The timing on Paul Skenes call-up could not have been more perfect

Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN 05/09/24

Folks, Paul Skenes is officially coming up to the big league roster on Saturday versus the Chicago Cubs in what is arguably the biggest prospect debut in the history of the Pittsburgh Pirates franchise.

It had been “speculated” since he was drafted number one overall in the 2023 MLB Draft as to when Skenes would make his highly anticipated MLB debut, but the time is now and room for speculation is out the window, at least for when it will happen, there is plenty surrounding how Skenes will perform out of the gate and throughout what should be a lengthy MLB career.

Enough has been said about Skenes, he is a generational pitching prospect that has constantly been compared to the likes of Stephen Strasburg and Gerrit Cole since his collegiate days at Air Force and LSU, but the effect this move has on the team could mean even more than what he does on the mound on Saturday.

Last season, the Pittsburgh Pirates entered a nine-game stretch versus the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers that began on June 13, with six of those games versus Chicago and three versus Milwaukee and three of those nine games coming at PNC Park, much like the upcoming stretch with an extra game at Wrigley Field sprinkled in for good measure.

For those who don’t remember, even though I am sure 99 percent of you reading do, the Pirates entered that stretch 34-30 coming off of a series win versus the New York Mets and still in prime contention for a very winnable NL Central. The proceedings nine contests practically took them out of that contention, as the Pirates lost 10 consecutive games, nine to the Brewers and Cubs and one to the Marlins, effectively taking the wind out of the sails of the Pirate’s ship.

A big talking point prior to that stretch last season was the decision to not select the contracts of Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez, who at the time were lighting it up at AAA-Indianapolis and would’ve given more offensive output than Austin Hedges and Jason Delay, the catchers on the roster at the time. They were eventually called up shortly after, but it seemed too late to recover from what would end up being a death sentence to their NL Central hopes.

Some other factors come into play from that stretch as well, like Oneil Cruz being sidelined for the entire season after his gruesome injury early in the year and the lack of starting pitching in the back-end of the rotation.

Let’s tie this all together now shall we? Of the points I just made, factor in a couple of things for me. For starters, and this should be noted, the 2024 Pittsburgh Pirates are obviously not the 2023 Pittsburgh Pirates, in most cases when looking around the roster, they are just a flat out better team.

Unlike 2023, Oneil Cruz is healthy, and quite honestly, he’s picked it up as of late, hitting .327 over his past 15 games, and is a major factor in when the lineup is on and when it isn’t, which is hasn’t been for a few weeks now, but that’s a different story for another day. Also, the pitching staff has been quite the force to be reckoned with to begin 2024, ranking 11th in MLB in ERA, 15th in strikeouts and 8th in WHIP, so its a much better group overall than what we saw last season.

Take into account as well that as far as starting pitching is concerned, the contributions have come from everyone, as Mitch Keller has improved as of late, Martin Perez has been a steady, veteran presence, Jared Jones has continued to break multiple rookie records from a starting pitcher and even Quinn Priester and Bailey Falter have given you some good outing, although one of them will like be removed from the rotation as a result of Skenes arrival.

I said on my show, Locked On Pirates, that Skenes debut feels almost like a trade deadline move in May, because it almost feels like the Pirates acquired an ace, but it just so happens this budding star was there just waiting to leave Indianapolis and come to Pittsburgh, sorry Pat McAfee, don’t take that the wrong way.

So now you enter Skenes into a rotation that is already having considerable success, creating a lethal quartet of Keller, Perez, Jones and Skenes with a fifth starter, either Priester or Falter, who has given you solid outings, and take into account for just a moment that heading into this 10-game stretch versus Chicago and Milwaukee that in eight of those 10 games, the Pirates will have those four pitching, and chances are if the offense can even muster a minimal amount of offense, they have a better chance of winning with those guys on the mound.

The timing could not have been more perfect, and with the Pirates preaching about winning all offseason, this is a decision and a roster move that amplifies that thought process. The Pirates have sputtered over the past couple weeks, and calling up a prospect with the magnitude that Skenes possesses is something that surely becomes contagious across the entire roster and organization, and likely creates something the Pirates desperately need right now, momentum.

It is absolutely no guarantee that Skenes call-up propels the offense out of futility, he doesn’t swing the bat anymore and won’t swing the bat anymore like he did at Air Force. What is a guarantee is that he has MLB stuff already, and he gets to showcase it for the first time on Saturday, and because of that, the Pirates are a better baseball team as of today than they were yesterday before the announcement was made official, and that’s just a matter of fact.

When you have the opportunity to call-up a generational, MLB ready talent, you do it, and the Pirates seemed to do it at the perfect time, heading into a stretch against the top-two teams in their division with a chance to close the gap and assert their spot as a contending team within a very winnable division that should just about every team fighting for the division pennant through September, and Skenes helps the Pirates get closer to that goal because again, he makes this baseball team better right now, and that’s just what the doctor ordered as the cure to hopefully propel the Pirates over their NL Central foes over the next week and change.

Paul Skenes welcome to the show, to me, it couldn’t have been a better time to do so, break and leg and well, thanks to Jared Jones, no pressure.

Pirates Top Prospect Paul Skenes to Make MLB Debut Saturday, May 11th

5-8-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The Pirates have decided the time is now for their prolific top prospect Paul Skenes.

It’s always welcome to add a potentially special talent and here’s hoping it jumpstarts the offense, because largely, the pitching has been way above board.

Tell you what, let’s circle back to that stuff, you know, all the who goes for him and where the 40-man spot comes from info, and how it’s not addressing what is holding this team back and instead let’s celebrate this for what it is.

A truly remarkable talent. Unique in his size, his background, his makeup and demeanor. This is truly a full grown man, military trained and ingrained to the point of being incredibly self disciplined.

A 1:1 selection that really required almost no development whatsoever. (Haha, perfect for the Pirates, I get it and never ever saw it coming I promise.)

All that and he’s dating just about everyone under the age of 25’s dream girl, social media star and a damn fine athlete in her own right Olivia Dunne.

Yeah, this is kind of a big deal.

He’s 6 foot 6 inches, 235 pounds of come and get it, and more than that, he wants the fight. If you’re a Pirates fan who is afraid to let yourself get excited for anything, listen, I’m 47 and he’s the most sure to be a MLB player draft pick I’ve ever seen in this city.

There’s a lot you could pile on this kid, I’ll try not to. You can never predict how a career will turn out. And this sport certainly isn’t set up to see a team like the Pirates retain him into his golden years, but talent wise, this is Crosby or Lemieux level. It’s Bryce Harper, it’s Strasberg, it’s guys like that. Not to expect him to live up to what they’ve done, but he’s easily the most anticipated prospect in quite some time in these parts. In a word, generational.

That’s the talent, that’s the makeup of this kid, and now all he has to do is take his first step toward living up to it, staying healthy long enough to be the truly all time great he wants to be, win a championship or two, somehow navigate the media and attention and be the face of a team currently treading water with one arm.

Be excited, the moment deserves it, the player deserves it and honestly, as unlikely as it seems, get ready for the baseball world to be gawking at Skenes and Jared Jones all season long.

Now, About that One Armed Doggie Paddle

The offense is sputtering, and this probably won’t help. You can hope it gives the room a jump and the buzz of getting this guy up here puts a burr in the saddle of some of these hitters, but they’ve had a pitching phenom setting records up here all season long and they refuse to score runs for him, so I don’t expect that to organically change.

They can make changes, there are some on the table.

Elephant in the room first though, Rowdy Tellez won’t be going anywhere yet. First, he’s hit pretty well in his last 7 games or so, and second, they honestly don’t have a better bet, at least not without giving him another month to show them they were wrong.

Because you can’t just say something like that today without it being read as a ringing endorsement, no, I’m not saying he’s good, no I’m not saying he’ll get good, I’m saying he’s shown some recent signs of life, and regardless was going to get into June.

Take a moment and sulk, I get it, but do come to grips with the fact that he’s not even in the top 5 of this team’s problems offensively.

The “Big” 3

Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz are the first guys that need change. They need to be closer to what they’re supposed to be. Cruz is starting to show he’s coming around, in fact he’s starting to carve a niche in the middle of the order and that is a big development.

Reynolds has been locked in from the right side of the plate all season long, and he just made an adjustment left handed, introducing a bit of a timing mechanism that showed some results the other night but has to improve. He’s overperforming right handed and underperforming left handed.

Ke’Bryan Hayes has been hit or miss, but I’d lay money that after two days off he’ll look much better on Friday. I think they need to insist he sit once a week, a fresh Ke’Bryan Hayes is a much more productive Hayes.

If the “big” three perform, this offense will do enough. That was the case before the season started, it’s what most of us who thought they’d score runs banked on and more than any other reason, they don’t have a replacement for what they were supposed to get from any of these guys.

The Secondary Attack

This is your Connor Joe, Jack Suwinski, Jared Triolo, Rowdy Tellez, Michael Taylor type guys.

Connor Joe has completely outperformed his role, so much so he’s been pulling off the production of one of the Big 3 for the entirety of the season. I love the player he’s become, but if there is more there than what he’s showing, I’d be shocked, in fact it’s very likely he’ll eventually hit the skids himself. By then our first group better be pulling their own weight.

Connor should immediately start playing a lot more first base but this team isn’t just going to keep Rowdy around, they’re going to force the issue and force him into the lineup. Again, brace yourselves, it’s gonna happen.

I know how some of you feel about Jack Suwinski, but this team can’t afford to go without the power they’re counting on. They aren’t built to win without it, and playing him a lot is the only way to get him going. He too is starting to make better contact, my fear is they’ve asked him to avoid striking out. Hear me out, it’s almost entirely eroded his power. He’s doing a great job of cutting down on K’s, but he’s done it by attacking earlier in counts. Something a good hitter should always have in their quiver, but to make the most of his power he needs to hunt his pitch to a degree. This is going to be a bit of a dance, but he should get going and when he does, this team would be wise to not disrupt him. Don’t sit him until it cools.

Taylor has always been a pretty poor hitter. One who showed power last year that even proponents of his signing didn’t expect to see again. He’s here for the glove and on occasion he’ll pitch in. Early in the season you saw a glimpse of what he can do, he will get on a heater here and there.

I know I mentioned Triolo here, but know what, he deserves his own.

Jared Triolo

Hell of a defender, love having the glove and feeling the need to rest Hayes more, man I hate to lose it. He isn’t much at the plate. The swing change to generate more power, well, isn’t. He almost looks like he’s all arms up there. Nick Gonzales has been hard to ignore.

I have questions about how sustainable it is at this level, but I do think he’s going to get the call soon, and I think Triolo will have to be the move for him. If Nick gets called, he’s not going to play just a little.

Fans are always ready for a call before the team, that’s normal, but a number one pick who’s been sent down, well, you want to be as sure as you can be that this is the last call up he experiences. So I can see the patience here.

Ji Hwan Bae has hit well too, less power of course, he too has struggled to make it translate to MLB, but this would be his 3rd time, so the pressure to use him a ton isn’t a as paramount. He gives them a couple things they need, speed and another lefty bat. This lineup’s splits are so one sided I almost fell over typing this.

I’m not commanding either here, but I do believe they need to call on one of them very soon. If it’s Bae, you can’t see the move being Triolo, you’d have to go with Olivares. If it’s Nick, you could see Triolo, and Nick would have to cover 3rd for Hayes, or, it could be Olivares as an extra IF alignment instead of the OF setup they have.

Who Goes for Skenes?

They could wind up moving Ryan Borucki or Marco Gonzales to the 60-day IL or they could simply cut someone loose.

The only pitcher I could see being a casualty is Roansy Contreras. This would clear a spot for Paul on the 26-man and clear the 40-man spot in one swipe. They’d have to DFA him, and yes, they’d lose him. There isn’t even another pitcher I’d consider this with and even this one is because bringing up Paul can’t weaken the staff, any other bullpen arm taken away aside from Contreras, would be that for me. Another reason this makes sense, Bailey Falter also has no options and has easily pitched into getting a shot in the pen, even as a long man.

Quinn Priester could go back, but I’d like to see him get another start or two, they can always cycle back to Falter if it doesn’t take, but Quinn is worth showing a little confidence in. Even if they just use him to skip a Jones start later in the week.

That’s what I got.

to me it’s Roansy or Quinn. If it’s Quinn, Falter stays in the rotation, if it’s Roansy, Falter goes to the pen.

If it’s Quinn, they’ll need to either pop one of those guys I mentioned on the 60-day or Joshua Palacios.

After that, Rowdy is the only other DFA-able player, and like I said, ain’t happening. Resume Mourning.

That’s what I got. This is going to instantly be one of the most formidable rotations in baseball. Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, Mitch Keller, Martin Perez and Bailey Falter or Quinn Priester.

Backed by Mike Burrows when healthy, maybe Marco Gonzales at some point, maybe, Josh Fleming could jump in, in a pinch, and some other kids that realistically a playoff team wouldn’t want to on board.

Let’s have fun with it.

The hitting that helps this team win is either largely in that room or it isn’t. They’re going to pitch their asses off.

Five-Up, Five Down: April

5-8-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN on X

In a new monthly piece, brought to you by your’s truly, I’ll be taking a look at ten players in the organization, five who are up, playing good baseball and five who are down, playing on the wrong side of those gruesome baseball Gods.

With the minor league schedule starting later than the MLB schedule, I wanted to wait just a bit longer for the minor leagues to get deeper into their season before debuting this piece, but here we are, so let’s get right into it.

Who’s Up?

Connor Joe

It is quite hard to start the list of the guys who are playing up and not include Connor Joe to begin the 2024 season.

Joe is now 104 at-bats into the season, and his .801 OPS leads the team still as he has been one of the their best offensive options to begin the year.

Another reason why Joe is so important is his versatility, both offensively and defensively, and we’ve seen that quite a bit as well, as Joe has played first base, both corner outfield spots and even been a designated hitter, thriving especially as a pinch hitter late in ballgames, as he is hitting above .300 in the sixth-eighth innings of ballgames.

Joe is hitting .283 over his last 15 games, so he is showing no signs of slowing down, you just hope the rest of the offense can continue to take small steps forward to catching up to his production.

Martin Perez

I was a huge fan of the Pittsburgh Pirates acquiring Martin Perez in the off-season, I even predicted the signing in my off-season wishlist on Locked On Pirates, and so far, the acquisition seems to be paying off for both Perez and the Pirates.

Through seven starts, Perez has a 3.15 ERA over 40.0 IP, while sporting a 1.38 WHIP and 31 strikeouts, which equates to about a 6.98 K/9, his highest total since his strong 2022 campaign.

Perez is also sporting the second lowest HR/9 of his career so far at 0.45 and he is filling the zone more than ever with a career high .660 strike percentage.

What is most impressive from Perez’s start though is that he has only went 5 or less innings twice thus far, his first start versus Miami and April 21 versus Boston, and he hasn’t allowed more than four runs in any start this season.

Once again, it seems like the Pirates acquired a strong, veteran left-handed pitcher via free agency, and we’ll see if Perez can continue to be strong on the mound as the season progresses.

Oneil Cruz

You may be asking yourself how Oneil Cruz makes the players playing up list, but hear me out.

Yes, I know Cruz is among the league leaders in strikeouts right now with 50, but lately, and well, slowly, he’s been getting back to the player we’ve all wanted to see him become, a power hitting lefty who strikes fear into opposing pitchers.

Over his last 15 games, Cruz is batting .298 with two home runs and six RBIs, and although that average number dips to a .241 over his past 30, his advanced metrics suggest his strong play as of late should be here to stay.

Cruz’s average exit velocity and hard hit percentage are in the 88th percentile or higher, and while his whiff, chase and strikeout rates are low, his xSLG is above average at .397, so if Cruz can get a hold of the ball, which we have seen him do as of late, expect some of those bad numbers to come down and the numbers he’s usually good in continue to rise.

Jared Jones

Jared Jones is up and well, yea, duh, of course he is.

Jones has been electric since debuting in Miami earlier this year and he hasn’t slowed down, striking out 52 batters across 41.0 IP while sporting a 2.63 ERA and 0.78 WHIP, so yea, the rookie is doing just fine.

In particular, we’ve been able to see Jones adjust on the fly and attack opposing hitters with force, much like we saw in his outing versus the Giants, when he allowed three earned but managed to keep the game in reach for the Pirates no matter what.

Statcast analytics also love Jones, who ranks in the 94th percentile or higher in five different areas, including chase rate and strikeout rate. His xBA and xERA are also high metrics as well, and when you only major issue is giving up a solo shot every now and then, not only will that please Jones and the team, but the fans as well.

Nick Gonzales

Nick Gonzales is the first minor league player featured on Five-Up, Five-Down, and for good reason.

Gonzales was placed in AAA to begin the season with the log jam of middle infielders the Pirates have at their disposal, but Gonzales has taken every opportunity in Indianapolis and absolutely nailed it thus far.

Through 114 ABs, Gonzales has a 1.018 OPS, three homers and 17 RBIs, and what might even be more important than all of that is his strikeout numbers being way down to what we’ve seen in the past, currently sitting at 22, or a strikeout about every five at-bats.

In 377 ABs with Indianapolis last season, Gonzales had 27 doubles. Already in 2024, Gonzales had 14, showing a willingness to hit the long ball but also spray the ball to all parts of the field, something the Pirates saw he had the ability to do when they drafted him in the first round out of New Mexico State.

It is early in the season, but Gonzales is on pace to crush all of his minor league career highs and should be a candidate at some point for a call-up.

Who’s Down?

Henry Davis

As I mentioned with Connor Joe being on the up part of this piece, it is hard to start the down part without former first overall pick Henry Davis.

Davis started the 2024 campaign as the team’s starting catcher, and all off-season we heard about his defensive shortcomings, that to be quite honest just flat out don’t exist as much as you might think they do, but most of his struggles have come at the plate so far.

Before being optioned to AAA recently, Davis had a .486 OPS in 68 ABs for the Pirates, and in his last seven games with the team, his slugging was a .125, so the time for him to go back down to Indianapolis was just a matter of time, especially as the team waited for Yasmani Grandal to be healthy enough to come up.

For Davis, I think the option was the right decision, mainly so he can prove to himself that he can hit the baseball, and hit it hard, again, while also learning how to push the ball to all parts of the field, something he brutally struggled with to begin 2024 and some parts of the last season.

Don’t be surprised if Davis is down in AAA for quite awhile, sometimes that second call-up is more difficult than the first because the Pirates won’t want to send him down again. Davis, and the team, know what he needs to work on, just give it time to play its course.

Edward Olivares

Edward Olivares was another off-season acquisition for the Pirates, and I was quite excited for his arrival, seeing as his xHR analytics suggested plus-power out of the outfielder.

We saw that on display early in the season, we all remember the pinch hit homer on Opening Day I’m sure, but he has slowed down considerably, even factoring in his grand slam that ended up winning the game for the Pirates on Monday versus the Angels.

Before yesterday, Olivares had not had an extra-base hit since April 9, and in his past 15 games, his slugging is a .240, a number you just can’t accept when you have a multitude of outfielding options are your disposal, including the previously mentioned Connor Joe.

Olivares is also not the strongest defender either, so the bat has to be there for him to stick in the lineup more often than not, and I would like to note to that point that he has been a DH in seven of his 23 games.

Olivares has the power potential to be a strong fourth outfield option for the Pirates, he just has to tap into it more, but if he continues to give sluggish numbers, he may end up being an option candidate at some point.

David Bednar

David Bednar is a household name in the city of Pittsburgh at this point, seeing as the Mars native is a two-time All-Star and one of the best closers in baseball when his stuff is at it’s best. One big problem though, his stuff hasn’t been at it’s best.

Bednar’s ERA is a 9.69 over 13.0 IP, a number that will surely come down with time, but a number that is still a massive concern. Factor in that Bednar’s Spring Training, or lack thereof, was short, and he was basically having his own version of a pre-season in the month of April.

All that aside though, Bednar’s struggles to begin 2024 are well documented, having blown three saves in nine opportunities while also allowing his highest batting average against(.268) since the COVID-19 shortened season. His HR/9 is also the highest its been since his debut season in 2019, so its clear Bednar just hasn’t been himself to at least begin the campaign.

Now, Bednar has only allowed three earned runs in his past four outing, but he has to continue to bring that ERA down while keeping the ball in the park, and thankfully the Pirates have had other strong bullpen options to make up for the star closer’s shortcomings to begin 2024.

Termarr Johnson

The second minor leaguer to be mentioned is Termarr Johnson, and right now, he’s on the wrong side of the list.

Johnson is the Pirates highest rated position prospect in the system, and me mentioning he’s down does not mean he is bust material, it just means he’s been slow out of the gate to begin 2024.

Johnson has been in Greensboro, a place notorious for making even the most average or below average minor league hitters look amazing, all 2024 thus far, but even he hasn’t seen the success he’d like to see at that level.

Through 80 ABs, Johnson has a .188 average, only one home run and his OPS is a .646, which doesn’t even sniff his .860 OPS number from 2023.

Again, it’s early in the campaign for Johnson and the likelihood that he receives a call-up this year is virtually zero, but it is important to analyze how he is doing seeing as he is one of the most highly touted prospects not only in the system, but in all of baseball, and right now, he can only go up from where he’s started to begin 2024.

Jack Suwinski

Jack Suwinski is apart of the young group the Pirates wanted to see take the next step in 2024, but 2024 hasn’t been kind to Suwinski just yet.

In 102 ABs, Suwinski has a .536 OPS and only two homers, so we haven’t seen the light tower power erupt from a winter slumber just yet for the power-hitting lefty.

Suwinski is your modern day three common outcomes player, he’s likely going to hit a home run, strikeout or walk in any given at-bat, and modern baseball is seeing more and more of these players everyday, and although a may seem like a death sentence for a player, it isn’t, i.e. Kyle Schwarber.

A big component to Suwinski’s struggles can be derived from consistent playing time as well, seeing as he was almost invisible to begin the campaign as the Pirates faced lefty after lefty, so getting Suwinski consistent playing time, which is sometimes hard to ask for when Derek Shelton tinkers with the lineup so often, could be the key to getting out of the early slump he’s been in to begin 2024.

April/First Week of May MVP – Jared Jones

Jared Jones was electric to begin his MLB career, and his impressive start wasn’t only on the radar of Pirates fans, but baseball fans everywhere.

Jones broke multiple Pirates franchise records in April while also joining some elite company in MLB history with the strikeout and innings totals he was able to rack up, and if his pace continues, which he has shown no reason that it won’t, he could be in the Rookie of the Year conversation in the National League alongside Yoshinobu Yamamota and Shoto Imanaga.

Jones has also set the bar quite high for other young pitchers coming up through the system, including Paul Skenes, who many expect to debut any day now, but Jones has given the Pirates another electric arm in the rotation, a rotation that has played very well to begin the season and will only get better as the season progression, and Jones will continue to be a large part of that.

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Better but Far From Fixed

5-6-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

It don’t feel fixed, but it feels like they’ve at least cast off a few weights and have a chance to tread water now. I’d hardly crow about a 2 game winning streak or winning a series against the hapless Rockies, this team is supposed to do that, but you have to start somewhere, and this was certainly a welcome step.

Let’s get after it.

1. Jared Jones – Freak, Fantastic, Historic

I’m starting to feel like the 90’s pop band Jesus Jones was a psychic allusion to the coming of the Pirates Pitching Messiah Jared Jones. Every outing he sets a new Rookie record, and almost just as often that record also happens to be applicable to all experience levels. He’s doing things that quite frankly, Paul Skenes will struggle to live up to.

Just the other day, First Pirates pitcher in the team’s illustrious history to go 7 innings of shutout ball, 1 or fewer hits, 10K’s and zero walks. Think about that, in ALL of the Pirates history, never before.

He comps to players like Jacob DeGrom, and Spencer Strider but in many ways, he has even more perplexing stuff because he isn’t painting corners, unless he wants to, he’s producing whiffs at a record setting pace and he’s doing much of it in the heart of the strike zone.

Appreciate what you’re watching, and more than that, prepare yourself mentally to potentially have two guys capable of this kind of dominance in your rotation. It’s 100% rational to assume Paul Skenes might just not look quite this insane. He has that kind of stuff and talent, I’m not questioning that, but it speaks to how incredible Jared Jones has been.

7 Games, 41 innings, 12 Earned runs for an ERA of 2.63, 52 Strike outs, only 5 walks a WHIP of 0.780.

In my wildest dreams, I maybe, maybe thought Paul Skenes could put something like this together to start his career, but after having watched this with Jared, honestly, I think that’s a lot to ask, I’ll settle for Paul just having success, these are unfair expectations for anyone to reach for to start their career.

I know I’ve not been around as long as some of you, but I’ve never seen anything like this. Maybe Tim Wakefield when he came up with that Knuckler and juiced the Pirates forward, but honestly, it didn’t feel like this to me.

2. Henry a Bust?

Oh my, slow down. Look, the Pirates have handled Henry Davis progression in a way I’ll never understand. Meaning, they allowed their needs to overshadow what this kid was capable of. Even before his now notorious hand injuries that supposedly prevented him from catching last year the team wasn’t catching him every day. His bat exploded in the minors, just went ham.

Let me remind you why this kid got called up when he did.

Drafted in 2021 he skipped Bradenton all together playing 2 games in the FCL and 6 in Greensboro. .308 between the two levels, 1.195 OPS.

Hey, it was a hot start for an advanced college bat, playing against 18-20 year olds, he should have destroyed them right? He’s a 1:1 after all right?

2022, he has some hit by pitch injury concerns and bounces all over the place, in fact he played in 5 different teams if you count the Arizona Fall League. Amongst the 4 Pirates teams he played FCL, A, A+ and AA Altoona he only managed 59 games and 255 Plate appearances. Again, he caught, but that’s just not a lot of games. Still, he posted a .264 Average, with an .852 OPS. 10 homers made the trip too, a good sign but nothing to get too excited about.

Now onto 2023. Nobody expected him to debut in 2023 at the MLB level. He started the campaign in AA Altoona, hadn’t caught much, had really not gotten close on the number of at bats you want to see. I openly laughed at people who suggested it in the offseason. I openly stated it was “Obvious Endy Rodriguez was in front of him and would get the call first”.

I, and everyone else was wrong. Endy struggled at the AAA level, and Henry hit the hell out of the baseball.

41 games in Altoona, .284 Average, 10 homeruns, 1.015 OPS, I mean he was destroying the AA level. Even his BB/K 32/35 was pretty special for the level. He caught 30 of those games and played in the outfield 7 times. Endy hadn’t been called up yet, but Davis needed a bump.

Surely he’d slow down in AAA. Endy will still be first I kept saying, Davis simply hadn’t caught enough and we had a DH named Cutch remember? So Endy it’ll be.

Still wrong.

In Indianapolis, yeah, he kept chugging. The team had him catch 5 games and play the outfield 9 times. We had Endy catching, and the team needed to develop him, again, we and the team thought Endy would be first, and it was becoming clear, Henry was going to hit so the team feverishly started inventing a path.

AAA Indy, 14 games, 63 Plate appearances, 2 more homers, 13/13 BB/K, .375 Average, 1.120 OPS, and importantly an MLB team that couldn’t hit their way out of a wet paper bag at the time (sound familiar?).

Up he came.

He struggled at the MLB level especially in the field, at the plate in 62 games he posted a .213 Average, 32/25 BB/K, .653 OPS. 7 Homers too. Not great. Promising. Certainly not damning. I think it’s fair to say we wondered where the hell he’d play. Then Endy went down and next thing you know this kid who hadn’t fully figured out how to hit at this level is now preparing to start as the catcher every day.

Early season disaster. Offensively anyway.

This kid didn’t forget how to hit, he just had too much asked from him far too quickly. This is a good ball player, and he’ll be back with a vengeance. Remember the whole journey, rather than assume 23 games in 2024 turns him from that kid destroying the minors into a terrible pick. He’s just a talented kid with a super strange development path. This demotion might help normalize it a bit and help him recapture the player he knows he is. Once he starts squaring up balls again, it’ll all come flushing back to him and when he believes it again, then, you call him back up, wiser, stronger, less worried about being demoted because he lived through it once and more than anything, not feeling like he needs to be the team’s savior, they just got done telling you unless you hit you can’t even save yourself.

3. What is Development?

More apt, what is developmental success to you? from the moment I started doing this, I’ve heard just about everyone point to the development system as being the major issue with this club. Not just this year, but over the course of time.

I can see that, I mean how often do they hit on guys who weren’t number 1 picks? I mean forget they haven’t had a ton of those pan out for a minute, shouldn’t you luck into some guys picked lower? Other teams sure do.

Shouldn’t they have more wins on the international market? I mean they spend more than most teams legitimately, where is the fruit?

I’ll tell you when I don’t hear it, I don’t hear it brought up with a guy like Jared Jones who absolutely flew here through the system getting better year after year, stronger, better stuff, right out of high school in the 2nd round he shouldn’t be seen as a total surprise either. In fact Carmen Mlodzinski a Comp B pick arrived just as fast.

Is it impressive they brought in Alika Williams and he’s now a pretty productive glove first bench piece? Or do you give the Rays credit for him? If you do, they certainly don’t get credit for the arguable hardest part of the journey, the jump from AAA to MLB.

Mitch Keller was a long range project, did their poor development make it take that long, or did the patience of their development system afford him the opportunity to work through all of his issues?

Hunter Stratton, or David Bednar?

What is success? I can tell you their hit rate isn’t much worse than any other organization and it’s really too early to say Ben Cherington’s 1st round selections aren’t going to work out. We just talked about Davis, Gonzales looks like he’s pushing his way back into getting another look, Carmen Mlodzinski (comp B selection technically a number 1) will be back up and is really a victim of having options right now. Skenes will be here and you could argue he simply didn’t need developed. Termarr was a high school kid and in high A he’s off to a slow start but man you aren’t scraping him off your plate yet.

We’ve already seen nice progression from a bunch of other picks like Jack Brannigan, Solometo, Chandler, Barco, White, Jebb, and even some international guys like Shalin Polanco and Yordanny De Los Santos have looked like there are some signs.

Point is, I’m not sure we have what we need to say THIS development system, almost entirely reimagined under Cherington and not really started until 2021 due to COVID is good or bad.

Much of what we’ve seen try to crack the bigs like Ji Hwan Bae, Liover Peguero, Quinn Priester types, well, they still have a chance to make it.

The flameouts like Travis Swaggerty, Will Craig, Cole Tucker, Kevin Newman types, are we blaming this regime for them? I’m not, none of them have done a blessed thing since.

Overall, yes, development has been a problem. Early on in this regime I’d say what we’ve seen is they have an issue smoothly transitioning AAA players to MLB, but even that man, Jones, Carmen, Jack to a degree, Cruz, Hayes, they’ve had some successes and I for one am not going to diagnose a disease without seeing if they have one.

It’s very likely they still stink at it, but I can’t be there until I start being able to look at Cherington’s picks and signings, fully expect they should be here at this point and can overtly call them a failed prospect. Nick Gonzales being his first pick will always be the first data point here, bluntly, this is the year he should be here contributing or we start to think about him never making it. He and Liover Peguero represent the first two big injections of high end talent brought in here by this regime, and they are where we’ll start to be able to tell the story of their development system too.

Lastly, when you look at a prospect’s age you must factor in all of it. For instance, Nick Gonzales is almost 25 years old, will be this month. When you draft a college bat, you already have to think I have to get this kid through this system relatively quickly. You want their prime years, and those traditionally start in the mid 20’s.

Again, lost the first year to COVID. He reached the Bigs for the first time in his 3rd year of development and he’ll be back in his 4th.

Yes, he’s 25 and that’s old for a AAA prospect, but he’s not old developmentally speaking. Now that isn’t ideal, you want it to go quicker. Somewhere between Henry Davis and Nick Gonzales in an ideal world. But to act like he’s a bust because he’s 25, well, sheesh, just don’t draft College guys, they aren’t for you. For perspective, Liover Peguero is 23 and competing in his 8th season of professional ball as he started at 17. There’s more than meets the eye when it comes to age.

4. It’s Always About More than One Hitter, but…

Oneil Cruz isn’t single handedly responsible for the Pirates offensive woes this season, in fact, even as he’s scuffled he’s still leading the club in homeruns, is 3rd in RBI and has finally gotten his OPS to start creeping back up toward .700. Not what you want, but seeing as most of us ignored he was missing an entire year and expected him to jump right back to where he was, maybe it should be what we expected.

He’s the straw that stirs this drink though. If he’s not going for a stretch, even if the offense holds their own for a few games, as soon as the league sees he’s slumping, they’ll approach the entire lineup in a different way. Handle their bullpen deployment differently and focus on taking away another player in the lineup instead.

He wears it so visually on his face and body language when he doesn’t feel right. Think about watching him hit, you know there are times where you feel he looks intimidating, ready to do damage, ready to kill a mistake, ready to make a good pitch look like it wasn’t. A guy you pitch around every chance you get and hope he doesn’t feel like slapping an outside fastball 300 feet down the left field line.

Then there are times he looks defeated. Confused by the strike zone, almost apathetic that he isn’t seeing this guy and he puts up little resistance. You almost see it in his countenance.

The more he plays this year, the more he’ll lock in and even if he takes all year getting back to where he wants to be, he’ll wield this team’s most important standalone bat the entire journey.

More than any other player his performance effects the lineup around him. A lesson we should have learned last year when he was ripped away from this offense.

5. Ten Days in May

After this series with the Angels the Pirates go on a 10 day stretch against the Cubs, Brewers and back to the Cubs. The Cubs and Brewers have played tug-o-war with the division lead most of the season and the Pirates already split their one and only division series this year, a four game set with the Brewers at PNC Park.

It’s hard to believe the way the Pirates have played the past few weeks, but this division didn’t exactly run away from them and none of these teams are what they’ll be later in the year. They’ll all make moves at the deadline and it’s likely they’ll all be looking to add. In fact, all three have prospects that will leave them little choice but to add and make some moves.

That won’t make these early season contests matter any less. Last year from June 13th through June 21st the Pirates played 9 games against the Cubs, Brewers and back to the Cubs and lost all 9. The team would show flashes of life after that point, but it was a slap in the face that this team simply didn’t belong in the competition and all 3 of these teams have returned a whole hell of a lot of what those teams were made up of.

This Angels series is the Pirates last chance to feel firmly on the horse and ready to run the race before this tough stretch, and losing more than they win will give us quite the picture of where they belong in this division in 2024.

Series Preview: Angels (12-22) at Pirates (16-19)

5-6-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

I was very much so looking forward to seeing Mike Trout play in person for the first time, but alas, the generational talent is on the shelf and will miss the series in Pittsburgh. The Pirates are on a 3-7 stretch, but have won two straight and took the series from the Rockies. The Angels are 2-8 in their last 10, just got dealt a blow losing their only real reason for winning in Trout.

The Angels enter this series carrying a staff ERA of 4.90 good for 27th in baseball, while the Pirates rank 10th with 3.64. The Angels have been better offensively, but for perspective, they just lost the guy who hit 10 of their 36 homeruns, so the Pirates 26 isn’t as far behind on paper as it might seem.

This is a series the Pirates absolutely should win, despite how they’ve played, no matter how long a cold stretch they’ve been on, if the Pirates want to be in that middle class in baseball that reaches .500 and competes for a ticket to the dance it’s a series they must win.

5-6
Angels – Tyler Anderson (L) – 2-3, 36.1 IP, 2.23 ERA, 27 Ks/15 walks, 1.07 WHIP
Pirates – Mitch Keller (R) – 2-3, 40 IP, 5.18 ERA, 39 Ks/15 walks, 1.48 WHIP

5-7
Angels – Patrick Sandoval (L) – 1-5, 32 IP, 5.91 ERA, 38 Ks/163 walks, 1.69 WHIP
Pirates – Quinn Priester (R) – 0-2, 16.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 11 Ks/6 walks, 1.29 WHIP

5/8
Angels – Jose Soriano (R) – 1-4, 28.2 IP, 3.77 ERA, 26 Ks/15 walks, 1.29 WHIP
Pirates – Martin Perez (L) 1-2, 40 IP, 3.15 ERA, 31 Ks/13 walks, 1.38 WHIP

Angels:
Nolan Schanuel, the 22 year old Angels 2023 first round selection was a bit of a surprise to already be here, but after a slow start, he’s really come on. In his last 15 games he’s slashing .339/.383/.464 with a couple homers. The kid doesn’t strike out much with only 21 total on the season and in his past 15 games and 56 at bats he’s only K’d 8 times. Quite the story, looking forward to getting eyes on him.

Pirates:
It’s Connor Joe ’til it ain’t. The most remarkable thing about Connor is how damn consistent he’s been all season long, even while the sky was falling all around him offensively, Joe just keeps kicking. Let’s look at him this way. His past 30 .290/.372/.480, past 15 .289/.347/.489, past 7 .292/.346/.458, I mean, split his performance up however you like, he’s been incredibly steady and steady rarely equates to extremely good, but Connor is for sure pulling it off.

Angels:
Oh, how about Brandon Drury, a guy many Pirates fans thought they should pursue in the offseason, in his last 15 he’s slashed .160/.204/.240 and it’s gotten even worse in his last 7, .077/.107/.077. He probably shouldn’t be a starter, but he’s playing like one, so he must be held to that standard. Hey, we’ve been there, like yesterday actually right?

Pirates:
There are plenty of candidates, but I’ll go with Edward Olivares. After contributing early and providing some power, Olivares has been arguably the worst hitter in the Pirates lineup, no, really. Look at his last 15, .160/.236/.280. What? That’s not bad enough? Something something Rowdy?? OK, here’s his past 7 putrid efforts .087/.192/.087. Plenty of time to hate Rowdy, spread the, um… love.

Key Injuries

I mean, Mike Trout. Mic Drop. He’s out, we’re sad.

The Pirates are looking for rest and second opinions on Ryan Borucki and Marco Gonzales. Too early to tell if we’re going to see either pitcher return this season, too early to scratch them from the team’s plans.

What To Watch

The Angels pitching is abysmal, which I’ll fully admit doesn’t always add up to runs for our swashbuckling heroes of the North Shore, but their bullpen and rotation both are vulnerable to even a halfway competent attack. I will say, the Angels tossing two lefties at the Pirates is helping them out, but it also might interfere with Oneil Cruz, Jack Suwinski and Rowdy Tellez who are desperately trying to, some more successful than others, bust out of this thing.

Tyler Anderson in particular has all the tools to shut down this team. His mix is effective against both sides of the plate and he knows how to paint the corners which plays into all the Pirates worst impulses to be overly patient.

It’ll also be interesting to see Jose Soriano. The Pirates selected him in the Rule 5 draft years ago as he was recovering form Tommy John, a bet on a big talent, but he eventually became a 40-man casualty and the Angels reacquired him. He does have great stuff, it just hasn’t translated yet. Still, it’ll be cool to see some of what the Pirates hoped they might be stealing way back when.

Is Paul Skenes time in AAA Indianapolis coming to a close?

5-5-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN

Since being drafted on July 9, 2023 number one overall, Paul Skenes’ expectations were heightened immediately, seeing as he was, and still is, considered the best pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg was drafted number one overall in 2009 by the Washington Nationals.

Much like Strasburg, the immediate expectations usually translate to coming up to the big leagues much quicker than normal prospects would, and we have already seen a young, top arm in the system have considerable success at the MLB level for the Pirates already in Jared Jones, who has set not only Pirates franchise records for pitching prowess, but also MLB ones to start a career.

Skenes made another start on Sunday versus the Buffalo Bisons, having uncharacteristic struggles but still flashing brilliance, as he threw 4.1 innings while surrendering two earned runs, his season high, while fanning four and walking two on 66 pitches.

Although his start Sunday would be considered his worst to date, in his seven starts including Sunday, Skenes sports a 0.99 ERA over 27.1 innings with 45 strikeouts, so he’s done just about everything you could ask out of him in Indianapolis.

A big focus has also been put on his secondary pitches, but he’s done well with them in his time in the minors while still flashing with his elite fastball velocity. His slider and splinker have looked impressive at times but still aren’t on the level of his fastball just yet, but they are still consistent pitches that get the job done for Skenes.

Going back to Strasburg for a moment, he threw 122.1 IP in his minor league career while obviously looking very impressive along the way, tossing a 1.99 ERA in 27 starts with 152 strikeouts and a 0.83 WHIP, but Strasburg wouldn’t debut until June 8, 2010, but consider now that times are very different in how prospects are handled.

For example, the Texas Rangers called up Wyatt Langford, who was selected fourth overall in last year’s draft, right away to begin this season and he has had a good start to the season for the Rangers, including his first MLB home run being an inside-the-park homer, despite leaving the game early on Saturday with right hamstring tightness.

The Pirates are also no strangers to calling up top prospects quickly, seeing as Henry Davis debuted very quickly and became one of the fastest number one selections to debut in MLB history.

For Skenes, it’s been about checking boxes to begin 2024. How would he adapt to a five-day pitching schedule? Are his secondary pitches as advanced as his fastball? These are among the many questions that Skenes entered 2024 with, but to not bury the lede here at all, he’s answered all of them with flying colors.

Now I don’t have any source that is telling me the Pirates will be calling him up soon, but I have said on my podcast multiple times, as has Gary Morgan and many other writers and podcasters, that Skenes reaching six innings of work would be the alarm that he’s close, and he’s done that now, so its time to consider him coming up, but it isn’t all that easy either.

Yes, Skenes is considered generational, but at this point in time, who do the Pirates take out of the rotation? The obvious no’s are Mitch Keller, Martin Perez and Jared Jones, who have all been impressive to begin the 2024 campaign, which leaves Quinn Priester and Bailey Falter – who struggled a bit in today’s outing but still managed 5.1 innings allowing 3 runs off 6 hits with 2 walks and 3 strikeouts. Regardless, both of these two have performed at or above expectations placed on them as back-end rotation pieces.

That also leaves out the injured Marco Gonzales, who will eventually return off the IL down the line (per Cherington), so what do you do to get Skenes up? The solution isn’t simple whatsoever, and the fact that it isn’t simple is a very good thing for this club.

Personally, moving Priester out of the rotation would be quite the gut punch for the former first round selection, so that leaves only Falter to be the “casualty”, with a bullpen move being the most likely option. You then consider who you send down in that scenario and the call-up gets even more complicated, but these are moves teams have to make to get top prospects on their rosters eventually.

Everyone, including myself, would pick Skenes to be in the rotation over Falter, hell, we were all doing that before the season began. Now, Skenes is ready, he’s been ready, but the Pirates have a plan for him, likely an innings limit, much like they have with Jones, that we can theorize on but truthfully don’t know the answer to, and his time for a call-up is much closer than many of you may think, maybe even this week, and when he does come up, the Pirates will have a potentially lethal quartet of Keller, Perez, Jones and Skenes to lead the way for the starting rotation.

While Jones has set the bar quite high for Skenes and the other pitching prospects in the minor league system, Skenes will be ready for the challenges MLB will bring forth to him, and again, expect a call-up soon and be ready for what the Pirates acquired in the 2024 MLB Draft, a generational pitching prospect.

Steel City Pirates – Know Your Enemies

5-4-24 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on X

At the end of April this division still is kind of up in the air. There is some separation into
tiers taking place, but they are not rock solid yet.
Tier 1
Milwaukee & Chicago
Tier 2
Cincinnati
Tier 3
St. Louis & Pittsburgh
Just one month into the season is no time to make full season proclamations and we
should all expect to see things shuffle in May-July. A month-long trend is usually not
statistically significant enough to move any needle too much, but there are indicators to
pick up on and monitor.
Without further adieu, let’s check in on the Enemies.

National League Central Standings
WinLoss
Milwaukee Brewers2011
Chicago Cubs1914
Cincinnati Reds1616
St. Louis Cardinals1517
Pittsburgh Pirates1419

Milwaukee Brewers

Lineup

Willy Adames – Adames had an awesome April. Top 4 in the NL in fWAR, 6 homers, 21 RBI, 4
steals, & a triple slash of .278/.373/.496. Many believe Adames to be a trade candidate given
his contract status, but right now he is a key cog for this lineup.
William Contreras – Contreras the Younger was on a similar path to Adames. Top 5 in the NL
in fWAR, 5 homers, 28 runs scored, 25 RBI, & a triple slash of .345/.420/.538. He just may be
the best young catcher in baseball as of April 2024.
Brice Turang – After a disappointing 2023, Turang has burst on the scene in 2024. Doing his
best Nico Hoerner impersonation, Turang has 2 homers, 14 steals, & a triple slash of
.309/.370/.433. He looks to be taking hold of a starting role in MIL and won’t let go any time
soon.
Jackson Chourio – The young phenom has struggled to adjust some to Major League pitching,
which is totally in line with even the best prospects. He is struggling with K% early but his leash will be long and his minor league development also featured this same needed adjustment.
Tyler Black – Another top prospect. Debuted in the waning days of April, not much to look at
yet, but he appears to be another fun piece for the Crew to develop.

Pitching

Freddy Peralta – Freddy came out slinging like the team ace in April. 33.2 IP, 3 wins, 45/9
K/BB, 3.21 ERA, & a 0.86 WHIP. Not much to see here, just an ace being an ace.
DL Hall – The main piece in the Corbin Burnes deal, Hall struggled mightily in April. He made
four miserable starts and is currently on the IL with a knee sprain. He will get plenty of chances since he was in their big trade, but it has been disgusting so far.
Joel Payamps/Trevor Megill – Payamps & Megill are among the replacements for the injured
Devin Williams. Both have performed well and are premium back-end bullpen pieces.
Colin Rea/Joe Ross/Bryse Wilson – All playing above replacement ball in starting roles. Not
particularly notable other than keeping the Crew in games. And that is all you can ask of them.
Tobias Myers – Made his Major League debut and while the results have been mixed, he is
intriguing on the back of a 23/2.6 K/BB% & soliciting chases at a high 37.8%. He might not be a guy, but there are encouraging signs here. One to watch.

Minor League Check In

Yujanyer Herrera – This one is a gut call for me. Typically lower level minor league pitching is
not something to overreact to, but watching Herrera (and his performance) gives me the
impression that he could be special. He is steamrolling A/A+ ball. Performance markers that jump out are: 45.2/8.2 K/BB%, 1.80 ERA, 1.32 FIP, .80 WHIP, 22.5 swinging strike rate, 52.9%
ground ball rate. I don’t want to jump the gun on it, but it has looked so, so good.
Tyler Woessner – Woessner just got called up to AAA and got walloped on 5/2, but his AA
returns were strong; 34.5/4.8 K/BB%, 45.7 ground ball rate, 2.66 ERA, & a 1.18 WHIP. Since he
could be on track to debut this season, he is worth monitoring.
Mike Boeve – Drafted 15th overall in round 2 of the 2023 draft, Boeve is a pure hitter. He has
clubbed his way to AA early in 2024 & while the power hasn’t really shown up yet the results are undeniable. On the season he is hitting; .466/.538/.614, a 1.153 OPS, .522 wOBA, & a 228
wRC+. How he handles the upper minors will tell a lot, but he looks kind of like Luis Arraez and a 2023 draft steal.
Yophery Rodriguez – Just need to mention Rodriguez here because he is the latest young
player the Brewers brass has been aggressive with by jumping him from the DSL straight to A
ball as a 18 year old. He is more than holding his own early and might be their next Jackson
Chourio.

Chicago Cubs

Lineup

Cody Bellinger – Bellinger got off to a decent enough start production wise, popping 5 homers & driving in17 during the opening month. All in all a good opening month considering the BABIP is well below career norms for Belli. He is currently on the shelf for an unclear duration with fractured ribs.
Nico Hoerner – After a nightmare first week or two Hoerner finished with a decent month. His wRC+ crept up to 99 and will likely get it going with speed & on base skills trending that way as April wound down.
Christopher Morel – The full Morel experience showed up in April. Wildly hot stretches
combined with very cold stretches. It must be noted that he is running quite low BABIP vs his
career norm, so the productive stretches could see his surface lines change quickly. The
biggest thing with Morel, as always, is the K issues. So far his 10/20.8 K/BB% and a drastic,
10%, reduction in whiff % is looking golden. I expect big summer months if this holds.
Michael Busch – Free Michael Busch! Well, he is free from the LA minor league system now
and it has been as advertised. He looks the part of a modest batting average, higher OBP
slugger (6 homers in April). His K’s have ticked up some early, but for all intents and purposes,
he is a rookie still. Early returns look like a good acquisition for Chicago.
Dansby Swanson – Swanson just keeps on being a good ball player. The bat is lagging a little
early, but his well rounded play keeps him a net positive. He is not flashy with the bat, but the
glove is slick & doesn’t hurt the Cubs in any facet of the game. A true ballplayer.
Seiya Suzuki – Suzuki got in 15 games before hitting the IL. He was off to a nice start with a
151 wRC+ & .386 wOBA and slashing .305/.368/.525. He is rehabbing currently and should
return in May.
Mike Tauchmann – Had a really great April. Led the team and was 5th in all of baseball with a
176 wRC+ (min 50 PAs). He is getting a full time shot right now & that might change with
Suzuki’s return & the Crow-Armstrong call up. But can’t take his stellar April away from him.
Pitching
Justin Steele – The Cubs ace made one start and exited after with a hamstring injury after 4.2
IP. He looked sharp in his short outing vs TEX, but not much to glean with his April. Certainly
looked legit though. He is set to return in early May.
Hayden Wesneski – A trendy breakout pick in 2023, Wesneski got back in the rotation for the
end of April with the injury to Jordan Wicks. Very small sample yet, but Wesneski’s underlying
numbers look encouraging. His emergence as a Major League quality arm could be a big
development for the Cubs.
Jordan Wicks – Wicks hit the IL with a forearm injury, which is never a good sign. Prior to this
he had been showing that he was not just a command pitcher anymore. He had flashed some improved stuff adding more K potential to his game evidenced by his K% jump from 16.3% to 25.9%. Arm injuries are never good, so time will tell on how much development we see in 2024.
Shota Imanaga – Imanga looks like the real deal so far. His April featured a 0.78 ERA, 0.75
WHIP, & a 1.2 fWAR. A Steele/Imanaga top of the rotation should prove to be formidable.
Ben Brown – Brown has filled in admirably across 4 starts and 8 total appearances. Command was his MilB bugaboo & while it is still on the high side in the Majors, his debut has gone pretty well. His role might fluctuate between SP/RP, but he appears to be a Major League quality arm for the time being.

Minor League Check In

Moises Ballesteros – Just 20 years old and working over AA to the tune of a .430 wOBA, 173
wRC+, 13.6/13.6 K/BB%. We highlighted Ballesteros several times last year and he is firmly
establishing himself as a near elite prospect early in 2024.
Owen Cassie – Known for his big boy power, Cassie carried a strong Spring into the regular
season. His power isn’t flashing yet, but he has made important gains in his BB% and holding a sub-30% K rate.
Jefferson Rojas – Rojas looks to be on track to be an early breakout prospect for 2024. Just 19
years old and producing well at A+. He will be someone I will monitor closely as the season
goes on.
Cade Horton – One of the top pitching prospects in baseball. Having a strong start in AA so far.

Cincinnati Reds

Lineup

Elly De La Cruz -Elly De La Cruz has arrived. ELDC posted a historic 8 homer/18 steal month
of April. Elite exit velocities, elite athleticism, his only real warts are below average defense &
some K concerns. But if Elly K’s 30% of the time and the other 70% of the output is crazy, who cares?
Spencer Steer – Steer is a good ball player. Not a spectacular April, but solid across the board
on offense. He has no real defensive home, but the bat will keep him on the field.
Will Benson – Lots of Ks for Benson, but the output was OK with a 100 wRC+ and .320 wOBA. The potential is there for a pretty special prime if the K% ever gets tamed.
Jake Fraley/Tyler Stephenson/Jonathan India – Stephenson has been a solid but
unspectacular contributor. Fraley has been disappointing, but still a net positive for the Reds.
India is much the same.
Christian Encarnacion-Strand – CES is struggling early. Poor offense, poor defense. Hitting
the ball hard, but not much to show for it. I suspect he will get it going as the weather turns.
Pitching
Hunter Greene – Greene might be taking a step forward. He is having a strong start with a 3.63 ERA, 2.93 FIP, 29.2/8.3 K/BB%, and a 1.1 fWAR. As always, Greene is prone to blow ups
occasionally. So, if he can manage to avoid them more often in 2024, it will be a career year.
Graham Ashcraft/Nick Martinez – Both Ashcraft and Martinez have been adept at keeping the
Reds in games. At times, each has flashed above average performance. Overall it has been a
bit uneven for the month, though.
Nick Lodolo – Lodolo looks like a guy. Across 24.1 IP he has a 1.88 ERA, 2.22 FIP, 33/6.4
K/BB%, and a 0.8 fWAR. His biggest hurdles will be staying healthy & his home park. He looks
exciting early.
Andrew Abbott – Abbott has been OK! Solid overall, not getting the K numbers he did upon
debuting in 2023, but he is avoiding hard contact much better so far. While the arsenal plays a lot less flashy without the Ks, he might just be a better pitcher in this form.
Alexis Diaz/Fernado Cruz – The big two in the bullpen both have sort of ugly surface numbers due to bouts of wildness. But the underlying stuff is still strong. Surface stats can swing wildly in such small sample sizes for RPs. Expect them to sort out over the months.

Minor League Check In

Cam Collier – The number 18 overall pick in the 2022 draft, Collier is finding his stride in his age 19 season. Collier has bashed 7 homers and driven in 25 on the strength of a .408 wOBA/144 wRC+.
Sal Stewart – Stewart is one of the more underrated prospects in baseball. He has a
tremendous plate approach with a 17/19.1 K/BB% and while the production isn’t huge it is very
solid with a .386 wOBA & 131 wRC+ in A+. At just 20 years old the projection is tantalizing for
his bat, especially with his strong plate discipline foundation to build upon.
Jay Allen II – He’s got a smaller sample size due to a late start, but Allen looks like a hoss so
far. Drafted 30th overall in 2021 Allen has struggled in the minors. His early 2024 performance has him looking like a new man though. With 5 homers, 5 steals, a .538 wOBA, and a 226 wRC+ in 58 PAs something appears to have clicked. Most importantly his 15.5/15.5 K/BB% and 8.5% swinging strike rate are enormous early improvements.
There is a long way to go to prove it can be sustained, but with his draft pedigree Allen II could be the biggest prospect breakout of the early season.
Ricardo Cabera/Alfredo Duno – Two extremely young & exciting prospects. Bookmark their
names to check on as the season wears on. Nice early returns in A ball for a 19 & 18 year old.

St. Louis Cardinals

Lineup

WIlson Contreras – Contreras the Elder is still a productive hitter. Much like Goldy, he is
getting eaten up by fastballs early. But overall his production has remained quality. His
defensive metrics are also above his career norms early boosting his overall fWAR output.
Ivan Herrera – Cardinals have a bit of a predicament on their hands. Herrera is a very good
prospect and he needs everyday PAs. But with Conteras blocking him at C and a plethora of
other poor defensive players, DH isn’t always an option either. The surface stats are not all that pretty, but the underlying one’s are looking strong: 91.6/112.4 AV/MAX EVs, .367 xwOBA, 45.7 Hard Hit Rate%. He needs to be in the lineup regularly.
Paul Goldschmidt – It is early and Goldy is a notoriously slow starter, but things are not looking good early. He has been eaten up by fastballs to start the season. The underlying metrics look OK, so I think he isn’t totally washed yet, but things might be trending that way.
Nolan Gorman – Gorman has been bad. Whiff % up, Chase % up, contact quality down, it has
been a tough start. Young players all need to adjust and Gorman is no different, but there is no way to sugar coat it.
Nolan Arenado – Arenado has a 0.7 fWAR in April, but the majority of his value is coming from his defense. He sort of looks like a lesser version of 2023. This may be the season where his overperformance of underlying numbers starts to show in the surface stats.
Alec Burleson – Burleson is another tough case. He is nearly a non-viable defender anywhere
but can hit the ball with a 92.1 average EV, .302 xBA, .360 xwOBA, & a 49.1% Hard Hit rate. He probably needs to get PAs, but where?
Jordan Walker – A rotten start to the season has Walker back in AAA (much like 2023). For this team to be their best in the long run, Walker has to figure it out.

Pitching

Sonny Gray – Sonny Gray is a good pitcher. He comes to St. Louis completely as advertised.
23.1 IP, 3-1 record, 1.16 ERA, 1.47 FIP, 0.94 WHP, 36/4.5 K/BB%, and a 1.0 fWAR.
Not much else to say. He might be the best pitcher in the NL Central.
Ryan Helsley – The best relief pitcher in the NL after April 2024. With a 2-2 record, 10 saves,
1.69 ERA, 1.02 FIP, 0.94 WHIP, and a 0.7 fWAR Helsley has been a nightmare for opponents.
JoJo Romero/Andrew Kittredge– These two have been absolute nails in the set-up roles for
St. Louis. Romero, Kittredge, and Helsley are on the shortlist for best bullpen back end in the
League.
Lance Lynn/Kyle Gibson/Steven Matz/Miles Mikolas – I will officially say that all of these guys
are worse than I thought they would be coming into 2024. Not much more analysis than this.
They are vets & will likely provide SOME value going forward, but it is not looking great early.

Minor League Check In

Tink Hence – Tink is back with a vengeance early in 2024. He is roughing up AA early and
back on track to be considered among the best pitching prospects in the game.
Quinn Mathews – A 4th round pick out of Stanford in 2023, Mathews has made a big velocity
jump early in 2024. He is pitching out of his mind in A ball. Just look at these numbers: 18 IP, 2-0 record, 0.50 ERA, 1.81 FIP, 0.89 WHIP, 53.5/12.7 K/BB%, and a 72.7% groundball rate.
He needs to be challenged at a higher level ASAP. He is on the older side for the FSL & the
league uses a slightly wider strike zone. If he maintains this in A+/AA, the sky’s the limit.
Nathan Church – Church is having a really nice opening to 2024. Sporting an 8.9/6.9 BB/K%,
.397 wOBA, & a 139 wRC+. To be honest, he has never been on my radar before, but this is a
fun AA debut. I will be following going forward.
Chase Davis – Chase Davis was a favorite draft prospect of mine in 2023. His time in the MiLB has been mostly lackluster to date. His production is OK, but without the K% coming down (currently 33.3%), his chances of becoming an everyday player will be slim.

Well, that is about as brief as I could try to be in laying out what I have observed across
the NL Central. When we reconvene for the May Edition of KYE things could be
dramatically different. Most of these changes come in our Minor League Check Ins, but
there will almost certainly be some at the Major League level too. I can’t wait to get back
into it again for you all!

Series Preview: Rockies (7-24) at Pirates (14-18)

5-3-24 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN

After a west coast road trip that saw the struggling Pittsburgh Pirates drop five of six to the San Francisco Giants and Oakland Athletics, the Pirates return home to PNC for their longest home stand so far this season, beginning with the Colorado Rockies.

As mentioned, the Pirates enter this series losers of four consecutive games and five of their last games, but their struggles offensively date back to a few weeks ago, as since April 14, they have scored 4+ runs in a game just three times, so something has to give for the offense eventually.

Meanwhile, the pitching staff, particularly starting pitching, has played quite well for the Pirates, as the entire staff ranks 13th in ERA at 3.80.

The Colorado Rockies haven’t had any success to begin 2024, entering this series without a series victory on the season and coming off the wrong side of a sweep against the Miami Marlins, whom the Pirates swept to begin the year.

The offense hasn’t been all that bad, as the Rockies are hitting for a combined slash line of .238/.304/.366/.670, but as history suggests, the pitching has been their Achilles heel to begin to the season.

The Rockies pitching staff currently ranks last in baseball in WHIP with a 1.61 while also ranking last in batting average against with a .292 clip, so for the Pirates offense, this is as good an opportunity as they’ll get to right the ship offensively.

You have two teams entering this series struggling and looking to turn their fortunes for the better in a matchup of below-.500 teams, let’s see who can right the ship.

05/03
Pirates – Martin Perez(LHP) – 1-1, 34.2 IP, 2.86 ERA, 27 Ks/13 walks, 1.36 WHIP
Rockies –Cal Quantrill(RHP) – 0-3, 32.0 IP, 5.34 ERA, 17 Ks/14 walks, 1.50 WHIP

05/04
Pirates – Jared Jones(RHP)– 2-3, 34.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 43 Ks/5 walks, 0.91 WHIP
Rockies– Austin Gomber(LHP) – 0-2, 32.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 22 Ks/11 walks, 1.34 WHIP

05/05
Pirates – Bailey Falter(LHP) – 2-2, 32.0 IP, 4.22 ERA, 23 Ks/ 7 walks, 0.94 WHIP
Rockies– Ryan Feltner(RHP) – 1-2, 33.1 ip, 5.13 ERA, 33 Ks/10 walks, 1.47 WHIP

Rockies:
Elehuris Montero – Although he enters the series with a measly .567 OPS, Elehuris Montero has picked things up as of late for the Rockies, hitting 9-for-39 in his last ten games with two homers to boot, so expect Montero to be good complimentary bat alongside Ryan McMahon and former Pirate Elias Diaz.

Pirates:
Martin Perez – Martin Perez will begin the series on the mound for the Pirates in this series and he’s been everything the Pirates would have hoped for in one of their marquee free agent signings, as he is leading the team thus far in ERA at 2.86 and has only allowed more than three runs in one start this year, so his strong start should continue against a struggling Rockies squad.

Rockies:
Charlie Blackmon – Charlie Blackmon is a veteran presence for the Rockies, but the outfielder has come out of the gate in 2024 ice cold, hitting .217 with an OPS on .617 and only one homer thus far, well below his career averages. He has a .192 slugging in his last seven games and with two lefties on the mound for the Pirates, his fortunes may not get much better as he is currently hitting .227 versus lefties.

Pirates:
The entire offense – As mentioned earlier, the Pirates have only scores four runs or more in a game since April 14 three times, and their lackluster play over the west coast trip led to the Pirates lost five of six games while scoring four runs or less in each contest. The Pirates offense has also slid down to 22nd in baseball in batting average, so things have to change offensively if the Pirates want back into the win column.

Key Injuries

Rockies:

10-day IL: OF Nolan Jones, OF/1B Kris Bryant

15-day IL: P Kyle Freeland

60-day IL: P Lucas Gilbreath, P Daniel Bard, P German Marquez, P Antonio Senzatela

Pirates:
10-day IL: C Jason Delay, C Yasmani Grandal

15-day IL: P Marco Gonzales, P Ryan Borucki

60-day IL: C Endy Rodriguez, P Dauri Moreta, P Johan Oviedo

Who To Watch

Watch the Pirates offense closely in this series. The offense is well overdue and ready for some sort of breaking out party out of the funk they have been in recently, and against the statistically worst pitching staff in all of baseball, there is no better shot for the Pirates offense to get back on track than against the Colorado Rockies. With the way the pitching staff has performed, and they should perform well in this series, if the offense shows up for four or five runs, maybe more, then a series win and maybe a sweep could welcome the Pirates back to winning baseball.

RISPy Business

5-2-24 – By Josh Booth – @bridge2buctober on X

YOU HAVE PROBABLY BEEN TO KENNYWOOD

You have more than likely been on a roller coaster. For the rest of you, you’ve at least heard of them.

When I was a kid, we spent a day every year at either Geauga Lake or America’s Roller Coast, Cedar Point. Cedar Point, although further away, was always the top, for me. I loved the Raptor.

I’m sure you’ve also heard things that aren’t roller coasters referred to as being a roller coaster. A roller coaster of a season or a game probably comes to mind. While baseball usually provides those types of idioms, it also borrows some.

The 2024 season has been a roller coaster so far. — Before you stop reading and call me crazy… I said SO FAR.

If you’ve been to Kennywood, I suppose you’ve been on the Phantom’s Revenge. I remember riding it 2 or 3 times on my last visit there. When you get buckled into Phantom’s Revenge, the first thing that happens when the ride begins is you go up a hill. The second thing that happens is going right back down the hill.

That’s it. That’s how far we are into the 2024 season, and it’s been exactly that. The Pirates started off 11-5 before spiraling down to where they are right now.

HERE I AM, TASKED WITH LOOKING AT TRENDS

On April 14th, I was going to look at the differences between 2023 April and 2024 April to see if I could figure out what the trend says about sustainability. I was looking into what Jared Jones was doing, only to read a number of great articles all about what Jared Jones was doing. Then looking at what happened during a 6-game losing streak. Then…. You get the point.

Everything kept changing because the month took a turn we didn’t really expect.

What we all know about is the eye test. And it’s telling us this offense is horrible.

Spoiler alert: the results back that up.

I decided to look at team-wide trends instead of focusing on certain players. Mostly because I think this is a team-wide problem.

The data in this study was pulled prior to April 30th. So, this will include statistics from March 28th through April 29th.

So, what glaringly obvious change was made between the first 16 games (11-5) and the following 14 (3-11)? That’s exactly what I set out to find.

WHAT CHANGED?

Let’s start with something obvious: They have scored 58 less runs in only 2 less games. That alone will mean that there are way less plate appearances in those 14 games. More than you would think 2 games would account for. In the first 16 games, they averaged 42 PA. In the next 14, just 35.6 PA. With that said… you’re going to see quite a few less hits when you’re talking about a difference of 173 plate appearances.

Runs Scored: 5.4 R/G vs 2.1 R/G. Sheesh.

In 2 less games, they averaged 3.3 less runs per game and 173 less plate appearances. Those things considered; you’re going to see a lot of stats that are less. (Ex. Down 15 doubles and 9 home runs, but also 26 less walks and 37 less strike outs.) You have to look at percentages.

4.2% doubles turned into 2.6%. 2.4% HR vs 1.4%. 11% BB vs 9.6%. 23.8% K vs 24.6%.

Honestly, it’s not that different. Less than a 2% difference in XBH. They only increased strike outs by 0.8%. The batting average, though, dropped 62 points to .197. That matters, but it’s a result and we already knew this. What we are looking for now is WHY.

Last month, we mentioned Batting Average on Balls in Play. This is a big factor again. A 72-point drop from .326, which is above league average, to .254, which is below league average. That’s a big drop, but it’s still not enough to say that the hitters were extremely lucky or unlucky. It’s a modest amount either way.

How do you raise BABIP?

It’s not something you really DO, but it’s something that happens. There are ways, though, to improve it. Hitting the ball hard and hitting more line drives, right? That would increase the Expected Batting Average (xBA) statistic, so you think it would, as a result, raise BABIP. This offense lowered their line drive rate by only 2.2% while increasing their hard contact (Baseball Info Solutions) by 1.3% and their Hard Hit% (Statcast) by 1.1%. Their average exit velocity also increased, but only by 0.8 mph.

TIME FOR SOME TABLES

I’m going to look at the batting averages (AVG), expected batting averages (xBA), and BABIP for the first 16 vs the next 14. xBA is defined by measuring the likelihood that a batted ball will become a hit. The difference between BABIP and xBA would be looking at what happened vs what was likely to happen. The xBA would be directly impacted by Hard Hit% and Launch Angle while the BABIP is always going to depend on what actually happened.

StatFirst 16Next 14
AVG.259.197
BABIP.326.254
xBA.253.227

What about swing and miss?

They were swinging the bat 0.4% more often and whiffed just 0.2% more often.

“Hey Josh… these are practically dead ends. What are we doing?”

RUNNERS IN SCORING POSITION (RISP)

In the first 16 games, the Pirates saw more pitches, in more plate appearances, than anyone else in the league with runners in scoring position. In the next 14 games, they saw the 25th most pitches in the 24th most plate appearances. Not only were they decreasing their opportunities with RISP, but production with the opportunity got even worse.

This table compares stats with RISP in the first 16 against the next 14 games.

Stat w/ RISPFirst 16Next 14
PA/G13.27.6
K%22.724.3
BB%14.29.3
AVG.259.130
OBP.365.217
BABIP.328.149
Hard Hit%36.227.1
Barrel%6.92.9
Whiff%25.530.9

We look at something like this and it starts to shed a light into what’s going on. Across the board, each one of these numbers is worse.

This table shows the difference between ‘with RISP’ and ‘without RISP’. It shows the major league average so far in 2024, the Pirates first 16 games, and the Pirates next 14 games. As you probably can assume, without RISP is the baseline.

(Ex. League PA/G is -18. That means 18 less plate appearances with RISP than without RISP.)

StatPA/GK%BB%AVGOBPBABIPWhiff%Hard Hit%Barrel%
League-18-1.61.6.021.025.0130.2-1.1-0.2
PIT, 16-15.3-1.65.4.000.041.003-2.4-3.1-1.7
PIT, 14-20.1-0.40.0-.085-.075-.1334.4-16.2-4.6

MAKE SENSE OF THIS

Let’s look at the league average first. Hitters tend to strike out less, walk more, swing and miss less, hit the ball hard less, and barrel balls less. Loose assumption: with RISP, they shorten up and put the ball in play while sacrificing some of the harder hits in the process.

(I think it’s interesting that they increase their batting average with this approach. I checked, too; this was usually 10 points higher over the last 5 years. While not quite the 21 points so far in 2024, it’s still higher. Makes you wonder why they don’t do this all the time. – I digress.)

During this 14-game stretch of offensive struggle, the Pirates have lowered their AVG by 85 points with RISP. From .215 without RISP to a dismal .130 with RISP. They did not limit strike outs as much, they didn’t walk more, they whiffed more often, while also drastically lowering barrels and hard hits when they did make contact. It has not been pretty.

Say what you want about the approach. You can include whatever narrative you want here. I think a lot of people have a misperception of what this “philosophy” or “approach” is. Instead of going down that path, I think we can all agree on one thing that is lacking: execution.

The hitters are not doing their part and the coaching staff is not doing their part. When you have trends like this showing team-wide struggle across the board, you would expect the coaching staff to identify some issues and begin working on what’s going on. Naming the problem is the first step to fixing it.

CONCLUSIONS

Clutch hitting is something that I don’t believe we have a good statistic for, yet. I think it’s a human thing. Is it possible that this team is full of guys who just freeze when it matters? Maybe the first 16 games say no and the next 14 say yes. The fact is the further they are from league average, one way or the other, will most likely write the story of 2024 for this organization. The trend seems to point to their ability to produce with RISP being a key indicator of their success.

Also, if something on the field does not change, something in that hitting room must. If it is not going to be gameplan, philosophy, or the time put into individual hitters, it’s going to be changing the humans, right? It’s difficult to blow up the roster and change all the hitters. So, we will continue to go to one place: the hitting coach.

I won’t touch that with a 10-foot pole. That’s not what I’m here for.

AI generated using Udio.com.

Operation Locked Up: The Pirates Offense has Succumbed to Paralysis by Analysis

5-1-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The pitcher has got only a ball. I’ve got a bat. So the percentage in weapons is in my favor and I let the fellow with the ball do the fretting. – Hank Aaron

One of my favorite quotes from an all time great hitter, and I’ve always loved it because Aaron was one of the very few who didn’t have to first make sure everyone knew how hard hitting was. He didn’t talk about what the pitchers tried to do, he talked about how he always had the advantage. He was the one with the weapon after all.

It didn’t need to be statistically true. It didn’t need to work in every at bat. It just needed to exist because Hank needed his mindset to be right there in that space. He needed to feel dangerous. Needed to feel that the pitcher’s plan didn’t matter because his was better. He needed to believe deep down in his toes that a pitcher could make one mistake and he wouldn’t need a second.

There are about a billion people out here yelling about a hitting coach being fired, I’ve been one of them and this is why.

We rightly point out that the players own their careers and need to perform despite who their coach is. But the mindset this coaching sets up makes that very difficult.

Think about it, it’s almost entirely focused on the pitcher and what he can do to the hitters, not what the hitter can or should do to the pitcher.

The very idea of trying to make a pitcher throw enough pitches to get out of the game stands in direct opposition to the possibility that you could get him out of the game by hitting what he throws too. It sets the mindset in a defensive posture, again, while the hitter stands there holding the weapon.

It’s a boring brand of baseball for fans. Even when it works. This approach has a ceiling and that ceiling exists almost despite the talent level of the team.

Like, without looking, would you believe this Pirates team is 15th in the league for On Base Percentage at .314? 9th in the National League. They’re getting guys on, certainly enough to be scoring more where they rank 21st in the game.

Thing is, they don’t get that big hit and that should surprise nobody because once they get those guys on base, the reality always comes bubbling to the surface, at some point you have to hit to make it matter.

How many times have you seen the Pirates get runners at 2nd and 3rd with less than one out then watch whoever is hitting draw the easiest walk of his life to load the bases? The next hitter either looks like he’d kill for a walk to drive in a run or he works the count and winds up protecting and hitting a pitchers pitch for a double play or best case scenario a groundout that scores a run.

Where is that Hank Aaron mentality? When does that guy come up who thinks I’ve got this guy right where I want him, he has to throw strikes and when he does, I’m going to rope it.

Who walks to the plate looking like that’s even in their head, let alone front of mind?

I said this at the beginning of the season and it’s still true. If they don’t hit Ben Cherington is going to have to admit one of two things. 1. He and his team have identified talent poorly, these are simply bad hitters. 2. He and his team have adopted an offensive philosophy that produces passivity and it’s destroying his identified talent.

Of course both could be true, both probably are, after all, this wasn’t set up to be a juggernaut even in the most optimistic view, but at the very least, one can be easily changed, the other not so much. Point being, even if the real answer is both, or they’ve damaged the talent so much it won’t rebound with a change, the first scapegoat will be the hitting coach.

At some point.

If you flipped this team’s offensive philosophy on it’s head and applied it to pitching you’d see a guy like Jared Jones trying to paint corners with his 101 MPH fastball. You’d see him throw a slider off the plate when he has that slugger at 3-2 with nobody on. Better to lose the battle and win the war they’d say! Instead, you see him challenge hitters with his best stuff and while it’s led to a few more solo homeruns than you’d like, unlike the offense, he isn’t loading the bases first by being passive on the way there.

If you hit him, you’re hitting what he wanted to throw.

You’d call it nibbling. Probably see him as a head case. Afraid of the zone you’d exclaim.

Well, your mentality at the plate matters too.

Another thing their philosophy does is render many of the analytics they have on pitchers irrelevant.

Hear me out.

You can look at a player like last night’s starter for the A’s Alex Wood, and in every way you can see he gives up a bunch of hits, walks a lot of guys, he’s giving up hard contact regularly and he’s not lasting into games very long. 7 starts now and he has 31.1 innings.

So what does that tell you?

He’s going to get himself out of the game early, he doesn’t need your help. Part of the reason he gets himself out of the game is because he puts a bunch of guys on base and throws a bunch of pitches to do it.

Now your approach is to make him throw a bunch of pitches and get him out of the game early. Two things are working against you if you’re the Pirates. First, he’s a veteran, and it will take him all of an inning to realize these idiots aren’t swinging at anything down in the zone early in counts. Second, if you want to walk 3 times around 3 weak contact or strikeout appearances, he doesn’t care so long as it’s scoreless. In other words, he’ll take what you’re giving him, and he’s savvy enough to know he doesn’t even need to show you his best until he’s got you on the ropes.

That’s one pitcher. Think back through what you’ve watched. How many times have you seen a pitcher like Trevor Williams do the same?

You get guys like this out of the game by the 5th and they’ve walked you 4 times but given up 1 hit, really good chance they exit the game having given their team a chance to win. I’m surprised they don’t cap tip the Pirates dugout as they leave the mound for their last inning. You’re doing them favors by letting them do exactly what they’re capable of. Nibbling with little fear of being hit. Putting guys on base with little fear a big swing is going to put up a crooked number.

The Pirates do better against better pitchers than they do mediocre hurlers if only because they don’t expect the better pitchers to walk them so they tend to be at least a little more prepared to hit.

Thing is, their philosophy is designed specifically to get THOSE pitchers out of the game, not Alex Wood. It doesn’t accomplish it’s stated intent, and I can think of no greater reason to make changes.

They will hit better than they are, there’s more going on here than a philosophy, but with this coaching and this approach they’ll only get so good, and they won’t likely hold it as long as they hold the slumps.

I want hitters stepping into the box thinking they have a bunch of ways to beat the pitcher, but this team is much more concerned with aiming for a certain outcome, that comes about in a certain way. I don’t care what you do in life, if you approach it like that you’ll fail, so color me shocked it’s what we’re watching.

None of this fixes anything, I’m aware of that, but an Alika Williams at bat shouldn’t look the same as a Ke’Bryan Hayes at bat. It’s like entering your Kia and Porsche in a NASCAR race and thinking the way the driver operates the vehicle should produce similar outcomes and just to make sure you’re right, tell the Porsche driver 5th gear is only to be used in a specific situation.

Even if it doesn’t work, I want to see more “A” swings. If they’re going to continue on this path, they need to start preaching contact swings with 2 strikes and their vision of borderline needs to expand.

Fans want to see offense, contact, action and in turn scoring. All I can say is now in the 3rd season of this coaching we’ve seen anything but. If those things aren’t the very core of whatever you’re trying to achieve at the plate, you simply aren’t as smart as you think.

They’re paralyzing their hitters with too many things that aren’t hitting the baseball and in this league, you simply won’t win if you aren’t capable of at least putting balls in play. Every hitter is going to get got, that’s baseball, but not every hitter should be going up there thinking first and foremost that so long as that happens in an 8 pitch at bat they’ve done well.

There are 5 teams that swing at fewer pitches in the strike zone than the Pirates.

In 0-0 counts the Pirates are hitting .308 with 37 hits
In 0-1 counts the Pirates are hitting .297 with 22 hits
In 0-2 counts the Pirates are hitting .125 with 13 hits

Universal truths in baseball, these counts look a lot like this for just about everyone. The success rate falls as the count becomes one sided.

Even if this system works and you get deep into a count though…

In 2-2 counts the Pirates are hitting .185 with 32 hits
In 3-2 counts the Pirates are hitting .179 with 21 hits

Ahead in the count this team hits .294 with an OBP of .508 and an OPS of .963 – 7th in baseball.
Behind in the count this team hits .164 with an OBP of .170 and an OPS of .396 – 28th in baseball.

This isn’t a team that can have deep counts as a goal. Their fall off is simply too great when the count takes a turn. Part of that is the talent of course, but part of it is they have a terrible two strike approach.

Too many things have to go right for this offense to succeed.

The longer this goes on, the harder it becomes to talk about. They don’t change, there is no player who is going to suddenly “do it right” and hit 15 homers in a month. At this point it would take 2 consecutive weeks of hitting and winning to have fans get back to being able to watch the game with both eyes again.