7-7-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X
The Mariners held the Bucs at bay but they can’t go run-less forever, right? Heading to Kansas City to face the Royals and rookie breakout southpaw, Noah Cameron.
Entering today with a very strong 2.56 ERA through 56.1 innings, Cameron was a 7th round pick out of the University of Central Arkansas in the 2021 draft, consistently putting up solid minor league numbers in the Royals system with a career 11.25 K/9 and 2.69 BB/9 through four seasons.
However, he hasn’t seen the strong strikeout numbers translate to the bigs with 43 Ks thus far though he’s managed to limit both walks and hits with a 1.01 WHIP and .186 batting average against.
Outside of two very poor starts against the pennant-winning Yankees and defending champion Dodgers, Cameron has been lights out as he has held opponents to 1 or less run in 7 of his 10 starts on the year.
That said, he hasn’t seen benefited from some batted ball luck with a .206 BABIP which would be by far the lowest rate of his career.
This, coupled with a sub-par strikeout rate, have Cameron skating on glass just waiting for things to break.
Among pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched, Cameron has the 10th worst ERA-FIP differential with a strong likelihood of regression to the mean in the near future.
Looking at his delivery and pitch mix, Cameron has a high-slot arm angle, driving the ball down and creating deceptive movement on his breaking balls.
He has a low-90s 4-seam/cutter while mixing in low-80s slider, curve and changeup – but the slider has been the most effective offering with a wOBA of .096.
By contrast, his fastballs haven’t been nearly as successful with hitters batting .253 with 4 home runs against Cameron’s heaters, which he typically runs high and inside to right handed hitters.
It’s a big ballpark in KC so this team should look to take advantage of the spacious terrain, get some line drives to the gaps and get a run – or maybe a few – to support the pitching today.
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