Steel City Pirates – 2024 Season Preview

3-26-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Every year since we launched this site we’ve published our season preview, usually build with Craig Toth and I bantering back and forth, and I considered doing that again this year with one or more of the other writers here on staff. Ultimately though, we’ve all got our own shows to put content into, we’ve all got our own ideas on angles to cover and it just made more sense to leave this entire piece in my voice alone.

it’s also the first time (**Spoiler Alert**) I won’t be predicting a losing season since I started writing, which is super nice for me.

The Pirates roster is finally final, let’s start there and move the discussion along naturally.

The 2024 Pirates Opening Day 26-Man Roster

Make no mistake, this won’t be the roster they finish with, in fact, in a normal season you’ll see upwards of 50 players at some point. The more mature your team becomes, providing health of course, the fewer the number of variables. That said, this is where we’re starting.

For the second straight year, I’m saying loud and proud you’ll like this team better in September than you do right now, difference being, there’s more to like than there was at the beginning last year.

The Starting Rotation (5)

Mitch Keller – Use the Ace tag if you must, but no matter what you call him, Mitch is the most experienced and in his prime starter the Pirates have. Until I see him perform differently, I’ll pencil him in for a healthy campaign that looks a lot like it did last year. A solid effort, easily in the top 15 or so starters in baseball.

Martín Pérez – Martín was an All Star in 2022, and a forgotten man pushed off to the bullpen on the 2023 World Series Champion Texas Rangers. Most of his outings tend to look very good, but he’s been victim to the blowup game here and there. It balloons his overall numbers and masks the type of pitcher he looks like most of the time. There is every reason to expect he’s a solid performer in 2024.

Marco Gonzales – The lefty starter is coming off an injury plagued season and that’s the first question, can he stay on the field? Quickly followed of course by can he recapture the steady performer he was before all this. We’re talking about a guy who has pitched on opening day for Seattle previously. From the first pitch he throws through the last pitch he tosses as a Pirates player, we’ll probably be concerned about those two things.

Jared Jones – The first MLB Top 100 pitcher to break camp with the Pirates since Kris Benson in 1999, Jared Jones earned this in every conceivable way. Don’t get me wrong, I’m stoked to see it, but the Pirates damn near made this have to happen for some kid by bringing in as little as they did. His stuff is electric, but he doesn’t have a history of lasting all that long in games, nor has he thrown more than 126 innings in a season. The Pirates are going to have to be careful here, and I’m not trying to sound like an overprotective parent, but one thing I know about this kid, he’ll never say he’s tired, the team just needs to know better, he’s too important.

Bailey Falter – Move over Alika, Bailey will take a few beatings for you. He’s the starter, but listen, they aren’t just gonna let him fail over and over again. They do have options, I mean, he doesn’t, but the team does. Luis Ortiz could perform in the pen and get moved back to this role, Josh Fleming possibly could. They have Priester, Lauer, German, Peralta, even Skenes before too long. Point being this isn’t going to drag on for months, Cherington himself alluded to the harsh reality that they may have to lose some battles early on to win the war. I’d argue they don’t “have” to, but they did set themselves up for it. What he’s getting at is they may have to run with some things that are less than ideal as a bridge to the reinforcements. Again, they made their bed, this is why we kept saying they needed to get another Starter, and not a recovering drunk or sorta used to be maybe could be again type. But I digress. The moral of the story is Bailey won’t be allowed to just rot on the vine and spoil the wine for the entire team. It’s hard to do, but I’ll leave room that he finds a path to productivity in some capacity. Lefties are weird and sometimes something as small as a release point tweak takes them from batting practice to unhittable.

The Bullpen (8)

David Bednar – He’s still the closer, but his Spring was very abbreviated with his LAT issue. A minor issue by all accounts and the team thinks he’ll be fine. I still believe they’ll try to take it easy on him, so don’t expect to see him go back to back a whole lot early on. Maybe don’t expect him to be firing on all cylinders from the jump, not that he’ll acknowledge anything isn’t 100% if asked.

Ryan Ryder – Non-Roster Invitee, Ryan Ryder is a sinker baller, an element the team felt they lacked without Colin Holderman. someone who could come in and get that big ground ball. It’s probably going to take some time to start entering games in leverage situations but he did have a quite nice Spring, so I have no reason to expect he is incapable.

Roansy Contreras – I believe it’s Andrew Chafin who walks around in a T-shirt that says “Failed Starter” on it. See, some guys accept the role with a smile, others take it as a slap in the face and never let go of what they want or “deserve” to be. This role could really suit Roansy, he can cut down to the pitches that work for him and not worry about going through the order twice. Not holding back on velocity to make it longer into games could help him reach the heights of his velocity he used to. Make no mistake though, just like Falter, the Pirates won’t allow Roansy to hurt this team, with no options he’ll get time but it isn’t infinite.

Ryan Borucki – Incredible numbers last year for the lefty, frankly, numbers I strongly doubted he could repeat, but because baseball is baseball and being wrong is just as much a pastime as the game itself, he’s shown up looking just as nasty. Guys just can’t see what he’s throwing, there’s something there, and next to nobody will mention he was a complete and utter “dumpster dive”, you know, a waiver claim. They don’t work often, but every once in a while, you find a gem, here’s hoping Borucki is the next one. Should be noted, He’s a unrestricted free agent next year. If they like him, they have to do something to keep him. My guess is though, enjoy him this year.

Aroldis Chapman – I’m not going to teach you anything about Chapman you don’t already know. He throws 99-102, has devastating off speed stuff, gives you 50+ innings and can hold it down on the back end in case the normal closer is having issues with his own back.

Josh Fleming – He’s spent his entire career in Tampa Bay, as a pitcher, and in Tampa for most guys anyway, that means you’ve started games, come in as a reliever and probably scrubbed toilets once a week, with your non pitching arm mind you. I personally think he has a history of walking too many guys but we’ll see, he did well this Spring and like I just said with Borucki, you never know which pan holds that flake of precious metal. Fingers crossed, sure do need him to be ok early on at least.

Hunter Stratton – Hunter was DFA’d at the beginning of the offseason, but he put in the work after that. He’s 27 years old and was selected in the 16th round of the 2017 draft. This is a system guy for the Pirates and all he’s done is eat innings in the pen in AA and AAA for the past 3 seasons. He earned a call up last year to Pittsburgh and performed fairly well in 12 innings of work. He looks different though this year, and keep in mind, this is a guy I’ve watched pitch at the AAA level now for 3 years, but the ball is coming out of his hand cleaner than I recall and the stuff is getting more swing and miss than it usually does. This may have been because of IL issues, but he may not give up his spot easily.

Luis Ortiz – Bulk guy as Cherington puts it. Could mean he’s a starter who they think needs an opener, could be the new lingo for long man. Ortiz probably isn’t done being a starter in his mind or the team’s but his stuff should play in the pen well. Becoming a reliever isn’t a failure, unless you let it make you one.

The Starting (9)

DH Andrew McCutchen – It’s no joke to say Andrew is the heartbeat of this team, but this year for whatever reason, even more than last year, he seems to be smelling the flowers, embracing that he needs to drink it in and you can just hear it in his voice in interviews, he knows the days of playing a game for a living are coming to a close. He may play another season, but this one is his best chance to be a big part of a team, his role almost has to be reduced next year should he continue. Homerun 300 will be his next, eyes peeled.

C Henry Davis – Your Pittsburgh Pirates Starting Catcher is none other than Henry Davis. Man, that escalated quickly for those of you who refused to believe your eyes and instead parsed every word any team official said all offseason. He put in the work, and he will handle it well. The trick for Henry will be not wearing down, to his credit he’s tried to pack on the weight and muscle it’ll take, but weak legs at the end of the season are a damn near guarantee.

1B Rowdy Tellez – He’s not the first baseman you wanted, but the market was thin and for what it’s worth he seems like a very good fit for the room. I still can’t help but feel they should have done a bit more here but they really seem to believe they’ve not just got a good shot at some production here, they got the guy they wanted. We’ll see. If the power doesn’t click, I’m afraid there just isn’t much left to hope for with him, it’s not like he’s gonna walk 120 times and steal 40 bases and the glove is only going to get so good.

2B Jared Triolo – Peguero’s illness was unfortunate but Jared every bit earned this. People will keep questioning his BABIP, but nobody will care if he’s producing and helping to stabilize the right side of the defense. With his frame, power could come, but it doesn’t have to for him to be successful. After all if power were everything, Gonzales or Peguero might have won the spot themselves.

SS Oneil Cruz – Kid looks like a monster. I don’t know what else to say, lets just watch him put together a full season and then we can stop guessing about how great he could be. Let’s be serious for a second though, a healthy season means something else, he gets this year to prove he’s an MLB Short Stop. Yes, I think he CAN do it, but the fact is, he hasn’t, at least not well enough. Throws need to stop being adventures to second or first. Footwork around the bag needs to get cleaned up and while his range is insane, he needs to make it count a lot to make up for the routine stuff he struggles with. In other words, I want to head into this offseason knowing Cruz is or isn’t this team’s Short Stop, and if he isn’t, I’d like to have an idea where they plan to try to use him. Before you tell me what you think, I honestly don’t care about your thoughts here any more than my own, this is a question this team and Oneil need to answer, not us. Answers his injury robbed us of last year.

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes – Hayes is officially a gold glove third baseman. He was before he got the award too, and now he looks primed to deliver on the offensive side as well. His late season tweaks look to have stuck, all he did is kill it all Spring long at the plate. Homeruns pulled, oppo, patented line drives up the middle or through the 4 hole, a Hayes that hits like a middle of the order batter is invaluable for the fortunes of this team.

RF Bryan Reynolds – He’s had a slow Spring. If he hit the baseball it left the yard, but mostly he just kinda was there. Turns out he’s been dealing with some middle back issues which explains why he didn’t play much especially near the end of the Grapefruit League. Bryan just kinda needs to be Bryan, here’s hoping, because Bryan is pretty damn good at baseball. It would appear he’ll be primarily in Right field, which kinda came out of nowhere, but the team claims they planned the move before they signed Michael Taylor.

CF Michael A. Taylor – Gold glove centerfielder who can pitch in offensively here and there. The prototypical 9 hitter will make the Pirates defense much better regardless of who are on his corners. Don’t expect much with the bat and you’ll be pleasantly surprised when you get something. Expect everything with the glove and you still might be underselling it.

LF Jack Suwinski – The power is real. He’s shown he has a very good eye at the plate. And this Spring he’s shown he’s not just going to stand there and take strikes on the outside corner. I’m interested to see what this does to the way pitchers approach him over time. If they start busting him in I think he’ll mash mistakes but we need to see if he starts looking for it and reverts from going after that outside pitch. If he evolves, he’s an every day player, maybe even an All Star someday, if he doesn’t, he’ll be a guy you play because he can hit them out but could find himself slipping into a platoon role over time. Big year for Jack.

The Bench (4)

C Jason Delay – Prototypical backup catcher, and before you get mad about it, you’ll probably see him catch a bit more than a backup typically would. they aren’t just going to jump into Henry catching 5-6 games a week. This will have nothing to do with lacking trust in Henry, but saving his legs.

UTL Connor Joe – He’s going to play all over the place. Outfield, first base, hell I bet we see him at second here and there. You could do worse than Connor for a bench player, much worse in fact.

OF Edward Olivares – I truly believe he was beaten out by Billy McKinney but the Pirates had to burn too many 40-man spots filling the bullpen out after the injury bug struck. That doesn’t mean there’s nothing there with Olivares, it just means he wasn’t as in your face locked in as McKinney.

IF Alika Williams – Everyone’s favorite punching bag. Williams will play the role of defensive substitute, and giver of rest to the Pirates towering regular short stop. He never had offensive output that mattered until AAA last year, and it hasn’t translated to the Bigs in any way. Reality is his ceiling is only so high, despite where he was drafted. Unless something major clicks with him, he’s got a long way to go to climb out of a bench role anywhere, let alone stay on an MLB roster.

Starting on the IL

RP Carmen Mlodzinski – 15 Day IL – Forearm tightness is always scary, but Carmen is already back to throwing and apparently cleared to continue.

IF/OF Ji-hwan Bae – 10 Day IL – He’s back to doing everything baseball, now its about playing the game, getting at bats and, well, having a hole on the roster open up.

RP Colin Holderman – 15 Day IL – He caught the flu that was going around and got it bad. He spent time in the hospital and lost 15 pounds. He’s throwing, just needs to recover the rest of the way and build back up.

C Yasmani Grandal – 10 Day IL – Being reevaluated for ability to run. Apparently he’s doing everything else, but we’ll see. Plantar fasciitis is no joke, maybe they caught it early enough, maybe that doesn’t matter.

MLB Debuts We Could See

SP Paul Skenes – MLB’s first pick in the 2023 Entry Draft will almost undoubtedly make his debut this year. he’s too involved, and the need it soo great for what he does to see it any other way. Major injury or major underperformance are just about all that can hold this back.

IF Tsung-Che Cheng – He was already an up and comer, but his inclusion on the 40-man roster this year to protect him from the Rule 5 draft set this on a collision course. Past Alika Williams, he’s arguably the Pirates best SS prospect as it comes to fielding, and beyond Termarr Jonnson he probably has the best looking bat.

SP/RP Braxton Ashcraft – This kid has a huge arm, his problem has really been his health. It’s never really allowed him to build up into a full blown starter. I think we’ll see the Pirates keep working with him to start but he may be a good candidate to give this club some relief innings. As with Cheng, he was protected and the Pirates have shown us countless times now, if they protect you, they think you’re going to be ready for MLB that very year.

SP Mike Burrows – Mike was humming before he had to go under the knife last year. On track to debut and probably have a shot at meaningful innings, maybe even a run of starts at the MLB level. His injury forced the team to call on Quinn Priester earlier than they wanted to…well, they could have remedied that in other ways too, but let’s just say, Quinn doesn’t act as a living pinata more than a couple times if Mike was healthy. May see the team use him in a relief role too, almost more as a part of his recovery than an indication of his future.

How’s the Division Going to Shake Out?

For starters, this division is going to be tight. Top to bottom could be separated by as few as 12 or 13 games. So when I say someone finishes in second, keep that in mind.

I’ll go in this order…

Chicago
Pittsburgh
Milwaukee
Cincinnati
St. Louis

Don’t get hung up on the how here, just remember I think top to bottom 12 or 13 games different. And I think the Cardinals are the worst pretty easily. So that top 4 could be as few as 6-8 games apart.

I think we’re looking at a genuine fun race, and not just for us, the whole division, well, except the Cardinals, I think they took hits right where they couldn’t afford and weren’t set to be that good to begin with.

How About Some General Predictions?

Who doesn’t love these? Things you can hang me with later for being dumb, I mean if you aren’t gonna risk being a dummy what the hell are you even doing blogging?

Record Prediction

Drum roll…

84-78

It’s not the 16 game improvement last year was, but much like losing weight, the first 15 or so are pretty easy, it’s the next 10-15 that get you.

I think the Pirates will finish this year stronger than they start it so I could see this prediction looking really dumb as late as July, before coming on and coming close to taking the division.

Vegas has the over/under set at 75.5 so clearly I’m taking the Over. The team cracks .500 for just the 5th time since 1992 and open the window for the next several campaigns.

Position Group Preseason Grades

I like to grade these position groups as it relates to the league, An F is obvious failure, C of course is average, and A is top notch, maybe top 5 in the league.

Outfield – B- I give them a B-minus because their defensive upgrade signing could also knock them back a notch at the plate. They’re a nice unit, but probably not near the top.

Infield – C+ I’m pleased with Hayes and Triolo defensively and I love the offensive possibilities but I can’t hide from how I believe Cruz and Tellez will be defensively. Overall, this unit at the very least has questions.

SP – C – I’m confident this grade will go up, but at the beginning here, c’mon, it is what it is.

RP – B This would have been an A if Holderman and Mlodzinski were healthy and Bednar was more prepared. This could still be the strength of the team, but at the beginning, it surely isn’t.

C – B+ I like the depth, I like the veteran backing, I love the rookie who will get the lion’s share of time. Best setup the Pirates have had behind the dish since Cervelli was here.

Coaching Overview

This has to be a big year for Andy Haines and Oscar Marin. Both are being given tools they’ve not had, and both will be expected to get something out of all that talent. Yes, it’s on Derek Shelton to deploy them properly, but Andy Haines can’t have this collection of hitters and find the team lower than 15th in every measurable category that helps score runs.

Marin will have some real big pieces and some established pieces in his garage, and to be frank, he can’t miss. Pitchers like Jones and Skenes can’t look like they might not stick and see this pitching coach survive.

Shelton himself is really in no trouble, I know, I know, you don’t like that, but it’s true, he’ll be the manager entering 2025 almost regardless of how they look. Everything I know tells me they’d dump the assistants before considering moving on from Shelton.

Conclusion

All in all, I think we’re in for a competitive division race and a team capable of competing daily for a win. I’m not sure we’re to the point where the boys show up to the yard expecting to win, but I’m positive we’re to that place where they know it’s on the table every time out.

I caution you to not get too caught up in this opening 26-man and forecast out what this exact mix of players might add up to, I just don’t think it’ll look like this all year or even most of it.

Most of if not all the division could be in the mix as late as July or August this year and it’s going to force every team to decide at the deadline, are we in or are we out? Begrudge the Pirates payroll and what they brought in during free agency, they certainly deserve it, this division is right there for the taking and in my mind one top tier starter could have tipped them over the edge, but to them that may very well be Paul Skenes or even Jared Jones, so I have no choice but to reserve judgement and let it play out.

I ultimately think the Pirates farm is deeper than the rest of the division, maybe not as many top 100 guys, but a whole lot more who are close than anyone else. this should afford the Bucs the ability to patch holes and fortify themselves for the stretch run, now we just got to get them there looking like it’s plausible that a few pieces will get them there.

I’m looking forward to this season, and not just from my nerdy team building perspective, I actually think this is a really fleshed out competitive core, ready to see some high end finishes bolted on before having a big open house.

See Yinz at the Ball Park!