4-1-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X
There’s a lot to like when your team doesn’t lose, and so far, ours hasn’t. I’m not going to spend today telling you how wrong you are for getting excited, but I’m going to try to provide some context for what we’re watching.
This is a good baseball team, and I’m more than happy to say it now, because right now, that’s what they are.
Now lets get after it!
1. 4-0 Look at ’em Go!
It’s pretty rare to start a season with a 4 game series to begin with, let alone win all 4 of those contests. The Pirates have been around for a very long time, and you need almost all that runway to catch up to the last time they did this, it was 1903 against the Reds. In fact, the oldest living person (we know about) on planet Earth wasn’t even born yet.
There was obviously a lot to like in that series, the offense never let you feel they were out of a game, even when they got down 5-0 before most sat down with their ham sandwich to watch on Sunday. It was easy to get the impression if they could get Bailey Falter out of there without much more damage the team probably could claw back against a bullpen they had already spent 3 days beating up on.
There will be a non-stop conga line of people tempering expectations today and honestly, they aren’t entirely wrong, but there is nothing about sweeping a 4 game set at any time of the year you can paint in a poor light.
Miami was a playoff team last year, and their starting rotation was absolutely destroyed by injury, leaving only 2 planned starters, one of whom, AJ Puk is a converted reliever. Everyone else they tossed after that in game 2 was a reliever who the team will surely stash right back there as the wounded warriors return. Their rotation and bullpen will both improve as they get healthy.
I don’t personally think the Marlins are headed back to the playoffs in 2024, but they certainly weren’t at the height of their powers for this series.
What really was important in this series, I think Derek Shelton said best when discussing his team’s performance. “They just continue to go. I mean, you’re talking about a team that’s a playoff team last year. That’s a really good club. So the thing that stands out to me is that we have 26 guys on our roster, and all 26 in the four-game series did something to help us win. I think that’s really important.”
He’s right, with the exception of Roansy Contreras who was on Paternity leave for the first 3 games of the series before replacing Jose Hernandez for Sunday’s tilt, everyone really did something positive to create the outcome they achieved. Even Bailey Falter slowed down his torrid pace of giving up runs for 3 innings after his first inning blow up.
We’re to the point where players being sent down like Jose Hernandez have performed. In his 2 games he earned his first career save and pitched 2 shutout innings of ball.
I mean, who goes for Colin Holderman when his rehab assignment wraps up, am I right?
Can’t possibly ask for a better start.
2. Have We Underappreciated Connor Joe?
Boy, I won’t speak for you, but I sure have.
He’s not an All Star, and with 3 more years of arbitration, he’s not even due to reach free agency until he’s 35 years old. Meaning if the Pirates want him, he’s all theirs for 3 more seasons. Potentially 5 years of meaningful baseball from a good utility player in exchange for a struggling pitching prospect, yup, sounds like a good deal to me.
What Connor Joe is though, is a baseball player, one who quite literally can play almost anywhere and competently.
Much better against left handed pitching, he’ll hold his own against righties too and he’ll never cheat an at bat. He’s not flashy defensively, I really think competent is the best description, but he’s smart. Put him in right field and he plays the angles and makes good decisions regardless of the ball park he’s in. He isn’t going to gun a guy out at home from the right field corner, but he just might pick up on a guy taking an extra wide turn and pluck him off by throwing behind him.
He’ll probably play that bounce off the wall so clean he gets the ball in faster than his arm says he should. At first base he isn’t Mark Grace, but he saved the game on Thursday by robbing Oneil Cruz of an error with a dive and stretch I still can barely believe I saw.
The Pirates have batted him all over the lineup, from leadoff to ninth and no matter where they put him the approach stays exactly the same. Take a good at bat, make them throw you a strike, put a good swing on it when they do.
I see people make fun of his hair on occasion, and I wonder if they know why he’s grown it the way he has. I wonder if they know how hard he fought to just make it to the league. He missed all of 2020 after being diagnosed with Testicular Cancer which had spread into one of his lungs. Chemotherapy would fight off the disease but cost him his hair, so yeah, his hair is long, maybe shush huh?
When the Pirates traded Nick Garcia for him from the Colorado Rockies, I was underwhelmed. Nick was a guy I was pretty high on as a prospect and this was a piece I felt you might want if your team was already stacked with talent, certainly not part of a young team that needed to get at bats for youngsters. I was wrong.
He wasn’t spectacular for the Pirates in 2023, but a steadying force that made all the other ill fitting pieces work better together by filling the role wherever he was asked. Taking that same approach at the plate all season he provided 11 HR, 42 RBI and a .760 OPS from a bench role and he looks poised to do more of the same this year.
Overlooking the importance of role players is a common mistake, and one I’m guilty of just like anyone else, but Connor is starting to make it hard to ignore that he isn’t just a guy you don’t yell about when he gets in the lineup, he’s becoming someone you assume will be, even if you don’t know where he’ll play or hit that day. Hell, you might even miss him when he takes a day off.
Connor is a victim of the expectations many of us had when he was acquired. A cheap player who probably isn’t a starter and hopefully gets pushed aside by more talented prospects at some point. He kinda still is that in many ways, it’s just becoming harder to imagine him being completely pushed out of the picture, because he’s earned more than most of us originally planned on him getting.
3. The Rotation Needs Time
I know people are loathed to wait for anything nowadays, but this has been true at the beginning of a new season for easily a decade now.
Starting pitchers when I was growing up were ready to be every bit themselves by the time Spring Training wound down. Given health, the goal was your starting five should all be able to give you a quality start, at least from a capability standpoint from the jump.
That’s no longer a given.
Now Starting pitchers are aiming to get stretched out to maybe 75 pitches, 4 or 5 innings and if their first start of the season goes 100% swimmingly you might see them go 90+ pitches, 5-7 innings, and maybe their second start you’ll see those numbers start to feel “normal”.
Some guys haven’t even reached peak velocity yet.
Before you jump down my throat, I’m not trying to tell you Bailey Falter is going to get a ton better, instead I’m saying the rotation as a whole probably needs a few weeks to really start showing you where they are. Even while writing the Series Preview for the Washington series I laughed as I typed in the one game stats for the starters who had them.
Early on, it’s safe to say the bullpen has bailed out the rotation, and that makes sense, you should expect the bullpen guys are more prepared to be the best version of themselves as opposed to the starters. In our case, we expect that to be the standard for a minute here anyway, but what we saw in Miami isn’t a clear picture of what they’ll be either.
I saw some people attributing Mitch Keller’s start to nerves, but really, he just wasn’t hitting his spots, and while he has good enough stuff to get away with it, even in the zone, it eats into his efficiency and a good hitter is going to smoke a meatball against anyone.
I don’t think time is going to lead to you feeling the rotation is great and there’s no need for that Skenes guy or you suddenly become A-OK with Falter being part of it, but I do think you need to see a little bit of a run before you can definitively say who is and who isn’t a problem.
Today we’ll see Marco Gonzales be the last of the original 26-man roster to make his first start, well, save Contreras, and he’s probably got a bigger hill to climb to build back up than his counterparts. For the most part the first four in this rotation will likely stay in the rotation through April. I could see Falter and Ortiz flipping, or even Quinn Priester getting a call to replace him, but we’ll check back in on this come May and I bet we have some more educated takes on how this rotation might evolve.
It might very well time up with some big replacements making their way to Pittsburgh. Everyone and their mother says it’s a long season, but there’s a reason, it really friggin’ is. Fans have no say in how long teams give their players to warm to the task, but rest assured, you’re gonna wait.
4. Your Preconceived Thoughts on How the Pirates Will Handle Paul Skenes is Probably Wrong
I expect to play the misdirection, non-committal game with coaches and GMs, its part of the game. I fully understand why everyone who’s media facing would tread lightly when addressing Skenes arrival time, and how they’re stretching him out, what exactly are those boxes he has to check?
Behind the scenes though, I’ll go right ahead and say right here and right now, what they’re doing with him is about saving early innings in the hopes he has them to give later. Paul won’t last to whatever this year’s Super-2 projected date is, and by the time he makes his next start in AAA, they’ll have already surpassed the time it’ll take to secure the extra year of team control.
This team is ready to win, and that means they’re ready to stop making every move with a prospect about how long they get to keep them and more about how soon they can truly help them win.
They showed you this with Jared Jones. I told you this with Henry Davis, and I wasn’t guessing, just like I’m not now.
Bob can still be a terrible owner, and if you must a horrible person, but he’s also a guy who hired a GM, listened to his plan and has gotten out of the way as he makes decisions on how to push the gas pedal down and when. That doesn’t mean Cherington has no budget, far from it, but it does mean when it comes to deploying his talent, they aren’t going to follow the cookie cutter path of squeezing every ounce of team control for as cheap as possible out of them if the talent is ready to win at the top level.
We’ll see this continue with Termarr Johnson next year as he again won’t need added to the 40-man roster, but as soon as they think he’s ready, rest assured, he’ll get a shot if he’s earned it and they have a need.
You don’t have to believe the owner is changing a thing to acknowledge from calling up Henry faster than any 1:1 in quite some time to starting non 40-man player Jared Jones make the team out of camp, this isn’t just a waiting game based on saving a dollar.
And he’ll make it near impossible to keep some of these guys for what it’s worth, but don’t let it poison your thoughts on how this time and these players will be handled. Cherington is not married to the belief he can’t make a move today because it’ll create a tough situation in 2029.
5. Deeper Than We Thought?
Is it possible the bullpen is even deeper than we believed it would be? I put a little red herring to this in point 1, but when Colin Holderman is healthy, for real, who goes?
Ryder Ryan with that sick 2 seam fastball? Hunter Stratton who hasn’t really had a bad outing since the first time he put on a Pirates uniform? I mean, those two are likely the guys who wouldn’t be here if Holderman and Mlodzinski were healthy all Spring, but now, man, that’s a tough call right?
Now, just like with the starters, we could feel differently within a couple weeks, but either way, that’s some really nice stuff to have a phone call away right?
Luis Ortiz has been unbelievable, I mean he still doesn’t always know where the ball is going, but neither do the hitters, and early on, he’s thriving in this role. Bednar is still trying to shake of the cobwebs. Chapman looks as dominant as ever, Borucki looks like whatever he figured out last year stuck with him.
Sending Jose Hernandez down when Contreras was reactivated probably wasn’t an easy choice.
Injury will thin the herd, it always does, but to lose three big pieces like Mlodzinski, Holderman and Moreta and still feel you have to tuck MLB talent in the minors, man, we’re set up for some really good stuff from the stop squad.
Bailey Falter doesn’t just have a target on his back because he’s low man on the starting totem pole, he’s the only pitcher who hasn’t looked like he could potentially be part of the solution, somewhere.
This is really good stuff, and there are very much so some really tough decisions coming. Guys going to the minors who have done nothing but shove for a couple games.
4 games guys, it’s hard to feel anything but positive, but when you didn’t feel they’d be as good at the beginning as they will at the end, a start like this can get you thinking bigger pretty quick.
Let’s have another great week of Bucco Baseball!