The Pirates made a couple roster moves yesterday, one of which really took me aback.
Jose Hernandez, a rule 5 selection who performed well last year for the Bucs was optioned to Indianapolis. This was a little surprising but more so because of the injury concerns they’ve had in the pen than him actually being sent down. In fact, before the season several of us had him starting in AAA. Signing Chapman further cemented it for many, but injuries piled and it became a very back of the mind thought.
Even so, that wasn’t the controversial move.
Liover Peguero was optioned to AAA and in so doing, essentially decided Alika Williams will make the club as a bench infielder.
So let’s tackle all of this, from every angle.
First, this isn’t how I would have gone. I’d have started Peguero and used Jared Triolo to bounce around, the thinking being they’d get enough at bats for both in the process. That’s me, that’s where I was, and that’s where I largely still am, but as always, there are other ways to see it, other reasons to consider and I want to make sure I cover them all.
As we go through this, keep that paragraph in mind, I’ve thought through this and I still land where I did, but thinking through all these other things, at the very least I can at least swallow that there is grey here to play with.
What About Your Best 26?
This is a battle cry that is very hard to argue with. Why wouldn’t you want your best 26 players on the roster? Especially when you’re talking about players with no service time issues, graduated prospect status, no real incentive for the team to hide them in the minors for financial gain.
Again, this plays right into my way of thinking for filling this role, but I’d also say this really should be more about deploying your best unit, not 26 players. In this case the Pirates think at least early on here that they’d prefer Peguero get regular at bats in AAA and are fine with Alika having splinters in his backside.
Best 26? No. Best deployment of assets? They sure think so right?
How Can You Try to Win and Roster Alika Williams?
Do you remember Clint Barmes? Rafael Belliard? Defensive specialists who didn’t play much. Late inning replacement, spot starter types. A support role.
It was my belief they would probably rest Ke’Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz regularly, one for the back issues that crop up every year and one for the continued slow walking of his return from injury. Another reason I thought there was plenty of room for both Peggy and Triolo on the roster.
So either the Pirates don’t plan on a ton of that rest being necessary early on, or, they really are very concerned about the up the middle defense.
Alika isn’t ever going to be a bopper, but he can top out at what I’d consider a defensive specialist who makes contact. He’s never going to be a player you get stoked to see in the lineup, but in this role, that might just be ok.
If they use Alika the way I hope they would, he plays maybe 1 start a week at short and maybe comes in late defensively to gobble up ground balls.
What I have a hard time getting past is they’d almost have to use him more. Jared Triolo will need to cover 3B on occasion and he himself will need a blow once a week right? Again, this is why I land back on there was room to keep Peggy.
Peggy Was Out Much of Spring
Instead of copying and pasting this into my own words, Craig Toth did a fine job making this point.
Peguero has played just once since March 13th due to an illness, and only got a couple at bats. Get built back up/up to speed again. If he plays/hits the way he did at the beginning of Spring, he shouldn’t be down too long. #LetsGoBucshttps://t.co/HlJYCN8dNk
This is a great point, that honestly I didn’t see. I lost track of how much time Peguero had missed, and his AB totals aren’t all that much lower than his competitors for the position.
In other words here, Craig is suggesting here potentially the Pirates themselves would rather go the way most of us saw them going, but Liover needs to work a bit, just getting back to game speed.
First, that’s some flu that was going around right? Seems like the guys who got it were knocked out for weeks.
This theory and reason has legs.
He Needs Consistent At Bats, So AAA it is
I can get behind this argument for a whole lot of players….but not Peguero and here’s why.
Peggy has over 1000 plate appearances from the AA-AAA levels and he’s been on the 40-man for 3 years.
In that time he’s had 217 plate appearances in MLB with the Pirates.
We’re beyond that kind of territory on this player in my mind friends. I just can’t play this consistent at bat game with everyone. I should also note, he’s still only 23, and I don’t mean like he turns 24 in a week either, he’ll be 23 this entire season. He’s been a name for a long time in this system because he needed added to the 40-man early, he was part of the return for the Pirates most valuable asset to trade Starling Marte, and largely, he’s performed.
At his age, it’s fair to expect he has a lot of room to grow, but I don’t think that growing will happen at the AAA level, and further, he’s going to run out of time to contribute here if they mess with him and let Cheng or Johnson catch up. Make no mistake, they’re both a-comin’.
If nothing else, you’d get more trading a player who has cracked and stuck in MLB than a prospect who has 1300 at bats in advanced minor league baseball. They could tank his value and usefulness in one flail swoop if they aren’t careful here, not to mention, burning another option on a guy who may very well need to have them in his pocket in a year or two so you don’t lose him for nothing.
Triolo Beat Him for the Job!
OK, I mean you know I love me some Triolo. In fact he’s the only infielder I called as a lock to make the club before camp started. He’s versatile, healthy and productive. I’m happy for him, every player would prefer to be the guy at 1 position than bounce all over wondering where you might be tomorrow, if you’ll be somewhere tomorrow that is.
He has earned it. And regardless of how long it lasts, or how the team plans to move forward when Peguero is deemed ready, or even when Ji-hwan Bae is healthy or if Gonzales starts looking like his pedigree would suggest he could, maybe Jared will find himself back to the super utility player many of us envisioned. There are still a ton of ways this could all play out, but for now, Triolo in my mind has shown more at the big league level than any of the other alternatives.
This won’t be the last difficult choice this team makes, in fact, they only stand to get more difficult, with bigger names potentially getting iced out. A deeper team will lead to MLB players filling the coffers in AAA. As many as you can anyhow before you’re forced to turn them loose or trade them. It’s a difficult dance, hard for fans to watch. You get attached to guys, convince yourself someone is part of this team for a long time based on a good stretch or year only to see them supplanted.
This team is going to have a lot of moving parts, just is. I can see a ton of up and down movement this year, both for the purposes of meeting the innings demand, and, they have a lot of kids who they have to work through.
It’s probably not fair to ask the franchise that has provided a total of 4 seasons where they finished over .500 since 1992 to step up and do the heavy lifting for a down period in Pittsburgh Sports, but here we are.
The Steelers and Penguins both live in cap leagues, and unless you just can’t identify talent or stubbornly hold fast to methods of being victorious that no longer work, you should never really see either of them fall off the face of the earth. Rebuilding in cap leagues that also restrict how little you can spend is a different animal, designed to keep any team from overtly stinking for a decade. It doesn’t always equate to that mind you, but teams that fail can’t really blame the league and you also can’t point to their cheapness, at worst they’re paying 20 million less than the top spenders in the league.
The Pirates live in a league that has no such control. They have no impactful rules to keep the top spenders within shouting distance of the teams that don’t spend. That leaves the door open for an owner such as ours to decide taking very few risks and stinking for 5 years in an effort to be good for 4 or 5 is A-OK. Thing is, had they even been this successful, meaning they brought you a winner every 5 years like clockwork, most fans would probably accept it as their lot in life, but 4 out of 30+? Yeah, not so much.
I’ve never told fans they should enjoy this process, even as I myself have. Team building to me is fascinating, and while I’d prefer to just know my team is in a league that they’ve got a shot to win in every single year, I also happen to appreciate all the thought and effort that goes into this process. As I said, I also know it’s not for everyone.
Thing is though, the Pirates are finally ready to leave the wilderness, and as much as I loathe the structure of Major League Baseball, it’ll also set this team up for being well clear of those blinding woods for the next 4-5 years minimally, even if they don’t extend a single other player than they already have.
They may not get there this year, meaning over .500, but they won’t miss it by much if they don’t. The arrow is pointed up now and new players coming up officially have to be a better option than what is already here.
This just feels like a good time to look back on the path they’ve taken, ingest what it’s provided and start to judge whether it’ll be enough to get them to the next step, the playoffs.
I’ll have more on where I think they’ll land in my season preview, and I touched on some of my predictions for the season on The Pirates Fan Forum last night. So check that out if you just can’t wait, suffice to say 2024 is the first season since Ben Cherington came on board where I can legitimately look at the club and feel it isn’t insane to think they’ll crack .500 and in this division, that just might be close enough to see them push in some chips at the deadline.
They aren’t in the class of Atlanta, LA, San Fran, Philly, Arizona, maybe even San Diego, but they are in that next class of teams that could get a spot like the Cubs, Mets, teams like that who 10 games over might be the plateau for the season.
The starting rotation was the most concerning part of the team as we began the offseason, and it remains the most concerning part. What makes it different is the amount of options they have to do something about it should whomever they choose to start the season not pan out.
The lineup looks much stronger. There are very few spots where as a pitcher you can rest or try to get to. Work around Cruz, ok, face Reynolds. Nibble and let both of them reach base, ok, here’s Hayes, and Cutch, and Jack, and Henry, there just aren’t breaks. Even the bottom of the order should threaten. In other words, when they go to break and show you the next three due up on TV, you won’t often feel you can go make a sandwich and pee.
Sneaking into the playoffs, finishing over .500, competing for the division title but narrowly missing, those aren’t “winning” here in Pittsburgh, if they were nobody would think anything is wrong with the Steelers. I say that because the Pirates are poised for winning more than they have and doing something that for this franchise is very much so a step in the right direction. Next year, we could be having more conversations about expecting more, but this year has to happen first and while I feel they’ll achieve the very definition of “winning” in baseball, meaning finishing over .500, it won’t give them the mantle of savior of the city.
If anything, they’ll achieve not being forgotten as an entity to the masses of fans who only look in their direction when the 6 O’clock news tells them it’s worth looking.
This is an important year for the franchise and this roster reconstruction to be sure, but it’s going to likely be a bit of a stretch to think they’ll be seen as more than a team that played OK.
You’ll know different, because you know there’s more coming, and you know how soon. But it’ll take more, and more importantly stacking competitive seasons before this town wraps their arms back around this franchise.
Won’t it be great welcoming back all those fans who stopped watching in 2018? It’ll be like greeting a couple hundred people who just got off a time machine. They’ll have no idea where Jack Suwinski came from, no clue how they got this Jared Jones guy either. Who’s this Martin Perez fella? Hey, where’s Joe Musgrove?
I can’t wait. lol
Point is, don’t try to sell this team as Pittsburgh’s savior, it’s not, not yet anyway, and never forget the other teams have the ability to turn on a dime, because their league’s don’t require anything more than a front office that’s smart.
I’m starting to feel increasingly like for some reason Pittsburgh fans have decided to hate on each other. Steelers fans make fun of Pirates and Penguins fans because one is aging out and the other rarely has mattered. Penguins fans for the longest time were the ONLY winners in town at least if you count championships as the real definition of winning and they had a record setting playoff run. They’d crap on the Steelers for only making the playoffs, or barely surpassing .500.
How about we just be Pittsburgh fans. The teams support each other, maybe we fans should do the same. And as Pirates fans, I wouldn’t get too high on your horse even when this team is competing over this next stretch, because you can’t forget this league and this owner unless things change are more than a good bet, they’re a guarantee we’ll find our way back down the totem pole before too long.
I love all our sports teams, I want them all to win. Maybe because I was a teenager back in the early 90’s, I have actual memories of all three being in the conversation yearly. But as a Bucco fan, I for one am not planning on acting like this franchise is looking down their nose at the other two, no matter what happens, that stuff simply doesn’t do it for me.
This season will be a step, one that will set this franchise up for if not open their next competitive window. Enjoy it for what it is. Enjoy it for what you went through and put up with to get here. Enjoy it without having to pretend your rooting interests are superior to others.
And lastly, be as welcoming as you can. Know there will be people around who haven’t been paying attention and they aren’t going to get your Kai Tom joke. Oh, that one dude who’s been popping all over your timeline to tell you they’ll never do …., yeah, slap him around online for fun but when Betty from Dormont jumps on Facebook and asks where Cole Tucker is, maybe don’t start out by telling her how dumb she is huh?
The next good stretch of Pirates baseball very likely starts this year, let’s allow ourselves to feel rewarded for our suffering, instead of dreading the suffering returning. They’ll be in an at least OK spot for half a decade without much more than time and growth. Let’s try not to punish others for deciding they’d prefer to not suffer, instead just popping back in when they hear it’s ok to do so.
3-20-24 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on Twitter
The Cubs had a bit of a surprising rise in 2023. Not to say that they were expected to be “bad.” That certainly was not the expectation. They did manage to exceed most prognostications and in so doing, they have accelerated their “rebuild” quite a bit. Chicago benefitted from a lot of things going well. Justin Steele & Cody Bellinger performing like legitimate stars, the farm system performing well, and a terrific draft really went a long way to changing how this organization as a whole is/was perceived. The question now is just how close to being a true contender are they? Let’s take a look at who is in the fold on the North Side.
Pitching
Justin Steele – Arguably the biggest breakout starting pitcher in all of baseball from Steele hurled 173.1 IP putting up a 16-5 record and am NL Central best 4.9 fWAR. Steele will look to repeat his success, and he is well positioned to do it. While it is worth noting that he is really a 2-pitch pitcher, throwing a FF/SL 96% of the time (62.6/33.9), the pairing is good enough to think he will be a 3+ fWAR starter in 2024.
Shota Imanaga – Imanaga is a prime offseason FA acquisition for the Cubbies. Coming over to the Major Leagues in the shadow of fellow import, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, I am very intrigued by what Imanaga has done this Spring. In 9.2 IP Imanga has put up a crazy 41.5% K-BB%. It must be mentioned that his 9 K appearance was versus a HORRIBLE Oakland lineup – but his profile looks to be a bit stronger than his initial stateside scouting report had indicated. He looks like an exciting player and his transition to the Majors will be fun to watch.
Kyle Hendricks – Kyle Hendricks is here to limit hard contact, command his arsenal, & pitch a bunch of innings. While he didn’t necessarily eat a ton of innings in 2022 & 2023, he should be back to doing so in 2024. Nothing exciting here, but he is a solid rotation piece and a veteran arm.
Jordan Wicks – 21st overall selection in the 2021 MLB draft, Wicks is set to claim a full time rotation spot for the Cubs in 2024. Based on his debut in 2023 & his Spring thus far, Wicks sort of has the look of a left handed Kyle Hendricks. Relies on his changeup/four seam/sinker, but he worked a 6 pitch mix last year. Wicks should be a safe back-end of the rotation piece, at least as safe as a young pitcher can be.
Hayden Wesneski – Wesneski was a popular breakout pick prior to 2023. He did not break out. He was quite bad. Struggling with command and getting hit too hard when he did find the plate, it was a bad year for Wesneski. He is not a lock for a rotation spot, but he has had an interesting Spring in 2024. His command has ticked up and the BB rate is down to just 2.4% in 9 IP. He is worth watching because his sweeper is devastating. Opposing hitters hit just .140 with a .186 wOBA against the pitch, if the control takes a step forward and his fastball can play better, he might be in line to take a big step in the right direction.
Bullpen Bullet Points
Adbert Alzolay – After stepping into the closer role in 2023 Alzolay was able to actualize some of this prior potential. Has a devastating slider and works three different fastball variations in. Has the look of a solid back-end piece.
Hector Neris – Neris comes over to Chicago from two successful seasons in Houston. Has strong strikeout stuff and is one of the premier set-up men in the league.
Julian Merriweather – Big time K stuff from Merriweather. A slider that generated 45.3% whiffs and a FF that averages 98.1. Textbook set-up/closer profile. Mark Leither Jr – Leiter had a spectacular 2023 racking up 28 holds. He is again having a terrific Spring and should help round out this overall strong bullpen.
Hitters
Cody Bellinger – After a long wait as a free agent, Bellinger is back in the mix for the Cubbies. 2023 saw Bellinger totally revive his career. He will look to continue this in He has pretty radically changed his game from when he was a young power hitting monster for the Dodgers. He exceeded his xwOBA by a large margin (.370 vs .327), but the rest of his profile seems to support that he should continue to produce at a good clip given his strong QoC metrics. It is a bit uncertain where he will play, 1B/OF/DH, but it seems that he will get reps at all of these spots to some degree.
Seiya Suzuki – Suzuki had a slow start to 2023, but ultimately finished off a great sophomore season. The underlying data suggests that 2024 could be another step forward for Suzuki too. He hits the ball hard (91.4 EV) & gets to a lot of hard contact. Suzuki will remain a top of the order fixture in Chicago for the immediate future.
Ian Happ – Happ is a rock steady offensive player. Does not have an incredibly flashy game, but is a solid hitter with a stellar approach. One downfall is his defensive prowess is average to slightly below. It is hard not to like Happ as a player and he is locked into a leadoff spot for 2024.
Michael Busch – Finally freed from captivity in Los Angeles, the baseball world will finally get to see what Michael Busch can do. Busch was poor in his MLB opportunities so far, but the AAA data is very encouraging. He has feasted on fastballs and puts up great quality of contact metrics across the board. Some swing & miss against secondaries is present, but he has a very similar player profile to a Max Muncy type of lower BA, higher OBP, slugger. Now he just has to prove it.
Nico Hoerner – Hoerner is like Luis Arraez light with the stick. He does not hit the ball particularly hard, does not barrel the ball often, but he makes elite contact and rarely whiffs. On top of this, he has elite speed and plays some of the best defense at the keystone in the entire sport. It isn’t flashy, but he is a very, very good baseball player.
Dansby Swanson – Perennially underrated, Swanson has no really flashy tools other than his shortstop defense. Average to above tools elsewhere in his toolbox make him capable of posting high fWAR seasons though. He is sitting firmly in his prime and should project to bat near the middle of a surprisingly fun lineup.
Christopher Morel – The young slugger is set to get full-time at bats while manning the hot corner in 2024. One of the more exciting players in the NLC, Morel needs to make approach/whiff gains to make the big leap to star level. It is no guarantee that he can do it, but the 37% whiff rate is all that is holding him back from unlocking true star upside. Really one of the more underrated players in the entire game, not just the division.
Farmhands
Pete Crow-Armstrong – PCA looked poised to break camp with the big league CF job until the Cubs re-upped Bellinger. PCA will open in AAA, but make no mistake, he is a tremendous prospect. Had an underwhelming MLB debut in 2023, but his defense and speed will give him a high floor once he secures an every day role. I personally consider him a top 10-20 prospect in the game.
Cade Horton – The number 7 selection in 2022. Horton will most likely make his Major League debut sometime in 2024. Horton hurled 88.1 IP across 3 levels and shoved against all competition. His skills should translate to AAA and then to the Show. Appears to have a #2 starter or package of skills.
Matt Shaw – Matt Shaw was drafted at 13 overall just last July. He cruised all the way to AA and handled the minor leagues like an advanced college hitter is supposed to. He possesses average to above-average skills across the board with a chance to get to plus game power. It is very possible that Shaw ends up in Cubbie blue late this season.
Owen Cassie – The calling card for Cassie is grown man raw power. The downside through the minor leagues was the common trade off of high K rates. Cassie was something of a Spring Training standout where he displayed an improved approach and cut his K rate down to 25%. Small sample, but this will be the key to him becoming an everyday Major Leaguer.
Kevin Alcántara – While not exactly on the level of Oneil Cruz or Elly de La Cruz – Alcántara nearly fits the mold checking in as a 6’6” tooled up mutant. The Jaguar is my personal favorite Cubs prospect. With near top of the scale raw power & above-average to plus speed, there is a lot to like here. As is typical with this kind of player there are concerns with the hit tool/approach. In 2023 the K rate stayed at a very promising 23.8% at A+ but ballooned to 33.3% in AA.
Moises Ballesteros – Ballesteros is one of the slightly lesser heralded catcher prospects in the game, but I believe that this changes in 2024. Making it all the way to AA as a 19 year old, Ballesteros possesses a strong approach and makes pretty high quality of contact, in fact he sports an impressive 90th% exit velocity (104.9) that supports the fact that he will likely be an above-average power producer as he ages. This type of profile might really boom very soon.
Ben Brown – Ben Brown appeared to be on the verge of making the Majors in 2023 and then he scuffled upon reaching AAA. He possesses very good stuff but also command issues. Chicago may be toying with moving Brown to the bullpen as he only made one Spring Training start. He will almost certainly be a Major League player, role TBD.
This Chicago team is put together well and positioned to be a challenger in the Central. From the outset of the season I think that Cubs have a compelling case to expect to be in the running to be division champs. Strong line up, competent pitching staff, plenty of bullpen juice, and one of the best farm systems in the entire league. It will be very fun to check in on this group on a month to month basis.
March is an incredibly busy time for me. Oh, yeah it’s Spring Training and there’s certainly lots to cover on here and on my show, but in my real job, it’s crunch time, so finding a way to slip off to Florida doesn’t happen for me as often as I’d like. This year we were able to make it happen, and man, it’s been too long.
It was my wife’s first time, and we stayed with Craig Toth, formerly of this site, currently of Bucs in the Basement Podcast and also current very good friend, about ten minutes by old fashioned hoof to the stadium.
You remember that guy right? One thing we both felt was funny, at least 5 people saw us together and assumed we were hashing out something. We tried to tell you all Craig just wanted to step away from writing, not being friends. I’ll say this though, I had forgotten how much I absolutely love just talking baseball with Craig. When he was writing here, it just happened organically.
Not things like I’ve got this source, you have this one, let’s compare notes, just actual baseball. How a guy’s swing looks, how a pitch shape was coming along, positional battles, players who have impressed us. There’s just nothing that can really replace talking baseball with a good friend.
I’m lucky, that’s literally what my podcast the Pirates Fan Forum is, but Craig and I have always had a way of pushing back on what the other saw as THE path and it’s part of what has always helped me keep in check.
We arrived Tuesday Morning with a game scheduled that day at 1:05, it seemed like a quick check in followed by a short walk to the stadium made sense. But, rental services being what they are, of course we couldn’t check in on time, so my trooper of a wife and I grabbed a great breakfast and changed out of our Wintery Pittsburgh gear in the car and zipped over to the game.
Truly great bite to eat, and yes, we started hitting the booze early. Well, you try getting your hands on Jai Alai in Pittsburgh!
Now, the game. Man, what an atmosphere, it was loaded with good players and those good players did good things.
The Bucs beat up on the Braves travel team that day with Cruz and Suwinski hitting homers. Cruz in the first home at bat of the day, oppo. Spring Training hero Billy McKinney did too of course. I will say the Pirates really got to Braves starter and expected member of their rotation Reynaldo Lopez, he just couldn’t find the strike zone and when he did they hit him.
There’s always something you can take from a game, even an exhibition, even when one team barely brings a team.
We were tired, so we went and checked in and talked Craig into going out for dinner even though he was on death’s door himself and we staggered home for an early night in, hoping to recover quickly.
I promised my wife we’d just have a fun day bouncing around on Wednesday, and we did. We headed over to Anna Maria Island which took quite some time, you can’t drive 2 miles down there without it taking 45 minutes if it’s at the wrong time. Beautiful, great meal at Dock Side with the best seat in the house, and next time I promised my beautiful wife we’ll stay over there instead.
That night we headed back to town and hung out at a can’t miss for some drinks and watched the game a bit going on down in Dunedin.
This whole time we’ve been running into fans of the show, or the site, I even had someone ask me how Josh Booth from Bridge 2 Buctober Podcast managed to not get burnt to a crisp when he was down there.
That stuff was a blast, and the entire day was like that. A farmer’s market we met someone, Motorworks a few people, even on the beach we saw a family with a giant Pirates themed setup and talked some ball.
I’ll get to Thursday next, but before I do, let’s talk a bit about just how very into all of this everyone we met was. I mean, when the Pirates start bringing in the guys with no names on their backs, you’d hear five people, and I say that specifically because men and women alike knew who those guys were, knew their careers, knew their chances to move up this year, everything.
It was incredible to witness. You could turn in any direction, round any corner and run into someone who could go off on any subject you brought up about the Pirates.
We met this nice lady Lynda at the new Smash Burger stand in the concourse, didn’t know me from Adam, but seating was limited so she asked if she could sit with us. Ended up missing 2 innings of baseball talking about her observations about Henry Davis behind the plate. If you’re a baseball nerd and don’t classify yourself as an introvert, go, have fun, it’s like you’ve lived your whole life in a foreign land. Sure you know the language, but then you travel somewhere and hear your native tongue being spoken all around you. Suddenly I didn’t have to explain underlying rules before saying “they won’t do this or that”. Just a great experience.
Thursday was always going to be the feature day for me. First I met up with Craig over at Pirates City to watch some batting practice and there was supposed to be a scrimmage at 1 that was cancelled.
I left around 12:30 and headed back to get packed up, Meg and I planned to leave right after the baseball for Tampa as we had an early flight in the morning.
Two games at LECOM, starting with the Pirates and Orioles who brought their A squad at 3:05. Fun game, well pitched by Marco Gonzales who went 5 giving up one run and striking out 4 but alas the Bucs dropped that contest 5-2.
The night cap started at 7, and for Craig and I at least, it was the feature of the entire trip. The Spring Breakout game between the Orioles and Pirates top prospects. The Pirates did prevail in this one, even though half the place emptied out.
Fun event.
Paul Skenes, Termarr Johnson, Hunter Barco, Braxton Ashcraft, Cheng, Forrester, Brannigan, Bubba Chandler, Lonnie White, man it was something. Paul pumping 101, 101, 102 to start off his one inning and triumphantly marching around the mound with a fist pump after whiffing Jackson Holliday, it was everything we hoped it would be.
A quick walk back to the place, loaded the car and straight to Tampa we went.
I probably didn’t get a chance to really sit down and process the entire trip until maybe Sunday, but my god we just packed in a ton of stuff for a 3 day trip.
Next time we’ll stay longer. We’ll probably stay on the island too. But the environment, the conversations, all of it is so great. If it’s within your means, I highly encourage you to give it a shot.
No matter how much you read, no matter how much attention you pay, unless you go, you have no idea the kind of production Spring Training is. Across multiple sites, hundreds of players are following detailed plans laid out to the minute for every individual.
There’s bussing of players, scrimmages both internally and externally. guys you haven’t seen play are pitching and hitting off site, like Martin Perez on Tuesday at Pirates City.
Seeing all that action, man I’ll tell you what, I was beat from watching baseball from 10-9, most of these guys are actively playing it in some form easily that long. To fully appreciate what’s happening down there, you really do have to just see it.
I know this piece is a little different, but thanks for letting me go on and on about it. This trip meant a lot to me, and I’ll treasure it forever. Can’t wait to get back.
This week I’m going to write up a nice story about my trip to Bradenton. I have a bunch of pictures I took with my big lens, and stories to tell about the experience, but for this edition of 5 thoughts, let’s just keep it about some of the very real choices this team has to make and soon.
Lets Go!
1. Jared Jones is for Real
Most of you who read my stuff know how much I thought of Jared Jones long before this offseason even began. To be completely blunt, I thought he could have and maybe should have debuted last year. Hindsight is always 20/20 and none of us could know exactly how far the training staff had deemed Jared should push things in 2023.
He topped out at 126.1 innings for the campaign spread between Altoona and Indianapolis. The year before he only threw 122.2 in Greensboro and his first year in Bradenton he tossed 66.
Ideally you’d like to see more progression than an addition of roughly 4 innings from year to year, but again, we don’t know everything involved there. What I can say is that’s an average innings per outing that comes up just shy of 5 innings.
These are two things we can expect to see from Jared this year. For starters, you can go ahead and assume his innings target for the season will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 150. A 25 inning jump at this stage is appropriate, and yes, I leave room for the team to decide he could go farther, not unlike last year with Johan Oviedo. That said, Johan Oviedo might also serve as a cautionary tale to both the team, and maybe, just maybe, some fans who simply aren’t going to want to hear what I say next.
Jared Jones won’t spend all year on the MLB club.
I specifically say it that way because, the time he spends off the MLB roster doesn’t have to be right at the beginning of the season.
See, that innings restriction, that’s the alpha in this totem pole of importance. He can start the season up here and they can allow him to throw 4-5 innings and build up, ultimately getting to the 6th and 7th, but at some point they’ll have to play games, dare I say, manipulate his innings count. And yes, it will also help serve their service time wishes.
All of this assumes he looks the part too. There won’t be any need for finding a way to create a valley in his throwing in the middle of the season like they did with Roansy a few years back if he isn’t performing. The alternative to a mid season slow down is to just flatly shut him off sometime in August or September.
The crappy thing as a fan here is that his innings restriction is going to line up perfectly with this team achieving service time victories, but just because an action creates a selfish outcome, you can’t discount the very real need to serve both masters here.
In other words, the Pirates might very well manipulate his service time, but it’ll coincide with controlling his innings count. There are options, such as they could move him to the pen or even start him there, I just feel they’ll want to keep developing him as a starter and that requires learning to deal with the schedule a starter lives with, the ups and downs, the in between throwing program, all of the side stuff we don’t think about that’s different for a starter vs a pen arm.
To me, he’s earned a shot this year, and if I’m the Pirates, I take the hot hand I know I’m going to use eventually this season and see how far he rides it, you can always send him down, in fact, the way I see it, you’ll have to at some point regardless.
I know this player is going to be encircled in hot takes all season long, but I hope this at least serves as a bit of the reason behind the obvious. The Pirates have one pitcher you can expect to throw close to 200 Innings in 2024 and his name is Mitch, that’s the list. Raising this kid is in fact going to take a village.
I could say 99% of this for Paul Skenes. Maybe a few more innings could be in his plan, but trust me, he won’t touch 200.
2. Bryan Reynolds…Starting Right Fielder?
Sure looks like that’s where they’re headed.
As recently as December of 2023, Derek Shelton told the Athletic they weren’t even considering moving Bryan to Right Field, and now that they’ve signed Michael Taylor it sounds like they plan to deploy Jack in Left when Michael is in Center, which of course moves Reynolds to right.
Reynolds doesn’t seem to mind…
“I don’t feel like it’s too different from left,” said Reynolds. “Don’t have to cover as much ground at PNC. Today I got some balls in the gap I kinda under-ran, so I just gotta get used to the flight of the ball over there, but I felt good.”
“I don’t think it’s a major thing like going center to a corner. It’s just a corner to a corner,” Reynolds said. “The spin of the ball is gonna be a little different coming from righties and stuff, but just need BP reps and game reps.”
Derek Shelton said this was now part of the plan this season, which took me by surprise given he had just denied the assertion a couple months ago.
“We had talked to Bryan about it at the beginning of camp that there was a chance there may be some times he would play right,” Derek Shelton said. “It’s funny that we actually signed Michael because Bryan was scheduled to play right today regardless.”
It makes some sense, the Pirates felt Jack Suwinski was their best defensive outfielder, hence being the starting center fielder, so when they bring in a superior center fielder, it stands to reason in PNC Park you would want your next best in left field and Bryan arguably has a superior arm so putting him in Right isn’t insane.
I wouldn’t recommend moving a guy like Bryan around from one side to the other game after game, so in my mind, I’d prepare for him to at least play the majority at one of them. If I had to guess right now, I think we’re looking at some bouncing in 2024.
3. Second Base is Heating Up
I’m not changing everything here, and I’m not declaring a “winner” for the starting gig. What I am ready to declare is that Jared Triolo will have a spot.
Ji-hwan Bae who I truly didn’t count in this battle is injured, so he’s out. That leaves Nick Gonzales and Liover Peguero battling it out for a spot and I don’t think they can keep both, in fact, I’d think the one who doesn’t make it will be the nailed on starter in AAA.
Nick has had 35 PA, hit .242 and his OPS is .710. Liover has had 27 PA, hit .292 and his OPS is .829.
Both have limited strikeouts. Both have played 2B and SS.
It’s closer than people think but I gave Peguero the edge before camp, and I think he has it by that edge at this point. That said, Gonzales has performed better than the bust tag he’s already been bestowed by many fans.
Feels to me like this position played out much as we expected, but importantly, the battle has shown us that while one of these guys is ultimately going to become depth, it isn’t failed depth that you cross your fingers as you force them into action. Whichever direction they go, the other player will not be more than an exceptional or poor couple weeks from seeing the team pull a switcharoo.
Whoever wins this position probably watched Cheng and Johnson in the prospect showcase the other day and installed rear view mirrors on their sunglasses anyway.
Short Stop is an important factor here too, because while I feel Oneil is healthy, I’d be shocked if he played 130 games in the field. No, I’m not angling to have Alika Williams on the bench, but suffice to say, I think they’ll need the “loser” of this battle as the season plays out.
Last year the second base position did this in relation to the rest of the league.
27th in Average – .226 28th in Hits – 124 26th in Doubles – 24 23rd in Home Runs – 12 26th in OPS – .644
Seems like I’m being negative… 6th in Strikeouts – 161 12th in Walks – 55 (Thanks Andy!)
Look, they simply have to get better production from this spot on the diamond and frankly, it shouldn’t be too much to ask based on these figures. Even for a trio of virtual rookies.
4. They’ve Left Themselves Vulnerable
There are some really good things we’ve seen this team do as it comes to fortifying their depth. Some of it looks like what I just described for second base, some of it looks more like bringing in a bunch of options for the outfield and ultimately deciding they needed another with more of an established floor.
The starting rotation isn’t loaded with confidence, but there are a lot of options there too, taking into account all the moving parts I described talking about Jared Jones up there.
I’m most concerned with first base. There’s a lot of eggs in the basket of Rowdy Tellez and honestly, he’s more of a shot than a sure thing. After him you move on to Connor Joe, Jared Triolo, maybe even Jake Lamb.
Point is it gets thin quick and before you know it we’ll see some unfortunate usages take place.
I can get behind hoping Rowdy rebounds, but I still don’t see enough backing here to help feel more steady about it.
It’s not that I see zero chance it works out ok, it’s just that I see a much more than zero percent chance it fails and honestly I don’t like what becomes of everything else if it does. The middle infield depth is pretty good, so long as Jared Triolo doesn’t have to play 1B 50 times. And if Connor Joe has to man the position a lot, you probably wind up feeling short on outfield help.
Unlike the other positions, there isn’t a list of prospects who might matter, at least not this year, not at first base.
Catcher has gotten a jump start because Henry Davis has looked simply fantastic in Spring. An unknown has started looking like it has an answer. First base is easily the least fortified position, despite how you feel about the rotation, at least there are things to try there.
5. Ten Days To Go
Things will move quickly from here. Cuts will be made, players will be released, or allowed to opt out, be reassigned, designated, you know the list. Players you believed had a shot will be discarded like they never had one to begin with.
New players you hadn’t factored into any thought whatsoever will suddenly become important.
More than anything, I can honestly say whatever they start with won’t be what they finish with, in fact, they may make choices early on to avoid a guy like Chase Anderson asking the team for his unconditional release on the 23rd like his deal says. They may want his innings early on and while this isn’t the just bring the best 26 north, it’s also a bit of a simplification.
Baseball is rarely that cut and dried.
Oh, it’s easy to see that Jared Jones and Paul Skenes are on their way to being better players than a bunch of the Pirates pitching options, but like I described earlier a baseball franchise simply can’t have it be that simple.
They have to factor in building and retaining depth. They have to factor in being sure before they jettison talent both from a depth perspective and simply not missing any nuggets because they’re using too course a screen for sifting.
Some guys might just find that end and really soon. Baseball is built to force teams to progress prospects or let them go elsewhere so they get a shot. Service time, options, all of that becomes important. Roansy Contreras undeniably has stuff, and letting him go now would be hard. Not only because it sure would be nice if he panned out, but because should another team find the code that unlocks him, this pitching hungry franchise would yet again have egg on their face.
When you don’t expect your team to win anything of consequence in a given year, you might let your testing ground stretch into the MLB season. When you expect to compete, you might have to just deal with the fact you exhausted his options, gave it as much time as you could and wish him well should he get picked up by someone else.
Every decision with the roster effects the players around them. Every opened spot is a closed door for another.
As you sit here 10 days out from the beginning of the season, kinda struggling to know what they’ll do with the fringes of the roster, just know, all this stuff counts, and sometimes it counts more than which player is better or will be better. Sometimes it’s as simple as wanting to get 35-40 innings out of a veteran in April so your rookie has gas left in the tank come September.
When your team has this many options, and rely on this many youngsters, the likelihood you’re going to start the season looking like how you finish is very low. Have an open mind, think through these decisions, I promise you, even if they’re wrong, they are.
6. Also….Oneil Cruz is a Video Game Creation
He’s hitting a homerun like every 5 at bats this Spring. He’s hitting them far, and hard as hell. He’s hitting them off lefties and righties, experienced pitchers and kids. With and against the wind, pulled and oppo.
He’s quite simply looking every bit the beast this team needs him to be.
I’m officially all the way over the moon excited to watch this kid play for an entire season.
The Pirates made two additions on Friday to improve the team and overall depth. Let’s talk about both, and let’s not hide from any of the issues that come with them.
I’m going to start with Michael Taylor, a player most of you know I have wanted here since December. Then I’ll move into Domingo German, an admittedly much more controversial signing.
Michael Taylor
Four million dollars for quite honestly an elite defender in Center Field. Some super optimistic fans will see his 21 homeruns last year and fancy it somehow repeatable, but that stat screams outlier.
His average ranges from .200 to .250, and his OPS will never impress you. Truth is, if you were signing Michael Taylor to fix your lineup, you probably aren’t all that smart.
He’ll contribute, even have stretches where you consider him more important than he is, but his best attribute, the one that makes him helpful is his elite glove.
Before I get into some stats to back that statement up, let me just add, it’s not just what he does, it’s how much better his presence can make Jack Suwinski and Bryan Reynolds.
They can use him in a backup role, someone who comes in late as a defensive replacement. He could serve as a right handed platoon option, a swing man who’s ability to play Center Field gives them the ability to put out a 3 man unit who can hit from the right side. And if need be, he can start for stretches, and help to minimize the defensive shortcomings of everyone else they play on the corners.
If you really want the story of why they signed Michael, here it is.
Simply put, this guy is here to make sure an out becomes an out and a few hits do too. That’s the story of this signing.
Against tough lefties, Jack Suwinski may not be the best option and conversely against a righty, Taylor becomes a strikeout machine. I don’t say that to assume they’re a straight platoon, I still believe the Pirates see Jack as an everyday player, but there are some lefties he simply isn’t a good matchup against.
Fortifying defensively with a veteran is a smart move, and while he’s not going to be some All Star, he is going to be a valuable addition to this squad.
Domingo German
Where do you want me to start?
Domingo is an alcoholic who abused his wife. No excuses will be made for him here, and nobody is going to preach to you that you have to accept him or hate him, or give him a second, third, how ever many chances this is.
What I can say is, he’s gone through programs, he’s still with his wife and she was involved in the discussions the Pirates had with German.
Now, she has incentive for him to make money of course, so you can’t just take this as an indication that she’s fine and dandy with everything that’s happened, but you can at least take from it that the Pirates didn’t blindly enter this.
Now, let’s be clear about what this is.
Nothing more than a shot at a shot. The Pirates offered him a path back to MLB, not a guarantee. 1.5 million dollars tied to service time and an MiLB contract with a Team option for 2025 at 2.5 million. In other words, they signed a guy who may earn his way back to MLB through both on and off the field performance. One mistake off the field, this will end. No performance on the field, he never sees it at the MLB level for the Pirates.
Performance on the field but a few incidents, he’ll never see the field.
This isn’t a savior for the rotation, not now, probably not this year. What he is, is a higher quality (talent wise) Non Roster Invitee type of player.
After the team engaged in conversations with Domingo and his wife, reportedly multiple times, MLB, and MLBPA, it’s been decided Pittsburgh would give him a shot to continue his redemption and get a shot at saving his career.
I’m sure for some this will be a public relations issue, but an MiLB player will quickly become out of sight, out of mind. When and if he finds his way to the MLB club, believe me, both he and the team will have quite the story to spin about everything he did and showed on the way here since being inked.
That won’t make it go away for everyone, totally get that, not even saying it should, but it’s also not something we’ll deal with for a while, again, this isn’t a guy jumping into the 5th starter conversation.
When it was announced this past off-season that MLB would be holding spring scrimmages strictly involving prospects, it seemed inevitable that the Pirates and Orioles would be two of the teams playing in spotlight games. Both teams have built up their farm system through trades and draft over the past few years with 4 of the past 5 first overall picks. That makes it inevitable that they will face off tonight against each other as the marquee matchup of this Spring Breakout event.
While the Orioles have graduated numerous top prospects over the past few seasons, including Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez, Gunnar Henderson and Kyle Bradish but still rank as the best (or one of the best) farm systems in baseball. Seven of their top ten prospects are projected to play for the Orioles in 2024, looking to improve a team which won 101 games last season.
The Pirates have had a number of their top prospects debut since this rebuild began: Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez, Liover Peguero are among some of the highly touted hitting prospects who have joined the Pirates with varied results. But they have much, MUCH more on the way for the pitching side, and that’s who we’re talking about ahead of the 1979 World Series rematch tonight, 45 years after that last championship for the Bucs.
Paul Skenes
If it hasn’t been announced yet, it should at least come as no surprise that Paul Skenes will be the starting pitcher tonight. Skenes was taken first overall in the 2023 MLB Draft out of Louisiana State University, fresh off leading his team to a College World Series victory and poised to be the best pitching prospect since Stephen Strasburg. His fastball has reached 102 in a spring training game. His slider has made professional hitters look like little leaguers.
The 6’6, 21-year-old and #3 prospect (per MLB Pipeline) pitched all of 6.2 innings of minor league ball last year and will not start the 2024 season in Pittsburgh. But, it likely won’t be long before we see him in the black and gold. The main things the team wants him to work on is getting comfortable with pitching every fifth or sixth day, managing his scheduled workouts between outings and handling the rigorous travel schedule that accompanies this kind of career.
His stuff is legit and the Pirates are not going to mess around with him. He basically just joined the organization from college. He hasn’t pitched more than 2 innings in a game since then. He hasn’t gotten punched in the face (metaphorically) and gotten the chance to punch back in a game. You want to see your future ace face adversity and fight to overcome it. Let it happen in Altoona for a few weeks, have him go to Indianapolis in May and expect a promotion in June during a home-stand so they can appropriately pack PNC.
Anthony Solometo
Currently ranked as the 5th best left-handed pitching prospect, Anthony Solometo has quietly risen through the ranks in the minor leagues providing excellent numbers at each stop following his 2nd round draft in 2021. Armed with a funky delivery which has garnered comps to Madison Bumgarner and Mackenzie Gore, Solometo posted a 2.64 ERA over 47.2 innings at Bradenton in 2022 with a K:BB rate of 51:19 and surrendering zero home runs in a VERY hitter friendly environment. Last year, he flew through A+ ball, surpassing his innings total from the year before by June: 58.2 innings, 68 strikeouts, 25 walks and a 2.30 ERA.
He moved up to Altoona and, after posting shutout outings in 2 of his first 3 starts, started to burnout over the remainder of the season, pitching 51.2 innings with 4.35 ERA mostly due to surrendering 23 earned runs over his final 36.3 innings with 32 strikeouts and an uncharacteristic 11 walks.
His stuff plays up due to his unconventional pitching motion and height providing an above average extension on his stride. He likely was overworked and overextended last year as he struggled down the stretch but looked solid in his 1 inning pitched this spring and will be one to watch – not just in the Breakout game, but all season.
Bubba Chandler
Skenes might have the highest floor but it’s possible that Bubba Chandler, drafted in the 3rd round in 2021 as a two-way player, could have an even higher ceiling. If there’s one prospect who had the biggest mid-season turn-around in 2023, it’s Bubba Chandler.
Passing up a chance to both play quarterback and shortstop/pitcher at Clemson University, Chandler was given some room to try developing as a two-way player in his first year of pro ball. He struggled with the bat, striking out nearly 40% of the time while not providing the power that the team had hope to see. Entering the 2023 season at A+ Greensboro, the organization decided to have him focus solely on pitching. Initially, it didn’t go well.
From the start of the season until July 6th, Chandler pitched in 16 games and compiled a 6.79 ERA in 62.1 innings with 77 strikeouts to 38 walks allowed while surrendering 10 home runs in that span. He admitted later on that the transition to only pitching was a tough one and he struggled to find a routine. Once he did, he was a completely different player.
Bubba took the All-Star break to unplug. He spent some time away from the sport and got himself reset. After that rough start, Chandler would allow 2 or less earned runs in 8 of his final 9 games, good for a 1.66 ERA in 48.2 innings with 51 strikeouts to 13 walks. He even earned a final start to the season with Altoona, pitching 5 shutout innings of 1 hit, 8-strikeout ball.
Chandler has a mid-90s fastball that can reach triple digits and an upper-80s slider with steep drop. He should start the season with the Altoona Curve but he could find himself at PNC Park sooner than later if he can continue his strong second half.
Hunter Barco
It was reported this past week that Thomas Harrington, one of the Pirates top pitching prospects, would be replaced on the Spring Breakout roster after dealing with “shoulder issues,” per team’s director of sports medicine, Todd Tomczyk. While he would have made this list, I want to turn to a pitcher who was drafted with acclaim but whose arrival in pro ball has been derailed while recovering from injury.
The second southpaw on this list, Hunter Barco was selected in the 2nd round of the 2022 draft (44th overall) out of the University of Florida. He was projected as a first rounder early in the college season, however, he tore his UCL after making just 9 starts in his Junior year and required Tommy John surgery in May 2022. He would rehab with the Pirates through the end of the year and debut at the Complex League in July 2023, pitching 7.2 innings over 3 games allowing 4 hits, 2 walks and striking out 9 with a 1.17 ERA. He was promoted to Bradenton and, although the base numbers don’t look great (5.06 ERA, 13 hits in 10.2 innings), he did strikeout 19 batters in that stretch as well.
The important thing last year was refining his throwing motion, which was deceptive but had clear injury concerns that already had come to pass and getting his velocity back. Prior to the injury, Barco was hitting mid-90s with his fastball and he was reaching 92-93 with sink. His low-80s slider is his best secondary weapon and is basically unhittable for left-handed hitters.
If he can get his velocity to tick up a bit closer to his pre-injury level while maintaining his less aggressive pitching motion, Barco could be a name to watch this upcoming season in the lower levels of the system.
David Matoma
Now, for a lesser-known prospect. Matoma was an international signing in January 2023 out of Uganda – the third Ugandan player to ever play baseball state-side. Signed just shy of his 17th birthday, Matoma was reported to be throwing 91-92 on his fastball. Not great but impressive considering the age and build (listed at 6’0/154 lbs). Then, came the jump to the states.
Matoma pitched in 9 games last year – all at rookie ball in the Domincan Summer League – totaling 16.2 innings. He allowed 12 hits, walked 7, struck out 14 and allowed zero runs. His fastball was reportedly topping at 101 MPH in a game, and he just turned 18 last month!
He has some control issues and already appears on a reliever path but there’s a ton of upside for Matoma if his stuff is legit. He likely starts 2024 in the Florida Complex League as the team continues to determine exactly what they have in him with the potential to get into the game tonight.
Check out these pitchers and more as they face off against the prospects of the Baltimore Orioles at 7:05PM tonight.
Most reasonable fans of the Pittsburgh Pirates had no expectations that Johnson would not just make the 40-man roster but also leapfrog himself right onto the 26-man with zero at-bats above A+ ball. He’s very talented but there are still some things for him to work on in the lower levels and still other options the team wants to see already with the team.
But, Termarr definitely turned some heads this spring after going 7-for-19 with 2 home runs and a 1.166 OPS in his 14 games played. He also showed that there’s still things he needs to work on before he will be making his debut.
As the 4th overall pick in the 2022 draft, Termarr Johnson joined the Pirates organization with lofty expectations. With pre-draft comps to Wade Boggs and Vladimir Guerrero, the top rated tool was his ability to hit. He posted a .400/.558/.981 slash line in his senior year of high school.
Once he turned pro, he took a bit of a step back as he posted a .222/.366/.365 over his short stint post-draft with 82 plate appearances between the Florida Complex League and Bradenton. Still, he earned a Spring Training invite the following year but that, unfortunately, was cut short due to an early hamstring injury which would delay the start to his season.
Over his first two weeks, he had a 48.5% K rate while batting .154. He didn’t hit his first home run until May 18th but once he got rolling, he was REALLY going. In May, Johnson posted an OPS of .788. In June, he bumped it to .847 and in July it rose to 1.014 – prompting a promotion to A+ Greensboro to start August.
Over the final two months, he would slash .242/.427/.842 with nearly even walk/strikeout splits (22% for BB vs. 24.2% K rate) while playing against competition who were, on average, about 3 years older than Termarr.
The hit-for-contact tool has fallen off a bit but, in its place, Johnson has become a legit power bat considering his reported 5’8/175 lbs frame. He slugged 18 home runs over just 462 plate appearances last season, which was tied for 5th most among the Pirates minor leaguers. And this came in his first professional season, which was delayed by injury, and all while walking over 100 times – a feat accomplished by just 8 players in all of MiLB last season and Johnson had, by far, the fewest plate appearances of that group.
There are some concerns with his fielding, which was on display this spring as he made a few noticeable errors in the field at second base – a position he is still adjusting to after making the transition there from shortstop following the draft – but the talent is clear.
Maybe he won’t be the next Boggs of Guerrero, but his power potential and eye at the plate could get him a more modern comp. Perhaps, someone like Juan Soto? If he can cut back on his strikeouts and build up his batting average a few tickets, that is not out of the question. And I think you would take that type of production ten out of ten times.
We’ve seen some extreme highs and lows (mostly lows) for the Pirates over the years but, in Spring Training, anything is possible. The team currently LEADS all of MLB in home runs (31) after finishing 28th over the 2023 season (159). The old cliches and platitudes are present, as always. This guy is in the “best shape of his life.” That guy “added weight and looks stronger” or “worked with ABC Pitching Wizard School” and it’s hard to say what to believe. Last year, Canaan Smith-Njigba tore it up in Spring Training only to fall short in the regular season over an admittedly small sample size there as well. In 2022, Diego Castillo earned a 26-man spot out of the spring only to provide a wRC+ of 72 and -0.2 fWAR in the regular season. In 2021, Kevin Newman batted .606 with a 1.429 OPS in 38 plate appearances only to regress back to the same old Newman we had come to know and accept.
Could some of these mirages been predicted? Probably. Given large enough sample size, numbers regress to the norm. Spring Training is a time when pitchers are working on specific things like timing, arm slot, new grip, new pitches and not getting hung up on results from the hitting side. So for the same reason that these highly inflated offensive performances shouldn’t be taken at face value, the same can be said about the pitching woes when Mitch Keller has a 6.75 ERA or Marco Gonzales has a WHIP of 2.80.
So what can we takeaway from Spring Training? Well, it’s mostly looking at some more intangible and underlying metrics specific to that player. Take, for example, Oneil Cruz.
The dude is hitting MAMMOTH shots and that’s great because he spent most of the past year rehabbing from his ankle injury. It shows that he still has his swing to catch up to mid-90s heaters but he’s also staying back on off-speed pitches and timing up breaking ones, which is something he struggled with in 2022 (batting .164 v. breaking/.222 v. off-speed) and, in a shorter sample size, in 2023, posting an expected batting average of .185 v. breaking pitches and .056 when facing off-speed.
If he can bridge the gap between how he fares against secondary pitches closer to how he does against fastballs (.280 career batting average), that can get him closer to that illustrious ceiling; however, the bigger thing we were looking for with Cruz heading into this spring was how his previously fractured right ankle would handle the rigors of day-to-day baseball activities again. He’s shown the ability to plant the foot and hit for power and, from what we are able to see in games and hear out of camp, he isn’t experiencing any pain or mobility issues when moving in the field or around the bases and that’s one of the key things you’re looking for in players this spring: Improvement on being healthy and showing capability playing where you expect them to play.
To that point, Henry Davis came into camp with a chip on his shoulder. Not only did he struggle offensively after his debut last year, posting a measly .213 batting average and underwhelming .653 OPS, but his appearances as catcher were limited to 2 innings due to concerns about a lingering hand injury and some defensive struggles Davis has exhibited. All concerns about his ability to hit or field have been mostly alleviated this spring. As of this writing, Davis has a .292 batting average in 24 at-bats with 4 home runs and a 1.125 OPS. Additionally, his presence behind the plate has gone essentially unnoticed – which is a good thing! When you have a poor catcher behind the dish, you know his name. Think Rod Barajas trying and failing to throw out baserunners or Elias Diaz being the WORST defensive catcher in all of MLB in 2019, per FanGraphs. He has been getting wide-spread praise from the pitching staff on his receiving skills out of camp, which is HUGE to his development behind the dish and being comfortable handling what could soon be one of the youngest rotations in MLB.
One last bat to be excited about: Ke’Bryan Hayes. Fresh off his well-deserved Gold Glove Award, Ke is looking to keep the offensive production from end of 2023 rolling. From August 8th on, Hayes posted a .317/.356/.577 triple slash with 10 home runs over 202 plate appearances – a 30+ HR pace over a full season and something that would assuredly lead to MVP discussion given his high defensive floor. The issues for Ke in the past have been related to exit velocity – which has been hampered at times by wrist and back issues – and launch angle but both have been strong this spring as he has an average launch angle of 13.2 and an average exit velocity of 92.2, which ranks in the top 10 for all batters this spring.
Pivoting to the pitching side, we’re dealing with smaller sample sizes as pitchers ramp up, tweak their arsenal and build up their endurance. Roansy Contreras came into this spring needing to rebound from a rough sophomore season in 2023. Velocity was down. Spin rate was down. He wasn’t looking dominant or confident on the mound. This spring, he’s shown more of who he was than who he’s been. His fastball has reached 96MPH and his slider has shown some wicked movement. He’s not yet looking like the ace pitcher that was once promised, only holding a single strikeout so far this spring over 6.2 innings but he is, at the very least, looking improved and capable as a pitcher in the major leagues.
Martin Perez was the major free agent signing to shore up the rotation this past offseason. Only a year removed from a 2.89 ERA in his All Star 2022 season, Perez struggled with the eventual World Series Champion Texas Rangers last year, being relegated to the bullpen with some trade deadline acquisitions. He finished 2023 with a 4.45 ERA and 1.405 WHIP over 141.2 innings pitched. He has only made 2 appearances thus far this spring, compiling a total of 7 innings in that time, but he’s looking like a solid rotation arm. In his most recent start on March 8, he threw 55 pitches over 4 innings with 1 hit, a hit by pitch, 2 walks and 2 strikeouts. He relied mostly on 3 pitches – cutter, sinker and changeup – with a 29% CSW (called and swing strikes) rate and generating poor average exit velocity (82.7 MPH) rates when making contact. His success on the bump, at least for the first few months of the season, will be critical in determining the team’s success in that span.
Any given game can have positive or negative takeaways for any given player. Spring training amplifies that small sample size over a few weeks after players are building up from a lengthy layoff that they won’t experience during the regular season. Pundits (myself included) pontificate about stats they value and it won’t encompass the full picture. If you want to make decisions on whether a player is doing well, looking good and potentially will be poised for a solid season ahead, watch the game and decide for yourself. Either way, we are halfway through this spring training and only 16 days away from traveling to Miami to open the season on March 28th. Try to enjoy the ride.
Listen, I’m 47 years old and today I feel like a kid.
Tomorrow morning my wife and I will be jumping on a plane and heading to Spring Training in Bradenton and I could barely sleep two nights ago I’m so pumped.
On Tuesday I’ll see the Braves and Bucs duke it out at LECOM and then on Thursday the double header event, Orioles will visit the Pirates and then the Spring Breakout Showcase that evening at 7!
It’s been far too long.
I was scheduled to go down in 2020, in fact, Craig Toth who I’m also going to be with this week down there was at the game against Toronto when the league called it quits on the season, well, most of it anyway.
We had just launched this site, at the time called Inside the Bucs Basement just a couple weeks prior. Craig and I had mapped out a plan for coverage, things we thought you’d all like to hear about, and we had next to no audience, so believe me, it was little more than our best guess at what that might be.
Instead we were forced to either just shut this thing down or ride it out and try to put something out there to keep this little “building & loan” as we jokingly referred to it going. Top ten lists, historic looks back, daily updates on how dumb the world was because of COVID and particularly how it effected baseball.
This whole thing is going to feel like a full circle being completed for me.
That said, one more piece before I go, and here it is….
1. As Much as Things Change…
I just got done talking about how COVID derailed 2020, and what’s happening now isn’t on that scale, but there is an outbreak of “flu-like symptoms” going around the Pirates clubhouse at Spring Training.
No, I’m not trying to say it’s happening again, or anything silly like that, but I do think this revelation clears up quite a few questions about why some players aren’t playing as much as we’d hoped. Just yesterday Joshua Palacios who had just returned from a lower body concern that forced him into a late start, had to miss another contest as he was scratched due to illness. Oneil Cruz missed a couple days and then came back to belt two dingers on his next two at bats.
Paul Skenes missed an outing too, it’s going around and I guess all I’m saying is have this in the back of your mind when you ask why so and so hasn’t played much, it’s not always an injury or the coaching staff sending some message, playing favorites, getting a look at someone you didn’t expect, sometimes it’s just this.
I’d also add in here, expect Andrew McCutchen to miss time very shortly, even as he didn’t start out on time. His Wife Maria could go into labor anytime now, and while I’m sure the team will quickly announce it, it’s worth noting because by the end of Spring, Cutch could very well have as few as 20 at bats. His experience level will help him, just saying, everything that happens in Spring isn’t necessarily all about baseball.
I’d also add even injuries tend to be suspect in Spring. A guy might roll over his ankle jogging down to first, he’s probably ok, maybe a little sore, if it were the regular season the player probably just takes it a little easy on the bases, perhaps they DH him for a couple days instead of just sitting him. Well, in Spring, the guy is probably coming out of the game just because the coaches saw a grimace on his face, and then he’s sitting until such a time as the team is convinced the player is 100%. Something relatively simple can cause weeks of inactivity.
The other thing you don’t get to see or often hear about, even when someone isn’t playing in games, they often are working in the background. For instance, David Bednar just had his second day in a row of playing catch, reportedly with nothing abnormal. Apparently they are just being extra careful with the LAT tightness. Trying to stop a nagging injury from becoming a season long issue. Here’s what Derek Shelton had to say.
“Everything felt good, so we’ll just progress again on flat ground and kind of extend him out to a longer throwing program, to a longer distance,” Shelton said. “Once he passes that, then he’ll get off the slope.”
The Bednar timing has me at least a little concerned he won’t be ready for opening day.
As with Spring stats, almost everything that happens in Spring needs a healthy grain of salt.
2. The Spring Breakout!
Let’s start with the Roster for the Pirates system.
Yeah, this is gonna be fun. We should get Skenes vs Holliday take 2 in this matchup. David Matoma the 18 year old Bucco farmhand from Uganda who can hit triple digits being on this roster is super cool too.
It’ll be my first time getting eyes on Axiel Plaz the 18 year old Catching prospect from Venezuela who prospect wonks have told me could be worthy of excitement.
And so much more.
It’s a first of it’s kind event and will be happening all over MLB camps, with this being the marquee matchup and it will be nationally televised on ESPN.
Here’s a list of all the matchups.
This has the potential to be a really neat and I hope it shines a brighter light on some guys who could help ballclubs beginning this year in some cases, and five years from now in others.
3. There Always Seems to Be a But…
A player with the ceiling Oneil Cruz doesn’t come along every day. One would think a fanbase that hasn’t seen the team develop a true league wide star since Andrew McCutchen would be keenly aware of this, but as much excitement as this player has generated, it’s brought just as many people who quite frankly just want to make sure everyone knows he’s a failure waiting to happen.
There are morons who still think he killed people in a drunk driving accident in the Dominican Republic. Yes, people died, but they were driving without headlights and he wasn’t drunk. Charges cleared.
Some have decided to clamp on hard to this insane “he can’t slide” garbage. I don’t even know where to begin here, suffice to say, he knows how to slide.
Some just can’t imagine him as anything other than the position they yelled and screamed about back before he even debuted. It’s not that he can’t or won’t ever move from SS, it’s not even that he has been flawless or close to it, it’s more that the team is committed to him there and making a change is simply not going to happen in season, no matter how much you remind the general public that you in your infinite baseball wisdom said back in 2019 he’d never make it as a short stop.
Thing is, you might be right. I might even feel it too. But right here, this is where I harken back to the exact same thing I said entering 2023. Two things actually. First, no other player, even given an entire year to do so has shown the ability to take the position from him, even not being flawless or close to it as I mentioned, he’s still better all around than what has presented itself. Second, just like last year, the team wants to see him do it for a full season.
Everything that was last offseason with Cruz, is with Cruz this offseason. The valid concerns remain, the unfounded worries piled on by new ones.
He gets repeated chances with the glove because of what he can do, meaning the raw abilities, nobody else can. He’ll have errors, but he’ll also get outs others wouldn’t. He’ll start double plays that had no business being double plays, he’ll use that canon to get an out at first base he had no business getting. The hope is that after a full season the good will outweigh the bad.
They could be wrong, we could finish this season and there’s just no way to move forward with Cruz being this team’s short stop. But “we” could be wrong too.
Next you have the “he can’t hit lefties” people, and while I don’t ever think he’ll hit them as well as he does righties, he’s making progress. 2022 he absolutely struggled in this department, and he had so few at bats in 2023 there just isn’t anything you can really take from it. Too few at bats to pronounce this a decided matter.
How about the he strikes out too much folks? Almost 35% in 2022 which stinks, but in 2023 again, not enough to go on. Sure it started out looking better, but you just can’t base any kind of trending on 9 games. Guess what? Yup, need to see a season to gather what’s going on in this department.
Every concern you can bring up, ok, a lot of the concerns you can bring up are founded, but the answer is the same as it was last year. We just have to see more.
In the meantime, try not to miss what he already has shown you, and continues to show, because even if he doesn’t become an unstoppable juggernaut who the baseball world has no answer for, the chances are he’s still going to be better than many of the hare brained predictions of doom and gloom I’m seeing out there. His ceiling is sky high, his floor probably still makes him a very valuable player. Calm down and enjoy a fun and unique player, and open your mind, because uniqueness requires it for appreciation. Worry about what he can’t do when he’s shown you enough to know it. Until then enjoy what he undoubtedly can.
4. They Can’t All be Starters
Nobody knows more than I how hard it is to see a prospect and convince yourself they have a future only to find out in the coming years it just isn’t going to turn into what you’d hoped.
That’s the way it is when you really get into that side of the game. Some of these kids you could start watching when they’re 16 or 17 and the skills make themselves apparent immediately. As they move up and face other players who have many of those same skills you get to learn more about their place in this game, if indeed they have one.
One player I really camped onto was Rodolfo Castro and I did so when he was a very young player. The Pirates obviously agreed, and they promoted him accordingly. All the skills were there, all of them, but the thing is he never had it translate to the Bigs, not all the way anyhow. He’s now been traded to the Phillies for Bailey Falter and it’s very likely neither are MLB players long term.
That’s how this rolls. You win some, and you lose far more than that. If it didn’t work that way the hit rate on prospects would be much higher than it is. Careers would be shorter to make room for the constant flow of successful prospects. Starting rotations would be so overloaded that free agent starters like Lance Lynn would be working in an accounting firm by now.
That’s just not how it works.
I say this because as you watch guys play, you should keep in mind, getting to the league and becoming a player team’s want to keep is one of the hardest things to do in sports, becoming a starter, even harder, a star, oh yeah, not many of those really, superstar, you can count them and keep one sock on.
It’s a hell of a sport. So if your first round pick becomes a bench player, you might just have to find a way to remind yourself it isn’t ideal, it’s not what you or the team hoped, but it’s still an MLB player and that in and of itself isn’t guaranteed.
Connor Joe was a first round selection. 39th overall, a Comp pick by your Pittsburgh Pirates back in 2014. He was traded more than a couple times, battled health issues and issues learning how to play against better competition. He fought through for a taste in 2019, missed all of 2020 like so many, and finally fought his way back to MLB in 2021 with Colorado.
A couple pedestrian seasons there led the Pirates to reacquire him from the Rockies for a pitching prospect and he’s since shown himself to be a capable and versatile bench player for the Pirates.
It took 5 years for him to get a shot, 7 to stick and now he’s eligible for 3 more years of arbitration, meaning he won’t reach free agency until 2028 when he’ll be 35 years old.
He’ll never be a star in this league, in fact, he’ll probably have to fight for a spot on whatever team he plays for every Spring for the rest of his career.
In no way is he a failure though. Why just looking through this franchise’s last couple decades of top picks it should be pretty easy to see what failure looks like.
Carmen Mlodzinski is also a Comp pick 1st rounder, one that was drafted as an oft injured college starter with very little experience even at that level, so to see him shoving as a rookie 3 years since being selected even as a reliever is again, not a failure.
Remember these examples as you watch this team take shape while it moves forward. Braxton Ashcraft or Jared Jones could wind up in the pen or flat out not succeed. Nick Gonzales could be a bench player. Ji-hwan Bae could be a player that someone finds a way to unlock someday, maybe even not here.
At any one time there are 780 active MLB roster spots. 1,200 40-man spots, and while that sounds like an awful lot it’s a very exclusive club. Think about this Pirates team as it currently is, there are probably 10-15 players on the roster who could be on it for the next 2 or 3 years at least. That doesn’t exactly make it easy to crack the roster does it? Certainly harder than it would have been in 2020. The Dodgers might have room for what 5 or 6 debuts this year? Maybe room for one to stick?
These jobs don’t grow on trees, and in case you haven’t been watching the last 5 spots on any given roster aren’t exactly filled with superstars. In fact at some point in a successful career, most superstars who hold on a bit longer than they should become one of those last 5 spots themselves.
Use the word Bust with a bit more care.
5. Spring Numbers & Storylines
When you write or talk about baseball during Spring Training, there are certain realities you simply can’t avoid. No matter what you write about, someone is going to comment that Spring Numbers don’t matter, well, unless it supports the vision of truth they already had.
Talk about a battle for a spot and they’ll tell you there is no reason to pretend it’s a battle, everything is predetermined dontchaknow.
Listen, there’s a bit of truth in that of course, both of them, unfortunately they’re far too rigidly applied.
When a player goes off in Spring Training it’s a given that you have to see it in the regular season. But, there are times where it matters. For instance, the Pirates second base position battle.
All young players, nobody who is predetermined to win it, nobody in danger of losing their 40-man spot if they don’t win it, nobody that costs more than another. Nobody with a vast amount of experience the others don’t have.
In other words, there are no factors to consider aside from how they perform in the only way a player could, on the field.
Now, that doesn’t mean say Peguero hitting .340 in Spring would carry over to regular season success, but if everything else is equal like I just outlined, it sure wouldn’t hurt his chances of winning the job.
Henry Davis is not likely to stay on pace to hit 50+ homeruns once the regular season hits, but he entered Spring with questions about his ability to catch and hit, so while he’s doing well and hasn’t laid a ton of track, it’s certainly encouraging. Do we really need to make sure we hit everyone who talks about him looking like a catcher get’s smacked in the dome with a hammer?
When I write about this stuff, I try very hard to make sure I show you both sides of this fence. It’s important to recognize what you see in March often isn’t sustainable, but I also try to make sure I’m clearly seeing the competition the player has faced.
Hunter Stratton is a good example this Spring. He’s faced 24 batters this Spring racking up a WHIP of 1.000, 9 strike outs, and an ERA of 0.00. On the surface, this has all the signs of a guy having a great Spring, maybe even an NRI who could play his way into a 40-man spot and a shot to help the big club.
He certainly could do all that, and this could be very very real. If you actually saw or heard the level of competition he was facing though, it might give you pause. See, by the time Hunter is coming into these ballgames, quite often changes have been made and guys with no names on their backs are at the dish.
It’s still impressive, and as a big leaguer last year, only 8 games mind you, he pitched 12 innings, 2.25 ERA and a 1.000 WHIP.
His Spring numbers are at least partially supported by his MLB numbers, but we’ll still need to see him do more against guys who will be on the big stage.
Hedge your bet, you’re smart to do so, but not every number is nothing, just like not every stat means what you hope.
Shutting down conversation with these familiar tropes though, man it robs you of talking deeper like I just did with Hunter.
Had I just read you his numbers and told you he should make the opening day roster, a lot of you would buy it entirely, some of you would simply dismiss it with the familiar “it’s Spring” comment. I’d much prefer to discuss both sides of these performances, understand the circumstances surrounding the performance and even then, you almost always need to see more.
Termarr Johnson hits two rockets off MLB pitchers, hell yeah it means more than it would had he done so off an MiLB camper, but even then you have to factor in that there is next to no book to work with for these pitchers.
Everything this time of year has value, you’re right to point out the ways in which they can be misleading, but you should probably recognize at the same time sometimes they actually point right at the answer.
Steel City Pirates 