A Great Day To Be a Pirates Fan – Skenes & Jones Make Season Debuts

3-31-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

I sat down to watch the Indianapolis Indians as they faced the Louisville Bats at 2:00 PM. I often watch the affiliates play when the Pirates aren’t on, or I’ll listen to a game while I write, so nothing too odd about that part.

The difference today was The Pirates 1:1 selection in last year’s draft Paul Skenes was the starting Pitcher.

Now, all day long I’m already excited to watch Jared Jones make his debut with the Pirates at 4:05.

I’m sure at this point, this has to sound like a lot of your Saturday’s right? I mean, this is an exciting day, and in many ways feels like the payoff for our pain is coming, and fast.

Oh, don’t start deciding what I mean here, I’m not talking crazy. No World Series predictions coming here, in fact I won’t even consider bumping up my 84 win call, I still think there are growing pains to come. A few more youngsters need to flesh out their game, and cement their roles.

More still have yet to come but certainly will and when they do, they’ll be rookies, trying to crack a team that isn’t exactly dying for them to get there. We’re going to be talking soon about how to pump the brakes on prospects, but that talk is for another day.

Today is all about the show that was put on today.

Paul was, well, Paul Skenes. He looks like he knows exactly what he wants to do. He challenges guys, but not with meatballs hitters can close their eyes and hope to catch. 102 at the top of the zone with a tail, followed by 96 at the knees away with a pinpoint slider.

He went 3 innings today, 5 strikeouts, probably went a little deeper in some at bats than he’d like to, but every time he needed an answer he had one, and importantly, that answer wasn’t always here’s 103, come get it. Point being, he’s already showing some thought toward, and execution of being not only a thrower, but a pitcher.

Encouraging stuff, but fans of course want more. I really do think they could let him, but I also think he and the Pirates are trying to ramp him up slowly. Admittedly, it’s excruciatingly slow, even to me, who expected this.

For what it’s worth, Paul seems to be very much so on the same page with the Pirates, and I don’t mean in some of course the kid isn’t crap talking his new organization way, I mean he very clearly articulates his progress and process, and there’s very little he points to the team over.

What I think they’re trying to accomplish here, is keeping Paul under 160 innings if they can in 2024, a sizable jump actually from what he did in 2023, and they’d also like to have him not run out of gas, or gas they’re willing to let him expend anyway by September. To do that, I think we will see them try to escape April with Paul pitching 25 innings or less Spread out over 4 or 5 more starts.

At that time he’ll be up to 5 or 6 innings, maybe even 7 and all bets are off. If the team feels there’s a need I honestly don’t see the team feeling the need to wait.

I too would join the chorus of people happily telling you they’ll Super 2 him or whatever, but Jared Jones, part two of this all day feel good fest happened. That my friends was not characteristic, in any era of Pirates mismanagement we’ve watched through the years.

Indy would go on to lose 4-3 and not that it’s about him but Eric Lauer got lit up like a downtown Christmas tree.

4:05 PM

The Marlins take the field, just last season having ridden a seemingly non stop wave of top end arms to a playoff berth, and currently experiencing how everything can change in the blink of an eye. For the second straight day a big stuff reliever converted to starter while they wait out the IL crunch took the mound, Ryan Weathers. Talented kid, probably miscast in this role a bit, and light on experience on top of it, but he held his own for the most part.

Jared Jones just wasn’t fair. 5.2 innings, 2BB, 10K’s, 3ER and his first career MLB Win as the Pirates bats came alive to provide 9 runs of support.

The line doesn’t look nearly as good as Jared did in this contest. If there were rookie nerves, they showed up more in the interview than on the mound. If he got into trouble, he had multiple ways to go about getting out of it. He could of course go for the strikeout, or, he wasn’t afraid to take the easiest path of just baiting them into hitting something with the tip of the bat.

He didn’t look like a rookie, didn’t strut like one, didn’t let the moment get too big, in other words, he was in every way best case scenario.

As with all pitchers, he’ll get scouted now, and there are certainly more talented lineups out there than the Miami Marlins. It won’t always be peaches and cream most likely and seeing how he bounces back from that will in and of itself be an important thing to see and for him to experience.

Jared too will have to have his innings controlled in some way, and I’ve described how I think they’ll go about it in 5 Thoughts a couple times now. Again, that’s a story for later.

Today it was about two pitchers, very much so part of the future of this team. It sent fans to message boards predicting the rotation of the future. Skenes, Keller, Jones, Solometo, Chandler I must have seen about 25 times in the aftermath of this game and that certainly could happen, but it’s also incredibly hard to put that out there ignoring Oviedo, Priester, Burrows, Ashcraft and more. It ignores that right behind or near some of those guys is Kennedy, Mueth, Shim, I mean to tell you, this team has neglected some positional needs in the system, but they are loaded to the gills with pitching talent.

Take it as it comes, and for once, you aren’t watching a team that should have you pining for a distant enough to be unpredictable future. Instead you have some very real and very here arms, enough to have this team looking a whole lot more complete following 2024 than they looked following 2023, you know, growth, development, the fruits of sucking and trading and losing and drafting and signing and living off other team’s scraps and half empty ballparks.

It doesn’t have to be done this way, but if it is the path your team chooses, all that pitching is how you want it to come together. If there’s one place to feel like good pitchers might get pushed out, make it the position where you need 2 or 3 times what it takes to build a roster.

We got a taste today, and we’ll get bigger glimpses as the months roll by.

Today was a good day.

There’s no guarantee of tomorrow, but you certainly can’t reach a dream about the future until you fully experience today.

Maybe Mitch Keller said it best after the game, “I can already tell Skenes knows he belongs here. Jones knows he belongs here. It’s exciting.”

Oh, and Happy Easter!

A Better Pirates Team Won’t Improve the Discourse About Them on it’s Own

3-30-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

Oh yes, you’ve been hurt, and to some of you this team could win the World Series and it would only lead to your undying correctness. Truth is, eventually, you will be right. At some point they will come down the other side of the mountain they’re climbing whether they reach the top or not.

I’m kinda tired of fighting about it.

Look, this team is whatever you want it to be for you. If you want it to be a never ending grift like Mark Madden tells you every year in the 5 minutes he acknowledges the team’s existence, ok.

If the payroll being near the bottom outweighs where the actual on field talent looks to have the team like Tim Benz would have you believe in his yearly fly by of the laughingstock Pirates, have whatever you constitute as fun then.

Paul Skenes didn’t make the team out of Spring Training, so if that makes the team unserious as most members of the pathetic Pirates flag ship 93.7 the Fan would tell you. Well, unless they have “Shelty” on, then they totally understand if not full throated endorse whatever it is.

I’m not even going to touch all the obvious trolls, they’re here just to piss with you and try to steal joy from anyone who dares to just be happy their team started 2-0. “Yeah, World Series Bound!” They’ll crow, because clearly being happy about anything is equivalent.

Others have simply been around a long time and never allowed themselves to see anything change in this game, up to and including free agency. Parker leaving was their first lesson in this team being “cheap” and the league took care of the rest ever since. Each new owner was just a new poster boy for why we couldn’t keep anyone. They don’t want to hear salary cap stuff, or TV money, let alone financial restrictions this team might have, if it’s the league’s fault or theirs.

Thing is, aside from the obvious trolls, Madden included, everyone is at least a little right. Or, at least they will be.

It really struck me yesterday when the Pirates traded JT Brubaker, I mean, we don’t even have the return yet, but if you wanted it to be a salary dump, you’re 100% convinced it is. If you think every move the team makes is stupid, this move just got added to the list of evidence for you.

Winning is the only thing that’ll change this, and it’ll only change it long enough for most of these people to quiet down a bit. If they make the playoffs, guys like Madden will talk about it, stress how lucky they got with this guy they signed, or how they couldn’t screw up on Paul Skenes, but he’ll be gone by this year “Har har har har”.

You aren’t going to change minds, you aren’t going to fight people into thinking like you do, or being satisfied with sucking for 10 years to get a bite at the apple.

I see fans frustrated with it.

Fans who just want to enjoy baseball, or more specifically their team play the game they love. Fans who don’t hate the team throughout the process can feel like they have no place. No real home where they can just talk about this baseball team as it is now. Be frustrated with something and not have expressing it turn into a barrage of those same trolls you almost constantly fend off or ignore suddenly agreeing with you, or more accurately, over agreeing and taking your frustrations to their “natural” conclusion as far as they’re concerned.

It’s caused what feels like dozens of Facebook groups that “are going to be positive” and the thing is, that’s not how baseball works.

Think about Thursday’s opening day game in Miami. How can you have watched that game and think everything that happened was positive? They won, that’s the ultimate, but it wouldn’t have been exciting at all if it weren’t for those negatives.

You need the Yin and Yang of good and bad in baseball, that’s the game, a game in which failing 7 out of 10 times could get you in the Hall of Fame.

I’m not here to tell you anyone, or any site is your oasis. I mean, we try to be fair here, but make no mistake, sometimes that’s going to be negative, sometimes it’s going to feel like cheerleading. Our only rule here is be fair. If there are two ways to see something, let’s make sure we see and talk about both.

There are people who would legitimately be angry if Alika Williams hit a homerun or Bailey Falter tossed 5 scoreless innings. If only because they can’t help but think it means the Pirates will see it and ignore their sage advice that both of these players need DFA’d.

Again, I don’t see either of these guys as part of the future, but a win is a win, and I’ll take contributions from wherever they come. Even if it’s the only one they ever make.

This team is going to be relevant for at least the rest of the decade, you better get used to accepting all this stuff isn’t going away regardless.

160 more of these are on the way, hopefully even more than that. Instead of trying to be right, let’s focus on being honest, and open to hearing things we don’t like. But don’t you for one second avoid enjoying any of this, you earned it, and those who would rob you of that joy, well, they’ll earn their own reward.

They’re 2-0. That doesn’t mean much more than most of us who just want to watch our team win were happy a couple times. For far too many it’s a direct threat to the narrative they ran with. 7-0 won’t change that. 20-8 didn’t change that. A playoff appearance won’t either.

Spend energy on your joy, not trying to convince people to see it like you do. Ignore them, fight with them, whatever, but please quit acting like there’s a magic bullet of information that’s going to smarten them up.

Brubaker Heads to the Big Apple in Trade with Yankees

3-29-24 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader 

The Pittsburgh Pirates have struck a deal with the New York Yankees. The Bucs are sending JT Brubaker & international bonus pool money to The Bronx Bombers for a Player to Be Named Later. While there is no return to react to quite yet, it is prudent to discuss Brubaker briefly.

Brubaker debuted with the Pirates in 2020, pitching 47.1 innings with 48 strikeouts in a promising abridged first year with the team. The former 6th round pick became a stalwart in the rotation during the next two years, posting a sub-optimal 4.99 ERA but also throwing 315.2 innings with 324 strikeouts in those three seasons.

Unfortunately, JT succumbed to an elbow injury which required Tommy John surgery during Spring Training in 2023, so it has been a while since anyone has seen him throw a pitch. What many might not remember is that he was looking super interesting before going down.

Across 5 Grapefruit League starts in 2023 Brubaker’s performance looked like this:

17.1 IP, 36.6 K%, 4.2 BB%, 5.19 ERA, 3.58 FIP

Obviously that ERA is not what you want to see – but drilling down some, the major uptick in K-BB% combined with his FIP were raising some alarm bells that this guy might be on the verge of something here.

Spring training’s small sample size cuts both ways here. One could be tempted to look too closely at the positive and hand-wave away the inflated ERA and on the other side of the coin hand-wave away the 32.4 K% and the borderline elite 4.2 BB%. Taking either tact would be fair.

I for one would take a 60/40 approach here and see the positives as being more indicative of a step forward coming for JT. Because we already had some information from the 2022 season telling us that he has a pair of very effective breaking balls in his arsenal. A slider that registered a .299 xwOBA and a curveball that was good for a .272 xwOBA are truly tantalizing building blocks for a starter. But his arsenal is deeper than this – I believe that Brubaker was on the “Mitch Keller track” of developing a more well-rounded, kitchen sink, type of repertoire. It also must be noted that Brubaker had gone to TREAD Athletics, just like Keller had.

His biggest bugaboo, which is a bit of a familiar story for other Pirates pitchers, is an unreliable fastball. His sinker was not generating effective results, oftentimes not serving its intended purposes and generating poor contact or ground balls. But there was indication that this was changing some in Spring of 2023. But, again, we truly do not know how it was going to play. He was injured prior to Pirates fans getting to see if it was for real.

Now he heads to New York and the Yankees have a very good pitching development system of their own. Whether or not he will remain a starter is unknown. As it stands now, I would wager that he will. The Yankees find themselves somewhat light on MLB level pitching and Brubaker should come back at some point during the 2024 season.

I look forward to seeing how Brubaker’s game continues to progress. It would not be surprising to see him throw productive innings wearing pinstripes in the not-so-distant future.

Series Preview: Pirates (0-0) at Marlins (0-0)

3-28-24 – By Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

The Pirates open the season in Miami against the Marlins for the first time in 18 years. The Fish are coming off a playoff season after finishing 84-78 but their pitching staff, which was formerly a strength, has been decimated by injuries. The Miami offense which finished last in runs in the National League in 2023 despite being 2nd in hits, behind only the Atlanta Braves in the Senior Circuit.

3/28
Marlins – Jesus Luzardo (L/L) – 10-10, 178.2 IP, 3.58 ERA, 208 Ks/55 walks, 1.21 WHIP
Pirates – Mitch Keller (R/R) – 13-9, 194.1 IP, 4.21 ERA, 210 Ks/55 walks, 1.25 WHIP

3/29
Marlins – AJ Puk (L/L) – 7-5, 56.2 IP, 3.97 ERA, 78 Ks/13 walks, 1.18 WHIP
Pirates – Martín Pérez (L/R) – 10-4, 141.2 IP, 93 Ks/49 walks, 1.40 WHIP

3/30
Marlins – Ryan Weathers (L/R) – 1-8, 57.2 IP, 6.55 ERA, 43 Ks/29 walks, 1.68 WHIP
Pirates – Jared Jones (R/R) – (AA/AAA) 5-9, 126.1 IP, 3.85 ERA, 146 Ks/50 walks, 1.24 WHIP

3/31
Marlins – Trevor Rogers (L/L) – 1-2, 18 IP, 4.00 ERA, 19 Ks/6 walks, 1.22 WHIP
Pirates – Bailey Falter (L/R) – 2-9, 80.2 IP, 5.36 ERA, 60 Ks/ 20 walks, 1.41 WHIP

Marlins:
Jazz Chisholm – Following a sub-par 2023 season where the center fielder posted a poor .761 OPS, Chisholm has rebounded from an injury-shortened campaign with a strong spring, slashing .316/.381/.605 in 15 games played. He expects to bat cleanup behind Luis Arraez, Josh Bell and Jake Burger, making for a very top-heavy Marlins lineup.

Pirates:
Ke’Bryan Hayes – Ke’ led the team in hits (21) in spring training while posting a 1.081 OPS and continuing his late-season surge with the bat. Fresh off a long-overdue Gold Glove win this offseason, Hayes is poised to show that he can be above average at the plate over a full season as well.

Marlins:
Jake Burger – Coming over from the White Sox at the trade deadline in 2023, Burger WENT OFF after heading to South Beach, posting a .303/.355/.505 triple slash with 9 home runs and 13 doubles in 53 games with the Marlins. In Spring Training, he didn’t look as good with a 36.2% strikeout rate and a .196/.213/.370 line over his 47 plate appearances.

Pirates:
Rowdy Tellez – Signed this off-season over fan-favorite Carlos Santana, Tellez scuffled with the bat – .650 OPS and only 1 home run in 48 plate appearances in Spring Training – and has been as expected defensively, costing his teammates errors on plays which required a moderate (but not unreasonable) amount of effort from Tellez.

Key Injuries

Marlins: Starting Pitching
Sandy Alcantara (Tommy John Surgery), Eury Perez (elbow), Braxton Garrett (shoulder), Edward Cabrera (shoulder) – Injuries have ravaged the rotation for the Marlins. 2022 Cy Young-Alcantara pitched 184.2 innings over 28 starts last season but was much less successful than his previous season (4.14 ERA vs 2.28 in ’22) and eventually had Tommy John Surgery in October. Perez felt discomfort in his elbow but has resumed a throwing program and his delay to the season is reportedly cautionary to help him build back up after a March 15th shutdown. Similarly, Garrett and Cabrera have also resumed throwing, pitching bullpens earlier this week, but none of these pitchers project to be available in the weekend series.

Pirates: Relief Pitching
Dauri Moreta (Tommy John Surgery), Carmen Mlodzinski (forearm), Colin Holderman (illness) – The pre-season strength for the Pirates has lost one key reliever for the season and two more for at least the first few weeks. Moreta officially had TJS last week, ending his season before it began. Mlodzinski felt discomfort in his right forearm and was shutdown on March 13th. He hasn’t yet begun a throwing program but is likely to begin soon, provided there are no setbacks. Holderman contracted the virus that circulated the clubhouse in Bradenton and it hit him HARD as he lost 15 pounds and ended up in the ER. He is reportedly healthy now and is just working to get himself ready for the season on a slight delay.

Who To Watch

Marlins:
Tim Anderson – The Marlins traded away Jon Berti as part of a 3-team trade earlier this week, opening the door for the team’s only free agent signing this offseason to prove 2023 was a fluke. He has shown the ability to bat over .300 and the potential for a 20/20 season when he can stay healthy.

Pirates:
Andrew McCutchen: Cutch is one home run shy of 300 on his career with a career .532 slugging percentage against southpaws – 95 of his 299 home runs have come against LHP in less than one-third of the plate appearances – and with 4 lefty starters projected for the Marlins this weekend, fans should be on-watch for him to reach this milestone.

2024 All NL Central Futures, Predictions, & Superlatives

3-28-24 – By Corey Shrader – @CoreyShrader on X; Michael Castrignano – @412DoublePlay on X

With the full 2024 regular season about to open today, Thursday, March 28th, I wanted to
put together some NL Central specific predictions. Fellow contributor, Michael, and I will dust off the ol’ crystal ball, toss the I Ching, read the
tea leaves, unsheath the divining rod, etc and put forth our guesses at NL Central
Champions, award winners, and First & Second Team All NL Central teams.

Corey’s Picks:

2024 NL Central Champions: Chicago Cubs
The Cubs seem best positioned at the outset of 2024 so I am selecting them as my pre-
season NL Central winners. They’re returning much of their team from 2023 as well as
bringing in former top prospect, Michael Busch, and Japanese standout Shota Imanaga.
While the division is very close, I think the Cubs boast the most solid MLB core and the
best crop of near-MLB prospects in Cade Horton, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Matt Shaw,
Brennen Davis, Alexander Canario, Kevin Alcantara, Ben Brown, Hayden Wesneski,
Matt Mervis, & Haydn McGeary all in the upper minors.

NL Central Awards
Most Valuable Player: Oneil Cruz
Cy Young: Freddy Peralta
Rookie of the Year: Jackson Chourio
Fireman of the Year: Ryan Helsley
Most Improved: Alec Burleson
Comeback Player: Oneil Cruz

MVP pick is based solely on vibes for me. Perhaps it is wishcasting, but I think we see
the big fella actualize his offensive potential in 2024. This prediction would also have me
double dipping for Cruz to take home Comeback Player of the year as well.
For NL Central Cy Young & ROY I am going to the Beer Makers. Freddy Peralta took a
big leap forward in 2023 and he’s got a chance to exceed those numbers this season.
Freddy is one of the premier strikeout artists in the Central. I think he and Mitch Keller
will duel it out for the NLC Cy Young mantle in 2024. When it comes to ROY, Jackson
Chourio is the chalk pick but it doesn’t seem worthwhile to pick against it. His debut might not be as flashy as the most recent crop (Jrod, BWJ, Carroll, Adley), but he is
more than capable of having that type of impact right away.
A twin pair of RedBirds are set to take down my MIP & Fireman of the Year awards. It is
entirely possible that Burleson cannot hold on to a job long enough to fulfill this one. But
Burleson has had a strong spring and has the runway for an everyday role due to other
injured Cardinals. There has never been much doubt about his ability to hit so it will be
up to him to take a role and run with it. And lastly, Ryan Helsley is my choice for best
RP in 2024. He showed massive potential in his 2 fWAR reliever season in 2022 and
missed a decent chunk of time in 2023 and was still able to throw up a1.5 fWAR. Just a
bet on him remaining healthy and making a run at another 2+ fWAR RP season.
Beyond just award winners, I wanted to take a stab at some “All Division” teams.
Here is how I see these shaking out for the upcoming season:

All NL Central First Team
C: William Contreras
1B: Paul Goldschmidt
2B: Nico Hoerner
SS: Oneil Cruz
3B: Ke’Bryan Hayes
OF: Bryan Reynolds
OF: Christian Yelich
OF: Cody Bellinger
DH/UT: Christopher Morel
SP: Justin Steele, Mitch Keller, Sonny Gray, Freddy Peralta, Shota Imanaga
RP: David Bednar, Ryan Helsley, Adbert Alzolay

All NL Central Second Team
C: Henry Davis
1B: Christian Encarnarcion-Strand
2B: Nolan Gorman
SS: Elly de La Cruz
3B: Nolan Arenado
OF: Seiya Suzuki
OF: Jordan Walker
OF: Jack Suwinski
DH/UT: Willy Adames
SP: Hunter Greene, DL Hall, Steven Matz, Nick Lodolo, Jared Jones
RP: Arolids Chapman, Alexis Diaz, Julian Merriweather

Michael’s Picks

I tried to avoid homerism in my picks but, I will admit, I have a hard time believing in
some of these teams – especially with a run of injuries impacting Devin Williams, Sonny
Gray and basically half of the Reds roster. I don’t think any of the teams (Pirates
included) made the necessary improvements to cement themselves as front-runner for
this division so it’s going to come down to a bit of luck, health and depth in order for a
team to emerge atop the NL Central this year.

2024 NL Central Champions: Milwaukee Brewers

NL Central Awards
Most Valuable Player: Ke’Bryan Hayes
Cy Young: Justin Steele
Rookie of the Year: Jared Jones
Most Improved: Henry Davis
Comeback Player: Oneil Cruz
Fireman of the Year: Aroldis Chapman

Hayes could be the MVP just off his defensive metrics but from August 8 th forward last
year, he posted a .317/.356/.577 slash with a 146 wRC+. Over a full season, that wRC+
would have ranked 9 th best in baseball between Juan Soto and Bryce Harper. He’s
continued that offensive surge this spring and I believe (no, #KELIEVE) that he can
keep it going throughout the 2024 season.
Steele got better K/BB numbers late in the season, living in the zone and got hit a bit
due to fatigue. Don’t think that will be a problem this year. Jones is ELITE! He’s likely
going to get shut down at some point in the season due to innings but if the innings he
throws are with the Pirates, he could make a run at this one.
Davis has shown improvement this spring on both sides of the ball. Not a complete
catcher yet but he underperformed so much last year that he should easily be most
improved for 2024. Cruz is Cruz. If I need to explain, you’re not paying attention.
Chapman had the 2nd best K% (41.4%, behind only Felix Bautista) among all pitchers
with at least 200 batters faced. He’ll walk batters and give up occasional long-ball but
he’s moved to an optimal park and has the best defender in baseball on the left side of
the infield.

All NL Central First Team
C: William Contreras
1B: Rhys Hoskins
2B: Nico Hoerner
SS: Oneil Cruz
3B: Ke’Bryan Hayes
OF: Ian Happ
OF: Bryan Reynolds
OF: Seiya Suzuki
DH: Nolan Gorman
SP: Justin Steele, Freddy Peralta, Mitch Keller, Shota Imanaga, Sonny Gray
RP: David Bednar, Ryan Helsley, Alexis Diaz

All NL Central Second Team
C: Willson Contreras
1B: Paul Goldschmidt
2B: Brendan Donovan
SS: Dansby Swanson
3B: Nolan Arenado
OF: Christian Yelich
OF: Jack Suwinski
OF: Jordan Walker
DH: Andrew McCutchen
SP: Miles Mikolas, Hunter Greene, Jared Jones, Nick Lodolo, Andrew Abbott
RP: Aroldis Chapman, Joel Payamps, Hector Neris

This was a really fun exercise and I can’t wait to look back at these when it is all said
and done and see how close (or awfully wrong) we might have been. Feel free to drop
your own predictions in the comments! Baseball season is right around the corner and it looks like there will be a lot of fun in the NL Central!

Will we be right? Will we be very wrong? Somewhere in between? We’ve got 162 games over a VERY long season to find out. Until then, let us know your predictions as we all enjoy the ride.

Let’s Go Bucs!

Steel City Pirates Q&A – Opening Day Eve!

3-27-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on Twitter

The Pirates roster was settled early in relation to every other Spring in the Cherington/Shelton Era, but that hasn’t eliminated all the questions. Tonight, I’m going to tackle quite a few of yours.

Lets Go.

Question 1

If Paul Skenes does everything that the Pirates need him to do in Indy then when do you think is the earliest we see him in Pittsburgh? – JGor492

Give me your Paul Skenes debut date? – Panther Pride

I guess most people are thinking of this in this fashion. Paul gets in whatever work he’s asked to do, the Pirates pass the first arbitrary date (April 12th) and immediately can call him up to get the extra year of control. By the way, if MLB really wanted to change manipulation, this date is much more painful than 2 weeks, but I digress. Or of course Super 2 because Bob Cheap.

I’m not here to deny he’s cheap, or to say that extra year doesn’t matter, but it’s a fool’s errand to guess beyond those two dates.

I can say Jared Jones should give you hope that those dates sure as hell aren’t always in the way of giving a kid a shot when he’s ready. At least not where the team is now, two years ago, zero chance Jones is in Miami. Now, why not, you want the best of what you got when you think you can win with them, and right or wrong, smart or stupid they think that’s now.

The other thing people don’t like thinking about is that the team probably wouldn’t mind seeing a guy like Ortiz climb back out of the pen, or Quinn Priester to take a step. There’s nothing wrong with that, Quinn has been a top prospect himself, Ortiz is still exciting if he figures a couple things out.

None of them are Skenes, but if it even smells like pushing they’ll quickly pick from the list I just scratched the surface of.

So when? I don’t know, but I’ll tell you one thing, it’s not worth discussing until he’s thrown 5 innings 2 or 3 times in a row.

Question 2

Which of theses players (if any) will be on the roster 1 year from now. Triolo, Peguero, Bae, Gonzales. Assuming Johnson continues to develop. – Jasper Jesterstein

I assume you mean 26-man AKA Active Roster. If so, I’d only guarantee Triolo, he’s the only one I guaranteed prior to Spring too. This season could certainly tell a different story. There’s every possibility Peggy, Bae or Gonzales could be moved, and there’s no guarantee at all they make the big club let alone stick there.

If you meant the 40, I doubt any of them would fall that far on their own, but if Cheng or Johnson leapfrog the group, and both are certainly capable, I’m sure we’ll see them move on from a couple. Probably too early to say quite yet.

Question 3

In the light of the Will Smith extension similar to Ohtani with most money deferred, would it be wise for the Pirates to step into that arena? And do you think more future contracts will be this way, or will a stop be put to them? – Longbeards

I love this question, even if minutes later Longbeards would come to realize that he had fallen for a joke. Still, super interesting thing to look at. The way MLB has this stuff structured, you have to be able to show the money is in an account once a year. Basically you have to be capable of proving you can pay up if you need to.

Bob Nutting is a rich man, but I don’t believe that equals liquidity. He’s worth more than the cash he can quickly come up with in other words. I could see it, but not in mass quantities.

The Dodgers are owned by a hedge fund, meaning all they do is deal in transactions so enough to cover every cent they owe Ohtani is a phone call away and during the time they don’t have to keep it in an account they double or triple the capital in investments.

They are one of the very few teams who could possibly do this to the degree they’ve done it.

Do I think the league will put a stop to it? Well, yeah, but I think this league will eventually have a Salary Cap system, and while you can allow some small deferments and structure it however you like, I can’t see it as sustainable to allow circumventing of whatever structure they would put together that would allow for this level of abuse.

I’d bet on this but Ohtani took all the action already.

Question 4

What is your best and worst case scenarios for this season? This to me in the rare Pirates season where I don’t see, barring something catastrophic, a 90-plus loss campaign lol – Nick Cammuso

Worst case scenario is mass injury, because with mass injury comes not answering questions about who is and who isn’t part of the puzzle here. Say Bryan Reynolds gets hurt, well, that sucks for obvious reasons of course, but it doesn’t prevent you from believing he’s part of this thing, you’ve seen enough to know, and you know they have him signed, same for Hayes, or Keller. Now, if it’s Cruz or Davis, especially early, well, the former gets labeled injury prone and the latter still hasn’t caught a lot and now it’s an open competition with Endy and we’re not sure who will do what.

Starting pitching injuries, especially the UCL variety will change the outlook of just about everything. Keller, Jones, Skenes and you’re right back to hoping the next wave provides, and probably earlier than they should. Yeah, It’s injury.

I’m probably being deeper than you were looking for here. Worst case on the record, assuming general good health, 70 wins, best case I’d probably go no higher than 90, it just feels to me like they’ll probably start out a bit slow on the mound, regardless of any other factor so reaching 90 would involve a ton of really good things happening.

Question 5

Not Pirates specific but what are you feelings towards errors as a stat in the modern game? Should we take them at face value knowing full well they are subjective? What defensive stats would you look at instead? – Patrick Bradford-Kenney

It’s been BS for quite some time. Home scorekeepers will credit a hit on a hard ground ball if the home team’s MVP is up to hit and the fielder booted something he really should have had. You know all the biases in there that take place, there’s a ton of that in baseball, and there always have been. Now we have the benefit of slowing it down and seeing it even more clearly.

It’s one of those things that silently drives every baseball fan nuts, it also tends to even out over a season. At least that’s what players say.

Personally, I go with Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average more than anything. Both of those have issues too, but at least they aren’t based on an arbitrary and quickly made decision made by a biased statistician.

I will say baseball does go back and correct them on occasion, sometimes awarding a hitter a hit or a fielder an error and taking the hit away. I’m sure some slip through the cracks.

It’s not an entirely invaluable stat, you still don’t want to see 15-20 from a guy, because even if they’re wrong sometimes, it’s unlikely a guy is getting screwed that many times.

The best test though sometimes is just the old fashioned eye test I suppose. Like, Hayes had 12 errors in 2022, but he also had 24 Defensive runs saved and if you watched him in 2022, you can’t seriously think he was egregiously better in 2023 when he won the Gold Glove.

Yeah, Defensive Runs Saved, Outs Above Replacement, those are my tops, unless the Error numbers are crazy high.

Question 6

Real basic and simple one, no curve ball or stupid ones like “Why dont they sign Trevor Bauer?!?!” Or “Is Henry gonna go to Triple-A?!?!”. Gary, are you, yourself looking forward to this season? – Neal Kokiko

Absolutely, but I am every year. Ask anyone who’s read my stuff for this whole time. I like progress and as long as they’re making it, I’m typically pretty happy with a fresh season starting.

It’s ramped up this year for sure. It feels wonderful not predicting a losing season for the first time doing this. So yeah, I’m pumped.

Question 7

How many starts for Falter before he gets sent to the bullpen or DFA’d? – FStover1

Maybe 1.

I think he’ll be an opener and probably for Luis Ortiz and even if he survives I could see them have Ortiz open and let him follow next time through. In fact I wouldn’t assume this is more than leaving a spot, telling everyone he’s the starter with no details just in the effort of gamesmanship, not that anyone is going to freak out and sit their lefty bopper because you started Falter, but if they get a one time only advantage of bringing in Ortiz in the second inning to face a lineup built to face a lefty and it never works again, cool.

We’ve seen pitchers get beat up in Spring and then turn it around in the regular season like Jose Quintana, not that I’m assigning that destiny to Falter, but hey, if he does the job, we’ll see.

Really the best thing I can say is, Falter is the low bar, clearly as we start here. Anyone who performs better could replace him and the Pirates don’t need to make any crazy moves to get it done.

So, a week, 2, maybe a month, all of the above.

Question 8

Two parts: do we see Solometo & Chandler with the Bucs this year? If we do, is that a good or a bad thing? – Jack Mycka

Really doubt it with Chandler, they already have enough congestion near the top here, and I can’t see them rushing him like that. Solometo, maybe, I think that would be a bit of a stretch too. If we got to that point, I’d have to say they’d been decimated by injury and if they’re that beaten up you’re looking at a Waiver pickup.

Part of the way they’ve structured this thing is going to require them to pump the brakes a bit on speeding everyone through. Even as we speak we’re potentially looking at congestion building.

Don’t get me wrong, cream will rise to the top and not everyone will make it but you don’t want to force the issue either.

Question 9

Another newbie question from me, hope you don’t mind. What’s considered the hardest field position to play? – Edward Beckham

The best athletes gravitate to Short Stop and Center Field and they’re both difficult, Pitcher is of course insanely hard, but not in the Spirit of what you’re asking. Catcher is easily the most involved. They have to squat for 9 innings every game, hit, run, take foul balls off just about every square inch of their body, study the hitters, receive the ball “quietly” or frame pitches into the zone, and understand his pitcher’s stuff that night, in the moment.

Catchers have in my mind the hardest job, and it’s part of why it takes such a special player to field the position and hit at the same time. That’s a lot to think about, let alone studying how to face the opposing pitchers and keep their own swing mechanics healthy.

I’d say your best athlete is probably your Short Stop or Center Fielder, but the hardest position that isn’t pitching has to be Catcher for my take anyway.

Question 10

Is there a 0% chance or a 1-2% chance the Pirates sign Mike Clevinger (or Rich Hill) or any other unsigned starting pitchers? – Sean’s Ramblings

I don’t believe they have any interest in Rich Hill, and something is up with Mike Clevinger, there are lots of teams desperate to bring in pitching depth and nobody is taking. I also think they have better, well, better bets internally to fill this role and soon. I was all for them getting a pitcher for this rotation that is a sure fire MLB arm, but at this point, let’s just work with what we have, there’s enough options right here and close to just play it out. Adjust at the deadline if you need more.

Question 11

Do you think Keller has fallen too much in love with the cutter and gone away from his sinker? His sinker with high velocity turned his career around. End of last season and ST he is throwing it like 60%. It has caused more walks despite having decent swing and miss rates. – Krid

Oh yes, and he does this every once in a while during the season too. I will say this, his arm has stayed healthy, and he’s done a ton of pitching. Maybe throwing that cutter more and leaning less on the slider or sweeper which is more taxing on the elbow is part of why.

I’m just guessing but when you see a guy do something that obviously doesn’t work as well as what he shows all the time he CAN do, it makes me feel like there’s probably a reason for it that we can’t see.

It could also be StatCast simply not recognizing what pitches are which. He could be just playing with the RPMs on his breaking stuff, or maybe wants to get more velocity versus certain hitters, or who knows, maybe he’s just playing with one pitch in the Spring he really wants to nail.

I will say, Mitch is better when he focuses on his best stuff and sprinkles in the other stuff, that said, maybe he’s trying to make that less so by improving one of his trouble spots. I’m sure it’s a bit of a dance once you get to this level and have some performance under your belt.

Question 12

What will the SP roster look like in July? – Jason Byrnes

I think the Pirates would love that answer to be Keller, Perez, Gonzales, Jones and Falter/Ortiz. You think I’m kidding but teams aren’t just waiting for a name, they won’t kick anyone on this roster out of bed for eating crackers if they’re winning.

Personally, I think we’ll see Keller, Perez, Gonzales, Jones and Skenes. But who the hell knows? Injuries could knock 4 of these guys out. It’s really better to look at the list of possibilities you think could be in play this year and resign yourself to the fact

Question 13

What team do you think will be the biggest challenge for the Pirates to win against, this season? – Brenden Zielinski

Probably the Cubs, in the division anyway. It’s too easy to say the Dodgers or Braves, something like that. The Cubs can hit and at least for a while, outhitting the Pirates might be the best way to beat them. Cubs can, especially in their ballpark.

Truthfully though Brenden, they really should enter every series thinking they could take it, that’s what an over .500 team does.

Question 14

Does Jared Jones actually have a higher ceiling than Mitch Keller? Not that he’d be better NOW, but could he be better in the next few seasons? – Ed Fleming

His stuff says so, but Keller has learned to pitch too. Jones has quite a lot of work to do and room to go before he approaches his ceiling, and honestly, Keller probably has a bit to go for his. Will Jones be a sure fire number 1 or 2 pitcher, well I’d like to think so, but man, I’ve watched a ton of guys with great stuff get taught a lesson by this league and some don’t fight back.

Jones has the makeup of someone who will, but he also has to show a lot of things we haven’t seen. getting deep into games, carrying a full season workload, getting through rotations more than twice.

Keller was at top ten prospect in all of baseball at one point, I’d simply ask you to not forget his journey to get where he is, and remember it’s not all that untypical.

Question 15

What ways can we watch games and see if the game strategy is ‘gelling’ and having a positive effect on the team? – Douglas Smith

If they score 8 games on Thursday and then get 1 hit the next, it’ll remind me an awful lot of what Andy Haines offense looked like in Milwaukee when he had a stable full of horses. Pittsburgh is close to that setup now, and while I’ve heard some acknowledgement from players that they need to embrace small ball here and there to get the most out of their talent, I didn’t see it this Spring.

I still see guys leading off with doubles and not even getting moved to third, let alone scoring. I still see gimacky delayed steal efforts when a fly ball will do.

If the gameplan is homer homer pitch, ok, they need even more power. If it’s get guys on base and hit homers, ok, they better get more power. This team needs to show us their identity before I can wonder if they’re sticking to it.

Positivity to me would be seeing guys make smart decisions at the plate. Move guys over and not just the guys “who can’t hit” but the guys who are supposed to hit homeruns too. Be productive all the time up and down the line and this team will score a bunch of runs more consistently.

I fear it’ll be more like Alika, Triolo, Taylor, Joe, Cutch are supposed to play like that while everyone else swings for the fences, to me, that won’t work, at least not as often as just playing good fundamental baseball.

Question 16

I see a lot of people commenting that German and Lauer are just getting in shape and will be called up as soon as they are ready. I was thinking they were just depth signings. What say you? – Kevin Monahan

Nah, I don’t think it’s that simple. Lauer had an awful year, German is a risk to even have a contract. I think they’ll both have to show something and the Pirates will have to have a clear need. Even so, it better be early because they have other ways to go with much more pedigree.

Question 17

Hypothetically the Pirates are in contention during the trade deadline, who are the potential trade candidates this year such as vets on the last year(s) of their contracts? I know it’ll be based on need then so basically any SPs, RPs, or position players – Jason Dowling

Usually guys who were rumored in the offseason but ultimately weren’t moved are available. So Alek Manoah, Vlad Jr, Luis Robert, Jonathan India, Shane Bieber, Jesus Luzardo, Freddy Peralta, Logan Gilbert, guys like that. How their teams and divisions perform these names could disappear and others could be added. There’s an awful lot that will happen from here to then, for instance, the Pirates could very well find first base as their biggest sore, or maybe a better backup catcher, perhaps for a playoff run they’d rather have a veteran and tested second baseman so Triolo can bounce around.

Any number of things we could be looking at. In fact 4/5 of this division could all be in the or close to the same position, then it might come down to who gives up the most, or who’s willing to anyway.

Question 18

If any starters struggle who do you think will be given a shot in the rotation first? – Don Jacobsen

Kinda covered this, but Ortiz, Priester, Peralta if it’s like next week (struggle won’t be that soon) but if it’s a month from now, Skenes is in play since that’s what you’re probably really wanting to know about.

Question 19

For Q&A. If Cruz continues on a pace to be a 30 HR guy, wouldn’t it make sense to put Cutch back at lead off like last year to put more guys on base for Cruz? Cutch, Reynolds , Hayes, Cruz, Davis, Jack, Triollo, Joe, Taylor Maybe – Wilbert Matthews

I could argue it makes sense right now. Analytics say get your best player the most at bats but the traditionalist in me wants to see him 3rd. Might see them flip flop them vs same handed ness but my guy says we’ll see a ton of Cruz at leadoff.

Question 20

Will Cruz Stay at SS all season. I know you won’t answer – Johnny B Goode

Nah, I’ll answer it, even for an obvious troll like you Johnny. You won’t read it I’m sure, but here goes anyhow.

I have no clue. I know they aren’t going to abandon it in like a month, but this was part of why his injury hurt so bad last year, we didn’t get to answer these questions about his defense.

If he plays this season to a pace of say 18-20 errors, I think he’ll finish the season there for the most part, but they’ll have to have some tough decisions this offseason. Moving him to another position is not going to happen in season, if anything he’d become a DH much more often and again, they’d have to have some tough decisions.

We’ll see, said all the same stuff last offseason.

See you online when you make your sure to be silly remark that I’ll ignore just like always.

Question 21

Pirates have started developing pitchers and middle infielders, but no one has been rising for the OF. Is it lack of drafting or developing them. – Mr. Derf

They’ve hardly selected any honestly. I mean, they have, but the first draft was very short on rounds, then they went very pitching heavy with infielders or catchers. There isn’t a lot of big philosophical reason beyond that.

I wish Matt Gorski or Matt Fraizer came along, and maybe they will yet. CSN for whatever reason they just don’t want to give a run to. Palacios was a stab. Suwinski has turned into something.

Hard to say brother, I know that sounds weird this far in, but I just don’t think they’ve invested much of their talent acquisition outside of international boards anyway. The OF they have brought in are children, so I think we have a ways to go before we decide they can’t do this or that.

What can we learn from Spring Training statistics?

3-27-24 – By Josh Booth – @bridge2buctober on X

Hi. I’m Josh.

I host the Bridge to Buctober Podcast with my brother, Jake. We like to believe that while listening to our show you feel like you’re sitting there hanging out with us. But one thing that happens every once in a while: I like to dig into data.

Let’s get real.
Baseball is a game of statistics. Ignoring how a batter hits on day games after a day off and the temperature over a certain degree is not too “baseball-fan” of us. It’s either fun and meaningless, or there’s just something to the fact that Pedro Alvarez performed well in day games. (over his career, had an OPS sixty points higher in day games.)

When I go down a rabbit hole digging into the data, I want one of two things to happen from that information:

It should either back me up or shut me up.

If you dive in with a closed mind, you will either stop looking, or filter the splits down far enough to feed a narrative. That is not the goal here. Gathering information should always help us understand the game more.

Or it is just fun to know. Learning that the Pittsburgh Pirates franchise has had 4 players hit 20+ homeruns in the same season only ONE TIME (1999) doesn’t help us understand the game. It does, however, give you something to watch in 2024, because there’s a chance this is the second time it happens. We can talk about this again around July or August.
(Giles, Martin, Young, and Sprague all hit 20+ HR in the 1999 season.)

Excuse me? Spring Training stats?

While we are looking forward to all the trends and statistics we will have fun with in 2024, this month we’re creating belief, or disbelief, in a team and players based on Grapefruit League statistics.

Looking at Spring Training stats is something we all say you shouldn’t do… then after the first two weeks, we’re using those statistics to prove a narrative about a certain player being good or bad. One of the fun parts of Spring Training position battles is putting your thoughts into the universe about who you think is winning. In all reality, after each player has played 6-8 games and less than 20 plate appearances, it’s incredibly unlikely to assume that a team has wavered from their initial outlook. They are going to let this thing play out. That doesn’t mean someone can’t impress, but they are just gathering data at that point. Those of us with podcasts and social media accounts made our picks and hot takes, but reality is that there are plenty of games and workouts left at that point.

Speaking of workouts, let’s not dismiss the difference between what fans see vs what the team sees. There are more than games during Spring Training, and a lot more than results goes into making those decisions.

“… human beings play the game, not robots and algorithms.”

I love data. But at my core, I’m still convinced of what I said earlier: they’ll back me up or shut me up. I still hold fast to the idea that baseball is still much deeper than the numbers. I believe that because human beings play the game, not robots and algorithms. People are unpredictable and have multiple layers. And data can’t show us how hard a guy is working or how his off-field life is affecting his performance. This includes Spring Training.

Let’s consider the idea that Spring Training and Regular Season stats come down to a contrast in measurement. In the regular season, results are king. In Spring Training, indicators, or projection stats, might be the focus instead.

Results aren’t king in Spring?

Think of the traditional slash line: AVG/OBP/SLG. (batting average, on base percentage, and slugging percentage)

In spring 2021, Kevin Newman (obvious choice) slashed .606/.641/.788. Those are great numbers.

In the ’21 season, however, Newman slashed .226/.265/.310. We’re not even close. It wasn’t a summer slump that brought him down, either. In Mar/Apr that season he slashed .205/.265/.495. So, right out of the gate, it was evident that the results had changed.

First and foremost, the regular season is the first time pitchers try to get hitters out, rather than working on themselves.

Now, let’s look at some of those indicator stats I mentioned. One I tend to start with is Batting Average on Balls In Play. The league average sits around .300. This removes events like strike outs and homeruns, because those are not hit “in play.” Newman had a .588 BABIP that spring. He was very fortunate to be well above that .300 mark. His BABIP in the regular season was a very low .236. This is why his career numbers fall somewhere in between those numbers. It mostly evens out.

Since 2015, we have had access to Statcast data. Giving us a plethora of fun numbers to argue about. Let’s look at one of the most popular, Exit Velocity. This is, simply, how fast, in MPH, a ball was hit.

So, let’s look at how hard he was hitting the ball. His average exit velocity (EV) during the Spring, in 34 balls hit in play, was 86.3. Not necessarily scorching the ball. In the regular season, this dropped to 83.9mph in 485 balls in play. His overall exit velocity, which includes his 5 HR, was 85.3, which was in the bottom 3% of MLB. League average was around 89.4.

There was enough information that Spring to, at least, say “let’s wait and see how this goes in a larger sample size.”

I do not want to make this about Kevin Newman. But it’s hard to ignore this example.

Opponent Quality

Baseball Reference has an interesting number I like to look at during Spring Training, as well. It’s not perfect, but no stat is.

It is called OppQual, or Opponent Quality. The purpose is to quantify the quality of opposing pitchers or batters faced. Baseball reference calculates this 1-10 number based on the levels their opponents played at in the previous season.
10 – MLB
8 – AAA
7 – AA
5 – High A
4 – Full-Season A
1.5 to 3, Rookie and Short Season
1 – Opposing batter is a pitcher.

Looking at the 2023 Spring Training games, it would be easy to be impressed by Travis Swaggerty (.379/.471/.690), Nick Gonzales (.391/.440/.522), or Carter Bins (.462/.563/.615). When you notice OppQual for those three, respectively, 6.8, 6.8, and 6.7, it shows they were mostly facing their peers around the AA level. Granted, that’s an average. So, it’s possible they raked against lower level and struggled against higher level, or the reverse. We would have to depend on the teams to know that sort of thing or dig into each at-bat and that could take some time.

In the same light, you can look at Ji Hwan Bae and Rodolfo Castro, who faced an OppQual of 7.8 and 7.7, and hit .244 and .226, respectively. But who made the team out of Spring Training? Ji Hwan Bae and Rodolfo Castro.

It’s important to note that the highest average OppQual for any Pirate hitter last Spring was Matt Gorski at an 8.0. Keep in mind, it’s an average. Bae was the highest OppQual of anyone with more than 7 plate appearances.

As you can see, there are a lot of numbers you could look at during Spring Training. Unfortunately, we still don’t even get to see the games as much as we like — those of us who want to break it all down, anyway. Watching them play the game goes a long way. I’ve only gone over offensive statistics, to this point. I mean, c’mon, how much time do we all have here?

2024 SPRING TRENDS

With all that said, let’s look at some trends from this Spring. We will see what can be discovered heading into the season.

Fortunately, there were a few good showings this spring. Henry Davis made sure there was no question he would be the starting catcher in Miami, Jared Triolo clearly won the 2B job, Ke’Bryan Hayes has a lot of us believing he has really figured out the offensive side of his game, Oneil Cruz let the league know he’s back to 100%, and Jack Suwinski showed early signs of lowering a strike out rate while still hitting the ball hard. They were all able to do so while facing team highs in OppQual. Davis 7.9, Triolo 8.0, Hayes 7.8, Cruz 7.7, and Suwinski 8.0.

As I noted above, an OppQual of 8.0 is an average of AAA, but it’s going to be around the highest average you’ll see in spring with any bulk of games played.

STANDOUTS

Henry Davis – 7.9 OQ, .310/.400/.667/1.067, 4 HR, 19.6 SO%, 13.7 BB%, 92.3 EV, 36.4 HH%, 6.1 Barrel%
Davis was a man on a mission. There are guys you just want to get in shape for the season, and guys you want to see do well and break camp with a job. The latter is exactly what the former #1 overall pick did. Facing mostly higher level pitching, he showed a lot of power, tied with Jack Suwinski with 7 XBH on the spring, one behind Oneil Cruz for the most on the team. The exit velocity and barrel rate are good signs heading into the season but paired with a strike out rate under 20% is even better. It’s worth saying, also, that he did so with the highest walk rate of this group.

Triolo – 8.0 OQ, .310/.383/.500/.883, but more on Triolo later. Let’s just say “he was good.”

Hayes – 7.8 OQ, .412/.434/.647/1.081, 3 HR, 11.3 SO%, 95.7 EV, 48.9 HH%
As I said in the opener of this, Hayes showed us all why we believe he’s got this figured out. He is still hitting the ball hard and has combined the right field approach with the ability to pull the ball with authority. Showing signs of a good season, if he can stay healthy, this could be that break out season.

Cruz – 7.7 OQ, .261/.333/.739/1.072, 7 HR, .217 BABIP, 98.7 EV, 23.3 Barrel%, 53.3 HH%
Oneil Cruz. Not Human. I’m not sure what else to say. The man hit 7 HR this spring and they weren’t cheap. Well, there was one possibly aided by wind. A group of the hardest hit balls in the spring, he reminded a lot of baseball fans why we’ve been talking about this guy. Despite a 30% strike out rate this spring, he even suffered from a .217 BABIP. So, the .261 AVG could be a little better if luck goes more his way or he cuts down on some strike outs. See the leaders in Barrels per Batted Ball Event below, Oneil Cruz and Jack Suwinski were among the top.

Suwinski – 8.0 OQ, .269/.296/.558/.737, 4 HR, 20 SO%, .270 BABIP, 41.5 HH%, 14.6 Barrel%
Jack once again showed a bit of a streak this spring, bunching is homers together. However, the biggest signs I can see is that the hard hit balls and barrels are only second to Cruz. He also, probably more importantly, had a 20.4 strike out rate this spring. While the rate was certainly higher against LHP (36%), and MUCH lower against RHP (14%), it’s something he’s intentionally worked on. I have my suspicion that the final number would be between 25-30%, it is still an improvement and he’s still hitting the ball very hard. Which bodes well for another season over the average OPS.

Let’s get back to Triolo. He has always been the #1 candidate for regression based soley on a very high BABIP. There are some metrics that feed into that, like a high barrel rate and hard hit rate. However, even with that in mind, it’s not just high, it’s impossibly high. How long do we keep wondering if it goes down before we accept him to be an outlier? Not yet.

Triolo – 8.0 OQ, .310/.383/.500/.883, 2 HR, .423 BABIP, 90.1 EV, 39.3 HH%, 10.7 Barrel%, 29.8 SO%
The strike out rate is still high but so are the walks. His .423 BABIP is actually a tick lower than Hayes’ .429 but Hayes achieved this with a higher hard hit rate and higher average exit velocity. BABIP is based on balls in play and, well, Hayes put more balls in play. Hayes’ strike out rate was 11.3 while Triolo’s was 29.8. A small sample like .423 is obviously within reach but with everything else combined, it feels like the .310 AVG looks more like a .260-.275 AVG over time. He has some time to start the season with Peguero being sent to AAA and his superior defense. He should still be a productive player this season, with or without a .400+ BABIP.

RESULTS NOT TELLING THE WHOLE STORY

Reynolds 7.7 OQ, .190/.261/.476/.737, 4 HR, .125 BABIP, 13 SO%, 41.7 HH%, 89.9 EV, 16.7 Barrel%, 13.0 SO%
Reynolds is a prime example of a guy who’s just getting his timing and focusing on physical conditioning to get ready for the season. At first glance, he had a bad spring. Looking deeper, he hit the ball hard consistently, popped 4 HR, limited strike out rate to just 13%, and suffered from an extremely low .125 BABIP. He faced quality pitching along the way. Last season, 19 of his 24 homeruns came while hitting left-handed. This spring, 3 of his 4 homeruns were batting right-handed. If anything, I’m optimistic headed into 2024.

Olivares 8.0 OQ, .208/.224/.375/.599, 20.4 SO%, .243 BABIP, 34.2 HH%, 88.4 EV, 2.6 Barrel%
Joe 8.0 OQ, .226/.324/.355/.679, 16 SO%, .240 BABIP, 33 HH%, 0.0 Barrel%

Both Connor Joe and Edward Olivares made this team despite subpar numbers. BABIP is low for both players. Both face quality pitchers. What did they do right?

Connor Joe’s 2023 strike out rate was 23.3%, his rate for the Spring was 16%. His hard hit rate was lower this spring, though; from 41.8 to 33%. The barrel% was non-existent, but just under 7% last season. We know Spring is a small sample, so if the barrels and hard hits increase, even if it means the strike out rate goes up a little, it may normal out that BABIP and have better results.

For Olivares, he seemed to struggle for a large portion of the spring. BABIP was low, HH% was down from last year, Barrel% was low, but his average EV was good. This is likely due to the slow start. It’s hard to increase these numbers in a small sample of less than 50 at bats. If these improve, we should see numbers similar to last season, if not, Joshua Palacios and Ji-Hwan Bae are looking for opportunities, as well.

OVERHYPED

There were a few players who faced lower quality pitchers and hitters and had some success. The thing about the OppQual statistic is that it doesn’t know if those results would have still been good against better opponents.

When it comes to Termarr Johnson and Tsung Che Cheng, fans were impressed. While both had good results here and there, both also were mostly facing their peers. (Johnson 6.4, Cheng 6.5.) Termarr also benefitted from a .500 BABIP.

Chase Anderson
Some were impressed with what Chase Anderson was doing before he opted out and was released. Anderson could have been mostly successful because of who he was up against.

His OppQual was only 6.6. It makes sense that a lot of fans thought adding him was something the Pirates would do, but maybe it was the right call all along to let him sign elsewhere. He threw a heavy dose of changeups, cutters, and four seams. The pitch he relied on the most might have been the one that got hit the hardest.

According to Statcast (which is never complete in Spring Training), 25% of his offerings were hard hit balls and opponents hit .273. The results on his fastball seem odd. Only 8 were hit into play and none were hits. So, 25% of his four seam fastballs were hit hard, but none of them were a hit. Wait… so, 2? Well, yes. Keston Hiura lined out to RF Matt Gorski on a 101.8 mph line drive and Ryan Vilade hit a 95.9 mph fly ball to Gorski in the same inning. He also threw 11 curveballs tracked by Statcast this Spring. 6 balls, 3 called strikes on first pitch curves, an 0-1 foul ball hit 95.7 mph, and a 108.5 mph ground out on a first pitch curve.

I’ll be honest, look up the guys he faced, I dare you to remember more than 25% of them. I did just say that Ryan Vilade was one of them and since he was in the Pirates org last year, he doesn’t count. (Although it’s possible some of you don’t even remember him.) The point is: there is no way to REALLY tell if that success would have translated or not, but according to who he faced and the odd success of certain pitches, it didn’t feel sustainable. The only remaining question is whether you thought he would be a better choice than Bailey Falter, who did make the team.

Every spring, there’s a guy who doesn’t have it. The results are poor against low level opponents.

The first two guys that come to mind here are relief pitchers. The Pirates started the spring with a deep bullpen that looked to be a strength. After Dauri Moreta went down for the season and Holderman and Mlodzinski open the season on the IL, the Bucs will look to see some young guys step up and fill that hole. Two guys, already on the 40-man roster, come to mind: Colin Selby and Kyle Nicolas. While the latter still has some serious upside, the former looks to be one of the casualties of the non-roster invites who made the team.

Selby’s OppQual was only 6.3. In his 4 innings (small sample, I know), he walked 4, gave up 2 HR, and 5 ER – with a 2.750 WHIP. He did strike out 4 guys. Cam Eden and Nathan Lukes from Toronto, Ryan McKenna of Baltimore, and Keshawn Ogans of Atlanta. Ogans hasn’t played above High A, McKenna has a .221 AVG in 447 MLB at bats over the last 3 years, Lukes made his debut last year and hit .192 in 29 G, and Eden made his debut last year and hit .167 in 6 PA. There are not a lot of Statcast numbers for a guy who threw 4 innings, but the reason for 4 innings may have been his 4 innings. There’s a lot to work on there.

Nicolas faced an OppQual of 6.5 and pitched to a 2.250 WHIP (8.44 ERA) in 5.1 innings. His first outing was his worst, giving up 3 runs in 1 frame, striking out 2 and giving up a HR. He managed to use the strike out to get out of some jams he put himself in. His next four innings: H+BB, 2 H, 2 H+BB, 2 BB. He did strike out 6, but too many baserunners. All while considering the batters he was facing weren’t MLB players. That first outing saw 2 singles by Yoyner Fajardo and Alex Isola and a homerun by Dalton Shuffield. 3 players with a combined 48 AB in AAA. (All 48 by Shuffield) While he struck some MLB hitters out, as well, the overall mix was mostly younger players. You would like to see better from a guy who has a fastball-slider combo that should eventually be good enough for a big league reliever.

IN CLOSING

Spring Training data is always difficult to parse through. It’s all small sample, there’s not Statcast at every stadium, and the goal of the individual can be different.

The season starts this week and the stats count. Players will be going 100% with the intent to win games. I am looking forward to watching this team grow and see how far they can take the 2024 season. I am also looking forward to digging into the data and analyze the trends that help us tell the story of our summer.

Thanks for nerding out with me for 10-15 minutes. Now let’s play ball… and LET’S GO BUCS!

Steel City Pirates – 2024 Season Preview

3-26-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

Every year since we launched this site we’ve published our season preview, usually build with Craig Toth and I bantering back and forth, and I considered doing that again this year with one or more of the other writers here on staff. Ultimately though, we’ve all got our own shows to put content into, we’ve all got our own ideas on angles to cover and it just made more sense to leave this entire piece in my voice alone.

it’s also the first time (**Spoiler Alert**) I won’t be predicting a losing season since I started writing, which is super nice for me.

The Pirates roster is finally final, let’s start there and move the discussion along naturally.

The 2024 Pirates Opening Day 26-Man Roster

Make no mistake, this won’t be the roster they finish with, in fact, in a normal season you’ll see upwards of 50 players at some point. The more mature your team becomes, providing health of course, the fewer the number of variables. That said, this is where we’re starting.

For the second straight year, I’m saying loud and proud you’ll like this team better in September than you do right now, difference being, there’s more to like than there was at the beginning last year.

The Starting Rotation (5)

Mitch Keller – Use the Ace tag if you must, but no matter what you call him, Mitch is the most experienced and in his prime starter the Pirates have. Until I see him perform differently, I’ll pencil him in for a healthy campaign that looks a lot like it did last year. A solid effort, easily in the top 15 or so starters in baseball.

Martín Pérez – Martín was an All Star in 2022, and a forgotten man pushed off to the bullpen on the 2023 World Series Champion Texas Rangers. Most of his outings tend to look very good, but he’s been victim to the blowup game here and there. It balloons his overall numbers and masks the type of pitcher he looks like most of the time. There is every reason to expect he’s a solid performer in 2024.

Marco Gonzales – The lefty starter is coming off an injury plagued season and that’s the first question, can he stay on the field? Quickly followed of course by can he recapture the steady performer he was before all this. We’re talking about a guy who has pitched on opening day for Seattle previously. From the first pitch he throws through the last pitch he tosses as a Pirates player, we’ll probably be concerned about those two things.

Jared Jones – The first MLB Top 100 pitcher to break camp with the Pirates since Kris Benson in 1999, Jared Jones earned this in every conceivable way. Don’t get me wrong, I’m stoked to see it, but the Pirates damn near made this have to happen for some kid by bringing in as little as they did. His stuff is electric, but he doesn’t have a history of lasting all that long in games, nor has he thrown more than 126 innings in a season. The Pirates are going to have to be careful here, and I’m not trying to sound like an overprotective parent, but one thing I know about this kid, he’ll never say he’s tired, the team just needs to know better, he’s too important.

Bailey Falter – Move over Alika, Bailey will take a few beatings for you. He’s the starter, but listen, they aren’t just gonna let him fail over and over again. They do have options, I mean, he doesn’t, but the team does. Luis Ortiz could perform in the pen and get moved back to this role, Josh Fleming possibly could. They have Priester, Lauer, German, Peralta, even Skenes before too long. Point being this isn’t going to drag on for months, Cherington himself alluded to the harsh reality that they may have to lose some battles early on to win the war. I’d argue they don’t “have” to, but they did set themselves up for it. What he’s getting at is they may have to run with some things that are less than ideal as a bridge to the reinforcements. Again, they made their bed, this is why we kept saying they needed to get another Starter, and not a recovering drunk or sorta used to be maybe could be again type. But I digress. The moral of the story is Bailey won’t be allowed to just rot on the vine and spoil the wine for the entire team. It’s hard to do, but I’ll leave room that he finds a path to productivity in some capacity. Lefties are weird and sometimes something as small as a release point tweak takes them from batting practice to unhittable.

The Bullpen (8)

David Bednar – He’s still the closer, but his Spring was very abbreviated with his LAT issue. A minor issue by all accounts and the team thinks he’ll be fine. I still believe they’ll try to take it easy on him, so don’t expect to see him go back to back a whole lot early on. Maybe don’t expect him to be firing on all cylinders from the jump, not that he’ll acknowledge anything isn’t 100% if asked.

Ryan Ryder – Non-Roster Invitee, Ryan Ryder is a sinker baller, an element the team felt they lacked without Colin Holderman. someone who could come in and get that big ground ball. It’s probably going to take some time to start entering games in leverage situations but he did have a quite nice Spring, so I have no reason to expect he is incapable.

Roansy Contreras – I believe it’s Andrew Chafin who walks around in a T-shirt that says “Failed Starter” on it. See, some guys accept the role with a smile, others take it as a slap in the face and never let go of what they want or “deserve” to be. This role could really suit Roansy, he can cut down to the pitches that work for him and not worry about going through the order twice. Not holding back on velocity to make it longer into games could help him reach the heights of his velocity he used to. Make no mistake though, just like Falter, the Pirates won’t allow Roansy to hurt this team, with no options he’ll get time but it isn’t infinite.

Ryan Borucki – Incredible numbers last year for the lefty, frankly, numbers I strongly doubted he could repeat, but because baseball is baseball and being wrong is just as much a pastime as the game itself, he’s shown up looking just as nasty. Guys just can’t see what he’s throwing, there’s something there, and next to nobody will mention he was a complete and utter “dumpster dive”, you know, a waiver claim. They don’t work often, but every once in a while, you find a gem, here’s hoping Borucki is the next one. Should be noted, He’s a unrestricted free agent next year. If they like him, they have to do something to keep him. My guess is though, enjoy him this year.

Aroldis Chapman – I’m not going to teach you anything about Chapman you don’t already know. He throws 99-102, has devastating off speed stuff, gives you 50+ innings and can hold it down on the back end in case the normal closer is having issues with his own back.

Josh Fleming – He’s spent his entire career in Tampa Bay, as a pitcher, and in Tampa for most guys anyway, that means you’ve started games, come in as a reliever and probably scrubbed toilets once a week, with your non pitching arm mind you. I personally think he has a history of walking too many guys but we’ll see, he did well this Spring and like I just said with Borucki, you never know which pan holds that flake of precious metal. Fingers crossed, sure do need him to be ok early on at least.

Hunter Stratton – Hunter was DFA’d at the beginning of the offseason, but he put in the work after that. He’s 27 years old and was selected in the 16th round of the 2017 draft. This is a system guy for the Pirates and all he’s done is eat innings in the pen in AA and AAA for the past 3 seasons. He earned a call up last year to Pittsburgh and performed fairly well in 12 innings of work. He looks different though this year, and keep in mind, this is a guy I’ve watched pitch at the AAA level now for 3 years, but the ball is coming out of his hand cleaner than I recall and the stuff is getting more swing and miss than it usually does. This may have been because of IL issues, but he may not give up his spot easily.

Luis Ortiz – Bulk guy as Cherington puts it. Could mean he’s a starter who they think needs an opener, could be the new lingo for long man. Ortiz probably isn’t done being a starter in his mind or the team’s but his stuff should play in the pen well. Becoming a reliever isn’t a failure, unless you let it make you one.

The Starting (9)

DH Andrew McCutchen – It’s no joke to say Andrew is the heartbeat of this team, but this year for whatever reason, even more than last year, he seems to be smelling the flowers, embracing that he needs to drink it in and you can just hear it in his voice in interviews, he knows the days of playing a game for a living are coming to a close. He may play another season, but this one is his best chance to be a big part of a team, his role almost has to be reduced next year should he continue. Homerun 300 will be his next, eyes peeled.

C Henry Davis – Your Pittsburgh Pirates Starting Catcher is none other than Henry Davis. Man, that escalated quickly for those of you who refused to believe your eyes and instead parsed every word any team official said all offseason. He put in the work, and he will handle it well. The trick for Henry will be not wearing down, to his credit he’s tried to pack on the weight and muscle it’ll take, but weak legs at the end of the season are a damn near guarantee.

1B Rowdy Tellez – He’s not the first baseman you wanted, but the market was thin and for what it’s worth he seems like a very good fit for the room. I still can’t help but feel they should have done a bit more here but they really seem to believe they’ve not just got a good shot at some production here, they got the guy they wanted. We’ll see. If the power doesn’t click, I’m afraid there just isn’t much left to hope for with him, it’s not like he’s gonna walk 120 times and steal 40 bases and the glove is only going to get so good.

2B Jared Triolo – Peguero’s illness was unfortunate but Jared every bit earned this. People will keep questioning his BABIP, but nobody will care if he’s producing and helping to stabilize the right side of the defense. With his frame, power could come, but it doesn’t have to for him to be successful. After all if power were everything, Gonzales or Peguero might have won the spot themselves.

SS Oneil Cruz – Kid looks like a monster. I don’t know what else to say, lets just watch him put together a full season and then we can stop guessing about how great he could be. Let’s be serious for a second though, a healthy season means something else, he gets this year to prove he’s an MLB Short Stop. Yes, I think he CAN do it, but the fact is, he hasn’t, at least not well enough. Throws need to stop being adventures to second or first. Footwork around the bag needs to get cleaned up and while his range is insane, he needs to make it count a lot to make up for the routine stuff he struggles with. In other words, I want to head into this offseason knowing Cruz is or isn’t this team’s Short Stop, and if he isn’t, I’d like to have an idea where they plan to try to use him. Before you tell me what you think, I honestly don’t care about your thoughts here any more than my own, this is a question this team and Oneil need to answer, not us. Answers his injury robbed us of last year.

3B Ke’Bryan Hayes – Hayes is officially a gold glove third baseman. He was before he got the award too, and now he looks primed to deliver on the offensive side as well. His late season tweaks look to have stuck, all he did is kill it all Spring long at the plate. Homeruns pulled, oppo, patented line drives up the middle or through the 4 hole, a Hayes that hits like a middle of the order batter is invaluable for the fortunes of this team.

RF Bryan Reynolds – He’s had a slow Spring. If he hit the baseball it left the yard, but mostly he just kinda was there. Turns out he’s been dealing with some middle back issues which explains why he didn’t play much especially near the end of the Grapefruit League. Bryan just kinda needs to be Bryan, here’s hoping, because Bryan is pretty damn good at baseball. It would appear he’ll be primarily in Right field, which kinda came out of nowhere, but the team claims they planned the move before they signed Michael Taylor.

CF Michael A. Taylor – Gold glove centerfielder who can pitch in offensively here and there. The prototypical 9 hitter will make the Pirates defense much better regardless of who are on his corners. Don’t expect much with the bat and you’ll be pleasantly surprised when you get something. Expect everything with the glove and you still might be underselling it.

LF Jack Suwinski – The power is real. He’s shown he has a very good eye at the plate. And this Spring he’s shown he’s not just going to stand there and take strikes on the outside corner. I’m interested to see what this does to the way pitchers approach him over time. If they start busting him in I think he’ll mash mistakes but we need to see if he starts looking for it and reverts from going after that outside pitch. If he evolves, he’s an every day player, maybe even an All Star someday, if he doesn’t, he’ll be a guy you play because he can hit them out but could find himself slipping into a platoon role over time. Big year for Jack.

The Bench (4)

C Jason Delay – Prototypical backup catcher, and before you get mad about it, you’ll probably see him catch a bit more than a backup typically would. they aren’t just going to jump into Henry catching 5-6 games a week. This will have nothing to do with lacking trust in Henry, but saving his legs.

UTL Connor Joe – He’s going to play all over the place. Outfield, first base, hell I bet we see him at second here and there. You could do worse than Connor for a bench player, much worse in fact.

OF Edward Olivares – I truly believe he was beaten out by Billy McKinney but the Pirates had to burn too many 40-man spots filling the bullpen out after the injury bug struck. That doesn’t mean there’s nothing there with Olivares, it just means he wasn’t as in your face locked in as McKinney.

IF Alika Williams – Everyone’s favorite punching bag. Williams will play the role of defensive substitute, and giver of rest to the Pirates towering regular short stop. He never had offensive output that mattered until AAA last year, and it hasn’t translated to the Bigs in any way. Reality is his ceiling is only so high, despite where he was drafted. Unless something major clicks with him, he’s got a long way to go to climb out of a bench role anywhere, let alone stay on an MLB roster.

Starting on the IL

RP Carmen Mlodzinski – 15 Day IL – Forearm tightness is always scary, but Carmen is already back to throwing and apparently cleared to continue.

IF/OF Ji-hwan Bae – 10 Day IL – He’s back to doing everything baseball, now its about playing the game, getting at bats and, well, having a hole on the roster open up.

RP Colin Holderman – 15 Day IL – He caught the flu that was going around and got it bad. He spent time in the hospital and lost 15 pounds. He’s throwing, just needs to recover the rest of the way and build back up.

C Yasmani Grandal – 10 Day IL – Being reevaluated for ability to run. Apparently he’s doing everything else, but we’ll see. Plantar fasciitis is no joke, maybe they caught it early enough, maybe that doesn’t matter.

MLB Debuts We Could See

SP Paul Skenes – MLB’s first pick in the 2023 Entry Draft will almost undoubtedly make his debut this year. he’s too involved, and the need it soo great for what he does to see it any other way. Major injury or major underperformance are just about all that can hold this back.

IF Tsung-Che Cheng – He was already an up and comer, but his inclusion on the 40-man roster this year to protect him from the Rule 5 draft set this on a collision course. Past Alika Williams, he’s arguably the Pirates best SS prospect as it comes to fielding, and beyond Termarr Jonnson he probably has the best looking bat.

SP/RP Braxton Ashcraft – This kid has a huge arm, his problem has really been his health. It’s never really allowed him to build up into a full blown starter. I think we’ll see the Pirates keep working with him to start but he may be a good candidate to give this club some relief innings. As with Cheng, he was protected and the Pirates have shown us countless times now, if they protect you, they think you’re going to be ready for MLB that very year.

SP Mike Burrows – Mike was humming before he had to go under the knife last year. On track to debut and probably have a shot at meaningful innings, maybe even a run of starts at the MLB level. His injury forced the team to call on Quinn Priester earlier than they wanted to…well, they could have remedied that in other ways too, but let’s just say, Quinn doesn’t act as a living pinata more than a couple times if Mike was healthy. May see the team use him in a relief role too, almost more as a part of his recovery than an indication of his future.

How’s the Division Going to Shake Out?

For starters, this division is going to be tight. Top to bottom could be separated by as few as 12 or 13 games. So when I say someone finishes in second, keep that in mind.

I’ll go in this order…

Chicago
Pittsburgh
Milwaukee
Cincinnati
St. Louis

Don’t get hung up on the how here, just remember I think top to bottom 12 or 13 games different. And I think the Cardinals are the worst pretty easily. So that top 4 could be as few as 6-8 games apart.

I think we’re looking at a genuine fun race, and not just for us, the whole division, well, except the Cardinals, I think they took hits right where they couldn’t afford and weren’t set to be that good to begin with.

How About Some General Predictions?

Who doesn’t love these? Things you can hang me with later for being dumb, I mean if you aren’t gonna risk being a dummy what the hell are you even doing blogging?

Oneil Cruz will hit 35 homeruns.

Andrew McCutchen gets 300 out of the way and has Roberto in the realm of possibility should he play in 2025.

Pirates finish top 15 in the league in homeruns.

Brubaker returns form IL, pitches relatively well and is tendered arbitration for 2025

Matt Gorski gets the Bligh Madris treatment in 2024, he gets the call and makes his debut

Pirates Rookie of the Year Will Be Jared Jones

Mitch Keller is good but not in the top 10 for Cy Young.

Martin Perez is a National League All Star.

Oneil Cruz will win Comeback Player of the Year

Ji-hwan Bae or Nick Gonzales are traded in 2024.

Record Prediction

Drum roll…

84-78

It’s not the 16 game improvement last year was, but much like losing weight, the first 15 or so are pretty easy, it’s the next 10-15 that get you.

I think the Pirates will finish this year stronger than they start it so I could see this prediction looking really dumb as late as July, before coming on and coming close to taking the division.

Vegas has the over/under set at 75.5 so clearly I’m taking the Over. The team cracks .500 for just the 5th time since 1992 and open the window for the next several campaigns.

Position Group Preseason Grades

I like to grade these position groups as it relates to the league, An F is obvious failure, C of course is average, and A is top notch, maybe top 5 in the league.

Outfield – B- I give them a B-minus because their defensive upgrade signing could also knock them back a notch at the plate. They’re a nice unit, but probably not near the top.

Infield – C+ I’m pleased with Hayes and Triolo defensively and I love the offensive possibilities but I can’t hide from how I believe Cruz and Tellez will be defensively. Overall, this unit at the very least has questions.

SP – C – I’m confident this grade will go up, but at the beginning here, c’mon, it is what it is.

RP – B This would have been an A if Holderman and Mlodzinski were healthy and Bednar was more prepared. This could still be the strength of the team, but at the beginning, it surely isn’t.

C – B+ I like the depth, I like the veteran backing, I love the rookie who will get the lion’s share of time. Best setup the Pirates have had behind the dish since Cervelli was here.

Coaching Overview

This has to be a big year for Andy Haines and Oscar Marin. Both are being given tools they’ve not had, and both will be expected to get something out of all that talent. Yes, it’s on Derek Shelton to deploy them properly, but Andy Haines can’t have this collection of hitters and find the team lower than 15th in every measurable category that helps score runs.

Marin will have some real big pieces and some established pieces in his garage, and to be frank, he can’t miss. Pitchers like Jones and Skenes can’t look like they might not stick and see this pitching coach survive.

Shelton himself is really in no trouble, I know, I know, you don’t like that, but it’s true, he’ll be the manager entering 2025 almost regardless of how they look. Everything I know tells me they’d dump the assistants before considering moving on from Shelton.

Conclusion

All in all, I think we’re in for a competitive division race and a team capable of competing daily for a win. I’m not sure we’re to the point where the boys show up to the yard expecting to win, but I’m positive we’re to that place where they know it’s on the table every time out.

I caution you to not get too caught up in this opening 26-man and forecast out what this exact mix of players might add up to, I just don’t think it’ll look like this all year or even most of it.

Most of if not all the division could be in the mix as late as July or August this year and it’s going to force every team to decide at the deadline, are we in or are we out? Begrudge the Pirates payroll and what they brought in during free agency, they certainly deserve it, this division is right there for the taking and in my mind one top tier starter could have tipped them over the edge, but to them that may very well be Paul Skenes or even Jared Jones, so I have no choice but to reserve judgement and let it play out.

I ultimately think the Pirates farm is deeper than the rest of the division, maybe not as many top 100 guys, but a whole lot more who are close than anyone else. this should afford the Bucs the ability to patch holes and fortify themselves for the stretch run, now we just got to get them there looking like it’s plausible that a few pieces will get them there.

I’m looking forward to this season, and not just from my nerdy team building perspective, I actually think this is a really fleshed out competitive core, ready to see some high end finishes bolted on before having a big open house.

See Yinz at the Ball Park!

Five Pirates Thoughts at Five – That’s a Wrap on the Grapefruit League

3-25-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

The Roster is set, and we’ll talk all about it in detail when I release the Steel City Pirates 2024 Season Preview tomorrow. I can’t avoid touching on some of it today but I’ll have individual thoughts about every player selected along with a whole bunch of fun prediction stuff we can all chew on and hold up as examples of my stupidity. I did get the record prediction right last year but it sure as hell didn’t come about in the way I envisioned.

That’s the fun of doing all these things, everyone has a vision of how they see everything going, some of us are just dumb enough to publish it.

Let’s Go…

1. Early 40-man Crunch

Carmen Mlodzinski and Colin Holderman starting on the IL, along with the decision to start Jared Jones on the 26-man roster immediately create a need to clear 3 spots.

Ali Sanchez will be one and bluntly, the next two fans would want Bailey Falter and Alika Williams, will both make the team, partially in response to all this illness and injury. I’ll talk more about Alika in the next entry but had Peguero not been bitten by that nasty flue bug, I have to imagine he would have started on the roster instead of Alika.

Ryder Ryan and Hunter Stratton benefit directly and get an opportunity, probably helped Bailey Falter hold onto a spot too.

You’d hate to burn depth and roster spots over short term absences from regulars you expect back, as it is, they’re going to have to cut loose one or two guys they planned to keep in reserve.

Decisions are made with an eye toward getting a group through 162 games, not the first week. Burn a guy like Wily Peralta now and you won’t be able to send him back, so when they call on a guy like him or Lauer or even German, it’ll be because they have a long term need, not someone recovering from the flu.

It’s rarely as simple as this guys is better than that guy, unless all the other factors involved are the same.

I think it’s fair to assume all of this 40-man jockeying cost Billy McKinney a shot to crack the roster over Edward Olivares, so it’s not just a pitching story.

That doesn’t mean you have to like Falter being a starter, I don’t either, but it could very well set up for a rather quick call of Skenes, German, Lauer, Peralta, or even Ortiz winding up right back in there. Lots will change as the year plays out. You can’t think Jones is here cause they want to win and Falter is here cause they don’t care. Bottom line, they didn’t add enough to start April with a solid 5.

2. There Will Always Be a “Josh VanMeter”

I have a feeling we already have elected this year’s member of the JVM Memorial Award for Least Wanted Player, and at least to start, it’s Alika Williams. If and when the Pirates demote him we’ll hold a new election of course. The player that replaces him will be an absolute fan darling for at least a couple weeks, and we’ll have a new one selected before Alika has even cleaned out his locker.

This is human nature more than it is even fandom. In fact, it’s the reason everywhere you’ve ever worked there is that one guy or lady “everyone” hates.

I covered the other day some very real reasons why Alika Williams makes the team and Liover Peguero doesn’t. The more I’ve looked into it since, the more Peguero’s illness makes the most sense. The Pirates have started letting stories leak about this illness, like Colin Holderman who lost 15 pounds and was hospitalized while dealing with it.

The Pirates could at least dispel the whole Alika is better than Peguero train of thought that some of you will never escape no matter what evidence is presented by simply addressing the lingering weakness those recovering from the sickness have experienced. How many guys were behind the scenes shut down from doing anything, let alone getting game ready, we’ll probably never fully know the full scope and lingering COVID rules for not discussing guys situations with viral stuff still seems to be part of the protocol all around the league.

Williams is a great fielder and I sincerely doubt he’ll ever carry a stick that makes him more than Rafael Belliard. He’s a great fielder who plays a position in which the starter Oneil Cruz has quite a bit to prove.

Times have changed for sure, but I don’t remember hating Chico Lind, or Belliard, or John Cangelosi, Clint Barmes ya know? Now, maybe it’s just that social media wasn’t a thing and you were sitting at the bar throwing bottles against the wall every time someone who was for sure glove first and weren’t going to hit much got a shot. Either way, I’d prefer to just understand the roster will never have more than 26 players, but we’ll somehow see them use 40 or even 50 players to finish 162.

They’re all Pirates, and I can’t see spending the energy hating everyone who isn’t a nailed on starter in this league. That shiz happens everywhere.

Fan however you want, that’s your call, just don’t expect me to camp on. I can advise they should be sent down for someone else. I’ll talk about minimizing how much they play, accentuate ways they could best use his skillset situationally, but overtly acting like the team is tanking every time he gets an at bat, yeah, that’s not me. Have fun.

3. The Strength of the Team?

The Bullpen was set to be the strength of this team, a reason the starting rotation could afford to be less than stellar early on as they waited for young reinforcements to arrive, but sickness and injury has changed that mix.

On the back end they have Chapman and Bednar, but David has only thrown twice this Spring, and hasn’t looked particularly sharp in them. I expect Holderman and Mlodzinski being out will cause the team to lean a bit more on Ryan Borucki toward the back end and maybe Ryan Ryder will have to serve as the ground ball specialist.

It’s shaky at best to have a pen with Roansy Contreras and Luis Ortiz in there, but maybe having them cut loose will change them from the pitchers we’ve seen into something resembling a bullpen arm. Maybe they work back to starting too. They could go 50 different ways with these guys.

Either way, it’s not the lock down unit we envisioned….yet.

It’s still not a “bad” bullpen, but it’s not a bullpen you should plan to ride and early on, most teams regardless of their construction will have no choice. Starters won’t be fully stretched before at least the middle of April, so truth be told, you’d almost prefer to start with a fully loaded pen than get there slowly.

4. Barring Injury, Paul Skenes Will Debut in 2024

There’s nobody hiding it, in fact Ben Cherington just laid out that expectation on MLB Network today.

Jared Jones starting right out of camp should tell you winning this year is more important than ensuring an extra cheap year. Believe it or not, this will come down to how he acclimates to the pro schedule, how he handles the very small list of boxes they’ve asked him to check and ultimately, how the big club is doing. Sounds crazy but if the Bucs are getting good production from their rotation, it’s not like they’ll just DFA one of them.

It’s not so much that the Pirates have changed their philosophy, it’s that the team wants to pry open that damn window, and you don’t do that without a crowbar and maybe even breaking some glass.

5. Henry is Indeed the Starting Catcher

Hate to say I told you so….

Nah, I’m happy as hell to tell you I told you so. Henry has looked every bit the part this Spring, both at the plate and behind it. All the nonsense about him not being able to catch, gone.

All the nonsense about him starting in AAA, gone.

All the idiocy of him being Grandal’s backup, gone.

Henry earned this and he got some help along the way, first and foremost Endy Rodriguez having UCL surgery opened the door. Grandal being 35 and visually not all that good on top of not being healthy made it even easier a path, but at the end of the day nothing helped more than Henry himself working his ass off.

I can’t begin to express how different he looks from the kid I watched catch in Greensboro. I have a hard time describing how incredibly difficult it is to improve that much in one off season.

Any team can hit on a 1:1 pick but this team has selected two who have different makeups. These aren’t just good players, these are two kids who want to lead, want to be the best, not good enough, and more than anything, they want to win, right here, right now.

I’ve got a ton of writing to do to get this season preview done, so let’s keep this one shorter than normal and call it a day.

Enjoy the next couple days, Thursday is gonna be a blast. Special episode of the Pirates Fan Forum goes live Thursday Night at 9 PM EST!

Will Henry Davis Make the Team?

3-23-24 – By Gary Morgan – @garymo2007 on X

My god, yes.

The Pirates made a statement way back at the beginning of Spring, maybe a clumsy statement, maybe even stupid about Yasmani Grandal making the team and the Pirates having a competition for the second spot.

I can’t believe I’m doing this, AGAIN, but maybe I should, after all, even the real journalists have done their best to make sure you were filled with as much dumb as they possibly could on the subject.

Here is Shelton’s quote from way back at the beginning of Camp.

“Yaz is going to catch. Yas is also 35 years old, so whoever our C2 is is going to get some time. We have to be very mindful of when he catches and how much he catches, mindful of making sure we get the second guy in there in a situation that we like all the time.” Shelton said.

Let’s break this down the way you’d like to think someone not trying to mislead people would.

Yaz is going to catch. – Holy crap, so you’re telling me the free agent catcher you just signed at the age of 35 might just make the team? Of course he’s going to get one spot.

Yas is also 35 years old, so whoever our C2 is is going to get some time. – So Yaz, the 35 year old is going to not be able to catch enough to render the second catcher unimportant.

We have to be very mindful of when he catches and how much he catches – How many ways do you need to hear they aren’t confident they’ll get a ton of games out of this guy you think is being named the starter for the season somehow.

Mindful of making sure we get the second guy in there in a situation that we like all the time. – The second guy. C2, C1, look at all the hoops to avoid using words like starter or backup. Back when these comments were made, you’d think of course they’re unsure of Henry back there, they want to see more, no guarantees needed made here.

Jason Mackey from the Post Gazette put out a little synopsis snippet from Spring Training.

Listen to it if you like but the key here is, it’s Jason’s opinion, specifically, not him reporting something he heard, not something someone told him on the sly, his opinion that he “gets the impression they wouldn’t be afraid to start Henry in AAA”. He says this right after saying the Pirates would hope the outcome would be that Henry hits and catches well and makes the club.

There’s nothing wrong with what Jason said here, or his opinion. It’s what was done with this snippet and that quote since that have been.

It got run with like Henry was ticketed for AAA (Dumb Pirates amiright), sure, maybe he has a chance to fight his way past their stupidity is the impression the wise bloggers/podcasters and sadly yes, even Journalists with a big J shoved at fans for weeks.

Even as Grandal has been too injured to play, and Henry has looked every bit the part behind the dish and at the plate.

Even as pitchers have talked about how much better he was than the catcher they worked with the year before.

Even as the team had opportunities to clear it up and chose to be still too weak wristed to accomplish it, because to the crusaders of misinformation out there, the only acceptable answer would be Henry is the starter, he’ll play 145 games, and this team is simply not trying to set expectations for work load.

Listen.

Henry Davis is the starting catcher on this team, but he being a rookie is not likely to catch much more than 100-120 games. It takes a long time to master the position, and it takes almost just as long to train your body to hold up to the rigors of what it takes along the way.

You’ve all heard power comes from the legs right? Well, try doing it while catching 140 games for the first time in your life. how far you think he’d be able to hit that juicy fastball down the pipe on game 129?

This whole thing was creating drama where there was none. Believing he won’t make the team now is simply ignoring everything you’ve seen and taking the same bait that catches you every year, the low hanging fruit that people fish with for clicks that if it can be done, and it’s dumb, of course the Pirates are doing it.

Wise up and meet your new starting catcher, some call him Hank.

Or wait for your preferred “information provider” to tell you. When they do, you’ll hear them tell you how Henry “changed their minds” or Grandal being hurt “forced their hand”, but step back from it for a minute and ask yourself, can I name one thing the Pirates would gain by doing that?

Really, what’s to be gained?

Has anyone who’s tried telling you Henry, starting in AAA was a real possibility after the first week of camp where he showed he was more than capable or playing the position, makes sense? Anyone? Anywhere?

Of course not. Because the ONLY reason for it would be, Pirates Dumb.

They have been in the past no doubt, I can point to things right now I think are dumb, know what else I can always find when I do? Yeah, motive.

This team does a ton of dumb, they don’t need help, especially when it doesn’t take all that much thought to dispel it.

This…

Yeah, that’s your starting catcher. Sheesh.