directions, but my larger point is, this is exactly what we’ve asked this team to do, in fact, it’s still what we’re asking them to keep doing.

This team has plenty of pitching. It’s in no way been their issue this year, and it won’t be next year either. There’s a reason we’ve suggested moving arms for bats after all right?

So when I see things like this…

Pirates needed a mulligan for making this move. pic.twitter.com/a4kp2c11v9

— Bob Pompeani (@KDPomp) June 30, 2025

I have to ask, why does this change anything for you? Honestly, had they made neither of these trades, who’s at first base? Triolo? Gorski? Would either of them, let alone both be in the Pirates current rotation?

Let’s say the Pirates do what I’ve suggested and trade Mitch Keller to Boston for an MLB hitter and a prospect or two. Will I have to cringe every time a pitcher I very much so think is good does well?

It’s not about that. It’s about taking an area of strength, intentionally weakening it in an effort to strengthen the offensive side.

If you want to criticize the return, fine, like I said, it’s early, but you don’t have to believe. You don’t have to accept them as good until they show you good. I personally tend to leave my opinion of a deal at the point of the deal.

Meaning, 8 years from now if Ortiz is a top 10 pitcher in the league, and Horwitz has averaged out as a .260 hitter with 15 or so HR per year playing 1B, I’ll absolutely acknowledge that Ortiz was/is the better player. I’d also still point out, the team at the time and since has needed what Horwitz does more.

Even if it goes worse than that, I’ll at least give them credit for trying to balance the scales. That’s what they need to do and it’s what they needed to do.

We’re getting to the point with this trash that you almost need anyone the Pirates trade to tank, and frankly, that’s not a healthy way to see trades. If you’re getting something you value in return, and sending someone you value, why would you think either side of the deal would fail? Why would you root for it?

I liked Quinn, great kid, great attitude, really interesting stuff that needed polished. The Pirates didn’t feel they had the time to do the polishing, and frankly, they have so many other pitching options who hadn’t started their clock yet that it made sense to move him. I NEVER thought he’d fail to become an MLB pitcher, I did question how long it would take and if he’d be a starter by the time it happened.

I loved Ortiz, but I didn’t like his inconsistencies and felt his underlying stats pointed to a homerun problem that he’d have a hard time eliminating. I certainly don’t know if Horwitz will make this look smart but if you look back on what I wrote way back when, my biggest concern in the move was Michael Kennedy, not Ortiz.

If I’m making trades, I don’t need to “WIN” the trade, I need to get the element I was looking for, and be right about being able to replace what I moved.

The Pirates pitching stats tell me they’ve accomplished the second part, we’ll see about the elements they wanted to come out of it with, that takes time if you aren’t dealing for a guy with 2-3 years of MLB service time.

It’s low hanging fruit for a team that media loves to use as a pinata, and frankly, it’s disingenuous.

Fans second guess, that’s what they do, and honestly it’s what they should do, but the media is supposed to be telling the whole story, not cherry picking an excellent performance and painting the picture that’s what has been going on from the minute the guy was dealt.

5. I Know What’s Been Reported, but…

I have no doubt that reports of conversations the Pirates have had or their willingness to have discussions about just about anyone are true.

but…

They always have been with this GM. His policy is to listen to everything, period. No matter how little interest he or the team have in moving someone, the intel gained about value is important to gain.

I happen to know the Pirates had offers for Cruz back in 2020 for instance, when prospects close to the league were as close to gold as this team came.

Bryan Reynolds asked for a trade, even as the Pirates had no interest in moving him. Eventually Bob Nutting closed this deal with Bryan, important to note, Nutting himself closed the deal, because there very much so COULD have been a deal, a few were actually rather fleshed out.

Nutting is the great Satan to many of you, and as an owner and business man, I’m right there with you, but he’s also not the reason crappy trades happen. His trust in his GMs is, and right now, his GM doesn’t have it to the degree say Neal Huntington did when he dealt 3 players for Chris Archer.

We’ve heard Nutting step in and stop a David Bednar deal in the past too.

Now, the fan in me is happy to hear this. I’m very happy Reynolds is still here, and I’m happy Bednar is here, even as I call for trading him this year.

My worry there is, when you don’t spend and you start making decisions your GM isn’t on board with entirely, are you actually allowing him to do the job the way he wanted to?

Like, again, this GM has proven in my mind what Bob did was probably better, but what if he had been allowed to go through with a Reynolds deal and a Bednar deal, is it conceivably possible they have a better offense right now? How about bullpen? Again, the track record of this GM tells me I might have an extra 2B with a 35% K rate in AAA and someone I’m still waiting to break out playing outfield 5 times a week. But in my mind, you can’t ask a GM to not spend, and then stick your finger in the pie when it comes to building a roster.

In fact, I wonder if at times, he’s forced his GM to swallow something he overruled an it makes dismissing them all the harder. Maybe Cherington’s existence here is less about loyalty or being hard to do in season and more about rightly being told he got in the way and changed the plan enough to change the vision.

Hey, maybe that’s a different point, but it’s flowing right now, so just go with it while I indelicately divert back to the original subject.

The point is, I can see Bob Nutting not feeling like letting this GM make a big move to trade out a guy he was just convinced to extend as something he’d like to let happen. Like, maybe the next GM could talk him into it, but I just have a feeling, the biggest potential deal at this deadline might be a rental.

You know what I want to do, I just told you yesterday. I’m just not of the belief this GM is going to be given enough rope to fundamentally change the deck of cards they’re working with at this deadline.

I can honestly say, Paul Skenes, Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Bubba Chandler, Konnor Griffin aren’t being traded. Reynolds has a great contract for what he does, Skenes is Skenes, Cruz has too much talent and too much control and the ONLY big power they have. Chandler and Griffin are just too good.

I have my doubts he’ll allow Keller or Bednar, but I also believe a package could be really hard to pass on, and even he knows ball enough to get it if explained correctly.

Hayes, I know Bob loves personally, as does everyone in the org, but I never thought he’d be tradable after these last couple seasons, so frankly, I haven’t thought it through.

It feels to me like the climate and situation probably add up to a rental conga line out the door, with an outside shot at a big vet trade from a very select few.

Just my opinion. Based on some things I think are pretty well established. We’ll see.

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