2025 First Round Options

7-11-2025 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on X

The 2025 MLB Entry Draft is coming up quickly. The Pirates find themselves in quite a nice position selecting 6th overall. The overall makeup of this draft class is that it is deep with talent in round 1 & no “clear” #1 guy. This is a terrific year to pick outside of the pole position.

Teams ‘do not draft for need’ is a generally accepted maxim when it comes to the MLB Draft. The first thing to clear up is that this is exactly why we will look at all types of options. While my aim is to keep this concise & look at a few different sectors of the draft pool, there are quite a few options to cover. Selecting at 6, some of these players will be off of the board. But given the inherent unpredictability of how teams selecting 1-5 will behave, we will touch on all sectors of options. For the first group lets go ahead with college arms.

Big Men On Campus

This group is comprised of three big time lefthanded hurlers. These names are all fairly recognizable to anyone that watched the NCAA tournament or followed college baseball for any length of time this season. They are Kade Anderson, Liam Doyle, & Jamie Arnold.

Kade Anderson, LSU – A 2025 Golden Spikes Semi-Finalist as a draft eligible sophomore Anderson carried the torch of LSU aces admirably. Anderson completed his season going 12-1 with 180 K/35 BB, 3.18 ERA & 2.93 FIP over 119 IP. Anyone who watched him deal during the College World Series got a glimpse of the dominance. During the CWS he tossed 16IP that included a complete game shut-out.

His arsenal features four offerings a four seamer that can touch 97 (sits mid 90s), a plus curveball, an above-average slider, and a near average-ish changeup. A major plus is that he is a highly skilled pitcher that can command his entire arsenal. Anderson should be a no-doubt starter at the next level with remaining projection given his frame and strike-throwing ability.

Perusing mock drafts, it seems to be a longshot that Anderson will tumble to 6.

Liam Doyle, Tennessee – One of three Golden Spikes Finalists, watching Liam Doyle pitch is an exhilarating experience. It is so different than watching most pitchers at times it feels like you are watching a different sport. When Doyle is extremely amped up the viewer gets the same feeling as watching “Uncut Gems.” There is a sense of the batter’s impending doom hanging over each pitch, like Howard Ratner placing that (obviously ruinous) ‘can’t miss’ bet only to swing & miss before slinking back to the dugout.

Doyle finished the season in Knoxville with a 10-4 record and 1 save in 19 appearances. He had an absurd 42.6 K% and a sterling 34.3 K-BB% that was due in large part to his elite four seam fastball that is most likely the singular best offering in the draft. Doyle’s overall arsenal features a four seam, slider, cutter, & splitter. The secondary offerings are not quite as polished and seem to receive divided grades among evaluators. Some question his ability to remain a starter long-term, but it should be noted that he has done so in his 3 years of college baseball.

While not the same type of prospect, there are some obvious comparisons to Garrett Crochet to be drawn. Doyle, with his plus-heater could have a near immediate impact in a Major League bullpen, just as Crochet did in his draft year. Of course any team picking him in the top 10 will and should develop him as a starter.

Scanning the teams selecting ahead of Pittsburgh, Rockies pick 1.4 seems like the likely “floor” here, but the Angels and their desire to push round 1 picks sure makes a ton of sense at pick 1.2.

Jamie Arnold, Florida State – Another Golden Spikes Semi-Finalist, Jamie Arnold is our third and final Big Man On Campus. Of the trio-Arnold is probably my personal favorite of the LHH college trio. Very likely to remain a starting pitcher, Arnold throws from a funky arm angle that helps his entire repertoire play up. He features two near plus pitches in his four seamer & slider. He also works a change-up in that plays well off of the two more premium pitches. Earlier this season there were some reports that he was tinkering with a cutter, but I have not seen a ton of evidence of that pitch sticking around. Take a look at his arm angle along with some of the specs that make him so damn enticing as a prospect:

2025 saw Arnold toss 84.2 IP going 8-2 with a 2.98 ERA, 2.95 FIP, 119 K/27 BB. If you think you see shades of Chris Sale here, I’d be inclined to agree. I am not saying that as a direct comparison by any means, but there are some definite similarities.

Of the three, I am inclined to think Arnold making it to 1.6 is the most “realistic” proposition.

The Duke of Corona Highschool is A #1

Our Prep Pitchers group really only has one entry to cover in my opinion. Lets meet him:

Seth Hernandez, Corona HS (CA) – The 2025 Gatorade Player of the year, Seth Hernandez is a dawg standing at 6’4″, 190lbs at just 19 years old. In preparing for this write up several evaluators have gone out of their way to note that Hernandez is the best prep arm to enter a draft since Hunter Greene in 2017. Hernandez boasts an arsenal that is almost unfathomable to imagine oneself stepping in to the box against as a Highschool student. You’d have to stare down a plus fastball, plus-plus changeup, and two other above-average pitches (slider & curve), ride the bus all the way home & you STILL have to write that god damn essay on The Great Gatsby (you didn’t read it, you aren’t going to read it). You just whiffed 4 times on your only 4 swings. F**k Nick Carraway, honestly.

Committed to Vanderbilt, Hernandez seems to be a lock to go top 8-10 and forgo that commitment. In terms of pure upside, I believe that Seth Hernandez is nearly unrivaled in this draft class. The odds of his availability at pick 1.6 seem to be fair, a tremendous addition to any farm system.

Leave It To (a) Beaver

Aiva Arquette, Oregon State – Arguably the top college position player in the 2025 draft class, Aiva Arquette is a big human being. Standing 6’4″, 205lbs and holding down shortstop for the Oregon State Beavers and mashing his way to a Golden Spikes Semi-Finalist finish himself with a final line of; 19 homers, 17 doubles, 1 triple, 73 runs scored, 66 RBI, 7 steals, slashing .354/.461/.654 to go along with a .481 wOBA & 153 wRC+. Ultimately some question on his ability to stick at short as he is already a large human, he can really mash baseballs with near plus power backed by 60 grade EVs, high quality of contact, & a rougly 60% hard hit rate.

Above I noted that he may not be able to stick at short, but he has flashed some impressive ability at the position for a man of his size. Check this slick play out:

His hit tool lags a little behind with most outlets projecting it to be capable of reaching a 50 level, but there was some concern about swing decisions in the profile too. Ultimately he is able to offset these concerns with his ability to punish the ball and make high quality QoC.

There is a good deal of evidence linking Seattle to Arquette at 1.3. The odds of him being on the board at 1.6 seems somewhat poor as of writing.

All The Young Dudes

Our final player block to run through are prep hitters. This year’s draft features significantly more Round 1 Highschool bats than 2024, by a sizeable margin. Of course, most of them are shortstops (because the best athletes play there, folks) so I will just label them all as such. This group is comprised of Ethan Holliday, Eli Willits, Billy Carlson, and JoJo Parker.

Ethan Holliday, Stillwater HS (OK) – I am confident almost everyone reading this is already familiar with this player. Yes, he is part of that Holliday lineage. Yes, he is a good baseball player. Yes, he will almost definitely come off the board before 1.6. But we should look at him briefly anyway just in case something funky happens.

From the jump I’d like to note that based upon researching for this write up I found myself a touch lower on Holliday The Younger than most. What he does well, hit for power and display discipline at the plate. While it is not easy to find much in the way of up to date data for public consumption on HS hitters, it seems to be pretty widely acknowledged that Holliday has a pretty questionable hit tool with somewhat limited athleticism compared to others in this bucket.

That being said, the upside is very high due to his massive power potential, several evaluators have placed a 70 grade on it.

The thunder in the bat is undeniable. Pair that with his approach/discipline and the family bloodlines and you’ve got yourself a high end prospect.

I expect him to come off of the board within the first 3 picks.

Eli Willits, Fort Cobb-Broxton HS (OK) – Eli Willitis probably has the most helium heading in to draft day as any other prospect. He has reclassified from the 2026 class to 2025, making him one of the youngest (maybe youngest overall) player in this draft. He will not turn 18 until December 2025. From watching Willits play, I get the feeling that it is a “solid across the board” profile without a true standout tool present right now but rather a lot of above average tools and lots of projection due to bloodlines, age, & frame.

I do not want anyone to come away with the impression that “solid across the board” is meant as a pejorative. This kid looks like a natural ballplayer. A lot of times this type of profile is kind of poo-pooed because there isn’t a ton of “flash” necessarily. But in reality these players have quite a bit of value due to a higher floor and greater possibility of turning in to an every day player and/or regular. If you combine this with floor with that projection (MLB bloodline, young draft age, physical projection) Major League Baseball front offices & scouts begin to salivate. Like, they actually drool. It is all a part of a decades long social experiment ala Pavlov’s Dog. It is Pavlov’s Prospect.

He is committed to the University of Oklahoma where his father (former MLB player Reggie Willits) is on the coaching staff. Given the likelihood that he is selected in the top 8 picks and as recently as one week out from draft day, he has a real 1.1 possibility (would be the youngest player ever picked 1.1) he will not be playing college baseball.

The Pirates have been linked to Willits, but at this point, I’d be shocked if he is on the board at 1.6.

Billy Carlson, Corona HS (CA) – The second player out of Corona HS in this piece, Billy Carlson has become somewhat divisive. There are some mixed opinions on his ability to become an impact hitter. What there are no mixed opinions on are his ability to stick at shortstop. Virtually all reports on Carlson put a 70 on both the glove and the throwing arm (he was also a pitcher and could touch 97). Additionally, at almost all prep events his athleticism has tested extremely well.

I am probably above consensus on Carlson’s future bat prospects. At the 2024 Prep Baseball All-American Game his swing speed max was measured at 81.1 mph. That is stupendous, by the way. It seems to me that he has been subject to something of “prospect fatigue” given that he has been on Draft evaluators radars since his Freshman year.

While there is no assurance that the bat will develop, I think his floor is quite high. The Pirates have been linked to him early and often in the lead up to this draft. If I had to make an educated guess, I think he is likely to be the selection at 1.6.

JoJo Parker, Purvis HS (MS) – Much like Eli Willits, JoJo Parker has also been a riser as we get nearer to draft day. He put on a good show at the MLB Draft Combine where he you can see the swing pretty geared to hit the ball hard in the air with evidently fast and strong hands.

Most outlets have come around to declaring Parker the best hit/power combo of the prep shortstops and I think I am buying that too. He is good but not great athleticism and may eventually need to move off of short. But a team selecting JoJo is picking him for the bat. As it relates to the Pirates connection, there is somewhat of a link between 2024 first rounder, Konnor Griffin, and the Parkers (JoJo & Jacob).

It is very likely that JoJo is in the mix for 1.6 & unless someone really has a last minute obsession in the 1-5 range he is absolutely a real possible option.

Wrapping It Up

We covered a lot of prospects here. Many of whom have been linked or rumored to go ahead of 1.6. It felt important to include them too though. There are some teams picking ahead of Pittsburgh who are sort of wild cards (Rockies, Angels, Nationals who just fired their GM). Trying to make any firm predictions here is a fools errand. If I had to give my own personal preference based on the players I think will be available, it would look like this

Seth Hernandez/Jamie Arnold/Billy Carlson/Eli Willits/JoJo Parker

I would have a VERY difficult time passing on adding either Hernandez or Arnold to this club. Putting them in to this development system is simply too tough to pass up.

It should be said that NONE of these picks would be “bad.” There are even others that I did not include who would also be great here (Ike Irish, Josh Hammond, Gavin Fien, Daniel Pierce, Kyson Witherspoon, Marek Houston). Picking at 6 in this draft is a great place to find your team!

I simply cannot wait until Draft Day & look forward to following the new crop of Young Bucs.

Starter Spotlight: Kris-tal Clear

7-9-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Offensive woes persist for the Bucs as the Pirates will hope to avoid being swept for a second straight series today as they finish the Royals series up against southpaw Kris Bubic.

Bubic has quietly been one of the better pitchers in MLB this season with the 7th lowest ERA (2.36) and he enters today with a 7-6 record through 17 starts this season.

Drafted 40th overall in the 2018 by Kansas City, the 2025 All Star is finally getting results as a big leaguer after injury and ineffectiveness plagued his first few years in MLB.

He debuted with the Royals during the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, posting a solid but underwhelming 4.32 ERA over 10 starts and 50 innings pitched.

The next two seasons were much of the same as he pitched 259 innings with a 5.00 ERA over 2021 and 2022, bouncing between starting and relieving for KC.

He started 2023 in the Royals rotation but less than a month into the season, it was announced he would undergo Tommy John Surgery. After returning last year and pitching exclusively out of the pen, he is off the leash and leading the Royals rotation.

Although he doesn’t throw especially hard, Bubic has shown an ability to get chases on his pitches at an elite level by attacking the zone and mixing between heat and offspeed.

He works low-90s fastball for both his 4-seam and 2-seam while shifting to the mid-80s for his slider, sweeper and changeup offerings.

Hitters today will want to target his fastballs as opponents are hitting .276 against these offerings compared to .209 against breaking balls and .152 versus his changeup.

Look for elevated heat to attack early in counts. They’re starting to score a couple more runs lately but need to figure out how to break out a BIG offensive outburst.

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Starter Spotlight: There Lugo Again

7-8-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Although they were not able to secure a win, the Pirates broke out of their streak of posting zeros on the scoreboard. Now, they’ll look to take another step with a victory today as they face veteran Seth Lugo, who is 6-5 with a 2.65 ERA over his first 16 starts this year.

Lugo spent his first 8 MLB seasons pitching  in the Senior Circuit – with the Mets for 7 years and the Padres for 1 – but has only started getting acclaim since joining the Royals in 2024 where he made his first All Star Game and went 16-9 with a 3.00 ERA over 206.2 innings pitched as he finished runner-up in Cy Young voting to Tarrik Skubal.

Despite the accolades and strong numbers, Lugo isn’t blowing away hitters with overpowered stuff. In fact, his 14% K-BB rate is near an all-time low – as is his .244 BABIP – while posting the highest strand rate (86.7%) of his career.

Similar to the situation with yesterday’s starter, Lugo’s ERA-FIP is among the worst and most lopsided among qualified starters.

He also ranks well below average in hard-hit rate, whiff rate, chase rate, average exit velocity and fastball velocity – ranking in the bottom quartile for each category.

So, how exactly is he successful with below average stuff and underlying metrics? Well, he has a uniquely diverse pitch mix with ten different pitches logged this season, per BaseballSavant.

He mixes speed and location – including varying speeds on his curve – to keep batters off their timing and limit mistake pitches.

He doesn’t strongly favor specific pitches in matchups but has been leaning more heavily on the curve/4-seam/changeup against lefties and sinker/4-seam when facing righties. 

The secondary pitches have been a challenge for Lugo to execute this season against lefties are pummeling his curve with a .351 batting average against while batting .324 and slugging .514 against his changeup. Compare that to a .192 BAA for his fastballs and it’s clear what left handed hitters should target.

Righties are batting just .161 against Lugo with a .485 OPS so loading up lefties will be the best path for success today.

If the lefties like Cruz, Reynolds and Frazier can do some damage early and give Mitch Keller some run support,the Bucs might just have a chance of breaking this losing skid.

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Gary’s Five Pirates Thoughts – Adjust, Adapt, and Overcome

7-7-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The Pirates got a taste of their own medicine in Seattle and while the Mariners pitched very well, the Bucs approach that worked so well for them in their previous two series showed almost no signs of ever having existed.

I mean, a couple players still maintained an approach, while allowing it to adapt to different competition, but others got frustrated quickly and reverted to the all or nothing approach that helped them underachieve for the vast majority of the season.

Of all the things this team has done poorly under Ben Cherington, adapting the offensive approach quite possibly is the biggest.

Lets Go!

1. The Game Has Become Unrecognizable

There are a ton of ways I can describe how much this game has changed in the 2000’s, but I’m going to start with batting average. When things happen slowly, they can almost be unnoticed, but looking at it in this form will show just how drastic a change we’ve watched develop over the years.

The crazy thing is, this has largely been intentional. The reason has been launch angle, in an effort to produce more homeruns, but here’s the thing, it kinda hasn’t.

Now, the 2020 stat obviously means nothing, and 2025 is down so far, but the season is roughly half over with lots of work to do to get back up into the range that makes this look ok.

For what we’ve sacrificed in average, doesn’t it feel like we should have homeruns just skyrocketing? That’s what I expected to see anyway, instead, it actually crept down for the first 15 years of the decade and really spiked in 2019.

OK, so all power isn’t created equally, maybe I need to look at OPS, surely that’s taken a huge leap…

Yeah, not so much.

Look this is just the times MLB has admitted changing the baseball itself.

  • 2015 – Start of livelier ball era
  • 2019 – Record home run spike, MLB confirmed lower-drag ball
  • 2021 – Two different balls used during the season
  • 2022 – Humidors standardized across all ballparks
  • 2025 – if you believe Andrew McCutchen has raised the stitching and increased drag on the ball

Point is, baseball has tried to add power, and it’s trained their players to hunt homeruns. It hasn’t produced more homeruns, just a bunch of mostly bad hitters who run into one here and there.

I think it would be great for the game to see a team win by just hitting, the way players used to hit, and it’s part of why I was so excited to hear Don Kelly talk about their new philosophy as a hitting unit. Sadly, they don’t have the players to execute that to a high degree of success either, but if you want to see baseball start to value the things we grew up with, you’re probably going to have to see some team succeed at it.

Winning creates copycats.

Pitchers have gotten better, nastier too, it’s not all baseball or hitting philosophy, but it’s always going to be easier to get 100 MPH past a guy swinging for the Allegheny than it is to get it past a guy who just wants to take that pitch to the opposite field.

Pitching is still going to get outs, but more contact will at least even the scales a bit. These things change slowly, and when it does, it’ll probably feel like it happened overnight.

I bet it’ll be a change that started long before we notice though.

2. Edward Florentino

Edward Florentino is quickly emerging as one of the most intriguing young talents in the Pittsburgh Pirates’ farm system. Signed out of the Dominican Republic during the 2024 international signing period for a $395,000 bonus, Florentino has already begun to turn heads with his advanced approach at the plate and physical tools. At just 18 years old, the 6-foot-4 left-handed hitter has shown a rare combination of patience, power, and athleticism that has vaulted him into the Pirates’ top 30 prospects list 

Florentino’s offensive profile is built around excellent bat speed and a natural loft in his swing, which has translated into early power production. Across multiple levels in 2025 — including the Florida Complex League and Single-A Bradenton — he’s slashed a combined .326/.414/.625 with 9 home runs and 12 stolen bases in just 43 games 

His ability to make consistent contact, especially against fastballs, and his mature plate discipline (more walks than strikeouts in his debut season) suggest a hitter well beyond his years.

Defensively, Florentino has seen time at all three outfield spots and first base. While his long, lanky frame might eventually push him to a corner outfield role or first base, Pirates coaches are still giving him reps in center field thanks to his surprising speed and strong work ethic. Scouts give him average or better grades across the board, with a current overall grade of 40 and projection for more as he fills out physically 

What makes Florentino particularly exciting is his upside. He’s still growing into his body, and if he continues to develop his power and refine his approach, he could become a middle-of-the-order threat with defensive versatility. Florentino’s early success and makeup suggest he could rise quickly through the system.

Sometimes a comp helps, but before I do, I’ve chosen a couple recognizable names who’ve been in the system for a lot longer, that in and of itself is impressive.

3. Konnor Griffin is on the Verge of Being Baseball’s Top Prospect

When Roman Anthony graduates from MLB’s Top 100 list, and providing Konnor Griffin is still dominating his season, he’ll likely be the new number 1.

It’s a meteoric rise for a player who was drafted 9th overall to be sure, but just how special is the season he’s putting together?

Welp, when you’re talking about a crazy start, you have to compare it to crazy comps.

Yup, I went there. It’s not my fault either, what this kid is doing, it’s not just “pretty good” or “promising” it’s otherworldly. I tried comping him to much lesser players and honestly I thought it made it look like I was trying to say he was the best prospect ever, lol.

I’m just saying, as it comes to exciting starts, Konnor is up there with some VERY big names in the game.

I can’t see a world in which he doesn’t at least progress to AA Altoona, and from there, it’s anyone’s guess.

Mike Trout and Bryce Harper spent 3 seasons in the minors, and Griffey just 2. All I’m saying is this is the track he’s on, if he keeps running the race the way these guys did, no reason to expect he couldn’t be here just as fast, and I’m not touching whether he’ll become a first ballot Hall of Famer, I swear, not what I’m trying to do here, just pointing out, this is a lot more than just “good”.

I don’t want to push the kid, hell, even his Dad was cautioning fans on X to “let the kid develop” but it’s going to be hard to hold him back if he keeps doing things like this. At some point, talent overrules, well, rules.

4. AAA Talent Ready for a Shot

The Pirates have some guys in AAA who are ready to get a shot, or maybe a last shot. This team needs to work them in because they need to make 40-man room and you can’t sort a bucket of fodder if you still believe some of them are relevant players.

The list isn’t all that long, and it’s categorized.

Decide One Way or Another
Ji-Hwan Bae
Jack Suwinski
Billy Cook
Liover Peguero

Probably Earned a Look
Nick Yorke
Bubba Chandler – Not 40-man
Hunter Barco – Not 40-man
Thomas Harrington
Eddy Yean – Not 40-man
Sean Sullivan – Not 40-man
Malcom Nunez – Not 40-man

This isn’t even an exhaustive list of who they might need to protect from the Rule 5 draft, we’ll write that up closer to the end of the season, but a quick look, you know Chandler and Barco need added, and yes, this trade deadline will change the chemistry, but some of these guys are either done or we’re going to see them.

Ben Cherington on his radio show kept talking about needing left handed bats, which is kinda part of the problem, but not THE problem, so I took it as laying track for the team calling Jack Suwinski back up. His bat has been working in AAA, I’m just saying, we could see it and they might not wait for the deadline to do it. It’s become rather clear the team is no longer interested in giving Alexander Canario bulk at bats.

5. Let’s Make the All Star Game Interesting Again!

Here’s my proposal. Let’s turn this into a 3 day mini tournament and skills competition. I’d also eliminate the requirement that each team be represented, this should be very much so about the best players in the game.

Teams:

  1. USA East – Players from east of the Mississippi
  2. USA West – Players from west of the Mississippi
  3. Latin America – Players from the Dominican Republic, Venezuela, Cuba, Puerto Rico, etc.
  4. World – Players from Japan, Korea, Canada, Australia, Europe, etc.

Schedule (3 Days)

Day 1: Semifinals

  • Game 1: USA East vs. Latin America
  • Game 2: USA West vs. World

Day 2: Skills Showcase

  • Home Run Derby (team-based)
  • Fastest Man Race
  • Outfield Throw Accuracy
  • Pitching Challenge (velocity + command)

Day 3: Championship + 3rd Place Game

  • Winners of Day 1 play for the title
  • Losers play for 3rd place

Nothing silly like home field advantage on the line, instead, just the National Pride that we’ve seen from the WBC classics we got to watch.

I think this could make for interesting teammates and matchups and if you wanted to add something to the skills competitions, maybe the winner of each category gets to select one player from the other 3 to add to their roster for the last day of competition.

I find all Pro Bowls, All Star games to be little more than annoying times where there are no games that resemble a spirit of competition, I’d like to see if this game could find a way to get some of that back.

Whatcha think?

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Starter Spotlight: Need Runs? I Noah Guy

7-7-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

The Mariners held the Bucs at bay but they can’t go run-less forever, right? Heading to Kansas City to face the Royals and rookie breakout southpaw, Noah Cameron.

Entering today with a very strong 2.56 ERA through 56.1 innings, Cameron was a 7th round pick out of the University of Central Arkansas in the 2021 draft, consistently putting up solid minor league numbers in the Royals system with a career 11.25 K/9 and 2.69 BB/9 through four seasons.

However, he hasn’t seen the strong strikeout numbers translate to the bigs with 43 Ks thus far though he’s managed to limit both walks and hits with a 1.01 WHIP and .186 batting average against.

Outside of two very poor starts against the pennant-winning Yankees and defending champion Dodgers, Cameron has been lights out as he has held opponents to 1 or less run in 7 of his 10 starts on the year.

That said, he hasn’t seen benefited from some batted ball luck with a .206 BABIP which would be by far the lowest rate of his career.

This, coupled with a sub-par strikeout rate, have Cameron skating on glass just waiting for things to break.

Among pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched, Cameron has the 10th worst ERA-FIP differential with a strong likelihood of regression to the mean in the near future.

Looking at his delivery and pitch mix, Cameron has a high-slot arm angle, driving the ball down and creating deceptive movement on his breaking balls.

He has a low-90s 4-seam/cutter while mixing in low-80s slider, curve and changeup – but the slider has been the most effective offering with a wOBA of .096.

By contrast, his fastballs haven’t been nearly as successful with hitters batting .253 with 4 home runs against Cameron’s heaters, which he typically runs high and inside to right handed hitters.

It’s a big ballpark in KC so this team should look to take advantage of the spacious terrain, get some line drives to the gaps and get a run – or maybe a few – to support the pitching today.

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Series Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates (38-53) at Kansas City Royals (43-48)

7-7-2025 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_EtHaN on X

Well, baseball comes at you fast, and for the Pittsburgh Pirates, the game of baseball turned cruel for them on their trip to Seattle.

Pittsburgh has been making some history as of late, on the good side, up until this series versus the Mariners, where the history took a turn for worse, as Pittsburgh managed zero runs versus Seattle after shutting out the Cardinals in all three games of their previous series, a first in MLB history.

Pittsburgh turns its sights to the Kansas City Royals, winners of their weekend series over the Arizona Diamondbacks, capping off the series win with a 4-0 victory on Sunday.

Although the Royals haven’t met the expectations they set for 2025 up to this point, its still a roster that features plenty of talent, from star Bobby Witt Jr. to up-and-coming prospect Jac Caglianone.

Pittsburgh will see Kansas City for the next three days in their second to last series before the All-Star break, so lets take a look at what you should see and expect over the next few days.

7/7

Pirates: LHP Andrew Heaney: 4-7 / 4.16 ERA / 1.20 WHIP / 93.0 IP / 81 H / 71 K / 31 BB / 14 HR

Royals: LHP Noah Cameron: 2-4 / 2.56 ERA / 1.01 WHIP / 56.1 IP / 38 H / 43 K / 19 BB / 6 HR

7/8

Pirates: RHP Mitch Keller: 3-10 / 3.64 ERA / 1.19 WHIP / 106.1 IP / 101 H / 84 K / 26 BB / 7 HR

Royals: RHP Seth Lugo: 6-5 / 2.65 ERA / 1.09 WHIP / 95.0 IP / 74 H / 83 K / 30 BB / 13 HR

7/9

Pirates: LHP Bailey Falter: 6-4 / 3.69 ERA / 1.18 WHIP / 92.2 IP / 77 H / 56 K / 32 BB / 12 HR

Royals: LHP Kris Bubic: 7-6 / 2.36 ERA / 1.15 WHIP / 103.0 IP / 86 H / 107 K / 32 BB / 6 HR

Pirates: Nick Gonzales

Nick Gonzales has been a highly touted young player for the Pirates for some time now, and unfortunately, Gonzales’ 2025 campaign has been cut short a little due to injury, but that hasn’t stopped him from producing.

The 26-year old second baseman has posted a .345/.397/.517 slash with two home runs and eight RBIs over his last 15 games, including a three-hit performance in the opening game of the Pirates series versus Seattle.

Gonzales has also posted an impressive .893 OPS versus left-handed pitching this year, and with two lefties slated to go for the Royals, this could be yet another strong series for Gonzo.

Royals: Bobby Witt Jr.

The Royals offense as a whole has struggled a ton this year, but Bobby Witt Jr. has once again remained a steady force offensively for Kansas City.

The Royals stud shortstop has a .333/.354/.508 slash with two home runs and nine RBIs over his last 15 games, and he’s coming off a series versus Arizona in which he collected five hits and three RBIs, collecting an RBI and a hit in all three contests.

July has already been kind to Witt Jr. as well, as evidence from his 1.004 OPS since the calendar turned.

Anytime the Pirates, or any team, plays the Royals, Witt Jr. is instantly circled as a problem for pitching staffs, and it will surely be no different in this series.

Pirates: Isiah Kiner-Falefa

Popularly labeled one of Pittsburgh’s top trade pieces, Isiah Kiner-Falefa hasn’t had a good stretch offensively, posting a .220/.250/.260 slash over his last 15 games.

Extend that to his past 30, and things don’t change much, as IKF is hitting just .219 in that span, including just one hit in eight at-bats versus the Mariners this past weekend.

The glove will always be a huge component for IKF’s game, but the Buccos could use his bat, and many others, for some juice heading into the All-Star break and trade deadline season.

Royals: Jonathan India

Jonathan India was a major pickup in the offseason for the Royals, but he’s also been a large part of the offensive issues the Royals have dealt with all year.

India enters this series with a .666 OPS on the season and he’s slashing just .232/.348/.321 over his past 15 games. He collected two hits in 10 at-bats in the Royals series win over Arizona, and he could find some luck in this series as his below average production versus right-handers(.647 OPS) may be avoided with Heaney and Falter slated for the Buccos.

Nevertheless, Kansas City was hoping for more from adding India to the offense, but the rewards haven’t been fruitful whatsoever.

Pirates:

Colin Holderman(15-day IL), Ryan Borucki(15-day IL)

Royals:

Hunter Harvey(60-day IL), Daniel Lynch IV(15-day IL), Michael Massey(10-day IL), Blake Mitchell(7-day IL)

Notes

  • The Royals defeated the Pirates in their 2024 series two games to one
  • Kansas City leads the all-time series 23-22, holding a 13-6 record at home versus Pittsburgh
  • Starting pitchers Mitch Keller and Seth Lugo could both be on the move this trade deadline season and both are pitching in this series
  • Notable players to play for both Pittsburgh and Kansas City include Amos Otis, Jason Kendall, Jay Bell, Freddie Patek and Lonnie Smith, with 2025 Pirates Adam Frazier and Tommy Pham being the most recent players to play for both franchises

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Starter Spotlight: Adventures with Kirby

7-6-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

This offense is back to its underwhelming ways after losing zeros through the first two games of this series. The road doesn’t get easier today as they go up against control-pitcher, George Kirby.

Kirby is an edge-lord and master painter, hitting corners, avoiding the middle of the plate and limiting walks. Since his debut in 2022, no one has a lower walk rate than Kirby.

After an injury-delayed start to the season and a few early hiccups, Kirby is locked back in as he allowed two or less runs in 5 of his last 6 starts.

He enters today with a 4.85 ERA over 42.2 innings with 41 strikeouts to 9 walks.

I covered him previously when last faced the Pirates on August 18th last year, pitching 6 innings and holding the Bucs to 2 runs of 4 hits and 2 walks with 5 strikeouts.

He has six unique pitches after adding a high-80s changeup this past offseason back to his fastball, slider, sinker, curve, split mix.

Kirby runs his fastballs up to 98 MPH while dropping as low as 82 with his knuckle-curve. He will mainly use the 4-seam against lefties and the sinker when facing righties with the slider as his main secondary for both.

Surprisingly, both are having the most success against Kirby’s slider as righties are posting a .286 batting average against the pitch while lefties are batting .421 and slugging .632 against the offering.

He typically runs the slider down arm-side and off the plate but if he doesn’t pull it enough, it can be the one for Pirates hitters to target.

It’s another tough opposing pitcher today but there’s no time like the present for the bats to get hot again.

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Starter Spotlight: Crack the Rock

7-5-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

The winning streak may have come to an end yesterday but it’s always a good day to start another one – and there’s no better pitcher to do it against than former divisional foe, Luis Castillo.

The 3-time All Star nicknamed “La Piedra” (which translates to “The Rock”) struggled the last time he faced the Pirates in August, as he allowed 4 runs over 5.1 innings of work with 3 walks and 6 strikeouts.

He’s dropped off a bit in production the past few years since his career-high 5.2 bWAR in 2019 and while he has still gotten fairly solid results, the underlying numbers tell a different story.

Castillo has seen a steady decline in his strikeout rate, dropping to career-low 7.38 K/9 and 19.4% K rate this year after posting a 10.01 K/9 and 27.3% K rate just two years ago in a campaign where he finished 5th in Cy Young voting.

Consequently, he has seen his batting average against jump from .216 to .247 and xERA climb from 3.79 to 4.71 over the past two seasons.

The former Cincinnati Red has as many outings of 5 or less innings with 4 or more runs allowed as scoreless appearances this season (4 a piece).

Castillo features a 4-seamer and 2-seamer in the mid-90s, a mid-80s slider and a high-80s changeup.

His 4-seam fastball, similar to Bryan Woo, has produced strong results against hitters on both sides of the plates with an oBA of .229 for lefties and .133 for righties.

Lefties have found the most success against his slider (.364 BAA and .591 SLG) while righties have crushed the sinker (.385 BAA and .508 SLG).

As is common with Mariners starters, Castillo has been much better at home (.620 OPS) than outside of Seattle (.812 OPS) and a batting average more than 100 points lower than away.

Pick your pitch, pick a spot and be ready to attack. Castillo may still have the velocity and movement on his pitches but can catch too much plate and get punished by good hitting.

And the Pirates have shown some of that hitting lately – if they can just rock out against Castillo today.

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Halfway Through the Season, Pirates Have Big Decisions to Make

7-5-25 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

This season started going bad last December.

I mean, it had all the buildup you’d expect after a season of breathing life into your organization. Yeah, the team itself achieved the exact same 76 wins as they did the year before, but it was easy mentally to get past that because no matter what your criticism might be one aspect of what was being attempted here, you know, stinking and getting high draft picks, had decisively provided one shining diamond, Paul Skenes.

So we, the fans, at least the vast majority of us felt, ok, Skenes is a win, and overall, we love where the pitching is headed. Here’s what we need, a new coach, a new hitting coach, and a couple decent bats. Annnnd, if at all possible, a new GM to make the changes.

Not a lot to ask for really. LOL Just change the GM and surgically change the coaching and have the new guy spend smarter, better, more, whatever the dream may be.

Point is, we got a new hitting coach and some spare part hitters. A couple nice reliever additions if I pretend most of us knew who they were.

So the natives got restless and the team ultimately admitted the error of one of their decisions to ignore the obvious by dismissing Shelton, and while the GM remains, he’s not as involved in the on the field stuff, clearly, and reportedly.

I don’t jump back here to pretend I was right, because clearly I won’t be, but I predicted an 83 win season this year. I thought they were essentially a .500 team this year looking at what I thought they had.

I think under Don Kelly, that’s exactly the team they’re playing like. And under Shelton they severely underachieved.

Now, I could say ok, but Shelton had Bednar the DFA candidate, Kelly has Bednar the All Star candidate. Shelton had Holderman mucking it up, Kelly had Holderman on the IL. Shelton got nothing out of Canario, Kelly played Canario, got a bit of production. Shelton had Cruz hitting like an All Star, Kelly has gotten Cruz the project. Probably the biggest of these, Shelton didn’t have Gonzales or Horwitz, Kelly did, along with a productive Frazier.

Point is, you can do that stuff all day long, at the end of the day, the record is much better, the energy is better, and the communication to both the players and the media is big time improved from at least the coaching level now.

The point of all this, Ben Cherington built a team that maxes out around .500 if a whole lot of stuff goes right.

I take a couple things from that. First, he thought it was better than that, not a ton better, but he thought this was an 81-85 win team. Second, the single biggest reason he won’t reach .500 or better is his decision to keep a bad coach in place and choosing to sign two lesser pieces for offensive help as opposed to one that might actually lengthen the lineup.

Now that’s where we are, and how we got here. I think I still feel the GM needs to go, but for today, let’s just focus on what would be smart for this club to do. And I’ll break this into a 4 point plan.

1. State Your Intention for 2026

I want nothing less than Bob Nutting himself to come out with a simple statement. I want him to say it’s his intention for this team to host a playoff series in 2026.

Just having a statement like that out there would change a lot about the uneasy feeling everyone has when approaching the subject of improving this team via trade. Every idea someone in the media puts forward would have to pass this little reasoning test, does that move help this team host a playoff series in 2026? For that matter, every move whomever Bob hires as the next GM, or this one if that’s what he decides to do would also have to pass that little test.

There is no trade of Bryan Reynolds, or Oneil Cruz that is likely to help this team in 2026 host a playoff series.

Now that’s my made up goal, they could go with something vague like competitive, but for me, that’s too vague. Think about it, Aldi is competitive with Whole Foods right? Lexus and Mitsubishi? Yeah, I want something stronger, tangible. And it’s not to pin Bob to the wall or make up some dumb ultimatum that won’t ever happen, it’s just a guiding light, and that’s what the owner is supposed to do. Set the expectation, so everyone under you knows what they’re shooting for. I don’t even need him to get smarter, just make it clear what you expect.

2. Honestly Evaluate the 2025 Team

It’s not about squinting, it’s about going around the diamond, understanding your depth, evaluating areas you need to upgrade, in order to what? That’s right, the overall expectation. Be smart, don’t see a guy’s ceiling and consider it an eventuality.

Nothing you do should weaken this team from the 2025 version to the 2026 version. A good example here is, it’s a good thing you recognized that the team should upgrade over Connor Joe, but it’s probably not a good thing that you chose Pham or Frazier to do it, because even if they are an upgrade, it’s minimal. The next example could very well be Isiah Kiner-Falefa, I’m fine if you recognize a team trying to get better needs to upgrade here, unless your upgrade isn’t.

Don’t get oversold on a hot team and try to bolt on in the short term for this version of the team. You can bolt on, but if it doesn’t help 2026, it breaks the rules.

Don’t hold onto rentals of your own if you know damn well you want a youngster to take their playing time, that time you get to see them is the only good thing that comes from playing as terribly as you did at the beginning of the season. If you think a guy might be an answer next Spring, there’s a better chance of them actually being an upgrade if you’ve let them get the rookie beaten out of them in this year.

3. Before You Do Anything Else…

Do everything you can to sign Paul Skenes to an extension. I know, I know, laugh away. I don’t think this needs to be a lifetime contract, but I also see Paul as likely the only plausible reset button Bob Nutting could ever push.

From a PR standpoint, it would be the most unexpected and welcome thing he’s done here and it would alleviate a bit of the pressure along with the expectation that this team is going to stink in 4-5 years regardless of what they do. Those things matter, and if they have to defer money, or give him 5% of the team, I can’t see a world where it’s not worth the money. This has never been an owner who understands he has to spend to make money, and I get I’m asking him to do so here, but this window has a chance to slam shut right when you have a whole lot of other things ready if you don’t do it. Here’s the thing too, it doesn’t even have to get really expensive immediately. Just the news of this signing would probably help fan investment and you’ll likely make money from it before you start really paying for it.

Does this mean they can’t sign other guys, maybe, but this guy is the reason we believe there’s a foundation anyway right? Won’t that always be true?

4. Don’t Restrict or Hug Prospects

There has been an increased urgency to allow prospects to move through the system, and that’s welcome, but as you do so, it becomes more and more apparent that this team has a prospect hugging problem.

And I mean guys they simply don’t want to play themselves. It’s insane that Liover Peguero has been on the 40-man for 4 seasons and he’s gotten all of 237 plate appearances in the Bigs. It’s clear the Pirates don’t want to use him, but they refused to move him when he was getting interest. That’s prospect hugging, AKA, the fear of being wrong. The same exact problem this owner has when it comes to spending money to make more in return.

This isn’t the same argument as bring up the kids they can’t be worse, instead it’s hey, if a guy can’t crack this lineup after being on the 40-man 2-3 years, good chance they won’t, so wave goodbye to Bae, Peggy types. Trade them if you can. Use them as sweeteners with rentals. But please do use them, because when we sit down to start figuring out who needs protected this year, well, I’ll just say, they’re going one way or another.

This also goes for the top prospects. Sure, draw a line, no Bubba, no Griffin, I get it, so should everyone else, but don’t just hug onto Termarr if someone sees him as a really good get, let them. Yeah, this team needs offense, but if you can get a guy who helps in 25, 26 and 27 that you know is an MLB player right now, hey, be open to it.

If you choose to move a guy like Keller instead, fine, then you maybe add Barco to your can’t touch list, but again, it has to help 2026, so you better be sure you’ll be able to mask the absence of Mitch. I mean both in the rotation and in the lineup to make it less imperative you have the strongest rotation you could put together.

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Starter Spotlight: No Walks On Woo

7-4-2025 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Pirates fans have a lot to celebrate this Independence Day, fresh off a perfect 6-game home-stand, capped off with three straight shutouts over division rival, St. Louis Cardinals. 

They’ll look to take that good fortune on the road as they head west to face the dangerous Seattle Mariners and Mariners Cy Young candidate, Bryan Woo.
Woo broke out last season as he posted a 2.89 ERA over 22 starts and 121.1 innings pitched.

This season, Woo has the 12th best ERA among qualified AL starters (2.93) and 6th best WHIP (0.97) as he enters the day with a 7-4 record through 16 Seattle starts this year and one of the best fastballs in baseball (more on that later).

One thing Woo does with authority is limit free passes as only Rays Zack Littell, Tigers Tarik Skubal and Braves Spencer Schwellenbach have a low BB% than Woo.

Woo features a five-pitch mix with 4-seam and 2-seam fastballs in the mid-90s, a slider and changeup in the high-80s and a mid-80s sweeper – and he is looking to fill up the strike zone with all of them.

He mainly attacks lefties with his 4-seam fastball upstairs – with a successful .198 batting average against – while using the changeup/sinker/slider as his main secondary offerings.

Right-handed hitters are seeing a heavy dose of fastballs (75.4%) and struggling even more against Woo’s 4-seam with a .115 batting average against the offering.

Woo has been especially devastating at home, with opponents posting a .536 OPS in Seattle with just 9 extra base hits over 39 innings with Woo on the mound.

So what is the strategy against Woo? Be ready to swing. He throws first pitch strike 66% of the time and is in the zone with 56.3% of his pitches – but the fastball has some SERIOUS glove-side movement that can be tricky to pick up.

Expect strikes and be ready to pounce on fastballs early in counts because with Woo, the ball 4 call will be pretty rare.