3-25-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X
The Roster is set, and we’ll talk all about it in detail when I release the Steel City Pirates 2024 Season Preview tomorrow. I can’t avoid touching on some of it today but I’ll have individual thoughts about every player selected along with a whole bunch of fun prediction stuff we can all chew on and hold up as examples of my stupidity. I did get the record prediction right last year but it sure as hell didn’t come about in the way I envisioned.
That’s the fun of doing all these things, everyone has a vision of how they see everything going, some of us are just dumb enough to publish it.
Let’s Go…
1. Early 40-man Crunch
Carmen Mlodzinski and Colin Holderman starting on the IL, along with the decision to start Jared Jones on the 26-man roster immediately create a need to clear 3 spots.
Ali Sanchez will be one and bluntly, the next two fans would want Bailey Falter and Alika Williams, will both make the team, partially in response to all this illness and injury. I’ll talk more about Alika in the next entry but had Peguero not been bitten by that nasty flue bug, I have to imagine he would have started on the roster instead of Alika.
Ryder Ryan and Hunter Stratton benefit directly and get an opportunity, probably helped Bailey Falter hold onto a spot too.
You’d hate to burn depth and roster spots over short term absences from regulars you expect back, as it is, they’re going to have to cut loose one or two guys they planned to keep in reserve.
Decisions are made with an eye toward getting a group through 162 games, not the first week. Burn a guy like Wily Peralta now and you won’t be able to send him back, so when they call on a guy like him or Lauer or even German, it’ll be because they have a long term need, not someone recovering from the flu.
It’s rarely as simple as this guys is better than that guy, unless all the other factors involved are the same.
I think it’s fair to assume all of this 40-man jockeying cost Billy McKinney a shot to crack the roster over Edward Olivares, so it’s not just a pitching story.
That doesn’t mean you have to like Falter being a starter, I don’t either, but it could very well set up for a rather quick call of Skenes, German, Lauer, Peralta, or even Ortiz winding up right back in there. Lots will change as the year plays out. You can’t think Jones is here cause they want to win and Falter is here cause they don’t care. Bottom line, they didn’t add enough to start April with a solid 5.
2. There Will Always Be a “Josh VanMeter”
I have a feeling we already have elected this year’s member of the JVM Memorial Award for Least Wanted Player, and at least to start, it’s Alika Williams. If and when the Pirates demote him we’ll hold a new election of course. The player that replaces him will be an absolute fan darling for at least a couple weeks, and we’ll have a new one selected before Alika has even cleaned out his locker.
This is human nature more than it is even fandom. In fact, it’s the reason everywhere you’ve ever worked there is that one guy or lady “everyone” hates.
I covered the other day some very real reasons why Alika Williams makes the team and Liover Peguero doesn’t. The more I’ve looked into it since, the more Peguero’s illness makes the most sense. The Pirates have started letting stories leak about this illness, like Colin Holderman who lost 15 pounds and was hospitalized while dealing with it.
The Pirates could at least dispel the whole Alika is better than Peguero train of thought that some of you will never escape no matter what evidence is presented by simply addressing the lingering weakness those recovering from the sickness have experienced. How many guys were behind the scenes shut down from doing anything, let alone getting game ready, we’ll probably never fully know the full scope and lingering COVID rules for not discussing guys situations with viral stuff still seems to be part of the protocol all around the league.
Williams is a great fielder and I sincerely doubt he’ll ever carry a stick that makes him more than Rafael Belliard. He’s a great fielder who plays a position in which the starter Oneil Cruz has quite a bit to prove.
Times have changed for sure, but I don’t remember hating Chico Lind, or Belliard, or John Cangelosi, Clint Barmes ya know? Now, maybe it’s just that social media wasn’t a thing and you were sitting at the bar throwing bottles against the wall every time someone who was for sure glove first and weren’t going to hit much got a shot. Either way, I’d prefer to just understand the roster will never have more than 26 players, but we’ll somehow see them use 40 or even 50 players to finish 162.
They’re all Pirates, and I can’t see spending the energy hating everyone who isn’t a nailed on starter in this league. That shiz happens everywhere.
Fan however you want, that’s your call, just don’t expect me to camp on. I can advise they should be sent down for someone else. I’ll talk about minimizing how much they play, accentuate ways they could best use his skillset situationally, but overtly acting like the team is tanking every time he gets an at bat, yeah, that’s not me. Have fun.
3. The Strength of the Team?
The Bullpen was set to be the strength of this team, a reason the starting rotation could afford to be less than stellar early on as they waited for young reinforcements to arrive, but sickness and injury has changed that mix.
On the back end they have Chapman and Bednar, but David has only thrown twice this Spring, and hasn’t looked particularly sharp in them. I expect Holderman and Mlodzinski being out will cause the team to lean a bit more on Ryan Borucki toward the back end and maybe Ryan Ryder will have to serve as the ground ball specialist.
It’s shaky at best to have a pen with Roansy Contreras and Luis Ortiz in there, but maybe having them cut loose will change them from the pitchers we’ve seen into something resembling a bullpen arm. Maybe they work back to starting too. They could go 50 different ways with these guys.
Either way, it’s not the lock down unit we envisioned….yet.
It’s still not a “bad” bullpen, but it’s not a bullpen you should plan to ride and early on, most teams regardless of their construction will have no choice. Starters won’t be fully stretched before at least the middle of April, so truth be told, you’d almost prefer to start with a fully loaded pen than get there slowly.
4. Barring Injury, Paul Skenes Will Debut in 2024
There’s nobody hiding it, in fact Ben Cherington just laid out that expectation on MLB Network today.
Jared Jones starting right out of camp should tell you winning this year is more important than ensuring an extra cheap year. Believe it or not, this will come down to how he acclimates to the pro schedule, how he handles the very small list of boxes they’ve asked him to check and ultimately, how the big club is doing. Sounds crazy but if the Bucs are getting good production from their rotation, it’s not like they’ll just DFA one of them.
It’s not so much that the Pirates have changed their philosophy, it’s that the team wants to pry open that damn window, and you don’t do that without a crowbar and maybe even breaking some glass.
5. Henry is Indeed the Starting Catcher
Hate to say I told you so….
Nah, I’m happy as hell to tell you I told you so. Henry has looked every bit the part this Spring, both at the plate and behind it. All the nonsense about him not being able to catch, gone.
All the nonsense about him starting in AAA, gone.
All the idiocy of him being Grandal’s backup, gone.
Henry earned this and he got some help along the way, first and foremost Endy Rodriguez having UCL surgery opened the door. Grandal being 35 and visually not all that good on top of not being healthy made it even easier a path, but at the end of the day nothing helped more than Henry himself working his ass off.
I can’t begin to express how different he looks from the kid I watched catch in Greensboro. I have a hard time describing how incredibly difficult it is to improve that much in one off season.
Any team can hit on a 1:1 pick but this team has selected two who have different makeups. These aren’t just good players, these are two kids who want to lead, want to be the best, not good enough, and more than anything, they want to win, right here, right now.
I’ve got a ton of writing to do to get this season preview done, so let’s keep this one shorter than normal and call it a day.
Enjoy the next couple days, Thursday is gonna be a blast. Special episode of the Pirates Fan Forum goes live Thursday Night at 9 PM EST!
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