As the Pirates look for a sweep of the visiting Dodgers, they will face off against Walker Buehler – who is looking to make up for lost time after missing most of 2022 and all of 2023 due to injury and an eventual second Tommy John Surgery.
Only a few years removed from a 2.47 ERA over 207.2 innings pitched, Buehler hasn’t had as easy a time maintaining- or even coming close – to that level of production.
Following his aforementioned All-Star 2021 season where he went 16-4 while leading the National League in games started, he isn’t quite back to getting those kinds of results.
While his velo appears to be back this year, he has started 5 games and allowed at least 3 earned runs in 4 of them, entering today with a 1-3 record, 4.32 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in his first 25 innings pitched.
A big issue for Buehler early on has been the long ball as he’s allowed 6 so far this year and 3 in his last 2 starts.
Looking at his arsenal, Buehler has a diverse mix of pitches. His main pitch is his 4-seam, which sits in the 95-98 range, and he pairs it with a low-90s cutter, high-70s curve, mid-90s sinker, low-80s slider and low-90s changeup – mixing speeds and location to keep hitters off-balance.
Small sample size but his fastball has been BY FAR the least effective offering with opponents slugging .720 against the pitch. His curve has also not been sharp at times, posting an oBA of .400 and having the highest average exit velocity (93.9 MPH) among his options.
He was on a pitch count limit ramping up earlier this season but has thrown 90+ pitches in each of his last two starts so the gloves are off. Hitters need to look for that elevated heater of hanging curve. Lay off the slider down and make him throw you your pitches.
Left-handed hitters have been especially dangerous for Buehler with a 1.016 OPS in 54 plate appearances compared to .653 OPS in 51 times a righty faced him. Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz and Jack Suwinski will look to carry the load and do some damage against Buehler with a chance for a rare series sweep on the line.
Most of you are aware of Bryan Reynolds having success in the month of June.
In the last 3 seasons, his best month was June 2021, when he went on a hitting rampage. I believe it was that month that fans, collectively, considered June as his month to click. As you’ll see below, June 2022 was his second best month in the last 3 years.
We’re going to use the Split OPS+ for proof. Split OPS+, sOPS+, takes the league’s average OPS for that specific split (month, in this case) and makes that 100. Above average is higher than 100 and below average is lower. sOPS+ is NOT park adjusted.
Bryan Reynolds has only been a below average hitter in 5 months of the last 20, going back to the beginning of 2021.
From 2021 – 2024, his 5 worst months:
His best 5 months:
Where’s June 2023? Well, he had a 123 sOPS+. However, he only hit 1 HR in 16 Games. He walked 12 times and only struck out 15. So, despite his .268 AVG and .393 SLG being the lowest June in this sample, he had a .406 OBP, bumping his OPS up to .799.
THE TRENDS
We understand, now, that he’s typically a June guy. Does that hold up? What was leading up to that?
Mar/Apr of ’21, Reynolds hit 2 HR in 25 games, a .792 OPS, and even had a .278 AVG with a .350 BABIP.
In May of ’21, he bounced back to a .294 AVG and .958 OPS; knocking 5 HR before going on a tear in June of ’21.
Mar/Apr of ’22, a .194 in 19 G. .598 OPS. In May, he improved to a .225 AVG and .758 OPS, thanks to hitting 5 HR and walking 11 times. He then hit a month-best 8 HR in June and a .989 OPS.
2023 was a little more interesting than the last two. He began on a tear. .320 AVG and .926 OPS with 5 HR in Mar/Apr.
In May, he began to struggle to a .242 AVG and .726 OPS with 2 HR. When June hit, something seemed wrong. I mentioned his numbers above, but why just 16 games?
On June 20th, he was added to the IL for lower back inflammation. You can assume that he was dealing with that prior to being placed on the IL. After being activated, he played in 23 games in July. He wasn’t right until late July and into August. You can look that up or just take my word for it.
2024
In 2024, Mar/Apr started out with a .248 AVG and .743 OPS; hitting 4 HRs and walking 20 times. Knocked down a little by a .289 BABIP, he still had a sOPS+ of 114.
Then in May, we saw him dip a little. .695 OPS and .250 AVG dropped to a 98 sOPS+. You can see this in the chart above, it was one of his worst months of this sample. I mean, he went from walking 20 times in Mar/Apr to walking only 5 times in May. While he raised his SLG in May, his OBP dropped from .355 to .278.
I think it’s adjustment time.
LET’S DIG DEEPER
In those first 3 months of 2021 (technically 4 because it includes March), Reynolds improved month-by-month in several statistics.
AVG – .278 to .293 to .376. HR – 2 to 5 to 7. OBP – .381 to .387 to .437. Despite increasing his K% 3.5% and decreasing his BB% by 2%.
One of the weirdest things about May 21: Reynolds increased his AVG 15 points, in part, due to a 13-point increase to his BABIP. You can see proof of that increase in some Statcast data. His Barrel% increased almost 2% and his Hard Hit% (95+ EV) increased from 29.4% to 43.9%! This resulted in 4 more doubles (10) and 3 more HR (5) over the previous month. Statcast xBA (Expected Batting AVG) dropped to .247, though, making it so interesting.
In June 2021, the Whiff% dropped, the exit velocity went up, the HardHit% stayed close, Barrel% went up another 2%, BABIP skyrocketed to .394, xBA at .324, and he dropped his K% to just 14.6%. Doubles turned into HR, as he hit 7 cannonballs that month.
Take that line into consideration and look at the graph below. This is Mar/Apr, May, and June from the last 3 seasons. Also, keep note of 2023 and the injury I talked about earlier.
ANCHOR DAHN
The first two months of 2024 have some similarities to previous seasons leading up to June. You could make a case that they are trending similar but the numbers, themselves, a bit better. When it comes to quality of contact in hard hits and barrels, those numbers are higher than they’ve been in 21 or 22. They are all around, though.
There are a lot of outside factors that could go into something to this nature. For example, it could be as simple as the weather warming up and the player prefers warmer weather.
They don’t play MLB games on paper – or computer screens, in this case. But if we are going to use the numbers in front of us to project forward, I would lean on the side of history and suggest that Reynolds is due for another big June.
Maybe we’ll look back at this and say “we saw it coming!” Then again, maybe we’ll have something else to dig into, finding reasons it didn’t pan out the way we thought it might. Either way, I think it’s reasonable to expect good things from #10 this month.
“We think we’re better than we were at this point last year,” Cherington said on 93.7 The Fan recently. “Whatever the record is, whatever the standings were, we think we’re a deeper team, we think will continue to get better over the course of 2024.” – Ben Cherington
I heard him say this and I had to agree. The Pirates finished 2023 strong, but I can’t sit here and tell you I expected one win that wasn’t started by Mitch Keller and Johan Oviedo. This year I kinda think about the fifth spot in the rotation a bit, but feeling like 4 out of 5 games you at least have a comparable pitcher going if not the far superior, it’s hard for me to not feel like the team is better.
That’s how I took it. I thought so little about it that I didn’t even consider it could be taken any other way. I mean, it was that objectively true a statement to me.
I then jumped on social media later in the evening and saw somehow I was the only one who didn’t take this as a direct comparison to this exact point in the 2024 season to this exact point, and their record in 2023.
Man, I didn’t take it that way at all, but then again, it’s not like I panicked and tried to pull back my pre-season prediction of 84 wins either. I really think that’s kinda all that’s being said here, we think this is going to be a better team in 2024, but most people stopped listening after “We think we’re better than we were at this point last year,” and I guess I get that, because objectively, that’s not a true statement.
The context of the remaining statement clarify that, but I suppose I could see why you might be yelling rather than listening to the rest of what he had to say.
I’ll put it this way.
I think they have fewer gaping holes than they did in 2023 at any point right now. Not places there could upgrade, that’s a different conversation, I’m talking straight up missing holes that they simply have no answer for.
I think their starting pitching is among the top 10 in all of baseball, top 5 if they manage to have someone cement the 5th spot, even if it’s a healthy Perez. I’d say 5 right now if I was more confident this group will have enough innings to give to 2024.
The bullpen has been much leakier and if these guys don’t start to find their groove they’ll have no choice but to add.
They must get more lefty production and power. That could be Jack Suwinski, Oneil Cruz, Bryan Reynolds, hey, they quietly keep Canaan Smith-Njigba on their 40-man, who knows. I won’t even suggest Tellez, I’m sure the team would. They need it, and if they don’t get it from any of, or maybe even two of these, they better go get it.
Honestly though, record aside, which most of you called a mirage start anyway in 2023, yeah, I see it as a better baseball team. I go into far more ballgames feeling like they have a good chance to win than I did in 2023.
In fact, as I talk this out, I probably come out of it feeling like they’re largely underachieving as a unit.
That of course points to coaching.
And when your GM publicly says things like this, best believe he’s laying out the same expectations I just did. Guess who he’ll point to if they don’t get there?
The more quotes I hear, the more it becomes clear to me anyway Ben Cherington believes he’s provided enough talent to be in the conversation for a Wild Card in 2024, and more than that, he expects his players and coaching staff to deliver it.
If they do, I’ll point this back at him. If they manage to have themselves in this thing as we approach the deadline, he owes it to them to provide some extra oomph.
Right now, I agree with him. But if this team proves him right and he does nothing to support them to ensure it’s more than just a chance, the underachiever won’t wear a uniform, it’ll wear a Pirates security lanyard.
Following a win in the opening game last night against the flame-throwing right-handed pitcher, Tyler Glasnow, the Pirates will look to keep rolling against contact-oriented southpaw in James Paxton.
The veteran Paxton joined the Dodgers as a free agent this past offseason, providing a steadying presence despite not having overpowering stuff. He enters play Wednesday with a 3.29 ERA and pristine 5-0 record but also a 31:28 K:BB ratio and some underwhelming metrics.
Paxton mostly throws a low-90s fastball up in the zone and low-80s knuckle-curve down and under the zone. He also offers a low-80s cutter and changeup but almost 90% of the time, he’s worked fastball/curve this year.
On the surface, Paxton is getting solid results from his main offerings but over-performing his expected metrics as his xERA (5.24), FIP (5.36) and xFIP (5.39) are all MUCH higher than his ERA.
Paxton has a career BABIP of .300 but despite career-worst strikeout (14.2%) and walk (12.8%) rates, he’s gotten EXTRAORDINARY lucky with a .243 BABIP thus far this season.
And he’s not getting soft contact either as his hard hit rate (40.3%), barrel rate (8.2%) and average exit velocity (88.9 MPH) are all below league average. Regression is on the horizon for him.
Pirates batters need to have patience at the plate against Paxton today – especially right handed hitters as his K/BB rate (0.88) has him walking more batters than he strikes out.
The Bucs have a 102 wRC+ against LHP on the season but have struggled more lately (85 wRC+ since start of May). Deep breaths, relaxed at-bats and strong plate discipline will be key to success over Paxton.
New series! If you follow me on X, you have likely seen my near daily posts breaking down the opposing starting pitcher. We’re going to move that over to Steel City Pirates going forward to provide a more easily accessible format for everyone. Starting off with former Pirates top prospect: Tyler Glasnow.
As we all remember – or at least are regularly reminded of – Glasnow was one of the main pieces sent to the Tampa Bay Rays in that ill-fated 2018 Chris Archer deal. Glas was essentially in long-relief with the Bucs at that point after struggling to a 5.79 ERA over parts of 3 seasons in Pittsburgh before thriving under the Rays tutelage, with a 3.20 ERA across 6 years in Tampa.
Injuries have derailed him several times over the years, but when he’s healthy and on the field, there’s few pitchers better. And now, as part of a Dodgers rotation among the best in baseball, he doesn’t even have to be.
Glasnow currently leads all of baseball in strikeouts (95) with a 2.65 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 74 innings pitched. He can be a bit wild at times as he also leads MLB in wild pitches (8) but has a modest 7.3% walk rate and his advanced metrics – 2.39 xERA/2.65 FIP/2.56 xFIP – lean more favorable to his high K rate, especially given his pitch arsenal.
Glasnow, returning to face the Pirates for the first time since that aforementioned trade, is top tier in K rate and whiff rate, both aided by his 99th percentile extension. We’ve seen how well this long extension has worked with Bailey Falter, who throws considerably slower than the Dodgers ace. Hitters are even more overmatched against Glasnow and his arsenal.
Glasnow has 3 main pitches: the elite high-90s 4-seamer, a low-90s slider and a 12-6 curve in the mid-80s. Both of his secondary offerings have 40%+ whiff rate but his fastball, which he’ll throw most of the time to get ahead in counts before moving to his secondary options, is the big weapon.
Everything works off his fastball, and Glasnow’s is one of the best pitches in baseball – ranking just behind Tanner Houck’s slider and Cole Ragans fastball as the highest Run Value pitch.
While the fastball is a weapon for Glasnow, his curve has been better with opponents batting just .114 and slugging .227 against the offering.
The Dodgers pitching group has the 3rd lowest ERA (3.22) in MLB, and somehow their bullpen is even better (3.07) so it’s going to be a struggle for hitters either way.
Glasnow has been slightly worse of late, allowing multiple runs in each of his last 3 starts, but his 1.69 ERA away from Chavez Ravine and near even splits vs either LHH (.591 OPS) and RHH (.511) means he’s going to be a tough opponent for Bucs bats regardless.
Pirates hitters need to key in on his slider. When it’s off, it’s hittable and opponents have hit it the most among his options with an xwOBA of .285. Work counts and try to get his pitch count up early because this is likely going to be a GRIND of a game if his pitches are on.
If there is a David vs. Goliath in MLB, it’s whenever the Pirates and Dodgers face off as the Pirates have won 8 of the last 13 games against LA. Adding the reigning AL MVP in Shohei Ohtani to a lineup that includes former MVPs in Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman makes a dangerous lineup even more menacing and the additions of Tyler Glasnow and Yoshi Yamamoto to the rotation have further ingrained the Dodgers as the team to beat this season.
Dodgers: Freddie Freeman: I mean, throw a dart at that Dodgers lineup and you’re bound to hit someone who is among the best in baseball at any given point in time. Freeman continues to prove that age is just a number as he has a 1.291 OPS over the past week of games, with a .877 mark on the season.
Pirates: Nick Gonzales: Nicky G has been everything we hoped from him and more. In his 21 games since his promotion back to the Bucs, he has a .308/.360/.500 triple slash while leading the team in RBI (16) during this hot stretch. Eventually, he’ll cool off but this has been fun seeing that Mike Trout swing put up some Mike Trout numbers.
Dodgers: Shohei Ohtani: Over his past 15 games, Ohtani has slashed .193/.270/.351 with just a pair of home runs. Prior to that, he was running a .364/.431/.676 line and slugged 12 long balls in his first 198 plate appearances so this has definitely been a drop in production for the Japanese Base Ruth.
Pirates: Michael A. Taylor: It’s an open secret that the Pirates didn’t sign Taylor for his bat. Despite swatting 21 home runs, he’s historically been a glove-first center fielder and, while he currently has one of the best defensive numbers among all position players in MLB, his offense has never been worse. Since his strong start to the season, Taylor is hitting .129 with just 2 extra base hits since April 5th and has a somehow worse .074/.133/.111 line since May 14 as he’s playing his way out of regular playing time.
Key Injuries
Dodgers: Bobby Miller: It’s hard to say this rotation can be better than it already is but Miller – who was 11-4 with a 3.76 ERA in 22 games last season – is currently rehabbing and, although he won’t return during this series, he will eventually help to deepen this already strong rotational group.
Pirates: Alika Williams: The hit tool he showed during his stint with Indy last year (.915 OPS in 36 games) hasn’t quite translated to the major leagues but he’s still a great late-innings defensive replacement and that’s an important role – especially with how often this bullpen has struggled this year.
Who To Watch
Henry Davis is returning to the Pirates after spending 23 games back with Indianapolis and posting a 1.078 OPS with 7 doubles and 7 home runs. He could make history if he starts as the backstop on Wednesday as the pairing with Paul Skenes would make the first 1:1 draft battery in MLB history.
The Pirates are entering a stretch of games against unfamiliar foes and facing some division mates for the first time this season over the next few weeks. Ya know, if you think you have a team that can compete, you don’t enter any series feeling like you’re completely going to get swept up in the undertow, if there is such a team though, it might be the Dodgers. They can pitch they can certainly hit, hell just for good measure they’re the best fielding team in the league too, now all they have to do is beat Jared Jones, Paul Skenes and Bailey Falter.
See what I mean? It’s hard to ever truly feel like any series is without hope when for the most part you’re tossing a horse at them, even if it’s against one of theirs.
Nobody said it would be easy…
Lets go!
1. Henry Davis is Back
Before I start here, Ethan Smith had some good thoughts on Henry coming back, so if you just want to see the numbers and what it means where, a deeper dive, have at it.
I’m going to focus more on how I think he might be used early on here. For instance, I wouldn’t be shocked to see him sit tomorrow night against Tyler Glasnow and then start the Wednesday game against James Paxton. Thursday being a night game, all bets are off.
This was a quick recall, which really speaks to more of a confidence thing than a technical application of a swing change. Truthfully, that’s kinda all he needed. The kid had himself tied into knots up here and it rendered him ineffective against any form of attack.
It won’t be the last time he struggles at this level, but hopefully he now knows some tricks for clapping his hands in his own face to wake up the hitter inside. This kid pressures himself far more than any manager could, and at some point, that “edge” is going to have to get smoothed into a much less blunt corner for him. He’s gotta stop taking momentary failure so hard, and more than anything, he needs to stop believing he can “try hard” his way into being the hero.
Henry is a natural leader, but this year, it would do him a world of good to join the cast as opposed to trying to direct it. If anything about Henry is real, it’s the bat and the leadership qualities. Everything else needs work, and time to develop. Here’s hoping Henry brings the one thing we think we know we have here, the stick.
2. Quietly As Always, Bryan Reynolds has Really Improved Defensively
Every time people try to write the book on Bryan Reynolds, he shows up with a middle finger and does what most people didn’t think he could do. Remember knowing he’d never hit 25 homeruns? I do.
This off season he had heard enough about his arm strength in the outfield and decided to do something about it. Training all offseason to make stronger throws, executed with better technique. Getting better routes to balls to give himself more opportunities to pick off would be doublers. It wasn’t discussed or highlighted, in fact many were shocked to see the team make plans early on to put him in right field, expressly because of those “known issues” and all he’s done is bounce all over the outfield, play lock down defense everywhere and pick up 7 assists in the first 59 games he’s played in 2024.
It’s been really something to see. He’s getting a bit of a rep too, just yesterday against the Jays he cut off a ball that had no business of being a single, and would have taken a perfect throw to nab the runner at second, and the runner chose to retreat and take his single. Beautiful.
The Pirates aren’t a complete team, but these are improvements you don’t expect to see a 29 year old make. Defensive ability is usually one of those things that start to decline first, certainly don’t improve, so it’s to be celebrated really that he’s shown so much more out there. Lord knows they need a steadying force in the Outfield, he’s really the only one you know will be there every game.
I also wanted to touch on the report from Kevin Gorman from the Trib that he was taking some reps at 1B. I’m certainly not disputing that, Kevin is a great reporter, but I really think most of you only read the headline. I don’t see this as something they’re trying to introduce this year, but I could see it as an interesting answer to a big Pirates problem heading into 2025. If this is something they pursue it could solve 1B and allow the team to go after a more affordable outfielder as opposed to try to swim in the shallow first base market. I wish I felt they had more coming internally for the outfield, because I typically don’t like removing a strength from one area only to create a weakness where it once was, but I can’t deny an internal 1B solution might be the best one they can make.
Whatever challenge Bryan wants to go after, good chance he achieves it so….
Hurry, someone tell him he can’t hit left handed!
3. Why is Jose Hernandez on This Roster?
Jose Hernandez was recalled on May 23rd. He pitched 2/3 of an inning and gave up an earned run.
He hasn’t done a blessed thing since. He’s had a couple stints now with the Pirates this season and he’s gotten into 7 games, 5.1 innings, a 3.38 ERA. He’s one of two lefty relievers on the active roster.
The GM has called him up twice now and twice now, he’s scarcely been used, even while the coach actively complains about his bullpen being taxed. Even when his other lefty is struggling mightily, even while the team has had two big lead opportunities where you might want to toss a guy the coach isn’t sure about to chew on some throw away innings.
So, I have to ask, what the hell is Jose Hernandez doing here? The coach clearly doesn’t feel the same about using him as the GM seems to think he should.
Honestly, they’re acting more this year like he’s a Rule 5 pick than they did last year when he actually was and they trusted him with 50.2 innings and delivered a 4.97 ERA. I mean early on this year, they even let him pick up a save, he looked poised to be not only used but relied on.
If something happened, I missed it.
He’s certainly struggled less than Kyle Nicolas, he’s been given 13 games and delivered a 6.00 ERA. Carmen Mlodzinski keeps getting shots, but he’s at 6 games now and has an 8.31 ERA.
Point is, what am I missing about Hernandez that has him the proverbial red headed step child? (No offense Josh Booth)
I don’t get it. Shelton said after the game that Jose hadn’t gone in 9 days, well, who the hell made that the case? You had two blowouts, one of which was part of a double header, I mean, isn’t that kinda on you?
This feels like a GM and coach simply not agreeing on a player, I’ll just leave it here.
You can’t have a bullpen with 2 guys you want to use, 2 guys you want to be good, one guy you paid to be good but hasn’t been, 1 guy you only pitch once a week and a young lefty who is just rotting. Make it make sense, because a lot of people love to crow about how much they think Shelton is in over his head with nothing to back it up but their own ire, this is physical evidence of wasting resources and mis-deploying talent.
4. Jared Jones Will Be Challenged
The kid has already set record after record here in Pittsburgh. The very early morning portion of his first season in MLB, the Rookie has largely had his way with the league.
3-5 in 11 games with 63 IP, 70 Ks and an outstanding 1.011 WHIP.
He’s for real, he’s here, and he’s just about to start seeing what 2 months in the Majors does to opposition scouting reports.
The thing to look to now is how he and the Pirates navigate the rest of his rookie campaign. First, how the Pirates will manage his innings and in part, how his continued effectiveness might influence some of that plan.
His average velocity hasn’t dropped on his fastball, but his peak offering, that 100-101 on the gun he was starting seemingly every game with, that looks to be just about gone for the year. It’s been replaced by a heavy 98-99 MPH offering with all the same movement, he’s just understandably got a bit less to give here at the beginning of June than he did in April.
The stuff plays plenty good still, but players will make adjustments and I think we’ll see as Jones evolves he’ll have to start using his curve ball or changeup to keep hitters a bit more off balance.
Yasmani Grandal has almost exclusively called sliders and fastballs, but when he starts facing some of these teams a couple times, or they’ve all had enough tape on him, he’ll need to have a bit more velocity change in his back pocket, especially against lefties.
I still believe that the Pirates would like to keep Jones as close to 150 innings as they possibly can. I also believe there is some play in that, and there almost has to be as he sits here with 63.1 innings already on the books. Think about it this way, if he has another very similar showing in June and July, he’ll be sitting at 126.2, in other words he’d enter August with about 25 innings left on the theoretical bucket.
His effectiveness might wain before the Pirates would be forced to pull a shoving pitcher out of a rotation for his health. What I’m saying here is, if he isn’t suffering any loss of “stuff”, they might well decide 150 was a nice idea and they can push it a bit, but you’re just not going to see 200.
There still needs to be some sort of plan to help minimize what they do and this part of the season makes as much sense as any.
Little things they can do, but you have to have a functioning bullpen to do it.
You can start pulling him after 5, hell if your team jumps out and scores a bunch of runs, pull him after 4. No matter how many math tricks you pull off, you’ll always come up with one reality, if this kid is to pitch playoff games this year, this team will have had to ignore innings restrictions. Right or wrong.
And all of that supposes he manages to keep doing a reasonable facsimile of what he’s been. I don’t doubt the talent, I just observe history and pay attention to how pitchers reaching new heights of innings counts tend to degrade at least a little.
I believe in this kid, love the stuff, the head is absolutely locked in. He’s already conquered some hurdles many of them fail with, like learning how to get outs when you don’t have all your best stuff. Featuring your second pitch because the opposition was waiting for what you really want to throw.
He’s jumped every hurdle. The one I’m most worried about is physiology. He’s too important to expect the team to throw caution to the wind, but he’s just as important to any improbable run they might have in the cards right now. In many ways, this is more interesting than how they handle Paul Skenes.
5. Need a Winning Streak
This team hasn’t had a 3 game winning streak since May 6th. Even when they started out 9=2, they had exactly 1 3 game winning streak culminating on April 8th.
It’s actually remarkable how very much so this team has alternated wins and losses game to game as the season has rolled along.
Losses on the other hand, they’ve had a 6 and 3, 3 game stretches. It’s time for the counter balance, and as we enter the 5th complete run through the rotation since Paul Skenes was summoned, its fair to say we should expect this rotation to put this club in position to do that more often.
Sometimes you need short term goals, instead of staring at the Wild Card as a goal, with it’s ambiguous finish line for success, focus on getting back to winning series. manage to do so. Manage as if that rubber match matters. Start learning how to win best of match ups as a team. Put urgency on earning that sweep. Build expectation into taking 2 of 3 and winning the series.
Listen, I’m not saying they’re so clueless as to not want to win more than 1 or 2 in a row. Of course they do, but that’s what it’s going to take.
Another thing I think has played into this, this team simply struggles to hit right handed pitching. It’s brutal when you look at splits for this offense and unfortunately for them, right handed pitching is still far more common than left handed pitching.
I mean, check this out.
Pirates Hitters
LHP
RHP
Overall
League Rank
OPS
.713
.633
.658
27
AVG
.242
.223
.229
25
HR
21
33
54
20
2B
31
55
86
23
BB
62
138
200
8
SO
183
381
564
27
AB
632
1388
2020
12
OBP
.313
.296
.301
25
This team has the success they have in large part because they are 4th in MLB for how many ABs they’ve taken against left handed pitching, and by in large they’re near the top of the league against them.
That shouldn’t surprise anyone, they have more right handed bats, and the lefty’s by in large haven’t hit. Cruz, Tellez, Suwinski and even Reynolds hitting left handed have been scuffling. That’s an impossible thing to recover from. I mean look how many at bats they have against righties. More than double.
You can’t have it in this game. They need left handed production or any streak is always going to be short lived. I mean, take the winning streak aspect out of this all together, just look at the numbers and see how much this issue drags down this offense.
Take Oneil Cruz out of the lineup and this club has arguably the leagues second or third best offense against left handed pitching.
They have got to get more balance, or they need some righties to start picking up the slack for their lefty brethren.
Until that improves, 3 game streaks might be the ceiling.
Get well Jack! Swing for homeruns not highlight reels Oneil! Bryan, we get it, you’re a natural righty, but you got paid for the other side. Rowdy, don’t toy with us, either just don’t hit or hit, please.
Henry Davis has had a wild start to his professional baseball career, from being selected number one overall, to being one of the fastest number one overall selections to come up to the big league level, to being sent down to AAA in May.
Now, Davis appears to be coming back for his second stint with the Pirates, and it begs the question, what has he done in AAA and what impact does it have that he’s returning?
Since his May 3 option, Davis has torn the cover off the baseball with AAA Indianapolis, posting a 1.078 OPS with 7 HR and 17 RBI, including a home-run for Indianapolis in their game versus Omaha on Saturday.
As far as the bigs are concerned for Davis, he departed the big league club with a .162 batting average and a .486 OPS, collecting a mere 4 RBIs in 68 total at-bats. He also had a 31-percent strikeout rate, a 34.6-percent whiff rate and a xBA of .182, so his option was warranted.
Take the strikeout rate, whiff rate and xBA into account, and he’s improved all of those in his short time in AAA, and some, with his strikeout rate down to 12.8-percent, his whiff rate down to 26.9-percent and his xBA up from that terrible .182 clip to a solid .400 clip with the Indians.
— Indianapolis Indians (@indyindians) June 2, 2024
Now, over the course of his time in the minors, Davis has had considerable success, posting a career .968 OPS in the minor leagues over 515 at-bats. Compare that to a career .201 batting average in the bigs, and things get dicey.
There is not doubting Davis has the work ethic and talent to be a solid MLB catcher, hell most of us were worried about his defense and upon his departure, he had a 100, yes 100-percent block rate behind the plate.
One of the bigger obstacles offensively that Davis has to overcome will be hitting MLB fastballs, something he’s struggled with in both seasons he’s played with the Bucs. In 2023, he had a .234 batting-average against fastballs, which isn’t all that bad, but could be better. So far in 2024, that number has dipped considerably to a .149 clip, and it doesn’t make it much better that his batting average is worse against breaking pitches, coming in at a .133 clip.
Going to AAA was about two things for Davis. One, making the needed adjustments at the plate that were likely pointed out by himself and the team and two, and arguably more important, getting his confidence back and proving to himself that he could hit a baseball again.
Over the last week, we’ve seen the Pirates field Yasmani Grandal and Grant Koch as their catchers, and the results are about what you would expect from the duo, especially the latter. With Jason Delay nearing an end to his rehab assignment and Joey Bart on the IL for some time, it’s time for Davis to return and show the team what he has improved on over the past month.
The hope is Davis returns and proves himself offensively, and if he does, the Pirates are back in business behind the plate. If he doesn’t, questions will continue to rise about how the Pirates should continue to handle their number one overall selection from 2022.
Nevertheless, Davis is back, and after some much needed time in AAA, a breakthrough has to happen eventually, you just hope it happens sooner rather than later and positively benefits a Pirates team that has been on the cusp of nearing a .500 record for a few weeks now. Welcome back, Henry Davis, go get ’em.
A team lacking urgency tends to describe a club that isn’t making moves to address issues with their team. At the very least, not fast enough for fans.
What it means this year though, is that local journalists and bloggers and radio hosts, and podcasters and regular fans dahn at Primanti’s, have decided two things. First, that the team saying “competitive” meant World Series now. Second, regardless of what the team said, it’s been deemed by the experts, you know, that list of folks I rattled off up there that YEaeaeeeaerrrrr Fieieeiiiiivvvvvvveee! or bust is a thing.
I mean, subscribe to whatever theory you want, you’re welcome to it. I’m just explaining where it comes from.
We first heard it mentioned this offseason. A team entering Spring Training with “A historically bad rotation”, what a joke right? They have no sense of urgency if they don’t sign Jordan Montgomery! The least they could do is sign Michael Lorenzen, and the rotation would still suck! Bailey Falter has no business on this roster! How can you tell me you want to win and then roster a stiff like Bailey Falter.
Remember all that? Remember it was Mitch and nobody else? Remember how irresponsible they were? How much they didn’t care. How incompetent they were for thinking it had a chance to succeed?
Listen, I understand the frustration, I really do but what some of you see as “urgency” well, some of them are the opposite of ugency.
I just had someone suggest to me tonight that the Pirates should DFA Rowdy Tellez and replace him with recently released Ji-man Choi. A man who couldn’t crack the wretched Mets lineup. A man who was hitting .190 in AAA for the Mets, someone actually said to me “couldn’t be worse”. LOL, why is that the argument? Is that what urgency is to you? Replacing someone who hasn’t hit with another guy who hasn’t hit at a lower level?
You don’t need to force another bad player onto this team to want Rowdy DFA’d, in fact you don’t even have to find another 1B really. Why cloud it in some pining for players who aren’t going to help?
Jake Lamb can’t be worse, look what he’s doing in AAA! OK, again, I quite literally don’t care, but don’t paint that with some air of urgency either for me. In 2022 in AAA with the Dodgers, Lamb tore it up, .290 average, 15 homeruns, .932 OPS, and when an injury cropped up he got a shot with the Blue and they traded him to the Mariners, he did this… .216 Average, 3 HR, .707 OPS.
In 2023 he was in the minors with both the Yankees and Angels, Again, he hit well, .289 AVG, .874 OPS, 11 HR, you know, pretty damn good. Again, he gets a shot this time with the Angels, .216 AVG, .612 OPS, 2 HR.
Better than Tellez, likely. As much power as a even playing halfway decent Tellez, no way. Even so, make the change, just don’t tell me it’s in the name of urgency, it’s more grasping at straws than anything and relatively inconsequential when Connor Joe would likely remain the starter anyhow.
Whoever first uttered this word and started the ball rolling, probably had a good point when they brought it up, but it’s since been bastardized, overused and dumbed down into pretending an Oreo is the greatest cookie ever made but the Hydrox cookie is complete crap. They’re the same damn cookie, one just costs a buck less.
A sense of urgency to me is starting Jared Jones out of camp, and ignoring Super 2 crap to call up Paul Skenes. It’s having a stated goal of getting Nick Gonzales 200 at bats in AAA and changing course when the offense struggled and he did anything but.
Feels to me like we mistake lack of urgency for poor decisions and the time it takes to change course.
I mean, take Nick Gonzales, he entered this Spring being talked about as trade bait, or a bust. Another example of the Pirates failed development system. Peguero and Triolo were light years ahead of him, hell Bae was too at least he could play the outfield too.
A month and a half later, he’s a legitimate example of the team showing the positive side of urgency.
Look, here’s the truth.
This team plans to be a .500 team this year. If they are, and come deadline time they look like they’re on that track with this pitching staff they’ll go add some pieces, not unlike Marlin Byrd or Tommy Pham, or whatever, some first baseman like Lamont Wade Jr. Grab a couple relievers maybe. Try to make a wild card run. Around .500 will be in that conversation.
That’s what they’re trying to do. And they’re trying to do as much of it with young controllable players as they possibly can. The more they pull this off, the better they are for a longer period of time.
The best acquisitions they’ll likely get this year will be a Henry Davis with a rediscovered swing, regardless of where or what he plays, and Jack Suwinski back to hitting homeruns, even if it’s just the streaky kid he was in 2023.
This isn’t a great ballclub. There are only a few of those this year. The Dodgers, Braves, Phillies, Orioles, Yankees, Guardians and maybe Brewers but man, I don’t think I’d go great with them. There are a few teams that stink, will stink, and actively want to stink, like Angels, White Sox, Marlins, Rockies, A’s.
Then there’s everyone else. Most of those teams are either spending a bunch and not getting results. Trying to grow internal players and going through growing pains. Or Both.
That’s a whole lot of teams still trying to figure out which side of the fence they’re going to land on, a whole lot of teams that should probably be more urgent. Problem is, you have to have teams that know they aren’t going anywhere, identify players they both have and are willing to move and then you have to decide how much you’re willing to give up.
There are about 10-15 teams in this purgatory.
All their fans feel the same way. There is no way there without patience. Giving up on young players too quickly defeats the purpose of rebuilding in the first place. That doesn’t always look pretty in fact sometimes it’s really a waste of time, unfortunately there’s only one way to find out. That’s right, making you watch a kid try to learn against the best players in the world.
Is it lack of urgency to continue to try to get Oneil Cruz to hit lefties, or is it answering a question you simply have to have answered. Is it lack of urgency to keep running Old Guy Andrew McCutchen out there when he can’t catch up to fastballs anymore, and he can’t run, he’s not even drawing walks? Or is it knowing what’s in there and being patient because you have good reason to expect the results will come and you’ve banked on the contribution?
Urgent but smart. Easy to say, hard to live up to. Trade pitching close to MLB for help in MLB and you’re a TJ or two from looking like an ill prepared moron. Don’t make a deal for fear of what might be and risk not doing enough to really give what you have built a chance to overachieve.
It’s more than a buzz word. It’s certainly more than swapping a scrub for a scrub. Face the reality of what this season is or don’t, that’s up to you. I’m just going to be over here enjoying my team as it continues to improve.
6-1-24 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on Twitter
Well, if we learned much of anything from May, it is that this division is VERY fluid. The Brewers are the clear leader right now with the end of month tiers breaking down something like this: Tier 1 Milwaukee Tier 2 Chicago, St. Louis, Pittsburgh Tier 3 Cincinnati
Pittsburgh finds themselves in the backend of Tier 2, but could very easily tumble down into Tier 3 or even up to the top of Tier 2. June promises to provide even more movement on this front since we are getting a ton of intra-divisional games. I don’t have a whole lot more to add on the front end, getting into the individual teams is the whole point here anyway!
Let’s check in on the Enemies.
Team
Wins
Losses
Milwaukee Brewers
34
23
St. Louis Cardinals
27
28
Chicago Cubs
28
30
Pittsburgh Pirates
26
31
Cincinnati Reds
25
32
Milwaukee Brewers
Lineup Willy Adames – Adames continued his strong 2024 season into May by blasting 5 homers, scoring 20 runs, driving in 22, and swiping 4 bags. His slash line fell back down to more near his career line. He still ranks top 11 in all of baseball for fWAR. William Contreras – Contreras the Younger further cementing himself as one of the top catchers in the sport. As May winds down he holds a narrow fWAR lead over Will Smith for the best in baseball. Crushing the ball with a 94.0 average exit velocity and a 55.7% hard hit rate. Brice Turang – Turang slowed some from a production standpoint, but he has backed up his breakout as being a major league caliber player. Speed/defense/on-base ability are all hanging around for him through May. Jackson Chourio – Rookie bats have been adjusting very slowly this year and that holds true for Chourio. Milwaukee is shielding him some by giving him less PAs, and while the results aren’t showing up yet, his approach appears to be trending in the right direction at the very least. His batted ball data is not atrocious, but it has been disappointing early returns nonetheless. Joey Ortiz – What a month for Ortiz. He was always undervalued despite being a top 100 prospect, but that was mostly a function of being buried in such a loaded Baltimore system. Ortiz drilled 4 homers, 6 doubles, 1 triple, a .408 wOBA, & a 168 wRC+ in May. He sure looks like a cornerstone for this club. Joey Wiemer – Long a favorite prospect of mine, Wiemer does not look like he’s got it. He is still just 25 years old & has battled injury, but he is now even struggling at AAA. Likely not happening any time soon for him.
Pitching Freddy Peralta – A somewhat disappointing May stat line wise for Freddy, but his underlying stuff still pops as being a very good pitcher. I’d expect much better months, production wise, ahead. Robert Gasser – Gasser got the call and made 4 great starts in May. The stuff itself doesn’t really standout other than a very good sweeper, but he has excelled at generating weak/poor contact against. I do not think he is quite as good as what he has shown thus far, he looks the part of a mid-to-back end starting pitcher. Trevor Megill – Megill got his shot to fill the vacated closer role and he had a very good May in doing so. He posted 7 saves and a 12/0 K/BB across 9 appearances. Joe Ross – Ross made 3 strong starts in May before exiting his 4th start early due to injury. In some ways he is similar to Gasser – not a frontline pitcher, but offers a strong swing & miss slider and across the board OK arsenal. His return from a low-back strain will shelve him for a while, but he appears to have found something here. Tobias Myers – Myers finds himself back in the big league rotation with the Ross injury. In some ways he is the lesser version of Ross. He’s got a swing & miss offering in the slider but not much else with his repertoire pops. There is some K stuff here & in two of his 4 May starts, his command was clean. More of a guy to monitor here, but might just be a back-end/swing man, moderate K SP.
Minor League Check In Jacob Misiorowski – Miso has incredible stuff. Unfortunately he also has incredible issues with control. You can never count out a guy with this kind of nuclear K stuff, he MUST clean up the command to ever fulfill his potential. Yujanyer Herrera – Promoted to A+ and has not quite sustained his dominance. The K stuff is still showing but there is clearly a fair amount of development to be done here. Mike Boeve – After blowing out A+, Boeve received a promotion to AA. His production has been slowed a bit but he is still hitting. I don’t think there is any question that he will be a big-league capable hit tool guy. Still development to be done and he may not have significant power and there are some concerns about defensive home. If he picks up the power output, look out. Eric Bitonti – An early Complex league standout. Most notable for his immense power, Bitoni has popped 4 homers, 5 doubles, and 2 triples in 20 games. He has swing & miss concerns and is striking out at a 31.6% rate early on. He has a chance to be a serious helium guy if that strikeout rate comes down closer to 25%. Big time watchlist name here. Fillipo Di Turi – Another Complex standout here. Di Turi is the anti-Bitonti. He has walked more than he has struckout in 19 games and has been incredibly productive with a top 10 wOBA across all qualified minor leaguers. Because of the approach, hit tool, & projection Di Turi appears to be on a B-line for top 100 status should this carry over as he advances up the ranks for A ball.
St. Louis Cardinals
Lineup Ivan Herrera – Herrear finds himself locked in to near regular playing time with Willson Contreras injured. Not much production yet, but he is showing the skills to be a good offensive catcher. He hits it hard with regularity and there will be production to follow should he keep this up. Paul Goldschmidt – While he isn’t completely dead, we are definitely seeing a diminished version of Goldy thus far in 2024. His batted ball data in May is looking good though, with a 92.6 average EV & a 49.2% hard hit rate. More production should be following for the aging star. Nolan Gorman – As bad as Gorman was in April, his end of May has been productive. He appears to be locking himself in as a low-BA, good OBP, slugger. He is likely to be prone to long stretches of frustrating play and equally scorching stretches of power binges. Nolan Arendao – Sort of the opposite situation as Goldy. Things under the hood are not looking so hot for Arenado. The average EV is down to 86.4 and the hard hit rate at 34.2%. Early going thus far, but his time as a force in the lineup might be running out. Alec Burleson – Burelson has the look of a solid hitter. Will likely post good BAs and modest power production. He had a good month of May with 3 homers, 4 doubles, & a .302 average. Masyn Winn – Winn showed some very good stuff in May. Winn hammered 2 homers, 7 doubles, and slashed .313/.333/.475. He has an interested approach with a 3.6/9.5% BB/K% with some free swinging tendencies featuring a 91.1% Z-contact and a 84.5% O-contact backed by a 88.7% overall contact rate. He is an exciting and talented player, but his approach will be something to monitor. Lars Nootbar – A very good month for Nootbar. 4 homers, a .371 wOBA, and a 146 wRC+. Unfortunately for Nootbar and the Cardinals, he once again finds himself on the IL.
Pitching Sonny Gray – Sonny continued to chug along in May. Across 28.2 IP he went 4-1, 35/8 K/BB, with a 3.77 ERA, & a 1.08 WHIP. Gray is still good. Ryan Helsley – A down month outside of 8 saves in his 9 appearances. He currently leads the Major Leagues with 18 saves. JoJo Romero – Extremely sharp again in May. Registered 8 holds & paces the Majors with 18. Lance Lynn/Kyle Gibson/Miles Mikolas – This trio is still not particularly good, but they have been pitching acceptably enough for the time being. Lynn & Mikolas in particular have better underlying indicators than their ERA would suggest. Gibson had a quietly effective May on the surface and underlying side.
Minor League Check In Tink Hence – Tink has been victimized by the longball some in May, but the stuff is super loud. He was also hit by the BABIP monster and some long ball trouble. He is a dawg. Quinn Mathews – Mathews received the promotion to A+ and has continued to prove that he is a real pitching prospect. 19 IP, 24/3 K/BB, 2.84 ERA, & 0.68 WHIP. You have to assume that a handful more starts in A+ should be all the Cardinals need to see before getting him to AA. Very possible top 100 prospect here should his dominance continue. Darlin Saladin – Very interesting arm here. He really shoved in May with a 0.69 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, and 37/7 K/BB. One to closely monitor. Nathan Church – Church fell off some in May, but not too significantly. He has a similar approach to Masyn Winn. Free swinging but makes a high amount of contact regardless. Sammy Hernandez – An interesting teenage catching prospect. No power showing up yet, but the production has been impressive nonetheless with a .390 wOBA & a 136 wRC+ in May.
Chicago Cubs
Lineup Cody Bellinger – He just keeps on chugging. At a certain point, when a player continually outperforms underlying numbers, it becomes a skill in its own right. It is hard to say when or if it will come to an end, but right now it isn’t. 3 homers, 8 doubles, .307/.344/.500 triple slash, .367 wOBA, & a 141 wRC+. Let the good times roll for Belli. Nico Hoerner – As predicted in April, Hoerner has found his footing in May. Not a star talent, but a cornerstone type player still. Worth monitoring that the defense has slipped some in 2024. Christopher Morel – The Morel Experience continues in May. He absolutely punishes the ball on a regular basis and while the stat line is not particularly impressive outside of drilling homers and knocking in runs, there is a lot to like here. Morel has cut his K% by nearly 10% and raised his BB% by 3.7%. His stat line was depressed by a very low BABIP, .209, about 81 points below his career norm. He is due for an absolutely nuclear month. Michael Busch – Busch hopped on the struggle bus in May. He does appear to be fulfilling the low-BA, decent OBP, slugger role that many envisioned though. Pete Crow-Armstrong – PCA has been up and down with the Cubs & is not locked in to starting yet. Hard to get a ton out of his sample size so far, but the defense & speed are proving to be his calling card so far. Seiya Suzuki – Returned from injury and has not been nearly as sharp as before his IL trip. His batted ball data looks good and I expect him to get it rolling as we head into June.
Pitching Justin Steele – Steele had a tough month. He got knocked around twice by the Bucs and once by the Braves in his return. His final start of the month saw him return to a more Steele-like form. He went 7IP, 8/1 K/BB, yielding only 3 hits, and 0 runs. He will look to carry this momentum in to June. Hayden Wesneski – Wenseski made 10 appearances and 2 starts in May. For the time being he has settled into a bullpen role and could get further opportunities to start as needed. Shota Imanaga – Imanga tossed 30.1 IP in May with 26 of them being spectacular. The Brewers roughed him up badly in his final May appearance, but it cannot be overstated just how good he has been early for the Cubs. He sits in the top 15 for fWAR at the end of the month. Ben Brown – Ben Brown ladies & gentlemen. Brown closed out May by utterly dominating the Brewers going 7 IP, 10/2 K/BB, 0 hits, 0 runs. Prior to this start he had only made brief appearances only lasting 4.2 IP in his next deepest start. He had a top 10 fWAR in the month of May and will continue to get opportunities going forward.
Minor League Check In Nick Dean – A 2023 college draftee, Dean tuned up A ball likely by virtue of being too advanced for the level. He has since been bumped to A+ and has only made two starts so far. Mostly a name to watch as he gets into the upper levels. Yohendrick Pinango – Enjoying a breakout season so far. This was his 3rd year repeating A+ and he finally cracked that level. Pinango was promoted to AA and has yet to get it going in his 13 game sample. Another name to watch as he was showing a promising blend of power & hit in A+ by leading Chicago’s minor league system in wOBA & wRC+. Kevin Alcantara – The Jaguar made encouraging strides in AA during May seeing his K% drop down to 22.7%. Keeping this in check is going to be very big for him going forward. A massive toolshed prospect in the vein of Oneil Cruz/Elly De La Cruz, probably a bit less eye-popping, but incredible potential here. Owen Cassie – Starting to catch on in AAA, Cassie has his K% below 30% & all the way down to 24.5% in May. Should this trend continue, he will be in Chicago this season. Matt Shaw – Shaw is handling his business at AA. Not jumping off of the page yet, but certainly not disappointing either. Cade Horton – Has found himself on the MiLB IL with a lat strain.
Cincinnati Reds
Lineup Elly De La Cruz -Elly found himself in a prolonged slump for nearly the entire month. Not much production outside of leading the Majors in steals with 13 swipes in May. It should be noted that his defense graded well this month and particularly OAA views him as quite a good defender. A player with his profile will definitely be prone to long stretches of frustrating play and Reds fans are living through one now. The good (and also bad) news is that a massively slumping De La Cruz still paced the Reds in fWAR for May. Stuart Fairchild – He only made 44 PAs in May, but they were highly productive. A .397 wOBA and 155 wRC+. He is not a full time player, but this is great value for the club. Will Benson – K’s continued to pile up for Benson. 37.2% K rate is simply too much to sustain a full time role. There was some production still, a 94 wRC+ and .308 wOBA, but the trade off is probably not enough, especially for a player that does not make a defensive impact. Everyone Else – Truthfully almost every other player in the Reds lineup was very poor in May. So poor that it is not really worth highlighting them! Better days are almost certainly ahead, but this had to be an extremely disappointing month for Cincinnati fans.
Pitching Hunter Greene – 30IP, 2 wins, 2.40 ERA, & 1.20 WHIP in May as Greene continued to take that breakout leap. Nick Martinez – Martinez only made 1 start in May but went for 19.1IP. Very successful in the long-man role. Nick Lodolo – Lodolo had a bit of a rough month in May, but the overall statistics are still pristine. He has continued to battle some injuries on and off, but the ingredients are here. The biggest impediment for Lodolo appears to always be his health. Fernado Cruz – Oh baby look at those underlying numbers. He has a 48% K rate on the back of his totally bonkers splitter. The splitter has a 61.6% whiff rate. That is insane. Cruz has some command issues that really hurt his output, but the stuff is crazy. Alexis Diaz – The struggles continue for Diaz. The lack of command is really hurting him this year. Plenty of time to turn that around, but it has been rough. Lucas Sims – Sims was really good in 11 appearances. A 100% strand rate, 9/1 K/BB, 1 save, & a 1.08 ERA, and a 0.60 WHIP.
Minor League Check In Rhett Lowder – Lowder got the call to AA and it has been a hard adjustment for him. He did however just have his most successful AA start going 4 IP, 7/1 K/BB, 5 hits, 1 ER. I’d expect him to adjust appropriately and have a much better summer. Sal Stewart – Sal walks more than he strikes out, has great zone command, and a strong hit tool. Should the power begin to tick up, he could be ticketed for top 50ish prospect status. Reports on his defense are a little murky, so that will depress his rankings some. But he is a pure hitter. Jay Allen II – Allen II continued his march to top 100 prospect status in May. 4 homers, 8 steals, .419 wOBA, & a 155 wRC+. Crucially the K% is staying manageable at 23.5%. Ricardo Cabera/Alfredo Duno – This A ball duo is still looking legit. Sporting .383/.372 wOBA respectively, this is an exciting teenage duo for the Reds. Duno in particular is receiving a lot of attention and should be climbing catcher prospect ranks as the year wears on. Chase Petty – Petty had 1 awful, no good, very rotten start in AA in May. If you take that one away he was shoving to the tune of a 1.80 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 23/5 K/BB. Just don’t go look up that start from 5/25/2024. Simply viewing the stat line might melt your face as if you just opened the Ark of the Covenant.
The Wrap
May 2024 saw pretty brutal play from Cincinnati and Chicago while St. Louis found their stride as the month wound down. The Brewers maintained a steady enough pace to hold their spot on the top of the hill. Many divisional games will take place in June. The chaos that could unfold in the standings during June has me fired up for the summer months. I am already looking forward to the next installment!
Moises Ballesteros – Ballesteros is one of the slightly lesser heralded catcher prospects in the game, but I believe that this changes in 2024. Making it all the way to AA as a 19 year old, Ballesteros possesses a strong approach and makes pretty high quality of contact, in fact he sports an impressive 90th% exit velocity (104.9) that supports the fact that he will likely be an above-average power producer as he ages. This type of profile might really boom very soon.
Ben Brown – Ben Brown appeared to be on the verge of making the Majors in 2023 and then he scuffled upon reaching AAA. He possesses very good stuff but also command issues. Chicago may be toying with moving Brown to the bullpen as he only made one Spring Training start. He will almost certainly be a Major League player, role TBD.
This Chicago team is put together well and positioned to be a challenger in the Central. From the outset of the season I think that Cubs have a compelling case to expect to be in the running to be division champs. Strong line up, competent pitching staff, plenty of bullpen juice, and one of the best farm systems in the entire league. It will be very fun to check in on this group on a month to month basis.
Steel City Pirates 