Palacios Big Day Leads Pirates Over Phillies 6-4 (46-58)

07/30/23 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_Ethan on Twitter

The Pittsburgh Pirates always keep things fun, and fun things happened at PNC Park on Sunday as they defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 6-4 in walk off fashion to cap off a series victory against their cross-state rivals.

In what could very well be Rich Hill’s last start as for the Pirates this season with the trade deadline approaching on Tuesday, Hill would go five innings of work with seven strikeouts and two earned runs.

Speaking of those two earned runs, Sunday’s game wouldn’t see a run until the fourth inning, as Alec Bohm, who has historically done well against the Pittsburgh Pirates, would send one over the right-center field wall to give the Phillies a 2-0 lead.

The Pirates offense was held hitless through the first five innings by starter Christopher Sanchez, who would leave the game w/ three strikeouts, two walks and three HBP’s, but nevertheless pitched hitless baseball.

Seranthony Dominguez would relieve Sanchez and things turned to the Pirates favor quickly, as a Connor Joe single would lead to a Bryan Reynolds two-run homer to tie things up. After a Henry Davis walk, Dominguez would leave the game fairly quickly, only recording one out.

Jeff Hoffman would come out to follow Dominguez and allow a base hit Jared Triolo and to birthday boy Josh Palacios to load the bases, but the Pirates failed to add on as Liover Peguero and Nick Gonzales would fail to score anymore runs.

That sequence became crucial in the final innings as Jose Hernandez struggled in his outing and Carmen Mlodinski surrendered two inherited runs from Hernandez but struck out three as the Philles regained a two-run advantage.

The Pirates would answer with a run in the bottom of the seventh, with Joe reaching on an infield error and a Bryan Reynolds single along with a fielding error from Johan Rojas.

Mlodinski would finish the eighth with a strong 1-2-3 inning, dropping his ERA to a 1.82 on the season.

Pittsburgh found a way to tie things up in the eighth as Triolo and Palacios each got on base and Nick Gonzales would pick up a sacrifice fly to tie things at four.

David Bednar would come on in the ninth after his stellar performance Saturday night and keep the Phillies off the scoreboard in the top of the ninth and give the Pirates offense a chance to walk it off.

Craig Kimbrel would allow Joe and Reynolds to reach in the bottom of the ninth with no outs, but Andrew McCutchen, Henry Davis and Jared Triolo failed to score Joe as the winning run and the game would head to extras.

In the top of the 10th, we got one of the more funky putouts you’ll ever see, as Henry Davis held Bryce Harper on a beautiful throw from right field, but Endy Rodriguez caught Bohm in a rundown and Alika Williams would complete the double play by throwing out Harper at home, a 9-2-4-2 double play. Angel Perdomo would complete the inning scoreless in his first appearance since being suspended for plunking Manny Machado.

Josh Palacios would walk it off on his birthday, did I mention it was his birthday? Bottom of the 10th, scoring the inherited runner and the Pirates won the series against the Phillies on Sunday.

Pittsburgh plays again Tuesday against Detroit.

News & Notes

  • Player of the game: Josh Palacios: 3-for-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 2B
  • Winning pitcher: Angel Perdomo: 1.0 IP, 1 H, 1 K
  • Losing pitcher: Andrew Vasquez: 0.0 IP, 2 R, 1 ER
  • Pirates move to 46-58 and end July 8-16

Two Guys Talkin’ Trades-Say Who Now?

7-29-23 – By Justin Verno & Corey Shrader – @JV_PITT and @CoreyShrader on Twitter

Justin Verno- Corey, our work is almost done. The MLB Trade Deadline is fast approaching and soon we will be scouring over the return that Ben Cherington got and if it was worth the price he paid, hopefully. 

Corey Shrader- We are quickly approaching the deadline and until recently we (or I, atleast), have not seen many credibly sourced tidbits relating to the Pirates. But that all changed recently did it?

JV- It sure did. We went from 0 to 60 like Dom Terretto. As we get to the focus of this installment, Jon Heyman broke a little tidbit that directly corresponds to our targets in this piece. 

First this.

Followed by this little gem. 

Way to bury the lead, Jon.

CS- Two Heyman bombs on the same day on the Bucs! I also appreciate the most important part of this is tossed in at the end of the tweet. While it seems unlikely to see the team part with either, they are arguably the two biggest trade chips the team has. It simply must be discussed.

JV- Agreed. We couldn’t ignore this if we wanted to. Why would we? The whole reason Gary has us doing these is for this very thing.  It’d be like Winnie the Pooh ignoring a jar of honey.

Before we get too far into this, how about a disclaimer?

If GM Ben Cherington is to move one of or both of these allstars, the deal would need to not only be an overpay, it’d need to have MLB ready talent or talent that is extremely close to being ready to debut. Not that there aren’t examples of these kinds of deals, there are, but there just aren’t a lot of them. It’s relatively rare. I’m not saying it’s like finding a unicorn, but it is like finding $20 in your coat jacket–it happens, but not all that often.  And with that in mind, I’m not sure either Bednar or Keller get moved.

CS- Of the two, I could see Bednar moved simply due to the fact that RPs, even the very very good ones, are more of a luxury item to non-contending teams. This being said, the team will likely position itself as a divisional contender during the timeframe that Bednar is under team control. We also have to factor in the “hometown guy” thing. It is real. Fans would be pretty darn unhappy unless the return is somewhat astounding and has a certain level of name recognition.

JV- A point that GMBC needs to be aware of, but it can’t factor into Bednar’s trade value.  Speaking of Bednar’s trade value, without further ado…

Bednar Value

If GMBC is to move David Bednar, he can not go by ZiPS projections. 

2024- 0.8

2025-0.6

Bednar has consistently outplayed his projections. 1.2 WAR  in 21, 1.5 WAR in 22 and he sits at 1.7 WAR as Corey and I started to write this.  

Another common talking point is teams don’t give up a package for a closer with control, and I’m not sure that’s entirely accurate. Closers with control don’t get traded a lot. Maybe every three or four years. The last one? Brad hand, who like Bednar had 3+ years of control and was a 1.2-17 WAR closer at the time of the trade.

The differences? Hand was LH. But unlike Bednar, Hand was never a power arm. All in all, Bednar could bring a better return than Hand did in the 2019 Trade Deadline. (Fransisco Mejica was a top 20 prospect). Let’s get to the values I think the Pirates should look at. 

23 ROS WAR0.5
24 WAR1.7
25 WAR1.7
26 WAR1.5
Total WAR5.4
Win Valuex9
Total Value$48.6M
Salary$22
Surplus Vale$26.6M

That’s the SV now the packages. 

CS- I actually think that this idea is a fairly obvious one, and at the risk of being cliche, I will forge ahead with it still. But there is an obvious trade partner here in Tampa Bay.

The Rays typically boast a strong bullpen, but the 2023 iteration has been uncharacteristically poor. Pair this with the fact that they have several well known, “big name” prospects in AAA that are more or less, “ready.”

The deal

Tampa Bay gets: David Bednar, CL/RP SV 26M

Pittsburgh gets: Kyle Manzardo, 1B ETA: 2023, FV 50/SV 28M

Generally, I do not think Tampa Bay would spend resources like this to acquire a bullpen piece. Their organizational reputation is that they turn other team’s trash into treasure. They routinely turn players with either elite pitch traits or high end pedigree into gold. One such example we all saw this year when they sent Alika Williams to the Bucs for Robert Stephenson. The Rays quite frankly do not send prospect capital away for RPs when they can build them. So far that has not really worked as well in 2022 & 2023. I’d just like to note that Stephenson has been pretty terrific in his 16.1 IP for the Rays. As of writing this he has posted a line of:

16.1 IP, 38.1/7.9 K%/BB%, 3.31 ERA, 2.85 FIP, .172 BA against, 0.92 WHIP, 2 holds, 1 win, 1 loss, 1 blown save.

I could see them however make such an investment in an elite level, proven backend piece that is under control for several years.

As for Manzardo, all he has done in his minor league career is hit. Not really noted for his power, his hit tool and quality of contact is among the best in all of the minor leagues. His AAA batted ball data also supports his in-game power being likely to outperform his raw power due to this consistent hard & high quality contact.

Tampa’s top prospects, Manzardo included, are currently blocked by guys that are performing very well at the major league level. They’ve also got another fantastic pair of 1B prospects in the lower minors (Xavier Isaac & Cooper Kinney) who would keep their “1B of the future” pipeline open for either when the day comes for that need.

JV- I’m a Manzardo fan so I love that deal, but considering the market is what it is, is that enough? More on the market later, though. For now let’s stay with Bednar. I’m looking to where the stars at night are big and bright. 

The Deal

The Texas Rangers get-

David Bednar-Closer (SV $26M) and Ji-Hwan Bae-OF/2B/SS/DH (SV $20-30M) 

The Rangers have the look and feel of a real contender. They need to add BP help (including a top notch closer) and with Seager down, Bae would be a crafty little pick up. He can play SS or CF and his speed atop that lineup would be a boost.

Pirates get-

Evan Carter-OF-ETA:2025- FV 50($28M)

Carter has 69 games at AA and he is not at all struggling, so I’m ignoring that ETA. And if I’m being honest, Evan Carter is likely off limits in any trade talks, so Rangers fans please know I understand that. But part of me wonders if Langford makes Carter a guy they would in fact move in the right deal? And could Bednar be the right deal? Anyway, Carter is 20 and the surface has barely been scratched, Kid can play. 

Owen White–SP–ETA:debuted- FV 45($4M)

If this name looks familiar, it’s because it should. I’ve used him before and as recently as last week. It’s hard to know where the Rangers view him in their world.  An untouchable  FV55 prospect to start the season but he really has struggled. TINSTAAPP is certainly in play here? But if the Rangers are willing to include him, it’s a good gamble. 

Marc Church-SIRP-ETA:2024-FV 40+($1M)

Gonna move a back end RP, why not see if you can get his replacement? Church has a lively FB that tops out at 97 MPH. The slider has gotten better and has a 70 FV to go with that 60 FV fastball. What’s the issue with him? Control, control and control, to name three. But I’m pretty sure the Bucs like the FB/SL profile, would you agree? 

Moving Bednar is a tall task, and Evan Carter is the bait I’d take to do just that. 

Keller Value

Keller is a similar boat to Bednar. The Bucs cannot sell him at his current ZiPS projections of 1.9 and 1.8 in 24 and 25 seasons. But I won’t push the bar too high–let’s push it up just a tick.

23 ROS WAR1
24 WAR2
25 WAR2
Total WAR5
Win Valuex9
Total Value$45M
Salary$14M
Surplus Value$31M

Corey, does $31 million sound like a reasonable value for Keller? I think it’s fair to note he’s struggled over a good chunk of the season, but GMBC simply cannot sell him at warehouse pricing. This isn’t Costco. If a GM thinks they can fix what is going wrong with Mitch Keller, then Cherington needs to make him pay full price to pry him away. Otherwise I think it makes more sense to fix Mitch and keep in black and gold.

CS- I think Keller’s price tag estimate here seems fair. The control adds a layer of complexity to this that is hard to capture. I could very well see the SV on a return exceeding this figure as we appear to be in a seller’s market. I am going to head out west to find a possible new home for Mitch.

The Deal

Dodgers get: Mitch Keller, SP SV 31M

Pirates get: Michael Busch, INF ETA: 2023 FV 50 (28M)

                   Nick Frasso, P ETA: 2023 FV 40+ (1M)

                   Josue De Paula, OF ETA: 2026+ 45+ (8M)

The Dodgers have a plethora of injuries at starting pitcher. The Dodgers have a lot of near “ready” depth in the upper minors. Mitch Keller is in the midst of a breakout season. Mitch Keller is under control until 2026. Could we have a match for a suitor? Maybe?

Mitch Keller’s story is one of my favorites in baseball, not just on the Pirates. Had a breakout as a 20 year old in 2016 and rocketed up the minors with only small levels of struggle. He had a debut in 2019 that was unremarkable from a surface stat standpoint, but the underlying details showed that his top prospect status looked well earned. Well, he continued to work, struggle, and most importantly, he continued to improve. I am not sure that I have seen many pitchers try so hard to “breakout.” Mitch appears to have got some things to click in 2023 and he earned himself an All Star roster spot.

He has scuffled of late post-All Star break, but he is still a very gifted pitcher. He throws a kitchen sink arsenal and has many impressive attributes that he flashes regularly from the true 80 grade sweepers to high end velocity and movement profiles on his four-seam fastball. Not to knock the Pirates and what they’ve done sticking by their guy, but it is hard not to drool at the potential Mitch could tap into in the hands of an elite pitching dev organization like the Dodgers.

Michael Busch feels like he has been around forever, but he hasn’t really got a real shot at regular PAs for the Dodgers. In just 51 major league PAs he has not really been very spectacular, but it is too small of a sample to draw much from. He is decimating AAA with a .432 wOBA, 141 wRC+, 265 ISO and a great batted ball profile with an impressive approach in 316 PAs this season. He is defensively limited but has played across the diamond (1B, 2B, 3B) at AAA. The bat should be his carrying tool and he presents a similar profile to a Max Muncy type of player.

Nick Frasso is in the midst of a mini-breakout in 2023. The stuff profile has been impressive since his debut in 2021 and now that he has reached the upper minors the recognition has finally begun to catch up. He has prototypical size at 6’5” 200lbs and boasts an impressive arsenal of a big heater and strong secondaries. There is RP risk there, but it would be imperative that he gets a long look as a starter first.

Josue De Paula was arguably the biggest 2022 DSL performer. While these types are incredibly mercurial and hard to predict sustained success, this is where the true mega-ceiling types come from. He is holding his own stateside as an 18 year old and truth be told, might be “untouchable.” He fits the bill for the type of player that the Pirates would be looking for in return though. His inclusion here is more representative of the sort of prospect profile I’d like to hunt out, but his value on top prospect lists is probably not reflective of the way his home organization views him. Getting him back might mean that also getting Busch & Frasso is unlikely.

JV- That’s an interesting package and one that I feel the Bucs could realistically get for Mitch Keller. In this case, I think I’d like to see GMBC get highway robbery in any Keller deal. As you mention, the market for pitching is hot. How hot? 

The return the Chicago White Sox got for Reynaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito was eye opening. The two combined for about $12-13 million of surplus value as both are rentals. Edgar Quero is a 20 year old C with an FV of 50 ($28M) and that alone would make the deal an overpay. 

Last week the Braves acquired Pierce Johnson. A RHRP rental. His slashline?

ERA 5.90   FIP 4.54  xFIP 4.01  and a WAR of 0.2

His SV is basically breaking even. In return they netted Victor Vodnick SIRP FV 40($M) and a throw-in. That’s a solid return for a BP arm with results below the water mark. 

CS – The only bit I would add here is that there are some things bigger than value at play for the Angels/White Sox move. It is a clear effort on the Halos part to commit to winning right now as an overture to Ohtani and entice him to stay long term.

JV- A solid point. One that leads me to my next deal. It’s time that Chaim Bloom shows he won’t play second fiddle to any team in the AL East. You’re not in Tampa anymore, big guy. Go make a splash.

The Deal

Red Sox get-

Mitch Keller-SP-SV $31M Ji-Hwan Bae 2B/SS/CR

Bloom adds to the rotation and gets his LHH infielder.

Pirates get-

Ceddanne Raefaela-CF-ETA:2024-FV 50($28M)

When signed, there were concerns with the hit tool. Described by FanGraphs as an “immature approach”.  Things started  to fall into place in 2021 when he slashed .251/.305/.424 and it has taken off in the upper systems. This year at AA and AAA he’s killing it.

AA .294/.332/.441

AAA .312/.354/.624

His highest K rate sat at 25%. Whatever he fixed in that approach is working and then some. Best part? He is a silky-smooth CF. This is a guy the Red Sox will not want to give up. 

Kyle Teel-C-ETA:2026-FV 45+($8M)

Being that Kyle was a 1st round pick in this year’s draft, he’ll have to be a PTBNL (ala the Trea Turner rule). Another C, you ask? Yes. Never stop adding up the middle. Kyle has a nice pop time(1.90 sec per FG)and  he is a big presence behind the dish. And despite a funky swing he carries a boom stick. After taking Mitch Jebb the FO has shown they are not opposed to funky swings. I’d call his swing unorthodox more than funky, to be honest. I can see them moving him off C or even flipping him for another MLB player. C always have a solid trade value. 

Blaze Jordan-1B-ETA:2025-FV 40($2M)

Blaze has power all day and that’s the tool that GMBC would be gambling on here. The rest needs a lot of work. Finally the Buccos add a guy that Andy Haines and his teachings could help. This kid needs to learn to take a damn walk. If he can shrink the plate, you’ve got something. Nice third piece in a trade like this. 

Parting Thoughts

JV-Corey, I really wanted to include an arm in a Keller deal, but the more teams I looked at, the less that seemed viable. The Rangers are a team that could do it, but I spent that package on Bednar. Arizona can do that, but then it hurts adding a bat. So I went this route. Both of our deals here would be enticing. They would also leave the Bucs naked and scrambling for SP. 

It just highlights the shortcomings of moving a Keller. It just seems clear to me that getting Keller  right benefits the team better than any package they would get back? 

Unless a team goes all Bruce Wayne in trade, “You wanna get nuts? C’mon! Let’s get nuts!”.

Bednar though? While I love that cat  I do think it’s more realistic to get a deal that could make sense for the home grown player. It may not be the popular move among the fans, but it is at least a more attainable package that I can make sense of. 

CS- This is a tricky road to hoe for the front office. Dealing one or both of these two puts them in a tricky spot. It sort of signals this team is not as near the “end” of a rebuild as they want to be. If the goal is to “win” they need to make a sober analysis of where they are and make moves that might get them in a better position for long term success. The trouble is things like keeping your job and securing your own bag get in the way of those organizational goals at a certain point. This is a discussion for another time though…

All in all, I do not expect to see either sent out of the organization. But I think we have put together a few viable options that would continue to add the pieces that might help build a sustained “window” of good baseball.

Trade Deadline: A Yearly Tradition Continues in Pittsburgh

7-28-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

You’ve watched Carlos Santana play an excellent first base all year. You’ve watched him bat cleanup all season long. You’ve heard Derek Shelton as recently as last week talk about how very important it has been and is to have someone like Carlos Santana in the locker room and dugout.

Then you watch him traded for an 18 year old kid named Jhonny Severino.

The team in 2023 just got worse right?

Just like it always does at deadline time right?

Is Ben Cherington just the proverbial kid with a magnifying glass burning the wings off bugs (aka you)?

Who’s next?

Folks, I’m not going to try to comfort you here. Over the years I’ve explained countless times what a rental player is, I’ve explained why a team might want to go get a lottery ticket too.

The bottom line is this team started hot, raised expectations and then underperformed (including Santana mind you) so badly that they fell completely off the face of the baseball world.

Injuries were involved, poor coaching was involved, playing a ton of kids played a role, but above all, this team reached the deadline right where they have for every season under Ben Cherington.

The only real difference this year, they now have an entire class of players they’ve brought up to the Major League team. So instead of moving “good players” and knowing by in large what’s left on the team is crap, you’re left knowing it’s filled with young kids who you should expect will get better.

Let’s go through each player rumored, and I’ll even toss in Santana because the important thing to understand is why he was available.

Carlos Santana

Again, we know this one is already done, and we already know the return, but why was he available?

I mean, it’s clear they don’t have an internal prospect they feel strongly about playing there, so why not keep him, he was really playing well?

I’ll start here, they could have kept him, I wouldn’t have hated it, but let’s be very very clear, this was a 9 week decision. Carlos Santana isn’t contracted to anyone in 2024, so if he is indeed an answer, someone this team wants to get back in this room, they can, just like anyone else pursue him in free agency again.

So the calculation is very simple. Is it worth more to this club to keep Carlos for those 9 weeks or to bring in a lottery ticket?

Lottery Ticket? We’ve all heard the term when it comes to baseball, but why, what do we mean by that? Easy, a player like Jhonny Severino is classified as a lottery ticket because it’s a long shot that you “win” this trade, but at the end of the day if it costs a dollar (9 weeks) and the prize could wind up being a complete bust or you could be the lucky winner of a shiny new Oneil Cruz type talent (he too was a lottery ticket exchanged for Tony Watson), many clubs consider it a worthy and minimal risk.

Why couldn’t the Pirates get something they need at the MLB level in exchange for this player who clearly was good? We’re talking statistically the best 1B defensively in the league this year, and a solid switch hitting bat here.

Again, it’s that 9 weeks, and it’s also the types of teams that are in the market for a guy like Carlos.

Teams interested, well they’re in it, or close to in it, and they’re paying for a rental. How likely is it that a team that’s in it has a major league pitcher available to send back? Are they going to give you a near MLB first baseman, for 9 weeks of a veteran?

That 9 weeks is relative.

Lets say you’re selling 9 weeks of someone like Lucas Giolito, well, if he’s right, that’s a real starting rotation piece. In those 9 weeks he’ll give you 13-14 starts likely, and more importantly, he’s a guy you could start in game 2 of a playoff series. Carlos could play every game and start every game of a playoff series of course, but there are a lot more Santana’s out there than there are Giolito’s.

Still, the return for Giolito was a bit closer to the league, but still risky prospect.

Think of it like this, imagine you could sell a leased car. The value is different if you have 18 months left vs 9 months right? The value is different if you’ve taken care of it or it’s a really hot model, vs a car you haven’t changed the oil on and ran into a guard rail. Either way you’re selling something you don’t really own, and the person acquiring it, well, they’re acquiring the rights to use it for however long you have left on the lease.

Keep him? Again, sure could have, the lottery ticket is probably not crucial to the cause, but make no mistake, there’d be no reason aside from making you feel better, and maybe make a few players happy. Moving him could make a few players happy too if you catch my drift, this dude was the cleanup hitter like all year, now someone else will get those opportunities.

Bottom line, Carlos is 37, will of course be 38 next year. The likelihood that he’d be the best the Pirates could or should do in 2024 is about as high as Jhonny up there turning into a shorter Cruz.

Rich Hill

43 years old. It’s incredible that Rich Hill has done what he’s done for as long as he’s done it. I’ve said before, I wouldn’t trade him, if only because this team has lost Roansy Contreras and Luis Ortiz to underperformance, Mike Burrows, JT Brubaker and Vince Velazquez to Tommy John, they now have Mitch Keller struggling to hold onto the brilliance he found early in the season, an emerging and adjusting Johan Oviedo, Osvaldo Bido who probably isn’t a starter long term and is being given the opener treatment, and Quinn Priester who probably isn’t a guy who is going to light the world on fire until he learns to be a bit more crafty.

All that said, a lefty pitcher at this time of year, well, let’s just say he’ll draw more than Santana did interest wise.

I won’t repeat all the 9 weeks stuff, but rest assured, it applies.

If it was clear that Rich was like the 4th or 5th guy, and holding someone back I’d be all for moving him, but he isn’t. On this team he’s solidly number 2 or 3 and moving him is going to force this team to push someone like Jared Jones into action. Or to recall Ortiz before he’s actually unlocked what they were trying to unlock.

This is a situation that to me is different, much like moving Jose Quintana last year, so long as you have a plan for who takes the innings, and you like it, have at it. I love what they’ve gotten out of Oviedo whom they acquired for Quintana, but bluntly folks, that kind of return isn’t likely for Hill.

First, he hasn’t been nearly as good as Q was, second, he’s 43, rarely has played an IL free season, and he hasn’t landed on there this entire year which probably scares some teams.

If the return is similar to what they got for Santana, I personally think they get more out of just keeping him for the rest of the way.

I don’t expect the Pirates to agree with me.

Austin Hedges

I can’t see an obvious market here. Trading for zero bat guys isn’t something many competing teams will look to do.

If he has a selling point, it’s probably that he has a reputation for improving pitchers, and no doubt a group of veteran pitchers in the league who would love to throw to him down the stretch.

The return wouldn’t matter, to you or the team, if someone wants him, even for cash, I’m quite sure the Pirates would happily move him.

Bad players, overtly bad, don’t matter, aren’t’ easily moved, and almost never return anything that matters.

If they don’t move him, he’ll be a coach basically, and if he played 10 more games this year I’d be kinda shocked. In fact, when they start using Henry behind the dish (yes, they will) I wouldn’t be shocked to see the team just entirely bench him if not DFA.

Mitch Keller

This isn’t’ happening.

Mitch has 2 years of team control left, is just coming into his own, still young enough that extending him makes sense and on top of that he’s open to it and the two sides have already discussed it.

As has been said countless times now, you listen to everything. If a team calls, you listen. Why? Well, for one, what if they’re really really desperate and offer something insane? For another thing, when you hear them out, you’ll at the very least get a list of prospects that this team is ok moving. You never know when that intel might matter.

The Pirates can’t do this though, unless it would be so one sided even national reporters would call it an obvious overpay, because with this move, there’d be no avoiding the club admitting this rebuild isn’t in a good place.

You’d have to “sell” that this franchise is going to go out and buy 3 starting pitchers in 2024, and 2 of them are going to be Mitch quality or better, or the rebuild is set back.

I don’t believe them to be in this head space, more importantly, having heard some of the asks, yeah, no team is that stupid folks.

David Bednar

Different than Mitch.

Let’s just be honest, closers are hot at deadline time and teams tend to feel they’re more easily replaced than a starter. It would still be a set back moment, but again they could get a crazy offer, and it’s hard to argue a closer is irreplaceable.

I’d love to tell you this front office has learned from having Cutch around how important a hometown guy can be for the fan connection aspect of this whole thing, but at the same time I can’t sit here and advise extending a closer with a history of back issues much beyond his existing years of control.

Point is, if not trading the hometown kid is your only defense for why this should never happen, brace yourself, cause the day will come. Closers don’t usually stay closers for 10 years.

I don’t see it this year, but I’ll admit, I’ve seen a couple rumored offers that I’d have a very hard time saying no to.

Ji-man Choi

He’s just about in the same boat as Santana, except due to injury he’s only played in 20 games and has 64 at bats.

The Pirates were fine to move one of these guys, I’m not sure they should be fine moving both, especially as it looks like the Pirates will have to again sign a free agent first baseman in 2024.

Ji-man is 32, so if he’s a guy who you could sign for a couple seasons to provide a good bat off the bench worst case and a starting first baseman best case, it might be wise to keep him around.

If he’s moved, expect a very similar return to what they got for Santana.

I wouldn’t, and to be completely fair, had they traded Ji-man I’d advise the same for Santana. I wrote long ago they should move one of them, but I wouldn’t move both.

Conclusion

Bottom line, if you want this to stop being a thing, the team needs to stay in contention into later in July.

This isn’t about “they never keep…” because these guys by in large aren’t theirs to keep.

I understand the micro “good player gets traded, me sad” effect to it, but geez, I think I wrote in April the mix of players who might be trade bait regardless of performance, and they’re all here except JT Brubaker and Vince Velazquez.

It’s hardly a surprise.

That doesn’t mean you should shut up and enjoy it, it just means have a little perspective, the 2023 season always was, but now 100% is about youth, and this time youth that is supposed to matter.

This offseason needs to look different than we’ve seen. If it doesn’t I’ll be just as honest about that failure as I have been about some of this procedural crap we’ve watched waiting for all these prospects to arrive.

Top 15 Plus 5 More

7-27-23 – By Justin Verno – @JV_PITT on Twitter

1–Endy Rodriguez-

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
AAA.268/.356/.415.771.147.3479411.4%14.9%
MLB.176/.222/.412.634.235.269665.6%50%
Week

2-Henry Davis-

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%k%
AA.284/.433/.547.980.264.44116617.1%18.7%
AAA.286/.432/.514.946.150.42214210.2%24.2%
MLB.284/381/.451.832.167.36312911%18.6%
Week.300/.417/.6501.067.350.43617716.7%12.5%

3-Termarr Johnson–

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
A.255/.416/.463.879.208.41514320.4%27.8%
Week.304/.414/.478.892.174.41414313.8%10.3%

4-Quinn Priester-

IPERAFIPXFIPWHIPBB%K%
AAA87.24.313.864.291.369.3%22.4%
MLB5.111.818.534.871.698%8%
Week

5-Liover Peguero–

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
AA.260/.333/.453.786.193.32611310.1%18.2%
AAA.259/.333/.556.889.296.37611210%10%
MLB.071/.071/.143.214.071.089-540%71.4%
Week

6-Mike Burrow-(season over)

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
AAA6.22.707.396.220.908%12%

7-Bubba Chandler–

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
A735.795.031.7512.3%26.6%
Week10.20.002.230.7510.3%35.9%

8-Jared Triolo–

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwWRC+BB%K%
A.293/.403/.436.839.143.38211615.7%27.7%
MLB.288/.338/.315.653.027.294826.3%31.3%
Week.261/.261/.261.522.000.231400%34.8%

9-Jared Jones–

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
AA44.12.233.424.151.088.9%26.3%
AAA28.15.083.034.541.278.3%28.1%
Week44.504.591.2511.1%22.1%

10-Yordany De Los Santos–

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
CPX.328/.397/.463.860.134.4081259%14.1%
A.368/.429/.7891.218.421.5322149.5%28.6%
Week.400/.444/.533.978.133.4561520%11.1%

11-Thomas Harrington–

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
A392.773.763.861.108%26.7%
A+41.14.793.593.891.486.1%28.9%
week55.401.531.404.8%33.3%

12-Kyle Nicolas–

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPPBB%K%
AA53.24.364.394.251.479.6%26.4%
AAA18.110.316.214.952.2915.2%29.3%
Week3.27.367.412.1816.7%22.2%

13-Colin Selby–

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
AAA27.13.292.89 1.2413.7%32.5%
Week20.000.590.500%50%

14-Carlos Jimenz-(NO STATS)

IPERAFIPxFIPBB%K%

15-Tony Blanco jr

BA/OB/SLGOPSISOwOBA+wRC+BB%K%
DSL.299/.389/.494.882.199.41712813.3%32.2%
Week.500/.500/.800.1.300.300.5642098.3%33.3%

MY FIVE

16-Anthony Solometo

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
A+58.22.303.193.741.1610.7%29.1%
AA23.23.043.153.281.0610.7%29.8%
Week4.25.793.671.505%35%

17-Nick Gonzales

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
AAA.257/.370/.450.820.193.36610611.1%28.6%
MLB.250/.295/.409.704.304.365893.2%26.3%
Week.273/.333/.364.697.091.311934.2%20.8%

18-Jun-Seok Shim-No Stats

IPERAFIPxFIPWHIPBB%K%
CPX5.11.693.321.490.565.3%52.6%
Week

19-Tsung-Che Cheng

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
A+.308/406/575.980.266.43516413.8%18.5%
AA.229/.261/.253.514.024.239414.5%20.5%
Week.261/.261/.261.522.000.240410%4.3%

20-Enmanuel Terrero

BA/OBP/SLGOPSISOwOBAwRC+BB%K%
A.270/.372/.422.794.152.37612013%26.3%
Week.130/.200/.391.591.261.266538%40%

A Few quick thoughts-

First we say congrats-

Endy Rodriguez was freed! Congrat Endy!

Liover Pegeuro, congrats.

Quinn Priester, congrats.

Blue wave

A lot of blue up there. A lot. But it’s the fist week after the break so let’s not lose our cool here. I won’t get weighted down in those numbers. Instead….

Turn and face the change…

We are about to see a massive overhaul here. Every year there are changes to a systems rankings but we could see a huge jumble here.

Paul Skenes will likely be the top guy.

Henry Davis will hit 150 trips to the plate in the 7-10 games.

Triolo is raking up those plate appearances as well.

Gonzales joins that group.

On the way up?

Jared Jones.

Thomas Harringington.

Anthony Solometo.

Enmanuel Tererro.

Yordanny De Los Santos.

Sean Sullivan.

Downward spiral?

Quinn Priester.

A few names that would likely be on the rise but injuries or recovery got in the way….

Carlos Jimenez.

Jun-Seok Shim.

Hunter Barco.

Braxton Ashcroft.

Keep an eye on those names as they grow their innings

Hump Day Pirates Q&A

7-26-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Good questions as always everyone. Lots of frustration out there as we all should feel at times, appreciate the thoughtful questions that see through it.

Question 1

Correct me if I’m wrong and explain why, but is it not the goal of a team to win games? Providing innings is half the battle. If Hill is traded wins will be a challenge. If he’s not, wins for this ball club will continue to be elusive. I get the bullpen will be taxed. But does it matter? At this juncture of the season? Where the team currently stands? After Priester’s last start it looks like he has the “stuff” to be that innings eater Pirates need should Cherington trade Hill. – Teddy BagODonuts

First, there isn’t a “wrong” here, it’s opinion. The Pirates are 11.5 games back in the division, unless they go on another 20-8 run, we’re talking more about how much they improve over 2022 as opposed to making a playoff spot.

Innings and who gives them especially when you’re at a point where it truly isn’t about winning a playoff berth anymore changes. To use your example, Quinn Priester could and probably will give them plenty of innings, but he’s already here, so it’s kind of silly to believe he’s replacing someone who also is currently here.

Jared Jones is looking good, but do you really want to start his clock this year? And that in and of itself isn’t entirely genuine. His stuff plays, but is he “ready”? Maybe.

All I can really say here is, if I don’t think they’ll get much in return for Hill (I don’t), I’d rather just abuse him and not have to force anything.

Question 2

What’s his [Jared Jones] upside long term in your opinion? Front of the rotation potential possibly? – KalebL

His stuff is truly elite Kaleb, but he is still improving. I honestly think he has the arm, makeup, pedigree and stuff to over time become a top of the rotation guy. Now, this is going to sound weird, but maybe not on this team.

No, I don’t mean they’re going to trade him, I mean on a team that could have Skenes and Keller headlining, Jones will at least early on slot in more toward the middle.

Question 3

Ideally what would you like to find out from all of these young Bucs that are getting called before the season ends? -JGOR492

For most of them John, I just want them to get all the ‘welcome to the league rook’ crap out of their systems. On the mound, just keep progressing, keep seeing new situations, learning how the stuff plays, how it doesn’t, and be prepared to make offseason adjustments and tweaks.

The position players, really I’d just like to see them just continue to get acclimated. I’d prefer that happen with a new hitting coach, but since there’s nothing they can do about that, I’ll settle for seeing them see the ball and make good progress toward being seen as an incumbent as opposed to and endless deli counter taking numbers one after the other.

In other words, I want guys to grab positions and hold them.

Question 4

Do you think Cruz moves off of SS in the near future with the other options they have currently playing the position? – David Wald

Let’s take his health out of the equation, none of us can know what effect that has. If it’s just normal Oneil Cruz, I think the only player I’ve seen truly look the part is Peguero. He has an exciting bat, but I’m not sure he can compete with Cruz for impact.

They have options as you said, but I’m not sure they have any that rise to the level of what I, and many others feel Cruz ultimately can reach.

ALL that being said, it’s hard for me to fathom he stays at SS through his entire career. That’s an awful lot of body and as he bulks, I think he’ll slow a bit, at least the twitchy speed that is needed to field a middle of the diamond spot.

Question 5

What if… Oneil Cruz had never broken his ankle? Where would the team be in the standings? Who might still be in the minors? What would his stats be? – Brian Croasman

Liover Peguero is fairly obvious, but going even farther back, I wonder what that would have done to Castro, who probably should have never been asked to try and play the position. Marcano may have spent more time in AAA.

As to the record, probably a bit better, maybe 5-7 games, but not just because of him, more because of what he would have done to the rest of the lineup. Hard to say on stats, that’s part of what was so exciting about 2023, we were finally going to see what a full season could bring. Would the league figure out the code for just avoiding his bat? Maybe.

Question 6

Who do you think is the long term guy for 1B? I love Santana and Choi, but Santana seems more likely to be a deadline piece and while Choi can be a good fit, his recent injury has me worried. Do you think we flip someone internal to 1st or try and grab someone in the offseason? – JWELDON19

Santana and Choi aren’t likely answers for next year. Neither are under team control. I have doubts Santana will even play another year, let alone here.

Truth be told, I don’t think we have anyone I’m ready to label as 1B, and certainly not “long term”. They have plenty who can play there, but I’m not sure that’s the best use of their talents. Triolo, Endy, Joe, and they could probably decide to teach Davis to play there if they so chose. My answer here is probably both. I think they bring one in, and I think they move a bat they like over there too.

Question 7

What is happening with Shim hasn’t pitched in a month and no news has been posted. – MZlylinski

He had an ankle concern early on before making his debut. Considering he went 4 in his first start and 1.1 in the next it stands to reason something happened. That said, the FCL, his current league has no obligation to report injury detail, but it sounds like he was pulled from that game after trainers visited the mound and it would appear to be some sort of pec concern. I’d imagine not severe or he’d be on the IL.

Question 8

In a season now defined by needing to see young players develop at the big league level why not have Suwinski take as many at bats as possible against left handed pitching? Does situational hitting even get taught in this system? – Robert Hagelin Jr.

The only “situation” taught is to work counts. Now, Jack, all I can say is much like Castro earlier in the year, there was a period of time where they ignored all splits and just had them try it out.

For Jack, I think eventually it became worth it, he learned to spit on a whole bunch of pitches and drew a ton of walks.

I agree with you, I’d just play him right now and see what he can do, but they could very well have identified something they have in the lab they think could help him do better than just be pesky against lefties, and they may not be ready to have him test it in games.

Just a guess, it could just as easily be that they simply didn’t see him hitting or even threatening to hit a guy like Snell.

I don’t believe the plan moving forward is to make Jack a platoon player though, maybe just not a guy who starts against Kershaw, Snell, or pick your left handed poison.

Question 9

The young kids have shown up ready to swing when they step to the plate. Strikeouts are down to single digits on a nightly basis. Are we seeing a change in philosophy, some accountability on the hitting side or is it simply better talent? – Voice From the Graves

Well, as I mentioned on the Pirates Fan Forum this week, I’m hearing some players are requesting their own help from outside, that usually doesn’t bode well for the internal options.

For one thing Graves, a bunch of these kids kinda had the reputation of being free swinging, and thankfully, they haven’t beaten it out of them.

I’m also sure it’s at least partially better talent, for instance, Henry Davis I don’t believe is a guy who is ever going to have a hitting coach adversely effect him, he simply knows what he wants to do up there already, and it’s hard to say it’s not effective.

Change of philosophy, no, I’m afraid not. The organizational philosophy (as we’ll see again in the next question) is to work counts, get the starter out of the game at all costs. Far too often that leads to a smart starter attacking the zone, dispatching of guys quickly and handing it to a bullpen late enough that the plan has entirely backfired.

I don’t believe that philosophy to be trademarked by Andy Haines. Until it changes though, this offense will always have a faux cap on their ceiling.

I’d also suggest, when they face strikeout pitchers, they’re still striking out a ton. What their philosophy does is create strikeout pitchers out of pitch to contact guys.

Question 10

Why do the Bucs force the “organizational philosophy” for all? It seems more logical that players would be coached according to their strengths. – Kevin Conforti

This is oversimplified, but still largely true.

I think it’s fair to say all MLB teams have some overriding philosophies they like to instill on their players. For the Yankees, it’s swing big, swing often, and swing only at what you think you can pound. It’s the classic walk, walk, dinger philosophy. For the Cardinals it’s literally, stay ready, stay in shape, stay hungry.

When this is discussed for the Pirates, it tends to be about the hitting, but they have it for the pitchers too.

It’s not always bad. Ray Miller, the former Pirates pitching coach famously said “work fast, throw strikes and change speeds” and that worked quite well, even if they had some pitchers who simply weren’t capable of that sort of thing.

I could argue Oscar Marin is more like, and this is my interpretation, Throw strikes, trust your stuff, tunnel your pitch mix.

At the plate, it’s really simple. They have one main goal, get the opposing starter out of the game. What they preach to get that done in and of itself isn’t a bad thing, but the success is so tied to how well that pitcher does, or more accurately how well they control their pitches it takes the power to impact the game away from the bats collectively.

They aren’t teaching Ji-Hwan Bae to hit just like Jack Suwinski. They’re teaching both of them to approach the at bat the same way in so far as trying to have a long at bat, but they aren’t trying to get Bae to hammer a down and in slider 455 feet.

What this philosophy does when applied equally is put almost every batter in the same situation. Standing there with 2 strikes on them, forced to hit what’s pitched. It simply doesn’t work for everyone.

Again, if you asked them, no they don’t teach all these hitters to do the same things, but the situation that their overall approach creates puts hitters in a place where they’re fighting for their lives more often than looking for that pitch they want to hammer.

Blake Snell, Padres Tie Series vs. Pirates Tuesday Night (44-57)

07/26/23 – By Ethan Smith – @mvp_Ethan on Twitter

The Pittsburgh Pirates entered Tuesday night at Petco Park undefeated against the San Diego Padres in 2023, but yet another strong start from Padres starter Blake Snell helped San Diego pick up their first victory against the Pirates this season in a 5-1 victory.

Pittsburgh kicked off the scoring after the offense had a strong Monday showing, with Henry Davis doubling to left-center field and scoring Carlos Santana from first base to give the Pirates an early 1-0 lead, but that would be their only runs of the evening.

Manny Machado immediately followed the Pirates run with a solo shot in the bottom of the second inning that would tie the game while Gary Sanchez singled to score Xander Bogaerts to give the Padres a 2-1 advantage.

The scoring would quiet down until the seventh inning, but the big moment in the game came in the fifth inning as the Pirates loaded the bases following an Austin Hedges infield hit. Connor Joe and Bryan Reynolds would bat back-to-back and both saw the same result as Snell struck out both and left the inning without giving up a run despite a bases loaded, one out jam.

Juan Soto would homer in the seventh off Angel Perdomo, which was followed by Perdomo plunking Machado with a 98 mph fastball, something the Padres nor Machado were happy about. Machado was walked down the line by the home plate umpire with clear frustration and Perdomo along with manager Derek Shelton were ejected following the at-bat.

Dauri Moreta would surrender two more runs in the eighth on a Sanchez two-run homer and that would all she wrote on the Pirates 5-1 loss.

The big story here? The Pirates were 1-for-9 with RISP on the evening and were unable to capitalize in some of the biggest moments of the game, something we’ve become accustomed to over the past few months.

Pittsburgh will look to win the series Wednesday with Johan Oviedo(4.77 ERA) facing Seth Lugo(3.72 ERA).

News & Notes

  • Pirates drop to 44-57 and 11.5 GB of NL Central leading Brewers
  • Alika Williams walks in his first MLB plate appearance in impressive 11-pitch at-bat
  • Chance to go 5-1 on the season v. San Diego Wednesday

Pirates Coaching Decisions And Possible Trade Candidates

https://www.podbean.com/media/share/pb-r3q7i-14645dd

Craig and Chris discuss whether or not Derek Shelton and Andy Haines should be on the hot seat(s), as well as the likely-and maybe not so likely-trade candidates in the Pirates Organization. 

Brought to you by ShopYinzz.com! Craig Toth covers the Pirates for Inside The Bucs Basement, and joins his buddy Chris at a 9-foot homemade oak bar to talk Pittsburgh Pirates Baseball. Listen. Subscribe. Share. We are “For Fans, By Fans & All Pirates Talk.” THE Pirates Fan Podcast found EVERYWHERE podcasts can be found and always at BucsInTheBasement.com!

Santana Homers Twice As Pirates Defeat Padres 8-4 (44-56)

7/24/23- By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on Twitter

The Pirates haven’t won a series in over 3 weeks. In fact, the last series they won was against these San Diego Padres at home, a sweep from June 27-29. After tonight, they have two more shots at securing a series victory as Quinn Priester earned his first win behind some big offense and strong defense.

Hard contact on both sides early but the Friars were first on the board as Ha-Seong Kim, leading off the bottom of the first inning, deposited a 2-1 fastball over the left field fence. Bucs answered back in the first inning. First, with a 1-out blast from Jack Suwinski for his team-leading 21st of the season. And then, a 2-out, full-count shot from Carlos Santana to give the Pirates a 3-1 lead.

Liover Peguero, after making all three outs defensively in the bottom of the 3rd inning, came back with a 2-out, 2-run line drive home run – the first of his career – boosting the score to a 5-1 tally.

Following a strong defensive play, Santana kept fireworks going in the 5th inning with his 2nd 2-run blast of the night. Peguero added to his RBI total with an infield single, driving in Endy Rodriguez from third; however, Tucupita Marcano, attempting to go first-to-third, stepped awkwardly on third base after being tagged out and was down for a while grabbing his right knee.

Padres battled back as Kim swatted another home run, this time a 2-run shot, cutting the deficit to 8-3. But Priester stopped the rally with two quick outs to end the 5th and secured one out in the 6th before his night was done. Final line: 5.1 innings, 4 hits, 4 runs, 3 walks, 4 strikeouts in 89 pitches (50 strikes). He also made Juan Soto look very silly on this pitch:

Southpaw Ryan Borucki came on in relief and, after getting the 2nd out on a fielders choice, gave up an RBI double to Luis Campusano. He retired the next batter and got the first out in the 7th before he was lifted for righty Carmen Mlodzinski. Mlodzinski finished off the 7th and 8th inning before turning it over to Colin Holderman for the 9th, who shut it down for the 44th win of the season for the Pirates. 

News & Notes

  • Priester earned his first major league win, becoming the youngest Pirates starting pitcher to earn a win since Gerrit Cole on June 28, 2013.
  • For Santana, this was his first multi-home run game since September 19, 2021.
  • Marcano came out of the game in the bottom of the 5th with Nick Gonzales replacing him. It was reported in the 8th inning that he was removed due to a “ligamentous injury.”
  • Outside of Petco Park, Kim’s two home runs would both be gone at only Wrigley Field.
  • Former Pirate Jung Ho Kang was in the stands and made an impressive catch on this foul ball.
  • Endy Rodriguez notched his first caught stealing as he nabbed Kim trying to take second in the 7th inning.
  • Pirates try to keep the bats hot with game 2 tomorrow night. Rich Hill takes the bump facing MLB ERA leader, Blake Snell. First pitch is at 9:40PM. Let’s Go Bucs!

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – Where is the Winning?

7-24-23 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

All season long, well, after the initial shot out the gate anyway, the Pirates have struggled on offense.

You’ll see people call for Andy Haines to be fired, and Derek Shelton of course, but you don’t see nearly as much about Oscar Marin. Honestly, this is my order of concern as well. To me, Haines is the priority to move on from, Shelton next and then if you still feel you need more changed, Marin.

Thing is, I just don’t feel the same way about Marin as those other two and then to make this weirder than just that opinion, I can honestly say, I’m far more concerned about the pitching staff in 2024 than I am the offense.

Even in this series that just concluded against the Angels, the Pirates scored some runs. The Pirates young bats provided enough runs to win 3 games and this time were let down by the pitching. That hasn’t been a theme all year, pitching has been ahead of the game, but heading into next season that staff has by far the most questions or holes to answer or fill.

Lets dig in.

1. The Offense Build

One of the benefits of getting to this point in a rebuild is knowing most of the pieces that should be in play come Spring.

Don’t get me wrong, the Pirates will add free agents, but building is all about developing enough internally to hopefully bolt on some pieces and do something.

We know the Pirates will likely head North next April with 13 position players and before we get into free agency, this is what looks to make up those 13.

Henry Davis (C, RF, DH)
Endy Rodriguez (C, OF, 2B, 1B, DH)
Bryan Reynolds (OF)
Jack Suwinski (OF)
Ke’Bryan Hayes (3B)
Jared Triolo (3B, Anywhere)
Nick Gonzales (2B, SS)
Liover Peguero (SS, 2B)
Connor Joe (OF, INF)
Ji-Hwan Bae (CF, INF)
Rodolfo Castro (INF)
Tucupita Marcano (INF, OF)
Alika Williams (INF)
Oneil Cruz (SS, DH)
Canaan Smith-Njigba (OF)
Malcom Nunez (INF)

And, Cutch (DH) this one isn’t in ink, but it’s mighty close.

All of that still leaves holes. 1B, maybe a veteran Catcher, maybe an established corner outfielder.

All told, I listed 17 players whom I all think will be here, under team control, and of course, that’s too many players for a 13 man section of the 26-man.

We’ll all hear “spend money” and I’m certainly not saying there is no room for upgrade, but who from that list are you ready to say shouldn’t start in MLB? Keep in mind, you’ll have the rest of this season to help inform your decision. Maybe the rest of 2023 knocks a name or two off that list. Maybe it strengthens one of them in your eyes.

The rest of this year needs to be geared toward that, so at the deadline the Pirates have some choices to make. Do they hold on to guys like Choi, Santana for their sheer competence, or do they clear the space to start getting more at bats for some of the members of that list?

These players ARE going to be here, and how good the Pirates get in 2024 will largely go through their growth.

To me, the real room for spending on this club is at 1B and the pitching staff, but it’s hard to deny the Pirates middle infield has been unproductive in 2023 as it’s amassed a negative WAR collectively. Those numbers are there, those numbers are true, but they’re also combined numbers from guys like Castro, Marcano, Bae, Mathias, Owings and I’m not sure they reflect on what the Pirates will likely enter Spring thinking of as most likely to break camp. That’s going to look more like Peguero, Gonzales and Cruz. 2 of which of course just got here and one who was conspicuously missing all year.

When we generally look at the overall record and claim no progress has been made, I’m afraid situations like this have been largely ignored.

I think there has been progress, I just think it’s really untested. When the season started, bluntly, it was hard to see where at bats for Marcano, Bae, Castro were all going to come from. We thought we’d see Cruz of course and a carousel at 2B. Note, I didn’t even mention Peggy or Gonzo. Getting them at bats didn’t seem likely to me at all this year.

What could have happened, did, and we got to see all these guys get significant shots, and we’ll see them get more as the season wraps. The hope is this opportunity helps them learn about some of these players in a more complete and well rounded fashion during 2023.

Oh it hurt the record, for sure. It made it at times look like they had no answers. As we enter 2024 I think they’ll be stronger for having gone through it, maybe smarter too about who should and shouldn’t be counted on.

2. The Pitching Build

This is in my eyes the place this team will have no choice but to spend to fill. If the intension is to win in 2024, and by win I mean good faith press for a playoff spot and the division, I see no way to avoid a major investment.

Pitching staffs are always formed almost as much by what is available as what is under team control. Every year guys go down with season ending injuries, and every year guys come back from them and that is where we’ll see the 2024 Pittsburgh Pirates start their journey.

In camp, Mitch Keller, Johan Oviedo, Luis Ortiz, hopefully Roansy Contreras, Max Kranick, Quinn Priester and Jared Jones could all feasibly be in contention for rotation spots.

A team like this that knows 2024 is go time for competing needs to make sure they have real depth. Again, I see no way short of trading for it, or signing it. I think they need 2, and I think that allows for some more kids to enter the conversation as the season plays out.

Paul Skenes will be in this mix too of course, but even so, that’s a lot of youth, too much I’d argue for a team who is supposed to be challenging for the division.

It’s funny again, they haven’t hit most of the year, and yet moving forward, I’m much more concerned about this aspect of the club.

Maybe that’s because I just don’t trust them to spend, maybe it’s because I don’t like the field of free agents too. Either way, they can feasibly enter the 2024 campaign with no offensive upgrades and “sell” that there is optimism and improvement baked into the unit they’ll push forward. They can’t do the same on the mound. They must acquire proven talent and not in solely a placeholder fashion.

We haven’t seen Ben Cherington make one move, aside from Joe maybe, where the acquisition was both meant for MLB right now and there was an eye toward that player being part of this thing beyond that upcoming trade deadline.

Time for that to change, specifically in this area.

If they don’t, a whole lot of people who didn’t believe this thing was on track will assuredly be proven correct.

3. Dime a Dozen, Bednar is Not

I hate the phrase “Closers are a Dime a Dozen”. Don’t get me wrong, no matter how bad your team is they’ll have someone who you deem your best reliever and they’ll pitch the 9th, but truly good closers, well they my friends are a differnt animal.

David Bednar is a truly good closer, and no, they don’t just grow on trees.

They also don’t last most of the time.

You aren’t going to like this, but under team control through 2026, David Bednar is kinda right in that gray area. I wouldn’t be super comfortable extending him much beyond 2028, and yet if they don’t you’d have to think moving him in 2026 would have to be on the table.

Ideally you have a Brewers situation where you have the next guy groomed and can easily move on, but you can’t get locked in on a huge contract to a guy who could literally fall off the table at any moment.

The Pirates will listen on Bednar because desperation makes teams offer and do stupid things, but this team isn’t’ in position to sell an answer and not get one back.

Let me firmly state this, I don’t think there is much chance Bednar is moved at this deadline. The Pirates don’t have answers to even sniff replacing him and they also need him next year. Making a trade make sense for the Bucs this year would entail getting MLB ready talent in exchange. A starting pitcher, a first baseman, a power hitting corner outfielder, things like that.

Now, what team that is in the hunt has that laying around?

I think it’s a tough marriage to try to arrange this year. Mainly because the Pirates can’t just take 2 highly touted prospects with ETA’s of 2026 and 2027, they need a return that would effect this team now or at the latest 2024.

And even that discounts that now you have another hole opened up that this team I already said I don’t trust to spend has to open the wallet for.

Can they find a Jason Grilli from the waiver wire and turn him into a closer? Sure. Can it work? Has in the past. That said, Jason Grilli wasn’t brought here to close, nor was Evan Meek, nor was Mark Melancon, nor was Richard Rodriguez.

I don’t think this team will ultimately get a return that sways them here, not this year, but you sure as hell have to make a decision on Bednar. Extend him a couple years to keep the value up, or use him hard in 24 and 25 then look to move him to restock the stores.

For every long term closer like Rivera, Hader, Hoffmann, there are 35 who were fire for 4 years and burned out. That’s the nature of the beast, and the position.

Bednar being a hometown kid is going to make this painful, probably regardless of how it’s handled.

History tells me though, this probably isn’t Teke.

4. The Record Can’t Change What’s Next

This team has blown a historic run at the starting gate. It’s over. 20-8 was fun, and they could have done some things internally to steady the ship a bit earlier, but what’s done is done.

It also doesn’t’ effect what this team is going to try to do in 2024. Regardless of who you compare this team to, the fact is they’ll expect this core of players to largely return, improve and contribute to a winning club next year.

Baltimore draws a ton of comparisons, and rightly so, they tore it down to the studs, arguably more than the Pirates who stubbornly held on to Reynolds, Keller and Hayes. They could have bottomed out even further. Even so, in year four of their widely panned and praised rebuild they lost 110 games, which this Pirates team won’t do, even in the most dire of predictions.

The Bucs get compared to last year, 2 games ahead of last year at this time I believe currently. But that honestly doesn’t matter either.

This team is on a path, it may not work, I made several arguments for what they need to do to get there in last week’s 5 Thoughts, but in their minds, onboarding a ton of rookies wasn’t going to net them a playoff berth in 2023. They expected to improve, but not dramatically.

This offseason they will have to address the holes I laid out up there in points 1 and 2, but more than anything, they need some of these kids to come to camp net year looking like more than kids.

I stand firm, by the end of this season you’ll like the team much more than you did in April, and I say that knowing full well it’s highly unlikely they end with a 20-8 flurry.

When we talk about filling holes and getting this roster in order for go time, they can’t ignore that coaching has been a big issue. Getting kids acclimated to the league is hard, allowing them to blossom and become the best they can be has to happen every day in the dugout, I don’t believe that to be happening often enough under this group.

This isn’t 2021, we aren’t waiting on 10 kids from Greensboro anymore. The first wave is all here and once you get to that point, the game changes. Moves are for now, decisions are for now, signings are for now. Free agents aren’t acquired to be beaten out, they’re acquired to contribute.

Different conversations than most Pirates fans have been having, and for some (including national media) it’ll take a minute to sink in. This team will still trade players, but they won’t do it with their eyes trained on a system and the hope that one day in the next 4 years that player helps while the MLB team suffers.

A market like this does a rebuild in this fashion for expressly this reason. To build depth, depth you can move to augment the MLB product and cast a wide enough net to be good in the first place.

It may not work, but that’s the idea. Spend the offseason ignoring it and you’ll not understand a damn thing they do this Winter. Return this coaching staff intact and I won’t either.

5. NL Central at the Deadline

Pirates: Ji-man Choi, Carlos Santana, Rich Hill and if you find someone who is actively on a peyote trip Austin Hedges. These are the Pirates most realistic moves at the deadline. Outside shot at Bednar, but again, I don’t see it.

Cubs: The Cubs are interesting. I could see them moving some relievers, Marcus Stroman, Cody Bellinger, Kyle Hendricks, Yan Gomes, maybe even Drew Smyly. They seem to recognize they aren’t where they want to be and some of these are realsy use them or lose them situations.

Brewers: They should win the division, so looking at who they have on expiring contracts is probably misleading. That said, I could see them moving Jesse Winker, Victor Caratini, Julio Teheran. A real shock would be Burnes or Woodruff, but they’d be shooting themselves in the foot for this year, and the only reason to do it would be realizing they aren’t going anywhere in the playoffs. Probably not where they are mentally.

Reds: The Reds don’t have to do anything, in fact, if I were a fan that’s what I’d do. they’re early and they probably know it. Still, they have some smaller vet pieces I could see them parting with. Curt Casali, Luke Weaver, Nick Senzel, Buck Farmer, Luke Maile, and if he gets healthy, Kevin Newman. Nothing earth shattering. They could go hard at it, but man, I wouldn’t, they’re poised to have a cheap, young and exciting base to bolt onto, I’d play the long game here, but hey, Cincy gonna Cincy.

Cardinals: This could look like chaos in St. Louis. A team that is always bolting on at the deadline are clearly sellers for the first time in quite a while. Jordan Montgomery, Jack Flaherty, Tyler O’Neill, Chris Stratton, Jordan Hicks, Dakota Hudson, Paul DeJong, I mean, if they want to really make a splash and don’t think next year will be much better they could even move Goldschmidt who will be a free agent in 2025.

Different teams in different stages of rebuild. Some expected fully to be sellers, others surely thought they’d be adding, but the truth is, the Pirates probably have the most boring deadline pieces in the division this year.

Keller Struggles Again as Pirates Lose 7-5 (43-56)

7/23/23- By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on Twitter

With a chance to win their first series in over 3 weeks, sending All-Star Mitch Keller to face former Pirate and struggling southpaw, Tyler Anderson, seemed like a favorable matchup for Pittsburgh. Unfortunately, there have been very few favorable days for the Bucs this season – though, the Bucs started off strong as Reynolds hit a 2-0 fastball 422 feet to dead center to lift the team to an early 1-0 lead.

But, as is often the case, that lead didn’t last long as the current MLB leader in home runs did this (112.9 MPH off the bat!):

Keller had some strong moments during the game, striking out 7, but left a number of pitches up and surrendered hard contact with six batted balls hit at 99 MPH or higher. In the 2nd inning, noted Pirate-killer, Mike Moustakas, doubled to lead off the inning, moved to third on a single by catcher Matt Thaiss and scored on a double from Eduardo Escobar.

It stayed quiet until the 5th inning when the Angels unloaded on Mitch. First pitch of the inning: home run to Andrew Velazquez. Second pitch: home run to Luis Rengifo. Then, he walked Ohtani on 4 pitches before Mickey Moniak and Taylor Ward hit back-to-back singles to add a run. Thaiss would hit a sacrifice fly later in the inning as the final run of the frame, but the damage was done and so was Keller. Final line: 5 innings, 9 hits, 6 runs, 1 walk, 7 strikeouts and 3 home runs surrendered – the most he’s allowed in any start of his career.

On the other side of the ball, Anderson had a solid start for the Angels, working into the 7th inning for only the second time this season but was unable to record an out in the frame. Nick Gonzales led off with an infield single before Liover Peguero notched his first extra base hit and RBI of his MLB career.

Peguero would later score on a bit of an odd error, as reliever, Jacob Webb, didn’t field a throw back from the catcher and Peggy took advantage.

Carlos Santana would add on, driving in two with a double to center and bringing the tying run up to the plate, but Henry Davis struck out swinging and the Pirates were unable to bring home any runs after that.

News & Notes

  • Davis keeps his on-base streak going, now at 12 games.
  • As Jason Mackey points out, Keller’s struggles have preceded the All Star break.
  • Reynolds posted consecutive multi-hit games for the first time since April 29-May 2.
  • Santana’s double today was his 24th this season and leads the team. He’s currently on pace for 39, which would match his career-high set in 2013 while with Cleveland.
  • Interesting moment in the 5th inning as Thaiss hit a ball down the first base line that was initially called fair, going for a 2-run double, but was discussed among the umpires and ruled foul.
  • Pirates stay out west as they trek to San Diego tomorrow. Quinn Priester is scheduled to face Yu Darvish with first pitch at 9:40PM. Let’s Go Bucs!