The Many What If’s of Jack Suwinski

1-14-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Image Courtesy of Eddie Provident

If your roster is filled with young players, your expectations for the upcoming season are filled with what ifs. They just are.

It’s why fans have a hard time seeing a team leave room for someone like Roansy Contreras or Luis Ortiz. The potential is there, and so is the danger they just can’t do it again. So as a fan, it’s often easier to accept someone capable of far less spectacular, in exchange for the steady and consistency of MLB tested Veteran.

Like last year when Johan Oviedo made the team look like they were right in 2023, well, who’s to say that won’t be whomever they decide to kick the tires on this year. Eventually after all, if this thing clicks, it will be driven by kids getting better.

Jack Suwinski is one of those kids. Oh, he’s not in danger of being replaced on the roster, but he’s a young player, 25 years old and made his MLB debut in 2022 at the age of 23. Let’s walk through his journey a bit, because as it comes to Jack, you can learn a lot from what he does in reaction to being challenged.

Offseason Following 2021

Jack was a recent acquisition, largely dealt because of his recently emerged power and his pending Rule 5 Protection need. The Pirates had several choices for protection in this offseason including Cal Mitchell, Canaan Smith-Njigba, Travis Swaggerty and few considered Jack Suwinski who hadn’t played above AA, in fact, few believed they’d protect 3 outfielders.

In the end they did protect 3, Canaan, Swaggerty and of course Suwinski.

Even then, it was inconceivable to many of us they’d use him, it was just that bit of power they were afraid would catch someone’s eye….right?

In fact, they called up Cal Mitchell before any of them anyway, because Ben Cherington loves keeping us thinking.

The 2022 Season Showed Us

What we found out about Jack Suwinski in his 2022 season was pretty simple and encompassed into 372 plate appearances and 106 games.

  1. Uncommon, Easy Power – You don’t hit 19 homeruns in that number of at bats in your rookie season and avoid attention.
  2. Weird, Uncanny Splits – Almost no conversation could be had, that didn’t at least broach his home/away splits. Leading some to question if he could hit homeruns without the short porch of the Clemente Wall.
  3. Better Defender than Scouting Reports Indicated – The Book on Jack was that he was a DH. A player without a position. He played some Center Field as a rookie, so either everyone missed something, or, he just worked at it. Either way, pleasant surprise.
  4. Too Many K’s, Not Enough Walks – Typically a death Tarot card for a prospect, Jack did enough to hope they could at least make it a bit more palatable. 41/114 is just scary.

Everything about Jack was big, he’s big, his hair is big, his splits were big, but nobody could tell if this was going anywhere or if he was just going to be a rookie trivia answer in 15 years.

Offseason Following 2022

Was he a platoon player? If so, do we believe those splits? Does it matter if he strikes out that much? He’s an ok fielder but his arm, man.

Jack was a hot topic in the offseason. No matter what else he was, he was still a kid that hit almost 20 bombs in like 2/3 of a season, if that. That deserved discussion, and it had some people beside themselves because to them, all the things he wasn’t, outweighed what he was or could turn into.

The Pirates tasked Jack, a chronic charter, note taker and learner, with finding a way to develop a better eye at the plate, and strike out less in the process by not chasing as much.

I’ve heard first hand, nobody was more confused by the splits than Jack himself, it just goes to show, if you watch baseball for the rest of your life, you’ll still see something you’ve never seen before.

The 2023 Season Showed Us

He entered with all those questions, answered a few, created a few more too.

For starters, the Pirates force fed, and sometimes painfully so, 534 plate appearances. I’ll touch on why it was painful below, but most of you are already barking it at the screen.

  1. Uncommon, Easy Power – Oh my yes, 26 more homeruns in a season he probably wouldn’t consider a roaring success, yup, the power is real, and MLB pitchers were unable to avoid it, even after it was scouted because Jack expanded his “win” zone.
  2. Weird, Uncanny Splits – Gone for the most part. All the whacky home and away stuff chilled out, the Left-Right splits improved, but not to beyond concern. The main concern with his L/R splits is the OPS drop, versus Righties .856, against Lefties .608. He can have less success against lefties, that’s ok, even expected a bit, but a drop off like that screams need for improvement or avoidance.
  3. Better Defender than Scouting Reports Indicated – Yeah, still true, even after the Pirates kinda shocked all of us naming him the Center Fielder. Rocky start out there on paths to balls, jumps, but he improved what he could as the season played out. The arm is the arm, it’s never going to be stellar, but his positioning improving could make it less of an issue, so there is room for improvement yet.
  4. Too Many K’s, Not Enough Walks – Maybe too much better if that makes sense. 172 Strike Outs, 75 Walks, that’s still more K’s than you’d like and many of them were in an effort to improve his walk totals. This “good” thing that admittedly helped him create a season OPS of .793, also had him looking at pitches for called strikes repeatedly. It created walks, but it created K’s too, so many that it was hard to notice his Chase Rate had become elite, again, too elite, again, if that makes sense.

This Offseason

Here’s where we are with Jacks answered questions, and others he needs to answer yet.

  1. The power is real and he is beyond a shadow of doubt an MLB player
  2. The Chase Rate shows restraint and a willingness to stick to his plan, toward the end of the season he started realizing he’d do nothing but K or BB if he didn’t start swinging at some pitches on the outer third. It comes at the expense of some power, unless he’s ready for the Pitcher coming in to keep him from diving out. If he’s pitched out and up and this season chooses to swing instead of watch it go by for a call, look out Left Field Loonies.
  3. He’s a good enough defender to play out there, I’d prefer him as a Left Fielder all things being equal, but we’re ok there, so for now, it is what it is, and I don think he has a bit of room to improve.
  4. How do the Splits evolve? Make no mistake, that will get answered this year. He’ll tell us in 2024 if he is going to be an every day player or they’re going to have to find a right handed counterpart for where ever he plays.

Big year for Jack. He enters Arbitration in 2026, so he has two more years before he costs much money. The Pirates know this too, and they’d be wise to recognize right now, if he hits another 25-30 bombs this year or more, that Arb figure is gonna start getting really interesting.

Suwinski is a sneaky good extension candidate. Seeing what he does in 2024 knowing you still have 2025 on his entry status, you can probably wait, but if you want to place a bet and maybe get this done as a bargain, toss him 7 or 8 years right now, buy out his 2 years pre-arb, 3 or 4 years of arb if he indeed becomes Super 2 and a couple more. It’s a risk, just like Polanco was, and it could turn out just as bad, or WAY better, but if he turns into the 40 bomb basher some see behind the rough edges, he’d be worth the risk.

We’ve seen exciting things like this before. Josh Bell had even more power, was a switch hitter who for stretches looked like the best hitter in baseball. Nate McLouth lit up the league one year. It’s no guarantee, never is.

You can’t have a young team without questions, hopes and dreams of projectability, and Jack is no different. The longer he’s here though, the close to get to being able to put him primarily in the “known” bucket. Here’s hoping when he gets there we can call it “known stud” cause it would be a huge difference maker for this club’s chances.

The 10 Most Feared Pirates Hitters Since Barry Bonds

1-12-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

This offseason has been heavy.

I mean, it should be, it’s a really important year in this build, regardless of how well they handle it. That said, today let’s lighten it up a bit and have some fun.

All of these lists tend to wind up with Bonds, a ton of 70s guys and Kiner. So I thought, let’s force ourselves out of that all time historical box and just focus on the past 40ish years and hopefully remember some guys we don’t talk about enough.

One more thing before we start, for me, to fear a hitter, I need to at least have a little concern he could pop one when he’s up, so probably don’t expect to see Freddy Sanchez, even if he did earn hardware on a very not good team.

I can hardly wait for the arguments. Lets Go! And, watch the videos, some incredible memories, great calls, familiar and missed faces and voices. Enjoy Bucco Nation!

10. Garrett (G.I.) Jones (2009-2013)

Jones is arguably the luckiest signing the Pirates ever made. Drafted in 1999 by the Braves and released after 2001, he’d just done absolutely nothing in rookie ball for 3 years.

Minnesota gave him a shot and he slowly moved up, displaying a ton of power on the way but for some reason the Twins only gave him 84 plate appearances in the Bigs to show if his 58 homeruns in 3 years of AAA from 2005-2007 might pan out.

They too granted him free agency.

The Pirates, trying desperately to retool on a team that had just again dumped their roster including Jason Bay picked up the kid as a flyer and all he did is put a lot of baseballs over the wall.

100 as a Pirate to be exact, along with 139 doubles and a .780 OPS. Many forget he was on their 2013 playoff team and swatted 15 homeruns with 26 doubles that year. A 27 homerun in 2012 helped the Pirates almost arrive early, and all because the Pirates took a flyer on a kid way too old to have not latched on at 28 years old.

Garrett is the twinkle in every GM’s eye when they sign an NRI to bring to camp.

9. Jeff King (1989-1996)

Jeff had a few years of playing with the Pirates under his belt by 1993 when Barry Bonds left, and I’ll admit, Jeff is cheating a bit here as he overlapped with Barry, but upon Barry’s exit, King, the Pirates top selection in the draft back in 1986, was supposed to be poised and ready to assume the mantle as the team’s next big star.

And in 1993, he started to reward some of that faith by hitting a ton of singles. Not exactly what the Pirates were hoping for, but still, it was welcome and they were productive singles, he drove in 98 runs that year, still, I wouldn’t put him in the fear category.

it clicked in 1995 and he’d hit 48 of his 99 Pirates homeruns from 95-96 before leaving town via trade along with Pirates Playoff alum Jay Bell to Kansas City in exchange for Joe Randa, Jeff Martin, Jeff granger and Jeff Wallace. Old people like me call this the “J Trade” cause it was all Jeff’s and J’s. Imagine if it was involving the Blue Jays Too!

8. Al Martin (1992-1999)

From the top, this isn’t a list of great guys, this is a list of feared hitters. Al turns out, not a straight shooter to say the least, probably worse, that’s not what this is about, but I know it’s gonna come up.

What Martin is on this list for is his 107 homeruns as a Pirate along with 178 doubles.

Despite his claim that he had been selected for the 1994 All star game (he wasn’t), his best years were really from 1995-1999.

Taking over left field for Barry Bonds is not going to win you many popularity contests, and being a dink along the way won’t either, but I can still appreciate for a time, Al Martin could make you think twice about walking someone in front of him.

7. Starling Marte (2012-2019)

An all star in 2016, Marte often under appreciated as it comes to Pirates lore. First of all, he was a very young player during the Pirates peak in the decade, so much of his time being the best, or most feared Pirates Bat came after the team’s window had crashed on their fingers, and even then, he had to share it with Andrew McCutchen before ultimately spending two years trying to be the man all by himself.

Starling had crazy power, but a true 5 tool player, he let the pitcher decide where he was hitting the baseball a lot more often than trying to hit dingers. His speed turned Doubles into Triples and Singles into Doubles.

108 homeruns as a Pirate with a .287 average and a .793 OPS is nothing to sneeze at. During that time he led off, hit cleanup, did whatever he could to help and never played a game where the opposing manager thought they could pitch around someone to get to him.

6. Pedro Alvarez (2010-2015)

El Toro has always been talked about more from the perspective of what he didn’t become, than what he actually did.

Through much of the Pirates successful window of the 2010’s, Pedro Alvarez was at the heart of driving the offense. Unmistakable power and difficulties facing left handed pitching had plagued him but he still hit 131 homeruns as a Pirate, 111 of which came from 2012 through 2015. His defense made it hard to play him, but it’s safe to say had the DH been a thing, eh, who am I kidding, they’d have traded him anyway.

An All Star and a Silver Slugger in 2013 to go with 36 dingers and 100 RBI, I’ll always remember Pedro as one of the many faces that brought playoff baseball back to a starved city.

5. Aramis Ramirez (1998-2002 / 2015)

Aramis Ramirez is arguably the story of the Pittsburgh Pirates in these last 40 years or so in miniature. they quite literally were forced to trade him because they couldn’t afford to pay for their team’s expenses. The Cubs were more than happy to take the freshly emerged power hitter for peanuts and a healthy dose of embarrassment for a rival team.

In 2001 he hit 34 homeruns for 112 RBI with 40 doubles a .300 average and an .885 OPS. In 2002, he fell back a little, but still hit 18 for 71, but he was totally back on track in 2003 before the trade.

Ramirez to the Cubs along with Kenny Lofton and cash for Jose Hernandez (no not the reliever they have today), Matt Bruback and what would turn out to be Bobby Hill.

Excuse me, I have to vomit….

4. Reggie Sanders (2003)

For one glorious year, former Cincinnati Reds player turned journeyman Reggie Sanders graced us with his talent. He was masterful, scary even.

His overall numbers are probably more impressive than you know, but let’s focus on what he did as a one year stop gap signing. 498 plate appearances, 129 hits, 27 doubles, 31 homeruns, a .285 batting average and an OPS of .913.

So of course the friggin’ Cardinals signed him for 2 years that offseason.

3. Jason Bay (2003-2008)

Jason gets glazed over because he was part of two trades, each of which claimed to be kicking off a rebuild. First being acquired from the Padres along with Oliver Perez, who might be a vampire by the way, dude looks like he’s 35, for Brian Giles and a PTBNL (Corey Stewart – enjoy your next trivia event).

Then after hitting 139 homeruns and 151 doubles in only 719 games with the Buccos he was off again, this time part of a 3 team deal with Boston and LA that brought back Andy LaRoche, Bryan Morris, Craig Hansen and Brandon Moss. Yeah, none of them are on the list…

From 2005 to 2008, Bay was consistently one of the better hitters in baseball, even with average.

2. Brian Giles (1999-2003)

For a time there, Giles was just about everyone in baseball’s example for the fish that got away. Traded to the Pirates from Cleveland in 1998 for eventual Moneyball featured target Ricardo Rincon.

All Brian did is hit 165 of his 287 homeruns in Pittsburgh with a career batting average of .291 and an OPS of .902.

From 1999-2003 he was just about everyone’s focus when they game planned for the Pirates lineup and he was unflappable. He hit big moment homeruns, timely hits and hustled to the point of endangering others and himself on the basepaths. What a find in a deal, and what a player.

1. Andrew McCutchen (2009-2017 / 2023-?)

Andrew is still building his career numbers of course, thankfully back in the Black and Gold so we can watch it first hand.

As we sit here right now his team history rankings are kinda eye opening as to how damn good he’s been.

Andrew is…
4th in Homeruns with 215
11th in Runs with 869
7th in Doubles with 311

He won the MVP in 2013 but was in the running for it from 2012 through 2015. For those 4 years, NOBODY wanted to face Andrew McCutchen.

Cutch has worked his way into the top of many of these lists that didn’t force the exclusion of the franchise’s most successful eras.

Fearing Risk Forces the Pirates to Take On Even More

1-10-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

For a baseball team that doesn’t have unlimited resources risk becomes something to avoid. Now, don’t get me wrong, risk isn’t always a good thing, but a team that has no choice but to live on that edge, well, you better have some guts, and some very smart people helping you place the right bets.

When the last window of competitive baseball opened up here in Pittsburgh, a series of risks helped make it happen. Some, we wouldn’t consider risks if they were to come up today.

Back in 2012 the Pirates had seen enough of Andrew McCutchen to know he was ready to extend, and they did, buying out his arbitration years and adding on two options, a 6 year 51.5 million dollar pact that was to keep him in Pittsburgh through 2017 at least. It bought out his 3 years of arbitration plus 3 more.

They’d follow this in 2014 by signing Starling Marte to a 6 year deal while the young promising outfielder had only accrued 1 year of major league service time. They tacked on two option years for good measure.

And that my friends, is a risk. An exciting young 5-tool kid who had done precious little. 748 at bats, 17 homers, .784 OPS his top mark in 2013, but the Pirates took a bet and they locked up the player Starling Marte would become for 31 million dollars. I mean just his arbitration awards alone they probably saved that much.

The flip side of that coin is of course always going to be Gregory Polanco. This too was right at the beginning of his arbitration year, and he signed a 5 year 35 million dollar contract with escalators built in for performance that could have valued up to 60 and a couple option years on top. He of course didn’t turn out as good, and the funny thing is, when signed he was even less of a perceived risk.

Here’s another risk, Jose Tabata in 2011 signed after only having one year of service time a 6 year 14.5 million dollar deal. I guess you could call that a risk, but it was peanuts even if he sucked, which he did, so they could have just cut him like it was nothing, instead they held on for dear life ’til 2015

The lesson learned here is, and yes, you have to adjust for inflation, but the riskier the deal, the cheaper it could be, and if you’re wrong, it’s only going to hurt for a year or two tops, financially anyway.

Now you fast forward to today. Mitch Keller made this very hard for the Pirates. He was awful for years, and while he showed signs here and there, never enough to think you want to take a jump, well, until the end of 2022. He showed at the end of that year he had found something, but even then, I could see not trusting it. Heck, I’m a fan and wasn’t sure.

That’s the thing though, it was also the perfect time to approach him.

I think at the time, he’d have jumped all over it, and I bet the Pirates could have gotten him to sell them 3 years of arbitration and 3 more for 35-50 million. One year later, make that 2 years of arbitration and you kinda hope he gives you two years of free agency for what, maybe 70-80?

Being sure is really expensive.

How about taking a guy like Johan Oviedo? He’s hurt now with Tommy John, but he showed enough to believe he could be a 5th starter when he gets back right? He’ll be back in 2025 and right then he’ll be one year shy of hitting arbitration. Do it now, you maybe get him for 6 years and can keep it reasonable, maybe he even becomes better, something in the 30-40 range and maybe you get a year or two of free agency. Wait through 2025 to make sure he’s healthy, or maybe you never saw enough in 2023 to be “sure”, mark my words, by 2026 this conversation is silly if he lays down a good one in 2025. He’ll price himself out of town before he goes apartment shopping.

Listen, I’m not saying they have to roll the dice on everyone, but much like the moral to Finding Nemo, if you’re too afraid of risk, you don’t really get to live.

Jackson Chourio just signed with the Brewers before he even debuted, to an 8 year 82 million dollar deal that buys out all his years of team control plus 2 years. If he’s even just a major league regular for all that time they win.

Oneil Cruz has easily shown more than Chourio, and he spent all last year on the IL, yet, if you were to approach him right now looking for 8 years, which would buy out his pre arb years, arb and 3 years of free agency, I’d be shocked if you got out of it for less than 100, maybe more. Let him hit this year and guess what?

The point is, the Pirates have a ton of restraints, but risk can help them afford better players longer. It can also stick them with problem contracts. In this case, the earlier the risk the better.

Chourio could suck out loud and it’ll sting, but 10.25 million per year won’t kill them and it wouldn’t kill the Pirates either. What kills the Pirates and teams like them is being so locked up with fear that they wait until such a point that they feel certain a player is going to at least be a certain level before broaching the subject.

I can say with certainty, had they jumped on Bryan Reynolds 1 year earlier, they’d have had the same deal for 20 million less. 2 years earlier, maybe 30 or 35.

I don’t say this to rob the players of money, far from it, these deals pay the players much better early in the contract than the MLB minimum and the team gets to pay a bit less for the more mature player that hopefully they can afford to put even more talent around.

You have to know when to push in your chips, and what I think we’ve seen from Ben Cherington is he’s willing to extend guys, I just think if he was just a bit more willing to take on some risk, he’d ultimately get more out of his budget.

And I don’t think it’s asking too much. Nobody can forecast out the future entirely, but be real here, you know when you first thought this guy might wind up pricing himself out of here was for all these guys. Keller was during last year. Cruz was really the first time you saw him flick his wrists and put a ball on the riverwalk. Maybe you aren’t there yet on Oviedo, it could be a reach, I admit it, but if I think that, and you think that, guess what the league thinks too. That my friends is why it would come cheap.

Hayes, honestly last year, but they jumped on him and for the affordable type of deal I’m hoping to see more of it. Hayes gives me hope that Cherington can work his way into jumping into a risk, because if he hits like he did in 2023 again, he’ll never spend another day in which a human utters the silly thought he might be overpaid.

For a team that spends the way the Pirates do to win in a league in which they could face a foe that spends 4 or 5 times as much as them, it’s going to take some luck, risks and of course, educating yourself as much as possible to mitigate both.

It’s going to take a magic trick or two.

The Pirates as it comes to extending players, are always a victim of their risk adverseness. They have to be super sure, and the thing is, ‘sure’ costs money, lots more than ‘close to sure’, or ‘probably’ cost. That mentality has to change or they’ll never pull any meaningful trick off.

What exactly is in store for Ji-hwan Bae’s future in Pittsburgh?

1-10-24 – By Ethan Smith – @MVP_ETHAN on X

The Pittsburgh Pirates off-season has given us all a ton to discuss, even if many think the Pirates haven’t done enough.

We’ve seen additions, we’ve seen subtractions, we’ve seen promises of competitive baseball heading into 2024 from the front office, but as always, it’s important to look at what’s already here when discussing the club itself.

Ji-hwan Bae fits that bill as a player who has been given ample opportunities over the past two seasons, but as the team has continued to grow and more prospects have made their way to PNC Park, so have questions about what exactly is in store for the speedster moving forward in Pittsburgh or somewhere else.

Bae quickly became a player who opened eyes due to his electric speed on the base path that gives opposing pitchers fits, especially with the new pick-off rules, and a hit tool that could potentially make him an on-base machine.

Upon his arrival on September 23, 2022 vs Chicago, that’s exactly what he showed the coaching staff, but the small sample size over inflated his statistics. Then came 2023, a season that was very important for what kind of player Bae would be for Derek Shelton’s team.

One thing that cannot be argued when talking about Bae is that he’s been given ample opportunities so far in his short MLB career in Pittsburgh.

His 334 at-bats ranked sixth on the club last season, while he ranked sixth in games played as well. So the opportunities have been there, but what has he done with them?

Bae slashed .231/.296/.311/.607 last season with 32 RBIs and 24 stolen bases, a season that many would shrug away from immediately, but diving into his advanced metrics offers some more insight.

Due to his style of play, you wouldn’t expect Bae to rank highly offensively in any advanced Statcast metric, and that’s exactly the story when diving in.

Bae ranked below the 25th percentile, which is considered between poor and average, in xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity, barrel %, hard hit % and sweet spot %, which is just about every important advanced batting metric when looking at a player.

Obviously his sprint speed ranked highly along with his base running value, seeing as that’s the biggest strength to his game, but his defensive metrics are about just as an important look as his offensive ones, seeing as improvements on both sides would completely change the conversation about him.

I’ll pose a question before sharing his defensive metrics, “How much trust do you have in Bae to be an adequate defensive player in center field or second base?”.

Well, Statcast seems to think center field suits him better.

In 2023, Bae had a -1 and a -2 OAA at shortstop and second base, which from just watching the games, you could probably expect with his defensive struggles.

He did improve though from 2022 to 2023 in catch percentage added, a metric that adds or subtracts expected catch percentage from actual catch percentage, as he improved by nine points from a -6 to a plus-3.

Now, in center field, another position of question for him due to his poor arm strength, he was a plus OAA player in 2023 at plus-3. Compare that to the other outfielders on the roster, that being Bryan Reynolds, Jack Suwinski, Joshua Palacios, Connor Joe and Edward Olivares, and he ranked alongside Suwinski and one above Joe in the metric while the others were all in the negatives.

So, with the sample size we have all seen, we all have a pretty good idea of the type of player Bae could be in his MLB career, but as with many young players, he has serious areas that need improvement.

For starters, Bae will never be a plus-power hitter at the big league level, that’s just fact. With that said, you’d like to see his averages and especially his OBP improve so that his biggest strength, his base running, can be utilized more.

A big step towards that improvement would be improving his strikeout to walk ratio, which was 92 strikeouts to 30 walks in 2023, about a 3-to-1 ratio. Bringing his chase rate(28.8%), strikeout rate(24.8%) down and his walk rate(8.1%) up would go a long way as well, allowing him to get on base more via the free pass while limiting strikeouts and forcing opposing defenses to make a tough out more often than not.

Defensively, you’d like to see Bae play better at 2B, but his 69% success rate defensively at the position, compared to his 94% success rate in CF, suggests he’s better off as an outfielder, especially with the log jam of players in the middle infield.

To make him a viable player, he has to bring the OBP up, limit strikeouts, thrive on the free pass and be at least near an average defender, be it at second base or the outfield.

As of right now, the challenges are apparent for Bae making the roster. Liover Peguero and Jared Triolo have shown they are options at second base, and Michael wrote a great piece breaking all that down this morning. Nick Gonzales is a former first round pick and will likely get ample opportunities. And that is all before top position prospect Termarr Johnson arrives.

If Bae could play shortstop, none of that would matter, but the sad reality is he can’t, so you have to shift your focus to who he’d be battling against in the outfield, and it doesn’t get much easier for him.

We all know two spots in the outfield are occupied by Reynolds and Suwinski, with right field being the likely open spot. Excluding Bae, you’re looking at Palacios, Olivares, Celestino and prospects such as Matt Gorski and Canaan Smith Njigba as potential options. That’s a loaded list folks, and Bae would have to show me some improvement defensively to even consider him being more than a backup outfielder.

The reality is, Bae is a young, controllable player who could turn into a weapon, and a serious one, for this Pirates team with the improvements I have outlined, becoming an on-base machine and being at least near a league-average defensive player. If he can improve in those areas, I think there’s a place for him, but does he get the same opportunities he saw last season?

Those opportunities will be hard to come by, seeing as I mentioned eight players that Bae will likely be directly competing with. I’m not saying he won’t get them, but every opportunity he gets will have to showcase his best version of himself as a baseball player.

If the Pirates don’t see those improvements, I just find it difficult for Bae to occupy a spot on the roster and more importantly, for it to make sense.

2024 will be a huge season for him, and who knows, maybe Bae becomes the on-base machine he could be and steals 30 bases next year. Maybe he doesn’t even do it in Pittsburgh, seeing as his toolset could be valuable to another roster if he is moved, which isn’t all that unlikely if the Pirates make another move, which I think we all expect.

The decision on Bae’s future in Pittsburgh will be decided how it should be, on the field, and the Pirates are at the stage of their “rebuild” where thats how every player will be evaluated, because options aplenty, jobs aren’t as safe as they were two years ago, and thats a good thing for a team who appears to be on upward trajectory heading into 2024.

How Deep Is Our Infield

1-10-23 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

Last week, I looked at the outfield, breaking down the myriad of options and illustrating the options and difficulties at filling the three positions (four, counting bench player) on the grass. This week, we’re looking at the 5 guys around the diamond and how that expects to look on Opening Day and beyond.

In 2023, there was a fair bit of turnover in the infield. It’s not necessarily a bad thing but an inordinate amount of different names at certain positions typically indicate that none of them are performing well. Last season, both shortstop and second base were a revolving door, including former Buccos of Tucupita Marcano, Rodolfo Castro, Mark Mathias and Vinny Capra. But, during the course of a rebuild like ours, that is often how it looks. 

2022 had even more uncertainty in even more positions, culminating in 68 different names cycling through the roster at various points – the most of any season for the Pirates. 

It may seem unlikely that the Bucs have as much rollover this season but, as we will discuss, there are certainly some areas which are not ironed out and could go to a number of players.

Catcher

Starting off behind the dish, a position with which there was so much promise heading into last year. Our former top overall pick, Henry Davis, and another top prospect acquired in a high-profile trade, Endy Rodriguez, each seemed poised to make the jump at some point in 2023. While both of them did, the results, unfortunately, were not what fans hoped to see as they both experienced significant setbacks and Davis was mostly relegated to right field to give more reps to his younger counterpart. This year, Davis will be on the forefront after a batting practice swing resulted in Endy needing Tommy John surgery, sidelining him for all of 2024 and losing a year of critical development. 

While Davis seems the obvious candidate to take majority reps behind the dish, there are clear concerns. For one, his offensive proclivity for which he was lauded during his time at Louisville (.337/.435/.566 line with 21 home runs in 109 games) failed to seriously materialize as he had a paltry .213/.302/.351 in 62 MLB games with just 7 long-balls to his name. For another, the aforementioned exile to the outfield. The guy is clearly washed with the bat and the organization obviously has no confidence in the glove behind the dish. 

Hopefully, you see where I’m going with this.

Injuries have been a common refrain in Henry’s professional career and 2023 was no different as he was dealt a bad hand – pun intended. Davis debuted on June 19th at home against the Chicago Cubs, going 1-for-4 with a run scored, a walk and a strikeout. His two batted balls had an average exit velocity of 105.7 MPH and started a stretch of 27 games where he would post a .295/.391/463 line with 4 doubles, 4 home runs and a BB/K rate of 12/20. 

Unfortunately, at some point, he injured his right hand, battling through the pain before ultimately spending nearly a month on the injured list, returning to post unenviable numbers: .154/.234/.269 with 3 home runs, and average exit velocity of 88.1 during that span of 145 plate appearances. 

How much of that was due to the injury versus the league punching back against a rookie is hard to say but fans should be rooting for Davis to succeed. Everything coming out from the organization, and from Davis himself, is about how tirelessly he’s been working both at the plate and behind it. 

I didn’t mention his defense behind the dish as he only played 2 innings there with the Pirates in 2023 and…well, let’s just say there’s reason for concern. But, he’s here for his bat. If he can be at least serviceable behind the plate, it’s a clear win. 

Behind him are Jason Delay with a career 68 wRC+ and Ali Sanchez, who was DFA’d from multiple teams already and has 6 major league games to his name. Both are defensively inclined and profile best in back-up roles, likely leaving only one of them in Pittsburgh and the other heading down to Indianapolis as depth.

First Base

This has been a weird position for the Pirates over the past, say, 25 years. Kevin Young posted a 5.6 bWAR in 1999 but since then, the Bucs have had just a handful of competent starting 1B and none matching their division rivals in that time. The position has become more of a carousel than a horse race as the team has struggled to maintain consistent output from the corner.

First off, elephant in the room: There have been rumors swirling that the Pirates are interested in bringing Carlos Santana back after his half season stint with the team last year. He provided a solid bat with Gold Glove caliber defense and clubhouse leadership which is immeasurably valuable. If that happens, things will certainly change, but for now, he’s still in the wind and we’re working with what we’ve got.

This year, the Pirates appear to be choosing a platoon of previously DFA’d slugger, Rowdy Tellez, and Connor Joe, who has been a league average hitter for most of his career. This isn’t the most eye-popping tandem but it has the potential to be productive if used correctly.

Tellez is coming off arguably the worst offensive year of his career. He managed just 13 home runs over 351 plate appearances – a steep drop from the 35 he clubbed the year prior, cutting his slugging percentage from a solid .461 in 2022 to a depressing .376 in 2023. Additionally, his strikeout rate jumped from 20.2% to 24.5% and his barrel rate, hard hit% and average exit velocity all trended downward. The positive news? That power potential might still be in there.

Rowdy suffered a freak injury last July, requiring surgery and leading him to miss 4 weeks of the season, and this was after he was already out 2 weeks due to right forearm inflammation. Prior to those injuries, his season wasn’t All Star caliber by any stretch but he had already hit 12 of his home runs. 

Actually, his 12th of the season was on May 22nd – the 47th game of the season for the Brewers. 

After that game, he held a .255/.350/.547 line with a 135 wRC+ and things just went downhill from there. If the coaching staff in Pittsburgh can figure out what went wrong, whether the start of his inflammation issue or something else, they’ve got a pretty good piece there.

His potential counterpart in Conner Joe endeared himself to Pirates fans with a 107 wRC+ season with fine but unspectacular defense. I detailed some of this in my outfield breakdown last week but the team sees his value. His walk and chase rates are both well above average, something the team has indicated preference to in the past. If he’s still on the team come Opening Day, they will give him opportunities to play.

Second Base

As mentioned before, this was a position of turmoil and turnover in 2023 with plenty of rookies given the opportunity to earn the spot and many of them failing horribly. Ji Hwan Bae (214 plate appearances) was given the longest leash and remains in the mix for the spot with a crop of up-and-comers in Nick Gonzales (99 PA), Liover Peguero (89 PA) and Jared Triolo (41 PA). 

Bae proved to be a suboptimal defender at 2nd base where he couldn’t utilize his speed to bridge shortcomings in the way he could in center field. His Outs Above Average (-2), Ultimate Zone Rating (-4) and Defensive Runs Saved (-6) were all seriously terrible. And this would be fine if he made up for it with the bat, but, outside of a strong first month, Bae struggled to produce at the plate or on the bases. He finished with a 66 wRC+ and a -0.3fWAR while finishing 2nd in all of baseball at caught stealing. If he makes the team, it won’t be – or at least shouldn’t be – at 2nd base.

Gonzales was Ben Cherington’s first draft pick after taking over GM duties for the Pirates, selecting Nicky G 7th overall in the Covid-shortened 2020 draft. A strong .399/.502/.747 triple slash at New Mexico State made the pick look like a clear win at the time but pro ball proved more challenging for the young Buc as strikeouts piled up, especially against off-speed stuff. With the slew of youngsters called up and ample opportunities for playing time in the middle infield, Gonzales surprisingly only managed 128 total plate appearances. 

And, continuing his trend from the minors, he crushed fastballs, slugging .731 against 4-seamers and .889 against cutters in this small sample but failing to do much damage against other offerings, including a .091 slugging against sliders and batting .071 against changeups. There’s a chance he can make it as the power potential is legit when he gets his pitch but there are just SO MANY pitches that he hasn’t been able to handle yet.

Peguero seems to be far and away the front-runner for the job. During the autograph session at PiratesFest this past weekend, he was seated next to his would-be double play partner in Oneil Cruz and seemed eager to step in as the top candidate for this job. While his short track record since joining the Bucs last season has been mixed (74 wRC+ but managed 7 home runs in just 59 games played), there’s reason to believe he’s in line for the position.

Having only turned 23 last month, Peguero has youth on his side and posted his best walk and strikeout rates (10.1 BB% and 17.5 K%) over 76 games at Altoona and Indianapolis. Combined with his time at Pittsburgh, he had a 20-20-20 (doubles-home runs-stolen bases) season. The power/speed combination can be a valuable asset for the young Pirates squad.

Triolo has the unfortunate position of being a “jack of all trades, master of none” situation. But, just like the full quote itself, Triolo’s value isn’t what it appears. We know his defensive acumen, earning him multiple minor league gold gloves. He also showed a surprisingly solid stretch with the bat as a remarkably strong season, spurred by a good bit of batted ball luck, as he split 2023 almost equally between Indianapolis and Pittsburgh and posted nearly identical numbers at each level.

Ultimately, his defensive versatility may provide him opportunities to play all around the diamond and potentially preclude him from manning an official position long-term.

It’s a mixed bag of potential for this group as none stands out as the clear-cut candidate heading into the season. The battle for this spot may not be decided until sometime in Spring Training – or even into the start of the season.

Shortstop

The left side of Pittsburgh’s infield is poised to be locked down for the foreseeable future, and potentially very, VERY good. And that all starts with the 6 ‘7 behemoth who, fans hope, will be starting shortstop for the Pirates for a considerable amount of games this season. 

Oneil Cruz hasn’t even had a full season’s worth of plate appearances – 410 plate appearances with a .237/.328/.458 line over that time – but there is optimism that he can be. His goals heading into 2023 were lofty before an ill-advised slide cut his season short after just 9 games. But in those 9 games, Cruz showed some SERIOUS improvement on both sides of the ball.

We’re going to be talking about a small sample size but, offensively, Cruz cut his strikeout rate from 34.9% in 2022 to 20% in 2023 while raising his walk rate from 7.8% to 17.5%. It’s a small sample size, yes, but a guy that size is going to strike out a fair bit. His zone is too large not to, but when he is seeing the ball, laying off poor pitches, making better decisions at the dish, that’s the growth you want to see – even if over just 40 plate appearances. 

A big knock on Cruz has been his fielding, rushing throws and launching them over his intended target at first base. Last season, he started taking a bit off his throws, settling his feet and gaining more confidence in his abilities. He also had a bigger target to hit in Carlos Santana (5 ’11 vs 5 ’10 Michael Chavis), which could improve further this season with 6 ‘4 Rowdy Tellez.

Coming off of a serious injury, there is no guarantee how he will perform on either side of the ball but the coaching staff, at least, is optimistic.

Behind Cruz, the only other potential player at short not already mentioned is Alika Williams. Acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays in exchange for reliever Robert Stephenson, Williams has a fairly decent shot at getting a bench spot with the Pirates this spring. For one, he’s the only name on the 40-man who has logged significant reps at shortstop, providing 2 Defensive Runs Saved over 301.2 innings there last season. Maybe you can say Triolo can do well there, or Peguero if he doesn’t lock down a lead role but there’s a good chance the team goes an alternative route here.

Williams doesn’t blow you away with his bat, garnering a measly 43 wRC+ over 112 plate appearances with the Bucs. That said, he did post a .915 OPS over 36 games with Indianapolis last year slugging 7 home runs in those 148 plate appearances with excellent walk and strikeout rates. 

Is that the real Alika Williams? Probably not. He never hit above .280 at any level before clearing .300 with Indy. Is it something to consider when you add in his plus defense at a premium position bereft of other options? Yeah, I think it’s at least something to think about for the upcoming season.

Another option – and likely quite a bit further down the line – is recent 40-man addition Tsung-Che Cheng. At just 22, he’s only played 66 games above A+ ball and the results were sub-par as he posted a .656 OPS over 281 plate appearances in Altoona last year after spending the first half RAKING in Greensboro with a .980 OPS over 254 PAs in the hitters paradise.

Being added to the 40-man ahead of the Rule 5 Draft shows the organization values him. Reports on his defense and work he’s been putting in have been glowing across the board but he’ll have to make some adjustments to continue moving forward in his professional career.

Third Base

I’ve been running the KELIEVE train for so long (see here and here) that my phone has completely abandoned autocorrecting it. The defense from young Ke’Bryan Hayes is and has been legit. In fact, he’s been statistically the best defender in all of baseball since his debut by a number of metrics:

And, while arguments can be made that he should have a cache of Gold Gloves already, he finally secured his first in 2023 after another strong defensive season but the addition of an offensive output helped make his case.

Despite once again missing time on the injured list, Hayes posted his strongest numbers at the dish since his abbreviated 2020 debut as he slashed .271/.309/.453 over 525 plate appearances with 15 home runs , 65 runs and 61 RBI – all career highs for the young star. 

Though he missed essentially all of July due to recurring back problems, his numbers from 5/31 to the end of the year showed some serious results:

His .867 OPS in that span would have paced him as the top qualified third basemen if held over the full season, just ahead of noted slugger Austin Riley’s .861.

So yeah, he’s the best player defensively in all of baseball, and then posted a 72 game stretch where he was the best offensive third basemen in his league as well. All this while he is just entering his prime and is under contract through the end of the decade with an EXTREMELY team-friendly deal. 

Conclusion

There’s no guarantees in baseball, especially when you rely so heavily on your youth movement to continue growing and developing at an upward trajectory. Some will succeed and some won’t. While there is hope for stability this year don’t be surprised if some names on this list who you are sure will be long-term members of this team are not even in the organization come November. 

Just hope that they do a little bit better this time. 

Evaluating The Pittsburgh Pirates Pitching Situation

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-px4hb-15467e6

Craig talks about his time at PiratesFest this past weekend, before Craig and Chris dive in heavy to the pitching situation in Pittsburgh; especially concerning a possible Mitch Keller extension, and the eventual promotion of Paul Skenes. 

Brought to you by ShopYinzz.com! Craig Toth previously covered the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, but now simply joins his buddy Chris at a 9-foot homemade oak bar every week to talk Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & All Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

It’s Time for a Change SteelCityPirates.com is Born

1-9-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

I started writing for Sports Illustrated back in 2019, I had dabbled in writing here and there, never really planned to do much with it until I met the late great Jason Rollison and his passion and reason for doing his Buccocast pod struck a chord with me. He just wanted Pirates fans to have better options for hearing and reading about the team.

Man, that sounded awesome to me.

While writing for SI, I met Craig Toth host of Bucs in the Basement, we hit it off and even when our editor went A.W.O.L. and we were starting to read the writing on the wall, we just kept writing until they shut us down and folded the regional sports network. Two weeks later we hastily launched this site without much thought about names or design or how we’d make a name for ourselves, if we ever did, but hey it was fun anyway. Toss COVID in there like a week later.

Well, then all of you happened, and Pirates Fan Forum launched at DK Pittsburgh Sports and we brought in other writers, and they have podcasts, and let’s just say our hastily put together site was leaving us wondering if we maybe should have thought a bit longer first.

Well, some of that change is coming today.

Craig is leaving the writing side of things, and that being the case, and me very much so not leaving the writing side of things, there’s no bad blood here, we just decided, hey, let’s move on and it seems like the perfect time to rebrand. Before I do, let me just say, I wouldn’t be where I am today if it hadn’t been for Craig, we built this up together, hell we called it our “old building and loan” as a joke that it sucked our lives away and never made us a dime.

His show is still great, and if this is ever something he wants to do again, and I still am operating this building and loan, he’s welcome back with open arms.

Moving forward though, Michael Castrigano from the 412 Double Play Podcast and frequent writer on this site will be stepping up into the co-editor role. He’s growing as a writer and podcaster and I’m lucky to have him and others along here, there’s lots to cover.

Yea, Jud and Corey and Joe, and Ethan are all still here too and who knows, maybe we’ll add more. Point is, the graphics change, the URL changes to http://www.SteelCityPirates.com, but I don’t think you should expect the earth to shake here with changes.

I think what this is becoming is a place for podcasters to be able to express themselves with writing as well. A place to expand on something time prohibits. Another reason to do the research, and more than anything, another way to get more serious bucco talk out there.

I’m sure things will change on social media and what not, and I’m quite sure you’ll run into references to Inside the Bucs Basement all over this site, I’m not changing the past, none of it is something to bury, but I hope to have all the cosmetic stuff in the right place by Monday. Social media I have to take a fresh look at and will ASAP.

That’s it, that’s what I got. Hope you like the new name, it took me almost 2 weeks to decide, I think it took me like 20 minutes to name both my sons, lol. Also, if you don’t want to rely on social media to know when there’s a new piece on the site, just subscribe on the homepage, I don’t use it for anything, it’s just an email when something is posted.

And I’m still not trying to run ads here, or go premium or whatever, maybe we’ll look into some sponsorships for recurring pieces like 5 Thoughts or whatever we come up with, so don’t expect to deal with pop ups or anything like that.

It’s fair to say we’ll remain Fair Pirates Coverage…That’s what Craig and I set out to do, and I think we have done so, no reason to stop that now.

Thanks for coming along with me all this time, whenever you hopped on, making changes like this can be nerve wracking if you think your audience is only half paying attention, this one is all in, and has been from the jump.

Let’s get it,

And Lets Go Bucs!

Gary

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – OK, Let’s Get Back to Business

1-8-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

PiratesFest was fun but now it’s time to get back to the business of building this team for what Derek Shelton again on the record said they want to win this year. Now, I wouldn’t expect him to say he planned to finish last, but I’m not sure I see a division winner as we sit here either.

The holidays are gone, PiratesFest is over, it’s time to get as serious as I hope they know it should be to tell hungry and hurt fans a Division Title is within reach if it isn’t….

…unless they’re right.

1. So a Division Winner Huh?

It’s possible, it’s always possible. I mean, many of you remember 1997, you never know, and your division, well, it’s always going to be true, anything can happen.

Baseball is about likelihoods, percentages, playing the odds, all of that, so I have no issue with shooting high, but to make such a goal something you put out in the universe, I’d like to think you sure it up, you know, at least make the bet realistic.

Hey, all joking aside the Steelers just got help and got in again! Don’t sit here and tell me something isn’t possible. lol

Let’s talk about what they really need yet, and no, I don’t care if a prospect has to start in AAA, or a player needs traded or DFAd or whatever method of moving players needs to happen. If they want to win this division, one that other teams are still shaping, they need more and that means honestly evaluating areas of weakness, and upgrading them regardless of the corresponding mess you potentially create, of course within reason.

First Base – Rowdy Tellez can’t be the only addition at first base, unless one of two things is true. 1. They think Conner Joe is way better than he’s shown, and no, I don’t think he’s awful. Or, 2. They believe someone else like Jared Triolo is not only going to make the team but he’ll hit enough to man 1B. I suppose 3 could be that they believe Tellez will play the defense of his life and he’ll also revert to his power numbers from 2022, and stay a lot healthier than he did last year and… I’d sure this up, and while I’m not sure they’ll land Carlos Santana, I can say their biggest competition for him might be the Mariners and the Brewers, neither of which want to add much payroll. I think he takes 7-8 million to get done, he had that kind of season where even a year older than the too old he was last year, he’s probably getting a raise. I know normally you’d say the Pirates don’t spend, why would they spend here? All I can say is, it’s not about that, it’s about what I think they need to reach such a lofty goal.

Starting Pitcher – Specifically, they need someone who can help Mitch Keller carry this staff. Usually what that looks like for this team is a guy with at the very least recent performance that suggests he could do it again, but for some reason or another, didn’t last year. They don’t have to trade for this, but I don’t think there are more than 3 players who might classify as capable of filling this role on the traditional market remaining, Marcus Stroman, Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell. Two of those guys are going to get 20 million plus, one maybe 16-18. All will want years. Below that, you have Ryu, Lorenzen, Paxton and you could probably add a few more. this group you could probably get for a year or two, 10-16 depending on who. Trades present some options. The Royals have some young pitching and might want to move some guys who still have a couple years of control to make room. Seattle, Miami, who knows, Colorado does something stupid every year, ask them, lol. Point is, they need to find one, and it needs to at least be of a quality that you can expect 25+ starts and look decent doing it. Non-negotiable, probably even for just a Wild Card. I don’t care what it costs for this reason, Atlanta just got Chris Sale in a deal and extended him to restructure his entire contract, on top of getting Boston to pay the entirety of his 2024 commitment. I get it, not a Pirates deal model, but my point is, Atlanta didn’t add payroll here in 2024, so I don’t use a generic payroll figure to argue “improved” or not.

Center Fielder – I’m fine with Jack in Center, but more than anything, I want Jack taking 550 at bats this year, so if you bring in an outfielder, bring in an outfielder that improves the defense out there. I have no desire for an outfielder who isn’t going to start 135+ games, so if it isn’t a starter, I’ll pass. And as I already said but feel the need to repeat here. If you want to improve a team, you can’t have feelings. Moves like this could cost Joshua Palacios a job, maybe Conner Joe, this Olivares kid for sure, and bluntly, if it improves the team, it can’t matter. You can’t serve both masters in this game. It’d also be good if this was a right handed stick.

Catcher – The Pirates have Henry, Jason Delay and Ali Sanchez all right here, and Binz, Abrahan Gutierrez I can’t see dipping into the depth here. This one, I’m iffy on, if Henry can handle 70-80 games, ok, but if not, we have to be clear, Jason Delay isn’t the starter on a playoff team. This one could be as simple as letting it play into Spring, really give Henry a good look and if you feel ok, well, roll into the season a little and see how it plays out. If it looks like there’s just a poison pill he can’t overcome, or you just can’t let it go yet, grip up someone like Tucker Barnhardt should he not make the Arizona Roster from his minor league deal. Tyler Heineman is always a threat to wind up available again. If you’re going to fortify this to slow walk Henry, it can’t be for all that long. At some point this team is going to have to accept he may not be perfect but everything about him works better for the roster if he’s catching, at least until there is healthy competition for him again.

I’d call that 3 and a half things they have to do, and some ways to go about it. In the next thought, I’m going to talk about how I see this 13 position player set starting to look.

2. Lucky 13

The Pirates may not be ranked top 5 at a whole lot of positions, but when it comes to ceiling, they’re sitting in a pretty good spot almost everywhere, well, except first base forever and always.

I like to break the roster into 2 sets of 13, one for pitchers, and one for hitters. Of course, when the team comes North they could choose to keep 14 of either and 12 of the other, but by sometime in April they’ll be back to 13/13.

Let’s do the fielders as we sit here, and if there’s a competition at a position, well, I’m declaring my leader in the clubhouse too I suppose.

The Starters
C – Henry Davis
3B – Ke’Bryan Hayes
SS – Oneil Cruz
2B – Liover Peguero
1B – Rowdy Tellez
LF – Bryan Reynolds
CF – Jack Suwinski
RF – Edward Olivares
DH – Andrew McCutchen

The Bench
C – Jason Delay
OF – Joshua Palacios
1B/OF – Connor Joe
3B/2B/1B – Jared Triolo

The Fringes
2B/CF – Ji Hwan Bae
C – Ali Sanchez
2B/SS/3B – Nick Gonzales
SS/2B – Alika Williams
SS/2B – Tsung-Che Cheng
LF/RF – Canaan Smith-Njigba
CF/RF/LF – Gilberto Celestino

The NRI’s/Vet Filler (There will be more)
3B/1B/RF – Jake Lamb
LF/RF/1B – Billy McKinney
1B – Seth Beer

Non-40 Prospects to watch in 2024 for call up and why
C – Abrahan Gutierrez – None of the Pirates MiLB catchers are offensively impressive, but Abrahan is arguably the best defender who’s close.

1B/2B/3B – Aaron Shackelford – He’s 27 has a ton of power, if he’s ever getting a shot, even if it leads to being DFA’d days later it’ll be this year.

1B – Malcom Nunez – He’s only 22, so washing your hands of him would be premature, that said, he’d have to push to make this a reality. An emergency won’t get it done, as his age makes him more valuable than a guy like Shack. Just sayin’.

2B/DH – Termarr Johnson – I think he could push his way onto this team by the end of 2024. I also think this would require a whole bunch of extreme good from him and bad from the options in front of him.

3B/2B – Jackson Glenn – System guy here much like Shackelford, but also a use him or lose him type.

CF/LF/1B – Matt Gorski – Big power when it emerges gets noticed. Show it with less strikeouts and who knows.

RF/3B/LF – Joe Perez – Interesting late season pick up, really might be something there. At least enough to put him on this list. I’m at least as interested in him as I am Celestino, well, minus the CF ability.

That’s what I got. I think as we sit here they have 15-16 guys who can stake some kind of claim to an MLB role entering Spring, and remember, I want them to add.

I’ll let you do the math.

It’s not that I dislike guys like Joe, or Palacios, or that I think any of the prospects in particular stink, but you have to recognize as you look at a roster the weak spots, even if they’re nice guys who couldn’t be better ambassador’s for their team.

I will only speak for myself here, I don’t hate any player, well, ok Kolten Wong, but I mean Pirates players ok?

And the last thing I’ll say here because it’s the first time it’s been this way since Cherington took over. For the first time at bats at the Major League level aren’t only part of development, now they have to contribute to winning too. If they don’t, those at bats simply need to come in AAA instead or decisions need made as to whether we’ve seen enough or not on a guy.

For instance, in 2022 it makes more sense to give Jack Suwinski at bats, than it does to bring in a Conner Joe type. In 2024 it becomes a bit harder for prospects to crack through, and yes they should make it even harder. The harder it is, the better the depth will be, and hopefully the more prepared they’ll be when called upon. If a dude forces the issue, so be it, but no more can they arrive on some arbitrary schedule.

3. Projections & Offseason Progression

Part of the discourse over most off seasons inevitably becomes projection. Let’s guess who does what.

At best, fans will base their projection on whatever someone did last year, and if they’re extra into it maybe they’re adding in a full load of at bats or innings and projecting all that out with it to guess.

That’s all STEAMER and ZIPS really are, formulas that look at player histories and project out what a player might do. Both of them also have to project how many at bats/innings a player might get too, which is really hard. For instance, I “cover” this team and I couldn’t begin to tell you how many innings Quinn Priester will pitch in MLB this year and if I were to project based on his 2023 numbers, well, quite frankly he’s not getting more innings if he pitches like that.

In other words, those projections have a place, and they’re fun but for me they’re more accurate the longer a player plays, so for a team like Pittsburgh or Baltimore for instance, well, I have a hard time placing much in them.

The point of this thought though, is more to remind you baseball players take their absolute biggest jumps in execution, development, bulking, trimming, shaping, timing, in the off season, and absolutely nobody can project out how damn hard someone is going to work, and what the results might bring.

Yup, that knife cuts both ways too, see Luis Ortiz and Roansy Contreras last year. That’s not to blame them for not working, it’s more to say, just going through an offseason doesn’t guarantee growth either, regardless of what you try to get done. In other words, maybe soften what you “know” into what you “think”.

At least let this though wash over your brain when you start talking yourself into Nick Gonzales being expendable or Ji Hwan Bae’s experiment being over or Jared Triolo being a .300 hitting All Star Utility infielder.

When you get to the point where you think you’re sending MLB talent to the minors when you break camp, this is the kind of stuff you start to look for, rather than just picking a few names and waiting for them to get here.

Right now, I like the mix of potential 2B. Come Spring, I could wind up thinking they have 4 I want to see or none. And that feeling right there, is why teams don’t just leave spots for rookies willingly unless they don’t expect to win or are frugal.

4. 2 Offseason Proposals

Hey, MLB changes their rules every year, and it’s supposedly for the fans. Let me make a couple that I think could make the MLB offseason more fun.

Eliminate the 60-day Remittal Process – Now, what I mean here is, if a player is going to start the following year on the 60-day IL like JT Brubaker, Mike Burrows, Johan Oviedo, Endy Rodriguez, the exercise of purging the 40-man to fit them back on only to transfer them once Spring Training opens slows the market for free agent acquisitions by creating a spots game for teams. I understand why you would be concerned this could be abused, because if it can be they certainly will, but there must be something we can do to at least minimize the risk there even if it requires independent medical opinion to confirm designation. For a team like the Pirates, they aren’t exactly thrilled to have to DFA any of their 40-man and 4 of them won’t play before July if at all in 2024. To me, that’s just market crippling as they absolutely aren’t alone here. We keep crying about a slow market, but to me, this almost guarantees it will be because you can wait to pick up mid tier and below.

Put in New Deadline Structures to Force the Action – As it stands, there is no deadline for signing Free agents and in season that makes sense, but there’s also no structure to MLB’s off season free agency that funnels action and focuses fans. No, in MLB, even as the Championship Parade is ongoing teams are already posting qualifying offers, making option decisions or scrambling to re-sign a pending free agent.

5 days is all they get before boom it’s free agency time. To me, build up some anticipation. Give us a bit bigger of a period to try to woo a player to stay in town instead of free agency. Create an environment that when you open the market, teams are chomping at the gate like Secretariat .

10 days later you have to purge your roster (creating new free agents) to protect guys from the Rule 5, which usually fills most of your spots.

Then boom onto tendering arbitration guys.

The Winter meetings used to feel like a spot to look to. A place where deals got made, guys got signed, a flurry of activity in the baseball world where teams added and swapped and a buzz was created. Now though, it really accomplishes little of that, the free agent market is held up by agents until the perceived top tier starts signing.

With no deadline, well, ever, it can just drag on and on. Put in some milestones. Get creative. Maybe open an early window and it’s just for 75 million plus contracts that lasts 2 weeks and then everything is open. I’m just spit balling, but this isn’t going to just get entertaining again on it’s own, not as things are structured.

5. Things I Still Expect to See in the NL Central

Brewers – It sounds like the Brewers are leaning toward trying to keep what they have together at least until they get to the deadline. The buzz seems to be that they are not making Adames, Peralta or Burnes affordable. I’d imagine if a team really looked like they were jumping to the top of the division they might be budged but feels like they plan to at least enter the season trying to compete and delaying a potential retool.

Cardinals – The Cards jumped out early and added pitching, specifically starting pitching. Sonny Gray is the big swing, and they added competent depth beyond that. Feels like they’d still be ok moving some of their younger position players even after moving Tyler O’neil but they certainly don’t have to. They’re probably improved, but nobody will know and I can’t claim to understand where they go from here. I think they realize they need more young pitching, but this isn’t a team that “rebuilds” they reload. This could be a staging year.

Reds – The Reds have done well, with some nice additions to the fold. And, they were already a pretty strong squad. They almost have to be at least close to done, I can’t imagine they want to move any of that young talent they worked so hard to build up, at least not yet, maybe at the deadline if they are in position. Cincy will and has spent, but they also know they need the core to be young and cheap to ultimately get where they want to go. I think they sit in the weeds now and the question with them will stay the same, is the sophomore jinx real? If so, they’re screwed, cause they have an absolute mess of them. To me, total wild card team this year. They caught fire, but kids react differently when presented with adversity. Let’s see. Pirates have many of the same issues and concerns.

Cubs – They’ve spent more time hiring coaches and team executives than signing anyone of note. I can’t imagine they get into the season without adding. They’ve been rumored in just about every big name, so it’s not like they aren’t offering, and I’d assume they wind up getting Stroman or Bellinger at least, if only because they had fans really believing last year and losing those two while doing nothing isn’t going to sell in Chicago. Right now, how can I evaluate this club? I can’t, I just know Justin Steele and Jameson Taillon aren’t enough and MVP bats don’t grow on trees.

6. Bonus

If you made it this far, January 12th MLB clubs and Arbitration eligible players must submit their offers. So expect to hear some kind of news on Mitch Keller this week. Could be just a contract for the year to avoid Arb, or, you’ll hear about them going to a hearing and the figures will leak out. People will call them cheap. Others will yell about extending him. more still will panic about the though of him hearing bad things about himself if they make him go through the process.

Yup, it’s that time of year.

Also, the Pirates hired Scott Seabol to be a hitting instructor in the minor leagues. I just so happen to have talked to him a bunch.

Here’s an article…. https://insidethebucsbasement.com/2020/04/26/communication-is-the-fuel-that-fires-the-engine-a-conversation-with-eric-minshall-and-scott-seabol/

And here he is on our podcast The Pirates Fan Forum

A ton of insight on a coach the team just hired. You might never hear stuff like this for a coach in a minor league system. Enjoy if you like!

PiratesFest Takeaways, Observations & Thoughts

1-7-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The first thing to say about PiratesFest which took place yesterday 1/6/2024 at the David L. Lawrence Convention Center is really that is was a success. We all can nitpick, but by in large, everyone seemed to find something that got them going. My friends with kids, well, they didn’t like standing in line, but once the line was through, the players, coaches and staff made the kids feel special.

That’s really what matters most, but we know that’s also not all it is.

Let’s go over some of the news, notes and whatnot from the Pirates Mid Winter Classic.

Oneil Cruz is Healthy & Hungry

There has been this nagging worry about Oneil Cruz’ health, or ability to recover from his injury almost since it happened last April. Cruz himself joked “The only thing that I think have to prove to myself, and I did already a few months ago, was just how to slide again,” “And I did that in the Dominican during the rehab assignment down there, during games. I took that out of my check list, and I think I’m good now.”

In all seriousness though, He’s fine and the only reference to any potential slowdowns we should expect came from Ben Cherington in the Q&A when he mentioned that they planned no restrictions, but playing time to a degree must account for how he feels when he starts playing the demanding position of short stop.

And that’s really nugget number 2 here, he’s absolutely starting as and the team’s starting short stop.

On a personal note, I talked to Oneil for a moment, and he did a little jig for me to show the ankle worked. It was rehearsed, I saw him do it for 5-6 other people like it was a little routine and joke combo he had worked out.

Henry Davis is Really Working Hard Catching

Henry looks bigger, especially in his arms and shoulders. Something he would note is in an effort to increase his ability to put in the work he needs to in 2024 carrying a starter’s load behind the dish.

He was also very open with reporters about how hard he’s been working in Bradenton this Winter, specifically mentioned was the work he’s done with Quinn Priester who I’ll circle back to in the next point.

Another interesting nugget here was just how complimentary and seemingly excited Mitch Keller is about throwing to him and talked about the work they’ve put in to get on what he feels is now the same page.

The Pirates reiterated their intentions to play Henry at Catcher and insisted the Endy news came after they made this decision.

Bottom line, they think he can do this, regardless of what you think.

Very much sounded to me reading between the lines, the team thinks Jason Delay could win the starting job, and Henry seemed to allude to that possibility as well, but I don’t believe this would be a 5-2 split.

The Q&A Turned Out Great

The PR of the Q&A went poorly, but in application, it was really good. The Pirates took some pre screened questions and they chose some tough ones too, but more than that, they took live questions too, like, lots of them.

There were cheers for payroll questions, claps for comparisons to other teams spending, and even larger ranging questions about deferring money.

The representatives, Travis Williams, Ben Cherington and Derek Shelton all seemed more than comfortable no matter the subject.

Now, part of that is, you can ask whatever you want, but the truth is, they’re going to answer it however they like too. Any talk of payroll was met with the standard trappings, you know, we have to do this differently, or We’re spending more in development. They know how to answer all this stuff at this point.

They remain bullish on the belief they will compete for the division in 2024, and while I don’t see it, I have to acknowledge they’ve also said countless times they aren’t done and as Derek Shelton said best “We have to know our players better than other teams do” which is a really simplistic thing to say, but a quote that took me back because it’s really more of a GM thing to say.

Endy Playing Winter Ball, Not A Pirates Decision

The Question was basically how do you decide who can and can’t play in Winter Ball. Several journalists made a very big deal that the Pirates made a mistake allowing Endy to play but this answer really filled in some blanks I don’t believe I had heard before.

Bottom line, if you’re a native born player, they have little say in whether they can or can’t play, domestic players, it’s much more the team’s call.

Quinn Priester “Revamped How He Wants to Throw the Baseball”

This nugget came form Henry Davis while talking about his work at Pirates City in Bradenton. Quinn wasn’t available for reporters to follow up, but expect to see a different looking Priester as well this season. Physically, Quinn is bigger than I remember, especially in the legs.

Quinn is a tinkerer, always has been, probably a product of being largely self taught prior to being drafted. Some of his tweaks he’s eliminated because they haven’t helped, some he’s minimized other’s he’s taken with him. This time, he’s doing all of this under team supervision, and with a guy who just about everyone hopes is catching him for years to come.

Paul Skenes Wasn’t There

This isn’t news, lots of players weren’t there, but I do think there was a bit of an expectation on the part of the public that Paul Skenes the number one overall selection last season should, and would be at the event.

It of course had some people mad, others started conspiracy theories.

I’ve been told he was asked, but had conflicting plans so it was a no go.

Now, he was mentioned, Ben Cherington said flatly “I have no idea when Paul will pitch for the Pirates, honestly, I really don’t”.

To some I’m sure this is just cover for the Super 2 designation that they’ve been told to worry about, but in this case, man this guy hasn’t thrown many pitches as a pro, and if you watched them, you can’t possibly believe he’s just a straight from college player.

They’re not going to be risky here, and I’m quite sure that’s not going to change the inevitable. We’ll hear all the same whining to start him immediately regardless of just about anything he does that looks half way passible.

This is not a risk team. It hurts them on the trade and free agency boards. It hurts them on extension negotiations. And yes, it’s hurt them with calling up prospects. That said, I can make a pretty strong argument they called up Henry Davis too early last year, but they rushed him because the part of his game that looked ready was the bat, the very part they needed most.

It turned their prized rookie into a punchline for poor defense.

I could see them rushing Skenes for similar reasons. They need Starters, and top end starters. He’s probably gonna be one, and against AA and AAA hitters, he’ll likely look like he could be one before too long. Here’s hoping they pull the right levers and push the right buttons.

The Players Sound Different

I’ve heard the faux optimism of a knowingly underwhelming team before. You all have. You’ve seen it in interviews just about every Spring since probably 2019.

You know what I mean. You hear a guy like Austin Hedges talk eloquently about his role and how he thinks he’s found something that can unlock some of that freak power he had for one season.

You hear the “star” hitter work his ass off to compliment the carnage all around him and pretend he’s confident he’ll be up with the bases loaded 47 times this season.

You hear David Bednar pretend he’s not the only guy you can count on for 3 tough outs.

Well, this year, I’ll let you experience Spring for yourself and ultimately decide for yourself when you get to hear it, all I can say is, they don’t sound the same to me.

These guys are talking about winning the division. I mean Derek Shelton did on the record, doubling down he think they may be capable of accomplishing the feat this year.

The players though, yeah. Bryan Reynolds is not a rah rah guy. Not to say he’s a poor teammate or doesn’t have his teammates backs, he’s just not the type to sell hope.

I’ve heard him try mind you. I mean, he knows his role, and he’s done the job of pushing the message, but an actor he’s not. This year, man, wait til you guys see some video (and no, unfortunately, I couldn’t) when he gets asked about the offense or lineup, he almost smiles before he catches himself. Then easily talks to the weaponry around him.

Ke’Bryan looks like he’s enjoying being asked about continuing offensive production instead of Gold Glove snub talk and questions about becoming a productive bat.

One guy that almost every player I talked to about offense brought up unsolicited was Liover Peguero and what many see as big power emerging. I must have heard him within the first 2 or 3 mentions by 5 or 6 different guys, and that usually means something.

I remember in 2022 when asked which player to look out for, Bryan quickly told the reporter, and I believe it was Dejan Kovacevic, but forgive me if I’m wrong there, Jack Suwinski. At the time, Jack was nothing more than a AA camp invite, a month later he was hitting bombs after getting called up to fill in an emergency hole in the Pirates Outfield.

So when I hear other players recognizing someone almost unanimously, it usually bodes well. I can’t express how big it would be for the Pirates if Peguero took a step. Not only would he fill second base well, he provides a competent number 2 at short. Man this could be fun offensively.

I haven’t heard nearly as much overt optimism on the mound, and that quite frankly is concerning, but unsurprising, I mean, you can see what they have. I also heard from almost every single person I asked, yes, they will add more, probably more than you’re expecting. Didn’t even seem like a question to the players, so I’ll say this, if they don’t add, I think we’ll honestly be able to say, the players were not prepared for that, these guys think winning is happening, and they have no illusions the roster is set.

More to come, I’ll probably write several smaller pieces today. All in all, a good event, it was nice to have it back, and great to see friends.

Gary Morgan, Josh Booth, Michael Castrigano, and Ed Wassel. Pirates Fan Forum, Bridge2Buctober, and 412 Double Play Podcasts representing at PiratesFest 2024.

Minor League News And Brews: Pirate Prepare To Cast An International Net

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-5ahi3-1541070

Craig preps Pirates Fans for the upcoming International Signing Period, while addressing some rumors of future commitments and the overall Bonus Pool that the Pirates will have at their disposal. 

Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and is a huge Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball Fan; especially when it comes to the Farm System. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & All Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Minor League Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!